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Everything posted by Krumbs

  1. Strat, That reference reads like something straight out of a spruik sheet. Long on hype, short on fact. Here is a far lengthier and more objective assessment. Yes it's a great resource to have, but it's tight on average with some sweet loose pods. The real point is no-one knows how much is recoverable as yet. Maybe technology will enable lifting production form this formation to another level, just like horizontal drilling has done. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3868
  2. I read that this morning and burst into laughter. How will the banks cover these fees? By gouging the taxpayer. Oh sure they won't be able to pass fees directly onto the consumer, but pass it on they will. After all banks, lead by GS, run the US administration. Score: Banks 2, taxpayer nil. Krumbs survival rule No.1: Don't stand between a banker and a buck.
  3. I've barely had time to post recently mostly for personal reasons. However I have been following this thread and most of your thoughts on the state of various economies accord with my own. All the best in the new venture Mark and good luck (no amount of FA and TA can obviate the need for a bit of that!)
  4. It's the POG. Up 0.9% in AUD today, and ~1.5% in USD.
  5. I have not been paying much attention of late for personal reasons, but another good market synopsis Mark - good because it accords generally with my own views . Here we are, for all intents and purposes, at calendar year end and the market rally I anticipated did not occur. In fact we could see a short profit taking early in the new year as (US) the new fiscal year as generated tax liabilities are not payable for a further ~15 months (I think, or thereabouts). After the S&P 500 1121 level we have about 1225, which is where this bear rally looks to be headed before reversion. Timing seems to be about right - there's time enough to get it there and still present an orderly appearance. The US dollar rally I suspect is partially seasonal and driven by the very computer trading algorithms you alluded to. This is in part unravelling the USD carry trade and may account for the ASX index lag. Attempts at rallying seem to be met with selling pressure (e.g. yesterday) but volumes are seasonally thin so I have to be aware of that too. I have no objective evidence to support this hypothesis, so don't ask! Oh, and the GDP growth of 0.2% should be considered alongside out population growth, which last year was 1.69%, or ~0.42% per quarter. The GDP number that matters to the ordinary Aussie is the GDP per capita, that that shrank by 0.2%. So, RBA take a slap in the face from me too. Happy and safe festive season to all.
  6. Krumbs


    As much as anyone else I guess flower. But that's not the point. TA does not explain anything other than market's emotional state. The indicators were basically saying that gold was overbought and in need some consolidation (my words and also my analysis). The reality of that is a retrace at some point to test and confirm a support. Once that is done and confirmed there is strong buying support at a certain level thus reducing perceived downside risk. You know nothing goes up indefinitely and particularly with such high velocity. That is a hallmark of excessive emotion and thus implied volatility - the further it goes up like that the harder it will eventually fall as a rule. Traders at all levels monitor these things and thus to an extent render them self-fulfilling.
  7. Krumbs


    I rest Clive Maund's case.
  8. Krumbs


    All markets reflect a difference of opinion. If there were no sellers there would be nothing to buy. Be thankful for them rather than derisory. I did not say the TA presented my opinion, although it did. It would be unwise to count on governments not changing their plans. You should be aware that until recently central banks were net sellers. The difference between the retail market and the central bank market is time frame. I wonder where the gold market today would be but for Dubai? No point in that - what's happened cannot be undone. However it has presented an unexpected opportunity to buy gold stocks almost as good as the TA implied correction, which may still yet occur.
  9. Well, I missed the exit as it was spot on my Fib. chart drawn up a few weeks ago. By the same analysis I am trying to add at 50 cps, but the depth clearly shows support in mid-air (from a Fib analysis) at 52. Yes I can find that support on the chart too - shorter term and not as strong. However I have enough already - it's only greed driving me now
  10. Krumbs


    Clive Maund's TA: Gold is now pushing deeply into critically overbought territory on its RSI indicator, so consolidation/correction can be presumed to be imminent. Look for the gap with the 20-day moving average, shown on our 1-year chart (the green line), to be closed in the near future. http://www.safehaven.com/article-15116.htm
  11. Krumbs


    I would not argue with that prediction as it rubs $1190 as I type and $1278 in AUD. Sweet for now, but it surely needs a consolidation which I suspect will come once the 1200 level is pipped? Otherwise the chart starts to look a bit like a blow-off.
  12. Krumbs


    triage, "Blood gold" has been with us since the beginning of the industry and genocides committed in its pursuit - e.g the conquistadors, in the name of God and Queen of course. Artisanal mining with mercury is a more insidious form of "blood gold" in that the dying involves far more pain and suffering. Back to topic, the gold:XAU ratio continues to grind higher, but still nowhere near its peak early this year. It's now above its long term range so one of two things must happen to get it back to that range: POG must correct, or stock prices must rise. I've got my money on the latter although a near term correction appears highly likely, but within the long term trend. Tonight will be interesting.
  13. Krumbs

    Gold in AUD

    Timely post flower. POG rising in all currencies now - AUD POG has decisively broken ~1200 resistance, and not a peep on this board (OK mea culpa as much as anyone else's)! Just to add to that a chart with the Fibonacci retracement levels is attached for the enjoyment of all. Some key levels stand out.
  14. Do we really know what the break-even cost is? It seems to me most commentators/analysts use a price determined by budgetary balancing rather than the cost of discovery and extraction. They are two widely different measures, and they are constantly changing with currency realignments. Saudi's budget balancing price was at the beginning of this year around $US50/bbl, but the USD has tanked some 15% (depending on reference points) so is now likely to be around $US60/bbl, or even higher, but still below current prices. Iran? Well, as we know they are on the other side of the propaganda war so any BS will do. This blogger thinks the breakeven for Iran is nearer $60 - to balance the trading account he effectively says. What about the current account? http://blogs.cfr.org/geographics/2009/08/24/iran/ We can take as a given that most of the low hanging fruit (low cost oil) has been harvested. Iraq may be an exception, but right now the fruit there ain't so low. Now we are seeing apparently religious based conflict in Yemen, which suggests to me that regional instability is far from a given, even if "victory" is declared in Iraq. The underlying causes of the conflicts still exist. That's all for now - of to work for a while.
  15. Wise leanne. The scoping study was done on USD 20k/t nickel at AUD:USD = 0.75 for AUD 26.7k/t Nickel. Nickel is now spot USD 7.30 and the AUD running at 0.93 and headed to parity according to some talking heads, for AUD 17.3k/t. The IRR was 34% in that study, and tright now it would be nil or even negative on these numbers. Moreover the Ravensthorpe debacle has probably put the final nail in the dry laterite nickel industry for some time to come, save perhaps for projects with Ni grades of >~ 2%, for Western financiers. The Bank of China though may take a different view and accept more risk and a lower IRR for security of supply, but I see any production from this project as being at least 5 years from an internal decision to proceed to a DFS and commit the project.
  16. Transit times from Singapore to West Coast USA is somewhere between 15 & 20 days, so how much oil or distillate is in transit at any time? We now have an extra days' storage on the water. The trend is alarming, but I wonder if this absolute level of inventory is really all that worrisome.
  17. Krumbs


    Weekly chart - technically this thing has plenty of (technical) upside in it. I am in at 30, but have been for a while . Looking good now so keep pumping! I plan selling half at 80 .
  18. Krumbs


    I thought you were after the metal prices, rather than the ETF. Divide by 0.985 or thereabouts to get actual POG. Of course the curve shape is the same and you can perform the same TA. I later remembered this site for AUD POG (and other currencies too), but you have to construct your own charts from the data, and that's easy enough to do, as shown from start 2006. I put in a couple of trend lines, but damned if I know what the signify other than increasing volatility! arty?? http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html Oops, this is the wrong board, but still relevant though to IGR and other local goldies.
  19. All rights issues should be renounceable. If shareholders are not in a position to partake for any reason they get diluted and lose value. It's fundamentally inequitable system, as is S708 of the corporations act. I understand your comment about irrelevancy of shares on issue, but they do matter as an essential part of the MC equation.
  20. Krumbs


    Kitco have them here Ross http://www.kitco.com/market/aud_charts.html No historical data though unfortunately. Damn the AUD !!!
  21. I see it through your lens BSA. It's a question of time frame and thus trading frequency. Over 6 months - that's the time frame more in line with the general market recovery - it sitting about mid channel. It may see ~45 over the next week or so and if it does I will be "on alert". ktrianta - our posts crossed. Looks like a fair plan to me!
  22. Ah, but contemplate the liquidity! FML I think has about 2.8B? Since the GFC I have become accustomed to big numbers.
  23. Well, it isn't if you allow for the cash raised, that's what I meant. Depending on the base, the net effect is about 8%. If that cash all goes down a hole without commercial payback then it is a much more substantial 30%.
  24. Because it's trying grapple with reality. Inflation is many things to many people. It's difficult to reconcile current commodity prices with "inflation", but I'm sure I could rationalise the contradiction. The CPI as a political measure is meaningless to those that don't buy the sample basket. Bananas at local Coles today $6/kg. Serious stuff.
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