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garryg

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  1. garryg

    QPN

    After a longer than anticipated wait, I'm quite happy with today's progress/announcement. Before QPN can run, it needed to establish land access, and importantly the 'rights' to oil & gas. This has been achieved. It took a while (as do many things in Indonesia) but as long as it is done legally and supports the company going forward, then this is diligent management when operating if newly developed/developing nations. Currently, the market is slow for the junior oilers. That said, QPN has a lot going for it once we get a rig announcement and an estimate of spud date. They will be the catalysts for SP movement. IMHO, the SP movement will be significant at that time. Reasons for this include: * target potential up to 59mmbbl or 340Bcf gas. This is a large target given the MC of Quest. Most traders prefer a high impact drill as it offers the possibility of a high impact return. QPN's drill offers this. * the SP is still within range of historic low levels. Last year the SP hovered over 1c on anticipation of drilling. From here, that would be 100% return. * If one takes the options as a guide (currently .002c for use at .015c), then punters are banking on .017c to break even. Clearly this is speculation on their behalf. That said, last year the SP hovered close to .012c on anticipation of drilling. When the real things actually occurs... * The leverage from such a low base price, and the % increase per .001c from this low base, should make it appealing for day-traders and speculators alike. * QPN have potential drills to follow if implemented. This encourages punters who wish to hold through the drill and are not playing a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) approach. We should now start to see accumulation after today's announcement, although probably not large SP movement. Bring on the rig contract and a spud date - then the real action begins. I'm on board with Blowout preventer - QPN is about as good as it gets in the junior oiler species at this time. Holding QPN at .0055c ave
  2. garryg

    QPN

    Interesting to John Campbell's Oiler's Weekly mention QPN this week in his reviews. I won't divulge information as it is a subscription publication (and one that I recommend...and no, I am not a mate or related or on the pay-roll) but it is another sign that a growing number of professional publications are growing interested in QPN's 2013 projects. Given John's specialty in the oil & gas sector, its very interesting to see. Looking forward to a BESBS run soon... Holding at .006c
  3. Great to see the latest run for LKO. It appears to me to be inspired by 4 main factors: 1. With NSW appearing to be becoming more open to fraccing, there is a hope that the Vic Liberals might ease their current ban and allow a 'case by case' review. This would potentially open the Wombat project up and increase the chances of a commercial project. 2. Gina has brought $$$$$ to the table, and is seen as a reputable large company. 3. Alex Downer provides lobbying access and power to the Liberals (hence the issue of fraccing) 4. With Gina, Armour and Beach all in the wings, suddenly LKO looks to have more clout than a typical penny-dreadful. I am not in LKO. I'm sticking to my BESBS strategy as I don't know when Wombat will be given the 'ok' by the Vic government. That said, it is great to see many longer-term and medium holders getting some capital back/profits. It is also a great sign for the junior explorers in general...punters are now becoming more prepared to take a punt in this sector. All the best to holders.http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif
  4. garryg

    QPN

    Been picking up more QPN. Quarterly was largeley as expected. Cash to go, just waiting on finalisation of an agreement with local landowners. Wet season should end relatively soon. I'm expecting a drill around April. Reminds me a lot of the shareprice 'calm' of BKP before MacIntyre. After a false alarm, finally drilling got underway and early holders reaped a very nice BESBS (Buy Early Sell before Spud) profit. Hoping that this runs in a similar way. Holding QPN at .006c
  5. garryg

    FAR - FAR LIMITED

    Sold out of FAR. Once FAR announced that the probable reason for SP spike was the AP drill, I started to sell. If AP drill is a success, FAR benefit from nearology. If AP drill is a dud, FAR might cop some negative extermality impact. With no update on FAR drilling (and the ASX release did give management a chance to make a positive comment in this regard), I'm happy to take profits and move on. As a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) player, the AP drill complicates things given we have no set dates for FAR's own drilling. As AP are now underway (and information is not easy to get), I'll sell as it becomes a pseudo-spud for FAR, as th drill will have some impact on FAR. Time to get set elsewhere... When FAR announce a drill date, then I'll re-consider returning. All the best for long-term holders. Just a 10% profit but ok with that
  6. Hi Nick, True recent OEL releases state April 13 but I beleive the legal requirements state August 13 and more often than not (in my experience) drills are usually a little late or delayed. I'm hoping for April 13 but think it prudent to assume August when calculating investments. Anyway, JMHO... I do hope that you are right!
  7. Nice to see response to ASX 'Please Explain' recent gains and volumes confirms 2 drillings for late H1 2013. No guarantee that timing will occur but good to read! Holding at 8.6c ave
  8. garryg

    FAR - FAR LIMITED

    Good to see SP movement. Not sure whether someeone knows something regarding L6??? Probably just an overdue punt on nearology of AP drilling. Happy either way...
  9. Hi B, Seen and replied. http://www.sharescene.com/style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif Nice to see punters starting to assume that BHP will be working hard to organise a rig for Cinco before the August 2013 dealine. SP risen today to .099c. Once we crack the .010c mark, we start to see .005c chunks as the SP rises. Risks still remain that BHP stuff up a rig booking (unlikely but still exists) and that the order of drills - OEL have stated up to 5 drills this year with 2 being development wells - might take away some of the pre-spud run for Cinco. Nevertheless, happy with progress to date. Holding at .086c ave http://www.sharescene.com/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif
  10. Hi Bermuda, I suspect that you are right about OXX and 2013. In my case, it really is just a matter of remaining disciplined and playing the BESBS game. I would not be surprised if I am back in OXX again during 2013. Not sure if the timing for Winchester will work for me but Matuku looks quite likely. All the best for a great 2013. Cheers, G
  11. garryg

    QPN

    Decided to have a dabble on QPN. While there are no guarantees in this game and the risk is exactly when will the drill start,I am content to assume that it most likely will occur in Q1 2013 given regulatory approval and the timing of the CR. If this is the case, then there is much to recommend QPN as a BESBS (or into the drill) play: * I am looking at a 1-3 month wait on a funded drill that is targetting an estimated (up to) 59mmbbl or 340Bcf gas on the first drill. *The drill is a big target. This should attract some trader attention. * The CR provides funds but importantly is placing a platform under the SP. * One can buy in at the CR price. This removes the risk of being caught holding more expensive stock if punters quickly unload SPP stock. * The SP has moved between .009 and .012c upon speculation/action in the past. If the market holds, one might hope for a similar response. If so, a potential return of 50-100% is not out of the question. * MC is relatively low for a drill this size. * The SP is so low that the leverege is very significant at .006c entry. As always, DYOR. That said, I am happy to be entering QPN and will continue to buy in the short term. Holding at .006c
  12. Hi Anroo, Have sold out - finished today - over the past 3 days. The SP appeared to be drifting again so that was my signal to go and get set elsewhere. There is nothing wrong with OXX. It has cash and good management. Palta-1 offers a decent royalty in the long run and then has Winchester (probably late Q1 next year) and then Matuku mid-year. That said, I am a Buy Early Sell Before Spud (BESBS) or sell at least sell before results, player. Discipline is important and one never goes broke taking a profit. In this market, I am happy with 30% in 4 months. (I did marginally better than I thought as I forgot to average in a few extra I bought on the cheap for my teenage kids). With a little luck, I might be back before Winchester (depending upon timing and impact of Palta on the SP). All the best to holders. Bought (ave) 14c Sold (ave) 18.5c (19.5c, 19c, 18.5c, 18c) Profit: 33%+ in 4 months
  13. Hi Anroo, While I am very tempted to hold until Palta finishes (I assume between now and another 3 weeks based on the asx announcement announcing spud in mid-October and claiming the drill would take 60-90 days), I will probably look to maintain discipline (in these markets, i find this helpful) and sell in the next couple of weeks. Debating whether I might buy a few in QPN now, look for a quick gain of .002-.003c on drilling, then even try to return to OXX for a Santos announcement. Everything would need to line up and this is unlikely. That said, a profit is a profit in this market. Still holding at present but I can see the argument for holding into next year with Winchester and Matuku to follow.. Cheers, G
  14. Still holding OXX. Management told us that the drill at Palta would take between 2-3 months and started mid-October. It is not huge as a SP trigger (as it is a royalty in the longer term) but the psychology of a discovery is worth a bit. Now we have Winchester in Q1 (Santos) and then Matuku is confirmed for mid-2013; the drills for 2013 are lining up. I'll hold for the moment. If Santos can confirm a rig soon, that would give the SP a boost. Holding and Watching...
  15. Been buying in OEL over the past 3 weeks. With the Philippine drill due by early H2 2013 with BHP as the JV partner driving the project, this seems a straight-forward Buy Early Sell before Spud (BESBS) play. Once drill rig is booked and announced, then up she goes. I've managed to accumulate between 8.3c and 8.9c and am very happy (given the market and limited opportunities for good BESBS plays) to be here. I'll be hoping for a 100% return on drill as history suggests 16-19c is not unreasonable on a big drill. The SP has been historically low so the platform to buy has been comforting. Lets see how we go... Holding at ave. 8.6c
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