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Everything posted by Barra

  1. Oh you legend Eb, Like you never posted anything off topic! I only bothered to explain stops thing so you MIGHT stop to think there is more than one way to skin a cat. But no you want to be a smart ass again..very well. Market going your way for now so you make smart ass comments at will, when it reverses no doubt you'll pull your head in.
  2. Following the example I used yesterday. Had I taken a long on the Dow last night when it was trading at 17020 in the late afternoon I would have needed to put the stop under 16943 to have that survive the night. As I usually go for something around $10 per point or above that would have lost me up t0 USD800 if triggered and now the Dow is at 17142 . Alternatively I needed to figure out to put a stop under 16940, a level I would have thought unnecessary if my entry was any good and been prepared to have over $800 of leeway in the stop.
  3. i always use stops, only you who try to be smart- No not trying to be smart mate..I've explained why I rarely use stops on index positions but to reiterate, the CFD provider I use tends to harvest the crap out of any stops, that is unless they are placed so far away as to be virtually meaningless to me because if I'm taken out at that point I've lost more than I wanted to lose. If for example I put a long on the Dow tonight and left a stop in say 70 points under it's London to a brick that will get cleared out in the chop overnight and then the index might move up and consolidate higher. It happened to me so many times I stopped using stops most of the time- not always. If I decide to build a position which is beyond what I am comfortable with leaving the computer for half an hour then I will use stops. I've found this method works better for me as I'm not losing chunks of money as often on trades which I get shaken out of by the volatility - particularly the volatility we're seeing now and in between market rollovers which can see major swings based on nothing other than someone putting the cleaners through stops. As for a strategy - I think I do have a strategy most of the time. Right now I've made it clear I don't think this rally will hold and as indexes put on one of the best weeks in recent times last week I took a short on the Dow which I closed this morning. Is that a strategy? Don't understand why you think it is superior to have a notion that commodity supply will eventually give way at lower commodity prices and trade long on that? To me that is putting the cart before the horse until we can see evidence of the supply drying up. Fe- Gina will start shipping 50mt's from Roy Hill on October 20 while steel prices are looking sick again in china- lets see how this plays into your strategy.
  4. From the AFR Woodside Petroleum is understood to be mulling a modest price increase in its $11.6 billion approach for Oil Search, in an effort to at least get its target to the negotiating table, sources said on Wednesday night. It's understood that chief executive Peter Coleman and his chairman Michael Chaney were moving very cautiously and were well aware that many Woodside investors considered the Perth-based player was already offering a full price in its one-for-four scrip approach for what was essentially a non-operating interest in the Papua New Guinea Liquefied Natural Gas project. Then there is the sovereign and indigenous risks attached to PNG which have become all too evident in recent days. However, the sources stressed Woodside hadn't given up hope of getting its target. The move comes as some investors question whether the Gresham and Bank of America Merrill Lynch-advised Woodside would be better turning its attention to a target less favoured in the market such as Santos. But others believe that making any significant acquisition at this time represents something of a gamble on an upturn in commodity prices when no recovery is in sight, and that Woodside should instead return surplus cash to shareholders. On the other side, the offhand rebuttal of Woodside's original approach by the Oil Search board would signal that a hefty bump up in the proposed offer price would be needed to kick off some serious talks given the price the major shareholders paid to invest. Woodside's offer price was $7.65 while the PNG government came in at $8.20 per share but would need more than that to sell out because of the costs of the UBS financing. Abu Dhabi's International Petroleum Investment Company paid $8.55. Woodside boss Coleman has also publicly stressed his reluctance to increase the bid. .market-data-no-chart { display: none !important; } #quotes-five-years .spinner { position: absolute; top: 20px; } #quotes-one-day .spinner { position: absolute; top: 20px; } <h2 class="heading">Related Quotes</h2> 5 years1 DayLast updated: Updating...Last updated: Updating...View full quote <h2 class="heading">Company Profile</h2> ASX Announcements Expand ASX AnnouncementsView all announcements Woodside is due to announce its September quarterly sales and production report on Thursday. Woodside has yet to respond to requests for comment. Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-fi...4#ixzz3obJyDNQq Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
  5. Gollygosh, I think it is too early to say whether we are bouncing in any sort of sustainable way. We started the year at about 5435, broke through 6000 in April and it has been downhill from there. As a headless chicken I did ok calling that when a few notables were counselling me on the wisdom of going short..several saw blue sky to 6500 and then stocked up when the index faltered to 5650 alas a false rally and again at 5500 and down it went into 4800. Big miners slaughtered and sliding down to lows previously seen in 2008...yep it's all beer and skittles for the perma bulls. And depending on whether this rally can stick or not, and a lot of dedgy economic data would indicate not , then we'll leg down again at some point.
  6. see many try to to play the short term market without stops or jump in and out like headless chicken but when someone always come out with victory lap dance after the event that makes others feel so funny. What are we talking riddles? Apart from getting on board the freakish government sponsored push for A50 which had you underwater for some time as I recall, where is the sense in your recent strategy of buying long xjo or big miners as it /they fell and fell and fell and all based on predictions that commodities would spring back when it would appear the opposite is happening? I would call that the actions of a headless chicken and I don't see you reporting the hair cuts which must surely have taken place if the stops were triggered over and over.
  7. Err - that quote is fairly ridiculous if you consider where our index is right now after topping out at 6100. I've done quite well by getting out of stocks and going short the index . Not without it's risks to be sure, but I do know this strategy is proving a lot better than trying to buy resource stocks (or our index) on the way down which some have done since the index first dropped under 5800. I've kept saying iron ore has a long way to go before recovering. And now our banks are following suit. If the property sector really cools here (and it is only a matter of time) then I fail to see how banks will maintain profits and due to the weight these stocks carry in our index, it pretty much shoots down the case for going long. Ergo it can be just as problematic going all in looking for a bounce if what you are really buying is a bear rally.
  8. Btw ...maybe the Qld based lawyer for the landholders who was reportedly refused entry to PNG has helped get the message out ?
  9. Hi Triage, I agree that John Garnaut is a top notch journalist and his reporting on China has been second to none . I often wondered if he would remain safe naming corrupt officials and exposing the power plays behind the recent purges in China, certainly I'd be surprised if he wasn't being watched fairly closely . And you are probably right, must be co incidence, but at the same time it is interesting how so many details about the UBS loan came to light at this juncture given this deal was put to bed some time ago. No one was particularly interested in the official probe being undertaken in PNG earlier this year (which stalled after being starved of funding) until a few weeks after the WPL offer was rejected. The first article mentioned sources at UBS. The 3rd article in the paper today was written by another journalist.
  10. And another article about PNGLNG in the SMH business section today and not exactly positive. I guess with all this negative publicity WPL will be reconsidering. They would never be interested in sub $10 boe's for the next 20 years if there was a chance the plant could be shut down for a week..no that is simply too risky. It is just incredibly bad timing for OSH to have these stakeholder problems bubble to the surface while a bid is in the mix but thankfully the story came out in time and a potential misstep has been averted. Shame about how this is also hurting OSH's share price. Yep yep yep
  11. Had a look at the short positions report from 1/10 to 7/10th and STO shorts actually increased over that timeframe from 94.2 million to 95.2 million shares. This equates to 9.38 % of the issued securities Fairly odd considering the share price has rallied from sub 4 to high 5's..I was expecting to see a drop as shorts were closed out.
  12. Chinese trade data at 1. With estimates for a yoy drop in exports of 6% there is ample reason for caution trading xjo long today. Shipping container rates suggest the data will be in line with estimates. I'm surprised to see the Dow is still tacking on gains without retracing. Alcoa result made no difference. Will see what JP Morgan comes out with tonight and if markets ignore what is likely to be a weak result, l had better rethink trying to scalp a retrace to 16800.
  13. Very quiet on the OSH bid...but no so quiet on the PR side for OSH, Peter O'Neill, UBS and Exxon On Saturday the SMH ran a big two page peice on the PNG Gov't's loan for 10% of OSH via a UBS loan and now today a story appears in the SMH about landholders getting diddly squat out of the LNG plant. Both articles by J Garnaut. Co incidence? Or is someone using the media to play a bit of hard ball?
  14. Have a look at this chart..Note when Lehman hit the sales to inventory ratio was better than it is right now. The reason why this can be a harbinger of doom for an economy is because it may indicate that orders from wholesalers/distributors to producers/manufacturers are set to dry up - as happened in 2007/8. If products are sitting on the shelves for too long then the supply chain backs up. Small wonder the fed kicked the interest rate can into next year. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ISRATIO Anyone looking at the chart might point out that inventories were a lot higher prior to 2003 however this was before the new age of virtual on demand warehousing. Any deviation from the business as usual at about 1.25 on the ratio is a sign that something is not quite right.
  15. Well that long ran beyond my expectations. Thank Mrs Yellen and Co for your dovish minutes. Now shorting again. Alcoa results were suitably disappointing reflecting weak aluminium pricing and headwinds from the stronger USD and weaker Chinese growth. Does anyone care? Used to be a bellweather stock...first down quarter in 7 and the company is splitting itself in two (a bit like BHP) to reinvent itself after the stock fell 25 to 30% over the last year. While it is hard to pick where these Fed inspired 'hot air' rallies fade, I'm pretty confident reality will show itself shortly (tonight perhaps?) and the Dow will retest 1680. I recall on the way up past 16800 a year or two back that level was quite a hurdle. And here are the words which moved the markets last night "Nevertheless, in part because of the risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation, the committee decided that it was prudent to wait for additional information," the Fed said in the minutes.
  16. Thanks Mista, I'd be keen to see how this volume based negative candle looks when it shows up if you could show me. I closed my Dow shorts on the dip to 16800 and went long after it tested stops below and after seeing DAX and FTSE looking ok. As you say the futures are not likely to leave a gap so really this long trade up 80 to 100 points is fairly safe (gulp - should never state that but I did!) Edit and there it is ...dipping as soon as I said it was a safe bet!
  17. Mista, What's your sell signal if I may ask. Dow shorts are in at average of 16900 and I'm looking at a profit on the futures now..I suppose futures might wind back up before the open tonight in which case I'll probably cash out and look to get back in. Not sure yet as it might just open down tonight as the short covering won't be there if the futures are pointing down and nervous bulls will grab any profits they've just made. Have sold most local stocks now. Only holding OSH and short NCM. Dumped the likes of BHP, looking for it to retrace as I can see oil struggling to hold this rally and the outlook for Fe is still dismal imo.
  18. Curious quote at the end of this POO summary from CNBC Oil prices were volatile on Wednesday as government data showing a large U.S. crude inventory build surprised traders the morning after an industry group had reported a draw. The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude inventories in the country rose by 3.1 million barrels last week, versus a 2.2 million-barrel build expected by analysts in a Reuters survey. Just on Tuesday preliminary inventory data by the American Petroleum Institute had suggested a drawdown of 1.2 million barrels. Oil prices slid after the EIA report. Read MoreInvestors tread carefully despite oil rally The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark for U.S. crude closed down 72 cents, or 1.5 percent, at $47.81 a barrel, after rising more than $1 earlier. Brent, the global crude benchmark, was down 60 cents at $51.30 a barrel, wiping out earlier gains. A rally between Friday and Tuesday had bumped up Brent and U.S. crude by about $4 each, as oil broke out of a month-long trading range on technical buying and supportive data. The crude build reported by the EIA "will take some of the wind out of the market's sails," said Gene McGillian, senior analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. Read MoreCould oil prices really shrink to… $20 per barrel? "The report is bearish enough to break the back of the rally, he said. It's cold water on the market." Tariq Zahir, trader in crude oil spreads at Tyche Capital Advisors in Laurel Hollow in New York, agreed. "Overall, we have a real battle going on, with crude technically having broke out of the range we have been in for more than a month. $50 for WTI is in sight," Zahir said. "But fundamentally we are seeing builds and that should continue we feel in the weeks to come," he said. Zahir cited the impending arrival of Iranian oil as nuclear-related sanctions against Tehran come off, and an Atlantic hurricane season that has so far done no damage to U.S. oil installations. Read MoreRussia-Saudi oil cooperation is 'hogwash': Kilduff On Tuesday, a monthly report by the EIA projected that global oil demand for 2016 will grow by the fastest rate in six years, suggesting a crude surplus was easing more quickly than expected. Robin Bieber, director of London brokerage PVM Oil Associates, said the overall trend for oil prices would still be higher. "The key technical indicators are positive," Bieber said. "It is not advised to be short."
  19. US markets managed to grind higher and it's rallying despite weak data like the last NFP. It will be interesting to see how well bull's absorb Alcoa's results due after the US close tonight. With aluminium prices sliding away since the last report Alcoa is likely to report some weak numbers. My guess is there could be one more tepid up day and then Alcoa's results will make a dent. Might only be temporary but I reckon early tomorrow morning could be a good time to load up some shorts for a blip down, that is before the release. JMHO
  20. As we are in the US earnings season again I thought I'd post a summary of Monsanto's latest report. In a nutshell they are shedding jobs, cutting R and D and buying up shares to prop up their share price. One might have thought lower oil prices would have delivered a profit windfall for a company which spends quite a bit on fossil fuels to distribute their seeds and manufacture chemicals. Nope. Monsanto Co. said it will eliminate 2,600 jobs as part of a cost-savings plan, joining a growing list of major corporations struggling to contain the damage from the decline in world commodities prices. The St. Louis-based agricultural giant announced the reductions -- the equivalent of 12 percent of its workforce -- as it reported a loss of 19 cents a share in the fiscal fourth quarter and warned profit would remain weak through 2016. Like DuPont Co. and Glencore Plc, Monsanto, the world's largest seed maker, is taking steps to combat the effects of a commodity slump that reduced farmer incomes for two straight years. Moves to trim expenses include re-prioritizing some research and development efforts and exiting the sugar-cane business to save as much as $300 million a year. Still, the company said it plans to meet its goal of doubling per-share earnings in five years from 2014. "It seems surprising that they are still confident of reaching the 2019 goal given the environment they are facing for 2016," Chris Shaw, a New York-based analyst at Monness Crespi Hardt & Co. who rates the shares neutral, said in a telephone interview. Shares Drop Monsanto fell 2 cents to $88.06 in New York. The shares have dropped 26 percent this year. Profit will fall to $5.10 to $5.60 a share in the 12 months that began Sept. 1, excluding restructuring costs, from $5.73 a year earlier, Monsanto said Wednesday in a statement. That compares with $6.22, the average of 23 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The last time that profit dropped was in 2010. On Monday, DuPont, Monsanto's largest competitor, cut its forecast for 2015 earnings, citing weak agriculture markets in Brazil and the dollar's strength against the real. DuPont Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ellen Kullman abruptly stepped down. Also on Wednesday, Platform Specialty Products Corp., another U.S. rival, cut its earnings forecast. Monsanto said it will accelerate $3 billion of share repurchases under a program that was suspended during its failed $46 billion bid for Syngenta AG. The cost savings, buybacks and improved agriculture and currency markets as well as sales of a new genetically modified soybean called Intacta Pro should allow a return to per-share earnings growth exceeding 20 percent a year by fiscal 2017, the company said. Additional restructuring plans being developed could reduce expenses by an additional $100 million, Monsanto said. Fourth-quarter profit also missed expectations. The loss in the three months ended Aug. 31, a seasonally weak period dependent on sales in South America, compared with the 3-cent loss estimated on average by 19 analysts.
  21. Abrupt reversal on the xjo this morning. Did some data come out ?
  22. Yep Mista a higher entry is probably sensible. The Dow clung on last night and I trimmed my exposure, but it's rolling over a bit now in the futures market. Yum brands reported some weak numbers after the close and the nasdaq was unable to make gains. I really get the feeling investors are too nervous to wade in and hold on now. Ie this is a relief rally and won't hold imo. Falling short to medium term bond rates are saying a lot of the 'smart' money is staying out of this rally and prepared to park money for no interest rather than risk it in the bank or in shares. 3mth US treasuries are offering ZERO return for the first time ever. Interestingly US dollar seems to be rolling over a bit now just about everyone believes a rate hike is never going to happen. Oil up markedly overnight on news US production is about to sink dramatically. Not sure if it is yet, but that is what the wires are saying. Happy to be long oilers here and have taken a small xjo long this morning.
  23. German factory orders mom just came in - 1.8% vs expected increase of .5%. Not great. Gone short Dow -with no other data out I'm looking for a retrace/profit taking session tonight.
  24. Also from that article.. " In June, Citi forecast the index to reach 6000 by the end of 2015 and 6300 in mid-2016" Some work to be done over the next 3 months if Citi are to be right on their previous call- esp with oz housing prices topping out and auction rates descending quickly from 80%, ie banks are heading for the down cycle
  25. Sorry folks, previous post wrong thread!
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