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In reply to: golfnut on Thursday 11/05/06 11:19am

Hi Golfnut,

 

I don't want to write a history lesson, so suffice to say that that expectation of the share price was based upon projections from the company that certain events and drilling programs would happen. Remember Welder Ranch, and SGT amongst others. If the company had kept it's program on time 50 cents would have been long since past.

 

Things have changed.

 

I have made a small adjustment to a portfolio which was over weight on FAR. That's all.

 

Don't loose the plot for my sake.

 

I fully expect FAR to go on to greater and better things and I will be there.

 

Cheers...............M.

 

 

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In reply to: mangrove on Thursday 11/05/06 11:34am

Mangrove, http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/rolleyes.gif

 

Like Golfnut, I too have never understood this logic.... If it's going to increase, why...???

 

Cheers

dg

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In reply to: IGO4IT on Thursday 11/05/06 12:28am

Looks like the shareprice is settling down now but i could'nt help but think of IGO41T's post from last night Quote--" this is the second high we've reached.......ONE MORE STILL TO COME this week!! " i wonder what will drive it to another new high by tomorrow's close???

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A new (conservative) valuation on Beibu places 14c on HZN's interest which I think would equate to 5.5c for FAR (divide by 5 for smaller equity and double for smaller cap). Off hand I can't recall what day it was done, but will check to see whether most recent news was incorporated. Not too much value was ascribed to the previous well due to the viscosity problems (11c for new & 3c for old well to HZN).

 

Looking for Eagles and keeping in mind FAR's multi projects, the rise in FAR's S/p will mean that presently if the Eagle lands as we all seem to think, then % gains will be much greater for SUR, VPE & LKO.

 

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In reply to: golfnut on Thursday 11/05/06 11:57am

Golfnut,

 

we see it every time, we know the rules & guess what, we never believe it will happen again.

 

1. A breakaway gap - a price spike.

2. a small sell off correction (sellers got over-excited) SP lower.

3. bulls take back control & back up their orignal buy on first run. (Greed)

4. another small sell off correction (bulls wants to pull half their capital out on highs) - SP lower.

5. the run continues on smaller margin bulls looking for mode to finalise & those small traders who couldn't trust the spike before.

6. a drop in SP appears to form our new up-trend line.

 

if these steps take days or weeks I don't know but mostly that what happens.

 

I'm not considering any fund breakout like EAGLE giving us 2,000bpd, but any fund breakout within these 6 steps should form a NEW breakaway gap & we start all over again from step 1.

 

books say that http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

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Without the recent discovery in 6-12-South we already have looked at a feasibility study;

 

Concept

Unmanned minimal structure(s) (water depth 30 m) connected by

flowlines to CNOOC 12-1 platform

Crude processing and export carried out on 12-1 platform

Processing and transportation fee paid to CNOOC

Strong local market for crude oil

Candidates

12-8-West 10 mmbo gross

12-8-East 13 mmbo gross

6-12-1 5 ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ 10 mmbo gross

Accelerated development schedule of 12-8 fields as part of CNOOC

led cluster development

First oil targeted for 2007 at initial rate of 15,000 bopd gross

 

So leaving the 6-12 targets out we have 23mmbo in 12-8 east and west. And a planned initial rate of 15000bopd. I think this is worth about 2.5 cents to FAR on its own (23mmbo) with nearly (us) $8.9 million in revenue for FAR per annum for short life of the field. (*not sure how much of that is profit plus only if it will continues to flow at initial 15000bopd). Does someone want to check those figures I am no expert and I might be mixing data from petsec and horizon, I think the 15000bopd is for one target only, first target is 12-8 west then east. (I used $20 for the cps valuation and (us) $65 a barrel for revenue). Obviously these flow rates will change now with the new discovery but still interesting to consider.

 

This new discovery will add extra value by making new and existing discoveries viable and less hard ball with CNOOC especially over tariff rates, if they want 51%.

 

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http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif Finally decided to sell a small holding in MOS (couldn't suffer any longer) and by some more FAR on the dip to 22.5c.

Now feel a sense of relief and that i have done the right thing as i believe in the enthusism exhibited by you FARites.

Keep up the excellent posts and keep the information coming.

 

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oh well, seems that everyone is watching tv tonight & not worried about their shares

 

or

 

Everyone just sold today & I'm the only 1 left with shares in FAR http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

 

cheers,

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