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Everything posted by rossw

  1. couple of great trends if you were intra-day trading though For you long's, GT's calling a couple of hundred point rally in the DAX soon http://marketrant.blogspot.com/2009/02/dax...ou-want-to.html
  2. yeah I saw that. dropped about 20 points right near 12:45 (when HSI futs open) will be interesting to see how many buyers show up this afternoon. they've already been knocked back a couple of times
  3. rossw

    Gold in AUD

    good thread arty I got some GOLD shares about 2 years ago (around the low 80's) to see how it would go compared to my bankwest savings up about 60% since I think that's a bit better! just wish i got more I'll hold it for a few more years and see if all this inflation stuff I read about is going to give gold a real solid push up
  4. well what a slow morning in the index after the initial moves. just grinded up since a bit before 11, taking hours. it topped out around here yesterday (3510ish). Wonder how it'll fare up at this level this arvo?
  5. rossw


    Futures on bonds might be worth a look too for the smaller player
  6. Thansk Hungry Been reading it for most of the morning. And found a link to his old blog, so plenty of reading ahead. It's good to see how an actual pro trades. Anyone know of any other pro SPI traders blogs? Or good links? only other one I've read before is http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/ which was also a very good read and back to the index... can't keep a good market down it seems! rallied all morning, futures were only a few points off being unched after opening down over 2%
  7. that's why I'd rather not go into defecit spending. today's thoughts throughout the day have just been posted to my blog (see link in sig). Another crap one on my behalf. http://oztrading.blogspot.com/2009/02/tuesday-10-feb.html Bit of deja-vu this morning. Rallied throughout the night session (I almost put on a long in the low 3440's at about 5:20 yesterday arvo but thought better of it - night session too wide/risky). Closed this morning at 3493 (yesterday morning's close was only 7 points higher). So will the day session be a repeat of yesterday? Bit of a move up and then a fall throughout the day? I'll watch it closely if it gets above 3500.. 10am - match roughly unched and fell about 10 points to a bit under 3480. It's looking a bit oversold, but after yesterday's burnings I'm just waiting and watching 10:30am - getting close to oversold down here in the mid 3460's. Not really much action though. I'm waiting for a clear signal before getting involved. 11:04am - wise to avoid that long earlier. the bounce up wasnt even 10 points before it reversed back down to a new low of 3452. Gonna be another slow/low volume day until people find out how much they'll be stimulated by Obama and co. Meanwhile the sell the open would've paid off today. There was no spike up like yesterday, just straight into a downtrend. 11:14am - itchy trigger finger here. Thinking about getting long at 3451. hmmm.. 11:16am - 3450 seems to be holding. Long at 3451.5. There's 30/60/50 in the bid depth beneath me, lets see if they're real or not 11:18am - guess not. new lows set at 3440. 11:22am - that was quick. out for -15 points. 11:32am - so the trend is clearly down and I get itchy to get long...? And of course end up burnt. Gotta sort that out and know when it's time to 'catch the knife' and when that trend is my friend. 12:21pm - still falling. new low just set at 3425. 1:19pm - this is quite the rut I've got myself in.. Total for Feb so far is 14 trades, 3 wins, 11 losses, net -144 points. Even a paper trade I just wrote down would've got stopped out. There's been some good trends the last 2 days as well, which would've been profitable if just rode along. Thinking about sitting on the sidelines for the rest of the week and just doing some more paper trading.. 1:48pm - did a double bottom just get formed in the mid 3420's? or am I just looking for another excuse to get long? 2:30pm - not really a double bottom back there. Just dribbling sideways. Some people on sharescene.com were saying there's some Obama speech on tv, market's been going sideways, I guess everyone's just watching their tv. Our work tv has just switched over to the cricket, much more interesting than Obama. 3:20pm - from following a link and then another etc from sharescene I've stumbled across the website from Davin Clarke which has his trading blog. With a profit over a year and a half of 1.5mil I'll be spending quite some time reading up on him. Here's the links: http://www.trade4edge.com/ --> davin clarke's current site http://davinstradingreport.blogspot.com/ --> his old trading site 3:56pm - bit of a late rally here into the match. back up towards 3450. 4:30pm - wasn't really watching that last half hour. Looks like a tease break above 3450 which then got sold back down to 3430 region. Closed at 3433. Been reading more of the posts from davin clarke. Looks like he's making some serious cash (like $5k/day over a year). Now that's what I'm talking about!! As said above, total for Feb -144
  8. Vic, i'd be very careful paying up for one of those trading courses. they're quite expensive, and you'd probably learn more losing that 6k or whatever in making actual trades rather than giving it to some teacher who may/may not help
  9. Why is spending/buyer the solution? I think my thoughts are along the lines of eb's joke Basically, I just don't see how spending/getting into debt is a solution to a problem caused by spending/too much debt
  10. thanks for the feedback. (good to know I'm not talking/typing to myself) I'm trading what IG call the mar-09 forward. It's basically exactly the same as the real futures contract, but with a point extra width each way for IG to collect on. Trading their mini version which is $5/point. Reason I trade this instead of their version of the XJO is to get used to how the real futures move, with the long term aim of trading in the real market and not with a CFD shop taking the other side. Although I've been going crap the last 2 days. Picked it to be a down day each morning before the open, and then for some reason tried to go long at every opportunity.
  11. thanks wren. I'll go check it out. Might be worth adding to my morning reading list.
  12. oh and here are my ramblings from the index today.... what a slooooooow day <H3 class="post-title entry-title">Thursday 5 Feb </H3>9:50am - so after a shit overnight/yesterday arvo, lets see if today can be any better. Opened down a fraction at around 3390. SUN is in a trading halt - another company raising capital. Where's all this extra capital come from? There's gotta be 20-30 bil raised over the last few months. 10:20am - down at 3380, 10 min oversold. 15min not quite. BHP/RIO charging, up 5/6.5%. Banks off a bit. 11:15am - that earlier setup might've been good for 25 points at the most, if you picked it perfectly. Been rangebound this morning, not a whole lot of action. 11:40am - was that a tradeable spike down into the 3360's? dunno. busy with work. 1:55pm - glad I've been busy (ish) with work, 10 point range for about 2 hours. 2:10pm - often something good comes out of money morning. Today it was just a simple one that stood out: "Remember, trading isn't about being right, it's about how much money you make." I might need to keep that in mind when I think that yesterday I picked the trend (was right) a couple of times, but the time I actually tried to trade I lost money. Index is still boring, currently 3377. 2:36pm - banging its head on the top of the range (3383) will it finally break out? 2:41pm - RALLLLYYYYY!!!!!!! 3387. Woo hoo. i am so bored. so.. do i trade countertrend, or breakout and with the trend? More likely I'll just go back to sleep 2:54pm - haha, what a slow day. Rally got up to the high 3490's (so about 20 points) and the 5/10min are showing overbought. 3:48pm - hmmm looks like that was a double top just before. Hard to know when to take them. It seems like they become visible after the candle has completed. But by that time it's already started the move. 4:20pm - after another crack at 3400 it finally fell away. dropped about 25 points. so there's still been a couple of moves that could've been profitable, but nothing that obvious (to me at least) or all that big. closed the day at 3371.
  13. wow, look at that chart! where'd you get that wren?
  14. what a boring day on the index today! 10 point range for hours I'm glad my real job has been slightly busy this morning boch/eb/whoever - I'd much rather tax cuts. Wouldn't you use the money better than the govt? I would say an individual is going to spend the money more wisely then if you were spending someone elses. There's a lot of people in debt, now seems a good time to pay it down. Sure it'll slow the economy, but thats how they move: up and down. A lot of people/media don't seem to understand the down phase in an economic cycle. Gives a chance to clear out the excesses, and clears out a few of the weaker companies (BNB anyone?), so we end up with the stronger/more innovative ones. Japan shows how well govt spending/low interest rates can work........
  15. eb/boch - why do you think any govt spending is going to do any good? this is tax they've taken from us and are now using it to put in insulation?????? ridiculous index has taken a bit of a tumble since the open, shame I missed it. I've still been updating my blog/trading diary (link in sig). Here's yesterday's post: 9:50 - Matched up about 25 points and promptly fell 15 points in about a minute. 10am - IG appears to have crapped out. Market's have bounced back up to the mid 80's on a strong open from CBA (7%) and ANZ (3%). NCM opened at 29.69, about 10% above the issue price (27). Nice quick return for the insto's that got involved. 10:30am - looks like IG have sorted themselves out now, lets see what the chart shows me.. Looks like a bit of a rally from the open. Up in the high 3490's now. Guess I'll wait for a short setup then if it keeps going hard over 3500. Lots of companies trying to raise cash these days, NCM yesterday, QAN and WDC in trading halts today. 10:40am - here it is. this 15min candle has gone from below 3490 to above 3520. CCI above 200. Short on at 3516.5 (probably not the best entry, would've been nicer over 3520) 10:50am - still rallying. got a second sell away at 3526. 10:55am - busy busy busy. work's busy. got stopped out on one trade. got a 3rd sell away. market's just asking for me to take cash. all happening. tension, the buzz, the crowd, the atmosphere 11:30am - a moment of calm. brought stops down to 3538.5, just above the high of the day. 11:45am - rallying. back up above 3530. still think short is the place to be, hopefully don't get my stop taken out along the way though 11:48am - shit. i'm out. stop too tight maybe? now it looks like there's a double top, and a cci divergence. stuff it, got back in at 3532.5, 10 point stop. 12 - that was quick, market keeps going up and i'm out. haven't done the sums yet, but probably down about 50 points. not a great morning... I still think the short trade is on and this is just pre-rates hype. The futures are up 2.5% for now! nuts.. I'm on the sidelines for now though. 12:20pm - still a CCI divergence. about 10 points below the high (in the 40's). Should I just put another short on and let it ride for the arvo? 12:50pm - did the sums, down 45 points on the day, 32.5 in Feb. Not as bad as I thought, but still not great. Got an email of forwarded news that krudd is stimulating to the tune of $42b! That'd have something to do with this morning's rally. And of course as I type, the market has fallen back under 3530, 20 points off the high of the day. 12:53pm - falling hard. currently at 3520. would've made back half my loss if i got short at 20 past like i thought (up in the 40's). Another day of right idea, wrong execution. 1:40pm - so i've found myself more suited to a counter-trend style of trading. But what about on days when there is a strong trend running (like this morning it rallied 90 points while I tried to short it). Is there a way to catch those trends, or just wait for my setups? Just thinking out loud.. With the market now down at 3510, all my entries would've shown a profit from this morning. There's some more of that 20/20 vision.. 2:30pm - rates cut 100bps. market fell a bit over 10 points on the news. Bounced back for most of it now. 3:05pm - down in the low 3480's now. That's almost 70 points from the high. A big trend up and then a big trend down today, and somehow I'm down cash for the day. hmmm... Getting towards oversold now, will wait and see what happens 4:25pm - futures getting smacked. now down on the day, in the 3440's. At one stage it was up 2.5%. All of those sells this morning look like crackers now! Might be worth a late long side punt, this selloff looks overdone. 153 just went through in one trade at 3437!! Someone just put through a biiig sell order and cleaned out the depth. 4:30pm - damn, missed an entry. Was trying for one in the 3430's. It bounced back up and ended the day at 3452, down 0.23%. There was over 200 on the bid at 52 in the last 20 seconds, all but 60 got cleaned out. There were some motivated sellers! Interesting to see how it reopens at 5:10. Big volume through today, 42,472 contracts.
  16. boring day today everyone too busy watching the superbowl
  17. I originally set a profit target of 3481 (25 points) on that trade yeseterday. Just before I left work I brought it in to 3490. index fell hard in the night session and took it out (and would've taken out my original wider one). But still, 16 points while sitting on the train is pretty nice. Waiting for an oversold this morning for a long scalp. Trying for the 'fade the gap' US 30 years are finally coming off. People finally realising 3% interest for 30 years is not the best deal going around....
  18. another big spike up after the match things are back to normal it seems. fade the opening gap. sit around all day. and then wait for the shenanigans once the stocks have shut. it looks way overbought, so i went short. bit of a crap entry at 3406 at about 20 past, closed about 10 points above that. knowing my luck i'll be stopped out once it reopens at 510
  19. these were my thoughts at about 2pm this arvo... pretty boring day on the index so far. after a 300 point rise since friday arvo it looks like it's time for a bit of a rest. sideways action for the last 2 hours is putting me to sleep. i missed out on the opening ride down this morning, gotta figure out how to get involved in those opening moves. possible double bottom here in the high 3470's. (which has since turned out to be false) stock option expiry today too, bhp's spent a fair bit of time planted on the 3100 strike. although i'm not a big believer that people push the stock price to a particular strike, it'd just cost too much pushing the stock price around to make enough back on the options.
  20. it's "distasteful" that he made money on the short side, but not for the execs who got their big bonuses on phoney ride up?
  21. you've gotta be careful with them though i'd be careful with more weakness expected in commercial property and any hint of funding problems will surely see them punished...?
  22. boring day yesterday so i think i got a bit over-eager to trade today took 2 longs earlier and got stopped out on both got a 3rd (and last for the day) on in the low 3350's. been quite teh sell-off this morning, just trying to play the bounce. also, started keep a diary of my trades to see how i go, so stuck it into a blog cause its easy to keep a record of, and hopefully find someone wiser than i to offer a few pointers. http://oztrading.blogspot.com/
  23. about 15 points off the lows now i was burnt 3 times on the way down this morning. lesson learned, on the sidelines for the rest of the day fade the gap open failed this morning unfortunately http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/sad.gif worked yesterday though http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif
  24. haha nice one! i've been waiting for a spike to get involved and just missed the one down towards 3500. would've been up about 20 points now oh well, it happens uh oh clarke's gone marsh is going pretty well though
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