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tom924

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Everything posted by tom924

  1. In reply to: Twobees on Wednesday 24/09/08 03:37pm Yeah, a few things suggest to me we have reached a short term bottom if not "THE bottom". Besides the usual reasons, (& the ones suggested by early birds) The volatility!!! both up & down even before the short ban. It's just way too much for a normal market & only happens like this near a top or bottom & it's obviously not a top!! (lol) The contrarian factor; Last week it seemed like the vast majority of hedge funds, advisers, even posters & bloggers were advising go short, short them to hell. Pre U.S.A election run (Xmas run nearly here now too! lol), also,, the most important reason,,, The Koshie factor!!! TV specials on how to survive the market crash with Koshie going to wall street(I heard he ain't coming back till the dow hit's 12,000? lol) The only thing missing is a,, "Put a blow torch to the Belly" comment from Kevin Rudd!! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif
  2. Are you basing the crash on fundamentals or t/a ?? You seem so certain? Are you really from the future? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wub.gif
  3. tom924

    Warren Buffett

    In reply to: andy20020 on Wednesday 24/09/08 02:48pm Thanks for the reply Andy & the charts. awesome. You could be right about the dead cat bounces but personally I think p/e's are already so low for many banking stocks that smaller profits( & big losses) are already factored in if not overly exagerated but I have been wrong before!! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif Out of curiosity what number on the Bix would signal to you that the downtrend is broken? or that a bottom is reached? Thanks in advance. p.s I don't want to steal the thread; plus my daughter just woke up & is currently eating one of her shoes!!! lol
  4. Poor fundamentals for Nab? I'm see p/e of 9.6 & a yield of 7.9 %. So they could drop the dividend a bit maybe even lower profits but a 30% drop in share price thats like $17.50 a share a bit extreme don't you think? What's your chart's say? The bounce from $19 looks as solid as a rock on my screen . You gonna short warren buffet , asic & the $700 billion fund?
  5. tom924

    Warren Buffett

    I've been following Yahoo finance quite a lot over the last few weeks in particular & what they have been saying is that the banking/finance index has not reached the lows it did in July but in fact were 10%-15% above. So with all the bad news from lehmans collapse, new lows for the dow, s & p, & nasdaq banks actually bottomed in July?? Thats what they have been saying but I don't what chart or what particular variant of an index they have been using. HAS anyone else noticed this? I don't remember reading any comment on sharescene saying the u.s banks have bottomed? But anyway. Buffet obviously thinks Goldman Sachs has bottomed or close enough too & why not?? Year on Year profits for goldman sachs dropped 3%. Of Course when that information was released to the market the share price dropped 10% the next day even though their profit was like double analysts forecasts. It was quite crazy price movements imo but thats what happened & it also was a catalyst for Australian Bank share prices to drop , particularily MQG. Once again Crazy. Rumour was GS was going to be taken over or go bankrupt. 1.3 Billion profit but all the smart hedges saying short, going the way of Lehman, BROKEN MODEL(same as MQG, lol)ect, ect. So the G.S shareprice was 50% below it's peak even though profits remained the same. Obviously the peak of $240 a share was overdone but now you have the world's 2nd richest man known as a value investor thinking $120 is way to harsh. Also, I don't know if anyone else has been following GS but it was only a few days ago that they hit intra day lows of under $90 a share (sept 18, open $109, close $109). Now with buffet in if that aint a bonafide tradeable bottom I don't know what is??? Who's gonna have the courage to try & short buffets opinion??? I suppose someone could always start a rumour that buffet has lost his marbles? perhaps dementia? Alchemizers? lol. Maybe Asic really did all the shorters a big favour http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif p.s too lazy to spellcheck atm
  6. In reply to: cwjohn on Monday 22/09/08 09:10pm lol, I guess you didn't get my attempt at humour? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/stun.gif it's cool. I actually basically agree with everything you said in reply to Brucem1 earlier. peace.
  7. I've never seen so many people cry a river when the market goes up!! Why do short sellers not organize a march in the streets to let the people know what's going on? I'm sure they would gain much sympathy from the general public http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif
  8. Earlier in the week I closed my shorts on STO & i'm glad I did. I still think it can go down to the $16-$17 range but with todays news(which i didnt read) & chart action(below) risk/reward for shorting seems pretty bad. I think I might leave STO alone because I am having trouble timing the prices. Bye Bye, STO http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/laughingsmiley.gif
  9. I'm back into MQG today. The price has has hit the bottom of the bollinger band & I am hoping it will all be up from here. Maybe one more fall tommorow? No guts no glory eh? A close above $50 tommorow would be just magic . Fingers crossed on a fall in oil tonight & big move up on the dow.
  10. In reply to: flower on Friday 15/08/08 08:52pm Nice response flower. I'd like to quote where you say, "1) the historic extent to which markets fell, an unprecedented 23%, and that they did so all over the world. " & also, "The current situation is infinitely worse than the 87 crash, in that THIS is death by a thousand cuts, whereas BLack Monday was in effect just that, a one day event from which the market fairly quickly started to recover." That sort of backs exactly what I was saying. The reason we will not have an October 1987 style crash is because our market has already fallen 23% or so over about 10 months in the death by a thousand cuts. The 1987 October crash was like 23% in a day after a 500% or so rise in 5 years or so. If looking back even pre-1982 the rise before the 1987 crash was much more than 500%. It's different this time around because it's death by a thousand cuts as you say. So the point is, which cut was/will be, number one thousand?? If I could add to your list of probable explainations for the 1987 crash i'd say because, *there was a big crash in 1930 on the same day & people are superstituos by nature. For what reason do some people say a crash is likely in October of a year, every year, year after year? Every year I read comments on chatrooms like this & some people come out & say , wait till october,, it's like 1930 again, it's like 1987 again,,, year after year. Superstituation. Black cat bad, number 13 bad, ect, ect. Btw my spelling gets worse as I drink more(hint/hint). Disregard or absorb upto you guys. Gotta go for abit & play xbox with my mate who is walking in the gate as i speak. cheers.
  11. QUOTE (fergun @ Friday 15/08/08 08:39pm) Hi fergun, i'm not in this one atm & perhaps my T/A skills are not any better than yours but heres my opinion anyway for whatever it's worth. Potentially a bottom was reached at around $1.60 early this month but definetly today's price movements are not conclusive. 5 year charts show big support around $1.40 . Short term charts show OZL needed to finish above $1.90 for the downtrend to be broken(a finish above the 27 day moving average). The base metals index chart would probably give more insight but yeah i'm not in so i'm not looking http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif Medium term it looks like $1.40- $2.10 would be the trading range on this one. Cheers (edit); Volume was very small today.
  12. Not much of a fall today & finished on its highs on "tiny" volume. I'm guessing people are getting in early for the 2011 production of coal seam gas??? STO already produce a lot of gas. It's too bad it seems hedged at much less than current prices. I really think STO needs to test $16 again to consolidate before it can push higher back into the $18-$20 range. P/E ratio on this stock is stretched hard & I don't care what Petronas thinks. IMO they are recalcitrant. A big bounce in oil tonight & I could be worried & close my shorts but,,, as Alfred E Neuman say. Wot me worried?
  13. In reply to: nohoper on Friday 15/08/08 12:48pm Nice 26 year chart mate. My interpretation says we are at a short term(medium term) bottom. I agree the market as a whole is in for a few years of range bound trading. DB76 , Chart wise & fundamentally the chances of a 1987 style crash are almost zero, why?? The market is already down over 20% with much pessimism still around. Very different to the near 500% increase over just over 5 years pre 1987 crash. Most people with funds to invest are "light" the share market & "heavy" cash. They have to get back in eventually, I guess they are just waiting for the bell to ring?? Stock picking rather than market picking is what is needed now for people to be successful. The fact the market is so voliatile(1%+ movements) suggests we are close to a bottom. Just as the 100% + increase between 1986-1987 suggested a big top was coming. The market has been in a 100 year + bull run. IMHO that is no reason to think we are now in a 100+ year bear market. Anyway it doesnt matter too much to me, I more into fundamental analysis of individual stocks using charts to maximize profits(all charts, not just one). Think about cash, & the returns cash gives. Cash is the best performing asset class about once every 10-15 years. Cash has had a good run this year, but it's time is coming to a close. Cheers.
  14. K, shorting this one again at $17.80. $16 is the target. Cheers.
  15. I'm taking some profits from this one, todays price action hasn't been convincing. I'll probably try come back in between $51 & $52. CHeers.
  16. I thought Bank prices were gonna jump a couple of weeks ago but it was a fizzer. Maybe they will start moving up again soon? I don't trust banks, they pinch every penny they can! ,,,,,,Unconvictable criminals they are losing Hundreds of millions of dollars while increasing rates on loyal, dependable, profitable customers....
  17. Oil prices really need to come back to under $90 a barrel. $120+ kills devoloped economies like the U.S.A & Australia. Bubble & froth from the market is merely starting to unwind.
  18. Tinkus was spot on. People trading warrants have had numerous an opportunity to make 20-30% profit per day trading on this one. Charts say $55 on Monday, 2 weeks after my estimates. $66 is more likely than $49.50 on this stock. Trend break to the upside. MQG a winner for short term traders & long term traders alike(long). MQG is like a machine, growth, year after year. Sometimes people lose percentage of profits!!!! so their share price must fall from $90 to $50. Every Company that increases profits 10 years in a row must halve in value when fannie & freddie experience difficulties with home loan borrowers. MQG have no money invested with fannie or freddie only long term performers who outperform yearly. Macquarie group the only Bullish commodity forecasters 5 years ago amongst the majors. I have yet to see one MQG writedown. It will be very difficuly for MQG to increase profits yet again for another year BUT,, They are a hell of a lot cheaper now then 1 year ago (see the chart) & even further away from all time highs & why?? Bank's have underperformed lately in general . MQG is like a bank so people just bash the price down as if it was common scum? P/E & Yield say's this company is the worst of the worst.. Unemployable can't get a job http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/sad.gif If profit's increase again this year then $100+ per share is a very real possibility over the next 12 months. Why not??? A P/E of 16 at $100 per share & yield of 4% If!!!! MQG equal last years profits. A 20% drop in profits for MQG year on year values this company at $75. Oversold at $60 long term investors are buying in the $50 range. 5 year charts are devastating on anybody short this company. Charts say up big time. IMHO long term investors should get in now under $60 very heavy.
  19. In reply to: Mark M on Saturday 26/07/08 02:02pm Thursdays short sell text says 22 million short shares for Nab. http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt I expect friday's update will show an increase. But wow i just checked Nab Warrant movements for friday. Check it out here, http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/WarrantP...t=nab&State=127 Big Bets are going on! cheers
  20. I've got a feeling a lot of people went short banks yesterday? I'm not sure because i have yet to get friday's short numbers. It was interesting that the prompt for thurday's fall in financials was existing house sales & friday's rise by new house sales(at least in part). Anyway It looks like th U.K & the U.S.A markets overnight ignored the pessimism of Australian Investors to post gain's. S&P/ASX 200 Financials (XFJ) should bounce Monday . The chart I show shows resistance at 5000 & support at 4700. A few days consolidation at these levels is a bullish signal.
  21. "Aequs Securities institutional dealer Ric Klusman said the size of the $830 million provision was unexpected, but added that the rout on NAB shares was overdone. "Work out NAB's profit and divide it into this and it's only a couple of months worth,'' he said. "But it's just another indication that there's a lot of loose stuff around.'' In the six months to March 31, the bank booked a $2.7 billion profit." http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/stor...5014099,00.html I'm guessing $25 will hold on Monday & maybe even finish up for the day
  22. NAB down like 13+% today. That's a loss of $7.5 Billion Market cap for Nab. Scary looking chart but who knows?
  23. Here's a chart showing the XFJ (S&P/ASX 200 Financials) at 4,702 down 6.6% today. With todays price action we have the index back at the 25 day moving average. A pontential bounce point. XFJ is now trading at March Low levels. Another potential reason for a bounce. So IMHO today's price movement's still may constitute a healthy pullback in a trading range breakout for the sector. Individual Charts on Banks look mixed but that is healthy as Investors are starting to pick & choose their way in the market. MQG is my pick in the banking sector http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif
  24. Thanks bro, but I got in at $46 with $55 as a target & i'll wait it out. Today's volume is much lower than the last 2 days with most trading nearer the day's highs. I am still bullish /shrug $48.50 has the moving averages so that would be another potential bounce point "if" markets are down "big" tonight & early next week. I thought the AGM meeting made it clear that MQG's profits are not affected by U.S sub prime loans? The market is currently throwing out the baby with the bathwater. The P/E ratio & yield on this stock is ridiculous. It's only a matter of time until this stock moves up "big" & "quickly". Cheers.
  25. I think we are seeing a one day healthy pullback in bank shares & I find it very hard to be pessimistic at the moment. Citigroup's bank downgrades don't worry me in the slightest. Oil Companies were upgraded across the board last month & we all know what happened there http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif I really hope people have the strength & courage to go long banks before todays close.
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