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rene in geneva

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Everything posted by rene in geneva

  1. rene in geneva

    AAH

    Bryce my friend, they are already on the line! Lock, stock, the bleedin lot. http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif We is all waitin' for the news to start flowing, which must be soon.
  2. rene in geneva

    AAH

    Maybe we can send JNJ some dead roses. Makes you laugh doesn't it, JNJ the battling biotechs buddy! http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif
  3. rene in geneva

    AAH

    Fair enough 54. Cash is'nt bad though!? And I think your a bit harsh on Domantis. Reading Jarms comments makes you think that the existing TNF patents are side shows compared to the applications for the Domantis research. Remember, "If you hear hoofbeats, think horses,not zebras". http://67.15.69.120/html/emoticons/smile.gif
  4. rene in geneva

    AAH

    No merger,no dividend. It was only the sweetner for the LSPS (long suffering Peptech shareholders) to encourage them to agree to the deal. That is not to say it won't be forthcoming, but it certainly was not promised regardless of the merger outcome.
  5. rene in geneva

    AAH

    I think that is correct MM. JNJ are obviously playing to the letter of the arbitration process, and would love PTD to trip up and jeopardise a successful outcome. From AGX's viewpoint, it is not possible to complete a successful dd if one of the most valuable parts of the otherside is unable to be determined. No lawyer in his right mind would advise the board to be exposed to an accusation of that sort.
  6. rene in geneva

    AAH

    ........PTD was unable to provide sufficient information to enable AGX to determine the value of the potential ongoing royalty stream from Centocor. Any comments??
  7. rene in geneva

    AAH

    TERMINATION!!!! http://67.15.69.120/html/emoticons/thumbdown.gif
  8. rene in geneva

    STU

    Badfish, he is saying it could be double the present SP, based on the valuations of similar oil stocks. He has been accurate so far, and they do seem a well run outfit . The directors also have plenty of their own skin in the game (though obviously not at the same owing price as the punters!) Like all these tightly held stocks, the rises on good news are spectacular. The issue is getting out, and it really has to be done when you least feel like it. There is some speculation that the directors are hoping to build a compelling case for a take over to be initiated. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif
  9. I feel like I am talking to myself, but anyway......THIS IS A GOOD LOOKING CHART! Sorry for shouting.
  10. Hey Matt, I like Stockness Monster but it just too slow now. Where else would you suggest to go for info? Subscribe, or is there another solution? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif
  11. rene in geneva

    STU

    This is a good read on this junoir producer. Two oil finds in the Cooper Basin could add 50% to Stuart Petroleum's forecast cash flow for FY 2005. Stuart's 35% owned Derrilyn oil find in the Cooper Basin flowed 1,728 barrels a day of oil in a test of the Hutton formation, a well known and understood producer. This field looks like being linked by a small pipe to Santos' Limestone Creek oil field immediately to the East and could be flowing 1600 barrels a day in six weeks time. Its significance is an extra 560 barrels a day to Stuart, but this is new oil which is not yet hedged. Stuart had hedged most of its oil production at $43 a barrel vs today's price more than $10 a barrel higher. The profit margin on the Derrilyn oil is likely to be at least $30 a barrel with the oil price in A$ around present levels. A test of a deep gas and condensate section of Reg Sprigg West (STU 18%;BPT6%;STO52%) failed at the weekend after the testing tool became plugged. The partners will test this again but need some extra equipment to separate the gas and liquids. Meanwhile this week should see another three formations tested. The gas is interesting because there was also gas to the east at Reg Sprigg but none further east at Acrasia. STU75%/BPT25% control the ground to west along what looks to be developing as a significant oil/gas, fairway/province, with perhaps three drill targets being upgraded. Reg West looks to be another Acrasia size find, but production in the early months will be constrained by how much oil can be trucked to either Moomba, where Acrasia's oil now goes, or a shorter trip to a mooted receiving station on the existing oil pipe between Moomba and Keleary to the north. We believe this field will produce 800 barrels a day in this early stage, which is 180 barrels of $30 a barrel margin oil to Stuart. All this adds up to about $6m of cash flow a year to Stuart, or 10c a share. Stuart trades on 5x cash, so perhaps the two finds are worth 50c a share. STU65%:BPT35% is drilling Harpoono south west of Derrilyn and is scheduled to hit its target over the weekend, but the drill program then stops for three months as STU tries to digest the programme and works up the next drill programme including Worrior 2, a development well, and Arwon, an oil target adjacent Worrior. These are big potential wells. The STU price is static today because it takes a little work and knowledge to delve into what these bland announcements mean. STU's partner is Santos which has a big company approach to informing the market on fields like these, which are miniscule in terms of STO's operations, but as you can see from the above, have great significance to a smaller company. An extra 740 barrels a day of high margin oil should boost daily production to about 2500 barrels a day. Richard Morrow E,L&C Bailleau
  12. Not much downside here I feel. I wonder when the "big news" will be announced to the market. We have had the bad news, and now with a formidable amount of restructuring plus a share buyback supporting the SP (when neccessary) it seems one of the safer Bios. Whats your prediction Car Bro? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/icon14.gif
  13. rene in geneva

    AAH

    99% probability of success IMHO, Bloodclot. Mel stated this was clearly a case of 1&1 making 5 (and I suppose they all say that), but I am sure he has a few tasty announcements up his sleeve to be announced soon after the merger. I have put my money where my mouth is, and even considering the SP fading away recently, I am confident of the trajectory of the SP after August. Roll on merger,roll on! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif
  14. rene in geneva

    AAH

    That is an impressive number of shares!! Have you been accumulating during boom or gloom, or both? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif
  15. rene in geneva

    AAH

    The analysis of the potential dilution resulting from the merger reminds me of the BHP/BILLITON merger (not the same scale I know!). Everyone was worried about BHP being too generous to both BILLITON shareholders and their management. In the end it has proven to be a visionary move, with BHP shareholders now well rewarded for the merger. Could we be seeing the start of a similar outcome here? I think so. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif
  16. Whats up here Car Bro? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif
  17. rene in geneva

    AAH

    Why is the volume of trades in AGX much higher than PTD? Isn't the share register of PTD wide open in comparison. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif
  18. rene in geneva

    AAH

    Nicely said MO http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/rolleyes.gif
  19. rene in geneva

    STU

    Are you keeping your eye on this one flash? I believe the drilling results should be announced today. This is a very tightly held stock. I do wonder what the directors/owners see as the end game: buyout, merge? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif
  20. rene in geneva

    AAH

    Good advice In. This is not a stock to be betting on the timing of things going your way. I have owned this stock for 10 years, and have been constantly increasing my position. Whenever I have tried something clever with options etc., more times than not I have burnt my fingers. Being able to sit is much better than being forced to fold. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif
  21. rene in geneva

    AAH

    As I understand it, there is still upside based on the sales of Humira. MB has said that it is difficult to calculate if a royalty agreement would have been a better outcome. I think we can assume Abbott had a reasonable idea that the explosive sales potential of Humira meant that non royalty was the most compelling deal for them.
  22. rene in geneva

    AAH

    The amount of the performance payment is in the order of $5m pa, based on current sales rates.
  23. rene in geneva

    AAH

    The Abbott agreement specifically ruled out any reference to a royalty. A royalty was forgiven for a lump sum and a confidential annual performance payment. MB was willing to accept a non royalty agreement because it enabled PTD to be not so kind hearted to JNJ.
  24. rene in geneva

    AAH

    Thanks Slayer, much appreciated. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif
  25. rene in geneva

    AAH

    Best to contact the warrant issuer for the full details. There are many types and you need to fully educate yourself on points of danger, delta and expiry triggers.
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