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4thekids

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  1. You're running out of Dec mate! Maybe you're waiting to see how the Novel finishes. 4TK
  2. Hey Mark, You're the reason I check this site so looking forward to seeing your thoughts as a little Xmas present from you to us! 4TK
  3. Great to see you back K1, been checking hoping you'd post. SO what's your take on the next 6-12mths; are we seeing the start of your predictions. Is your book out yet? 4TK
  4. Mr MARK Kahuna, I'm sure you've been watching the recent bond action, your thoughts would be greatly appreciated, especially as you thought Bonds would be the eventual possible trigger for the great collapse. Is this the thin edge of the wedge? Regards, 4TK
  5. Mark (K1), You must have some comment for last night's action. Interested, as always, to get you insight. 4TK
  6. http://www.4thmedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/m05-jobs-part-480.png Participation Rate USA: Well that's what they say it is, so assume it's really even worse. The trend can't be ignored.
  7. FB mentioning a $1/month charge to use FB. Just imagine the revenue. Be careful shorting buy the dip stocks with untapped potential. 4TK
  8. If you thought the US markets were in their own world before, then don't look today. SPX and DJ30 up again the record highs outside of session. Undoubtedly K1 words are true and will come out in the fullness of time. However, when you are in this deep you just keep going. SPX up 12% from the 1810 mark. I remember K1 saying it could/would keep going maybe even 20% more. Well we're over half way there. 4TK
  9. [/size]It's interesting I've just started re-reading"House of Cards" the fall of Bear. Since this time I have seen debt transfer from a private sector crisis to a public sector holding and seen this debt increase exponentially. What ended Bear was counter parties saying no more debt finance without higher margin, this then transferred to some customers starting to redraw funds, which eventually led to a run on the bank and then failure. This capitulation of the one company happened fast but with little warning. Company Execs were oblivious to the real threat to the company almost up to the minute of failure. In fact the CEO, head traders etc openly lied to the market, press and employees about their situation. This continued up to the point of no return. Some of the early adopters started shorting the stock, many bought puts in fact they had to manufacture new puts because the vol was so high. These were 7-day puts $20+ out of the money. In fact it got to such a situation that had they not failed other companies may lose so much that they would fail. Bear's $18bil war chest of cash ($) quickly evaporated. The Fed refused to move to save them and they failed. I have been casting my mind to something Steven Maine said about this time on ABC Radio. He said this GFC is terrible but it will be nothing to the public sector debt crisis that will come next. In Bear terms this is how I see it ie following the same steps: Firstly the debt will need to be transferred, this has happened and is now artificially supplementing the SPX Companies with record share buy backs happening. Then debt will become toxic, but people won't realize this is happening aka (subprime in GFC terms). Look today at Junk Bonds, look at manipulation of interest rates and inflation data to keep US Treasury bonds low. Look at the recovery in European Bonds and the continued support from China and Japan in US bonds. All this is leading to toxic debt. Debt that can't be lent against because the prime asset (ie the US economy) is not worth the debt it has stacked against it. In turn, its engine room cannot generate the income required to even come close to paying it back. This is both in real and political terms. You need to realize that the US couldn't vote to decide whether to have a debate on gun control. Wait until they tackle taxes!! So your debt and assets are toxic. So what's next? It dawns on few people that you have a problem (voices in the wilderness). This happened with Bear but they weren't believed. How could an 80+ year old company that had only had one quarter of losses in all this time fail?? In our terms how could the biggest economy in the world fail it's unheard of.... or is it? Heard of Rome? These things do happen. Those in power are just like the Bear CEO and head managers. Fake it until youmake it. Keep lying until you find a solution. Up to the morning of Bear'sfailure they had offers from Saudi to bail them out. All management did was lie and falsify until it was too late. Nothing more or less is happening now in the US. From the politicians to the Fed to the markets. When you're in a hole sometimes it is easier to keep digging. So the point of failure: For Bear long and trusted friends finally said enough no more finance without margin, no more finance full stop. Give us our money back. This took months. In the macro setting where we are now this could take years; but rest assured what will start as a trickle will finish as a tsunami. The point of no return has been passed now it's just time. At some point countries will start saying no we're not buying US debt; well certainlynot at these levels. At some point they will say enough. Will they take a 50% haircut aka Germany and Greece? I don't know but when that happen Greek bonds were 20% plus and unemployment at 50% and cut cut cut cut. You need to pay the piper and if all the kids have left who's going to do this. The market is leading it will catch on. When it does some of us will be ready. When Bear failed many companies, and people, made Billions whilst others lost everything. I know what side of the ledger I want to be on. 4TK
  10. K1, Been a month since your last post. Your story seems to be coming together well. Russell peeling off and DAQ on the edge. Money flowing into SPX new highs again and bonds new highs (in the lows). CPI ok but PPI higher with the thinking being this will have to extend to the CPI soon? Plenty of bad weather to hide the real stories that are out there, daily volatility really picking up; stay away in May could quickly turning into Doom in June. Thoughts? 4TK
  11. 4thekids

    AVB

    Did the same small posy to start, huge overhang and issue in this stock. Story longtime in the making but is good. 4TK
  12. K1 & eBear, thanks for the response. Your arguments matched mine, which is good to hear. 4TK
  13. K1, Thanks as always for your in sight. I had a long debate with a good friend on the weekend as to whether the positive changes in the US oil/gas situation will be the savior of their economy. His points were cheap indigenous oil/gas that is not exported means the US will have a natural competitive advantage thereby leading to a huge manufacturing boom in the USA. This would then solve their employment, tax take, trade deficits and many other problems. Do you have any points on this change; I'm sure you have considered it in your research? Regards, 4TK
  14. Are we there yet? What say you Mr K1? I'm short the SPX with an 1893 average, nowhere near the position I wan so consolidation/distribution would suit here. 4TK
  15. Mark, I tried to short Dick Smith a while back and got told that you couldn't form my CFD provider. Probably something in that. Love your work. 4TK
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