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doc-gt

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  1. SP3 has been hitting 12 month highs of $0.115 per share over the last couple of days, on reasonable volume. That's quite an improvement on where it finished the FY some 7 weeks ago at $0.07 per share. There may be several reasons for the improvement in the SP, but I think it mostly relates to big increases in the company's probability weighted sales pipeline (PWSP) which jumped from > $1.8 million at 30 June 2021, to > $4 million at 2 August 2021, and then > $5 million at 9 August 2021. Might be worth keeping an eye on SP3 over the next one or two quarters to see whether the big moves in the company's PWSP will more than offset any stifling impacts from COVID lockdowns in various States.
  2. SP3 up 50% on today's announcement, with 20% of the register being turned over, on record volume.
  3. Thanks Nipper. I did have a hearty chuckle at the "Fort Knox" set-up at Vodafone's Moropa tower. No wonder two recent theft attempts at the site were unsuccessful. However, I can't help thinking that there must be much more cost effective ways of protecting such towers and associated energy generation and storage assets, and perhaps Spectur's HD5 cameras might fit the bill. By the way, I have been checking out images of many 4G tower assets of the 3 carriers over the last couple of days and only Optus 4G towers uniformly have the exact fencing and road base set up for their 4G towers that are seen in Spectur's discreet Facebook image of 10 August 2020. You never know when such tedious hack research work might lead to an investment edge, but that said, I also came across a wild card in the form of a news report from April this year suggesting that Singtel has charged Bank of America to find potential buyers for Optus' entire Australian telecommunication tower network, which just leaves me scratching my head with bemusement.
  4. Spectur (SP3) remains an enigma to me. Over the past year it has continued to drift down from 10 cents per share to a bottom of just under 5 cents per share, only a couple of months ago. At 5 cents per share, the company's market capitalisation was more or less on a par with annual revenue, which prima facie can often be suggestive of bargain basement territory. Yet the sellers kept bobbing their heads up. This syndrome developed a shred or two of logic when it was recently revealed that the former Chairman and particularly the former CEO were for whatever reasons progressively offloading millions of shares they had obtained gratis through a very "soft" revenue based performance scheme that was designed by them at the time the company was listed, and in the process contributed to the stock's feeble share price performance over the last 18 months. The former CEO has now been all but bought out of SP3, and the former Chairman has a much reduced holding. In any case the share price has finally seemed to stabilise at around 6 cents per share following a heavily oversubscribed and scaled back capital raising in July/August of this year, at 5 cents per share. This event was prefaced by a somewhat contrived (but still significant) cash flow positive result for the final quarter of 2019/20, in which the cost side was pared back on a number of fronts including wages and directors' fees. Government stimulus measures also contributed to the result. The capital raising was significant for a number of reasons - not least for the fact that all current directors subscribed for the maximum allocation of shares in the capital raising (always a good sign for a company's likely future performance). As for the operation of the business, the core growth element seems to have been provision of solar powered cameras with battery back-up and cloud based image, video and other data storage for site surveillance and asset protection in the building and construction industry, and more recently, provision of on-site audio and visual alerts at quite a number of mainly Western Australian beaches, for sharks that have been caught, tagged and released in drum line operations, and which subsequently register as being in the vicinity of one of the beaches that are subject to Spectur alerts. While the services provided to the building and construction industry are growing fairly nicely, the Covid 19 constraints are unlikely to be helping. Furthermore, larger building and construction clients who purchase the HD5 cameras tend not unexpectedly to move their cameras from job to job, as one job finishes and another one starts. This largely limits the potential growth in HD5 camera sales in the building and construction industry to new clients. So, what might be the major growth catalysts for SP3, now that financial issues have stabilised with the staunching of the cash burn and with the cash inflow from the recent placement and oversubscribed SPP? Well, clearly the very recent release of the STA6 camera with its range of artificial intelligence functions substantially broadens the scope of SP3's offering beyond simple surveillance and asset protection. However, there also remain a number of market segments for HD5 cameras that seem to be thus far untapped in Australia and these mainly relate to utilities infrastructure, such as dams, electricity substations, wind turbines, solar farms and telecommunication towers. Of these potential market segment examples, dams and electricity substations seem unlikely to require solar based camera surveillance and protection because of the connectivity of such facilities to the electricity grid. That factor may also apply to wind turbines and solar farms. But what about telecommunication towers? There are close to 10,000 telecommunication towers in rural Australia, many of which are in locations not conveniently adjacent to the electricity grid. Most of these are towers that service the 3G and 4G networks, but increasingly such towers are being augmented to accommodate the developing 5G network. In addition, the 5G network will require many new, albeit much smaller repeater towers to provide effective coverage. The development of the 5G network is plagued with controversy, which has attracted quite militant protest action, and to the extent that 3G and 4G towers are being used to host 5G equipment in rural areas that are not conveniently located near the electricity grid, those towers seem like fertile territory for expansion of SP3's HD5 camera sales on a potentially substantial scale. In fact, as a keen follower of Spectur's (SP3's) Facebook page, I was most intrigued to see the Facebook entry of 10 August 2020, which shows part of a barbed wire enclosure with a Spectur HD5 camera fitted with dual solar panels. The accompanying text states that: "Even in heavily treed areas we are able to increase the size of the array to ensure constant power generation throughout winter. Country Victoria is prime Spectur solution land" (https://www.facebook.com/specturltd/photos/pcb.3108742045861516/3108741382528249/?type=3&theater ). Although the photo doesn't show the asset that is being protected, the design of the fence (2 metre high galvanised steel mesh, topped with three horizontal lines of galvanised barbed wire), plus the ground cover in the enclosure of loose road base, is identical to the enclosure configuration I have seen at a number of 4G tower locations in Victoria, all of which makes me wonder whether Spectur is at the starting point of developing a major new market segment in the surveillance and asset protection market. I am suggesting a "starting point" because if this was an already developed market, the impact on Spectur's bottom line would already be "material" and therefore reportable to the ASX. Perhaps Spectur is playing possum with competitors until the company has time to establish a solid bridgehead in the potential market for protecting telecommunication towers in rural Australia.
  5. Nice market update from ACF released after hours yesterday and reflected in today's bump in the SP. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200525/pdf/...31k8cdrvfch.pdf Many boxes ticked from what the company forecast for 2H FY 2020 back in December 2019. Better than anticipated cost savings and good upside from civil infrastructure works. All delivered despite the broader turmoil created by Covid 19 in other areas of the economy.
  6. Nanosonics share price keeps holding up - even rising, despite the following downside features: - a PE ratio of > 150; - a company outlook that is clouded by the impacts of Covid-19, whereby NAN sales staff are currently less able to focus hospital purchasing departments on the need for trophon disinfection of ultrasound equipment because of the obvious requirement to prioritise the sourcing and purchase of Covid-19 personal protective equipment; - periodic revisions/delays to the timeline for the commercial release of Nanosonics next disinfection product. So what's providing such a seemingly strong floor under the Nanosonics share price? It's currently hovering near the $7 per share mark. Well, all I can think of is that investors, and particularly institutions are still "buying" the potential blockbuster story on Nanosonics next disinfection product to be commercialised, noting in particular that: 1) the current company timetable for release of the yet to be disclosed new product is FY21, (which could mean as soon as within the next two months); and, 2) both the Nanosonics CEO and Chairman have stated previously that the market for the new disinfection product could be as big or bigger than the market for the trophon product. Several research reports including a very detailed research report by UBS in 2019 have speculated that the most likely focus of the new Nanosonics product will be on endoscope cleaning and disinfection or on automation of parts of the endoscope cleaning and disinfection process. Endoscope cleaning and disinfection is currently a specialised, time consuming and manual task, the efficacy of which is complicated by the difficulty in determining whether endoscope lumens have been satisfactorily cleaned and disinfected. As a consequence, the process is highly reliant on judgements of the staff doing the cleaning/disinfecting. Those judgements can periodically be wrong with potentially catastrophic implications for cross contamination between patients requiring endoscopic procedures. So given the sheer global scale of endoscopic procedures, and the documented history of cross contamination issues that can be associated with current cleaning and disinfection regimes for endoscopic equipment, any product that improves efficacy, reliability and levels of automation in all or part of the endoscopic equipment cleaning and disinfection process is likely to be seen as a boon by medical practitioners using endoscopic equipment. In recent times, Nanosonics subsidiary Saban Ventures has had 3 inter-related patent applications published which describe equipment, processes, inputs and other proprietary aspects of an automated endoscope cleaning invention. Those patent applications are titled: 1) "Suspension Cleaning" (Patent application published on 20/6/20) http://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2019113634A1.html 2) "Apparatus and Method for Cleaning a Medical Device" (Patent application published on 23/4/20) http://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2020077406A1.html 3) "Endoscope Cleaning with Viscoelastic Liquid" (Patent application published on 23/4/20) http://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2020077403A1.html A few interesting bits and pieces that pique my interest in the possibility that the inventions/processes described in the links above may constitute the next product to be commercialised by Nanosonics are that: 1) Nanosonics has often stated that the next product to be commercialised won't be trophon technology related. In that regard the inventions/processes described in the links above are definitely not trophon technology related. 2). Two of the above three patent applications have only been published within the last 3 weeks, which indicates that the inventions/processes are about as contemporary as you can get. 3). A total of 15 Nanosonics staff have been engaged in aspects of one or more of the above linked inventions and processes, which is a very large R&D resource commitment for a company to outlay on anything other than something that is a serious candidate for product commercialisation. Could be a bit of food for thought for anyone who shares an interest in Nanosonics.
  7. Hi nipper The presentation released last Thursday to the ASX which underpinned a company webinar on the same day is well worth a look: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190919/pdf/...nh8cr13fj8l.pdf In a couple of days, the recording of the webinar should also be available on the Spectur web site. Among several interesting snippets in that webinar is a forecast by the company chairman, Darren Cooper, during question time, that Spectur should be cashflow positive by the end of FY 2020, and given that there were already a couple of CF+ months in FY 2019, I took this to mean CF+ by the end of FY20 for at least a full quarter.
  8. Another solid (but not spectacular) result for NAN was released today. With the SP up 25% on the announcement, it seemed to me like time to sweep a few crumbs off the table. I missed the investor conference call, but it seems like nothing new was announced in regard to the new disinfection product due for release by the end of the FY "subject to regulatory approval". So, it would appear in the meantime that the market is quite happy to embrace stratospheric valuations for NAN based on maintenance of the current growth trajectory and an expectation that a new but unspecified product will cause sizeable ripples somewhere in the disinfection market during FY 2021.
  9. A slightly better than forecast finish to 2018/19 for this still very unloved market minnow - https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190715/pdf/...mb2f7l6xqzp.pdf . I may well be missing something quite important, but I'm totally mystified as to what might be holding back the speculative end of the market from getting set with this one. Perhaps, Westpac found something untoward when it recently decided to backtrack on a very small loan facility to help the company smooth out expected near term lumpiness in working capital requirements...but if they did, I've certainly been unable to spot it. Anyway, as things currently stand, following today's solid 4th quarter results, I've been more than happy to increase my modest position and take a contrary view on whatever might be fuelling downside risk perceptions with SP3.
  10. Looks like the bullish activity with NAN today relates to a feature article on the company and the CEO in the AFR (see: https://www.afr.com/business/health/why-nan...20190515-p51nq1 )
  11. NAN is up nearly 7% today on solid volume. It's not far away from the all time price highs which it set shortly after the release of the half yearly report in February. Perhaps, a few of today's buyers are getting warm and fuzzy about the prospects for the second half, which concludes in a couple of weeks. In any case, the second half will need to be an absolute cracker, and/or there will need to be some substantive news revealed in the Annual Report due in August about the much anticipated new disinfection product(s) if the current out-sized valuation is going to continue to be accepted by the market.
  12. SP3 is a much unloved minnow, which is finally showing some signs of life after more than a year of heading south. In the last few weeks the SP has doubled on the back of promising news (see: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190508/pdf/...xw0xlxrf1t7.pdf and https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190507/pdf/...dqc9581ky7.pdf). Yet it remains a touch below its IPO price. With a market cap of still less than $10 million,SP3 might now be considered by some to represent a bit of value. Sales are beginning to break out and CF+ is within sight on the horizon. The recruitment of a new Managing Director from WOR (commencing 1/7/19) should also broaden the scope of contacts with the potential customer base.
  13. Hi dr daz That was a very handy half year result from NAN. Certainly better than I had expected. With a trailing PE ratio of nearly 200 a month before the half year results were announced, I think the SP would surely have withered if the NPAT expectations of analysts hadn't been well exceeded. Interestingly, in the wake of the half year results, the full year NPAT forecasts from the four analysts who cover NAN remain quite conservative, which probably explains why the forward PE ratios for FY19 (that I derived from Friday's NAN closing price of 4.17 and the earnings forecasts of each of the four analysts) remain well over 100. Bell Potter - 112 CGAU - 116 Morgans - 122 Wilsons - 136 I took a small amount off the table on the back of the half year earnings results and the consequent all time price highs, but still hold more than enough to be watching NAN with keen interest over the next 6 to 12 to 18 months. This years AGM in November might be a good one to attend as the long awaited and much anticipated new (non-trophon related) disinfection product will be a maximum of 7 months away from being commercially released and by that time you would have to expect that the company would be just about ready to announce what the new product is. Otherwise, there would be a risk that a description of the product would simply seep out from third parties involved in some of the pre-release marketing activities. If you look at Nanosonics patent library and net out trophon related patents(as the company has said the next disinfection product will not be trophon related), there's not too many new product candidates that seem to have "potential blockbuster" written over them, but there is one that causes me an itch that I find hard to scratch. I'll be interested to hear from you if you can spot it unprompted.
  14. One year on and another half yearly report is almost due. In the last 6 weeks, the SP has increased nearly 25% on solid volume, but on no news. And that's despite NAN remaining near the top 20 on Shortmans most shorted stocks list. Makes me wonder whether the steady accumulators may know or be surmising something positive which is not yet "out there", and if so, whether that will become apparent from the half yearly report, CEO presentation, and subsequent conference call with investors and analysts.
  15. Conversely, after keeping a casual eye on many of your thousands of posts on SYR over the last couple of years, it may not be too glib to suggest that hell will freeze over before you are able to identify anything positive about what SYR has done, is doing, or is planning to do :biggrin
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