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dimit

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Everything posted by dimit

  1. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: diana on Monday 07/07/08 12:04pm The money is there for feasibility. The options are all INL's. There is a good announcement coming. Probably a major turning point in SP.
  2. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: psychOlogic on Thursday 03/07/08 05:21pm check out; http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/jun202008.html could not copy image. He likes Zn a lot. Here is a chart of where I see various metals markets are Correlations between Price and Inventory Unclear Some accuse me of being overly technically oriented and ignorant of fundamentals. Fine, there are some that attribute base metal price action to inventory levels. If such a relationship is held true, zinc should not be trading at roughly 1/3 of its 2007 high of $2.2/lb, because the difference of inventory levels between now and then is negligible by historical standards. In fact, inventory levels have never been a good forecast for future metal prices. Buy Low – Sell High To borrow the overused Buffett line, “buy low, and sell highâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ. This is particularly applicable in commodity investment since metals such as zinc will never be made obsolete in my lifetime. Against rapid currency debasement and $4 trillion held at central banks of emerging-growth countries around the world, my view is: Oil and Copper – risky investment Gold and Silver – Good value and entering a blow off phase. Zinc, lead, and nickel - Current prices will prove to be extreme bargain (particularly zinc at 80 cents) looking back 2-3 years from now. Metals investment was the focus of my workshop at the Cambridge House Investment Conference in Vancouver (June 15-16). For those interested, the write-up of the conference and my workshop presentation can be accessed here. In part II, we shall examine how various resource equities (energy, base metals, precious metals) fared against the respective underlying commodities. Stay tuned!
  3. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: mercury on Saturday 28/06/08 07:02pm mercury, The Dutton & Associates report valued INL at 20c . It was conservative. Said it would tripple that when recycling project is completed. There are plans in place to keep INL cash flow +ve under any reasonable Zn price scenario. Downside side from here is not a real concern for me. I think al of bad news re delays has already hurt S/P as much as reasonably possible. Should spring up big time. May be CMR will do trick in less than a week.
  4. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: towie on Saturday 28/06/08 04:45pm towie, cannot find it in google news. Might have to buy Weekend Australian. 20 lines explaining Intec in a section on ; Clean tech "garbage a respectable investment" Alse covered were CMV, RCM, HMC, TOX and ANQ. cheers
  5. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: mango63 on Saturday 28/06/08 02:43pm page 8 of Special report of on Sustainable Investments in Weekend Australian , INL gets a mention.
  6. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: wintermute on Friday 27/06/08 02:57pm Amazing how the "project killer terminology" has appeared after rights issue. Before It was just engineering. I wonder how many "project killer" issues Zincox has. Did not stop them from raising funds. But they probably do have plan B's and C's laid out. I think we are dealing with Paralysis by Analysis. You can raise funds despite project killers, then divert funds to multiple other great projects should delays or dead ends come up. Investors are more than happy with option B approaches. Investors have to be informed however. Possible other targets for funds that investors would love IMO; 1) Buy out BSM 2) do a JV on Browns sulplide by Equity position. 3) Buy out big stake in Sardinia gold project. etc etc. Presumably these are well advanced. I think too much effort has gone in linear progress. Planning is not flexible enough. It will come good in the end, but investors do not need an 11 month delay in stage 1 irrespective of bundling stage 1 and 2).
  7. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: dreamer on Saturday 21/06/08 12:17am If it were not for Dave we would not have a forum. Remember that. Just contain criticism to his hair do.
  8. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: mango63 on Friday 20/06/08 08:42pm you are doing a fine job mango. Please keep it up.
  9. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: ericson on Friday 20/06/08 04:37pm OZ Minerals sees zinc prices to rebound from 2010 Bloomberg reported that OZ Minerals Limited expects prices of the metal to rebound from 2010 as supplies from mines dwindle. Mr Andrew Michelmore CEO of Zinifex said that "Certainly the zinc prices have come off a lot, there is a very bearish view in the market, an anticipated surplus this year and next year. However, as we look forward there is a shortage of zinc production in 2010, 2011 and we expect a considerable turnaround in prices.'' Credit Suisse Group analysts said that zinc has dropped 21% this year with between 15% and 20% of global production now costing above the current zinc price.
  10. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: bennie64 on Friday 20/06/08 11:27am welcome bennie, please introduce yourself and your agenga.
  11. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: juiceman on Wednesday 18/06/08 05:32pm Low Inventories to Support Metals Prices, Lehman's Widmer Says By Glenys Sim June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Metal inventories are set to remain well below historical averages this year following relatively healthy demand and insufficient supply additions, which should support prices, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The long-term average for reported copper inventories is 3.01 weeks of demand, and is expected to reach 1.25 weeks at year end, Michael Widmer, the bank's director of metals research, said. Stockpiles of copper at London Metal Exchange warehouses stood at 122,050 metric tons yesterday, equivalent to about 1.3 weeks of demand, Widmer wrote in a report released today. ``Even though the general macroeconomic backdrop may not be very strong, it is worth noting that China's industrial production expanded by 16 percent in May,'' Widmer said. ``In addition, the supply side remains problematic, which is reflected in sharply higher lead times for key mining equipment.'' The historical average of aluminum inventories is 5.43 weeks of demand, and may reach 3.34 weeks by the end of the year. At 1,068,650 tons, aluminum stockpiles are currently around 3.92 weeks of demand, Widmer said. ******************************************************************* Zinc and lead inventories are expected to be around 3.07 weeks and 1.25 weeks of demand at the end of the year, down from their long-term averages of 6.2 weeks and 3.82 weeks respectively, according to the report. ************************************************************************* The long-term average for nickel inventories is 9.32 weeks of demand. They are now equivalent to 7.53 weeks of demand, and are expected to rise to 7.74 weeks by the end of the year, said Widmer.
  12. In reply to: dimit on Saturday 14/06/08 11:19am battler, In my opinion. There will be a consolidation phase of a few days. Uptrend should continue. Watch for a breakout (up or down) from a small range of a few cents next few days. It may even break up today or in 2 weeks. More likely up . Thats my best guess.
  13. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: juiceman on Sunday 15/06/08 12:43am Juiceman "If not, I think we have a big problem." Intec can be profitable at whatever market share of the future Zn recycling business. I dont think we have a big problem. But why not be the biggest recycler when your technology allows that to happen? Why not be the most dominant. If Intec does have a cost (capital and running cost ) advantage, it shold be moving fast. Intec needs to believe that it can be biggest recycler and then make it happen. Putting questions of strategy on the forum is pointless. They will give the same answers until the strategy changes.
  14. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: juiceman on Saturday 14/06/08 03:07pm The INL approach to Zincox had been to assume that Zincox would never be as economic as INL. It seems however that Zincox has made some progress ; From Zincox' CEO address; "During the course of the year we confirmed the attractiveness of the Rotary Hearth Furnace and Melter (RHF&M) strategy we conceived in 2006 and we are increasingly convinced that this is a breakthrough in the way that zinc bearing steel industry waste (EAFD) is treated, both economically, because it is energy efficient, and environmentally because it produces three saleable products and no waste." So it seems that they can have a higher margin than previoulsy assumed. It is not known however whether they need higher capital costs. In any case, it is likely that can make money from EAF dust and grow at a sufficient rate to capture a big market share (or supply source share), if not the biggest. Zincox's effort in making alliances with steel mills may give them an edge in identifying the most lucrative locations and sources. In this respect Intec could probably do more. From Zincox' CEO address; "Considerable progress on the sourcing of dust around the world has been carried out over the past three years and steel mills in the regions have welcomed our “no waste†approach. Indeed we are increasingly confident that this strategy will enable us to realize our ambition to become the largest zinc recycling company in the world." Intec's focus of a "no waste solution" is on the money. The battle may end up won by the "fastest with the mostest" just like the American civil war. It will not necessarily go a to more efficient Tasmanian niche company. The implicit assumptions held by INL that it is neccessary to have the best weapon , or to get the best deal from the allies , before going to war , may need re- examination. Big Bold Plans such as "biggest recycler in the world" may turn out to be more important than being "the best in hydromettalurgy" Ideally Intec can achieve both.
  15. In reply to: battler on Friday 13/06/08 07:37pm will look at it later today battler
  16. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: dimit on Friday 13/06/08 11:39pm Recent chairmans statement from Zincox; --------------------------------------------- Chairman’s Statement I am delighted to announce a threefold increase in profits to £11.4 million (2006: £3.6 million) or 23.33 pence per share (2006: 8.61 pence per share) which now places us firmly among the most profitable companies on AIM. These profits were due to the ongoing deferred payments due from the sale of the Shaimerden mine, and these should continue to 2011 by which time our Jabali mine and first recycling projects should be in full production. The Shaimerden receipts together with funds already in our treasury allowed us to fully finance our equity contribution to the Jabali Mine development without recourse to shareholders. The balance of the US$216 million development was covered by our partners (48%) and the recent issuance of a novel and imaginative project bond which raised US$120 million. The project should be in production before the end of next year. This rapid development timetable has only been possible due to our decision early last year to order long lead time items of equipment, such as the mining fleet, which is already in the country. We have adopted a similar strategy for the development of our first recycling project, the Ohio Recycling Project, in the USA. In order to do this, we raised £20 million by a placing of new shares with new and existing institutional investors. These funds are being used to undertake advanced engineering, secure fabrication time with equipment manufacturers and to enable site work to commence in May 2008. We are now focusing on raising the balance of the development cost and if this is completed as planned, the project should commence production before the end of next year. During the course of the year we confirmed the attractiveness of the Rotary Hearth Furnace and Melter (RHF&M) strategy we conceived in 2006 and we are increasingly convinced that this is a breakthrough in the way that zinc bearing steel industry waste (EAFD) is treated, both economically, because it is energy efficient, and environmentally because it produces three saleable products and no waste. Considerable progress on the sourcing of dust around the world has been carried out over the past three years and steel mills in the regions have welcomed our “no waste†approach. Indeed we are increasingly confident that this strategy will enable us to realize our ambition to become the largest zinc recycling company in the world. In Turkey (Aliaga) we received the approval for our Environmental Impact Assessment and in Thailand we entered into supply option contracts for 100,000 tonnes of EAFD per annum. The progress we have made with our recycling plans was recognised by our peers at the 2007 annual Mining Journal awards for Outstanding Achievement, at which ZincOx won the award for sustainable development. Over the past two years, costs across the industry have risen dramatically and including the working capital, contingency and a cost overrun facility, the total financing requirement for the Jabali mine amounted to US$216 million. The Jabali mine will be the first major mining development in Yemen and will be one of the largest zinc mines in the Middle East. While mine developments are generally well suited to project finance, the particular circumstances at Jabali did not fulfil some of the standard prerequisites for this type of finance. The bond facility we put in place was specifically designed to attract specialist emerging market investors. We were able to find a formula that enhanced the returns to the bond holders by gearing them into the zinc price without dilution of our equity in the project. This is the first time such a bond has been used. Exotix, the specialist emerging market debt adviser, which arranged the bond, is keen to try to repeat a similar formula for the financing of our recycling projects located in other emerging markets such as Turkey and Thailand. Due to the very limited recourse of this structure we remain unconstrained at a corporate level and this gives us complete freedom when considering options for financing the Ohio project. 2 Our recycling strategy provides for zinc bearing hazardous waste from the steel industry to be converted into pig iron, slag and an intermediate product that can be processed into zinc either at our Big River Zinc refinery in the USA or, after some further treatment, by third party smelters. We believe we have a significant lead on any potential competitors but in order to maintain this lead for as long as possible we decided, over a year ago, to follow a strategy of multiple and integrated concurrent project developments at Ohio, Aliaga and Big River, for a total capital expenditure of over US$400 million. In order to realize these plans we sought a strong industrial strategic partner who could help to fund the developments by taking a direct interest in the projects. As stated in last year’s annual report, Teck Cominco, one of our largest shareholders, had expressed an interest to be that partner. During the first half of 2007, Teck Cominco carried out a detailed technical review that concluded very positively. Towards the end of the year, we were, therefore, surprised to learn that Teck Cominco wished to continue to follow the strategy as a shareholder in the Company but not as a project partner. They retain a seat on the board and membership of a joint technical committee. A review of our options for financing the three initial projects concluded that the period required to undertake due diligence by a new partner would be over six months, without any guarantee that such partner would ultimately commit to the projects. In order to have the greatest confidence in the rapid development of the first recycling project we have modified our strategy to that of a staggered development plan. By this approach the RHF&M could be developed as stand alone projects producing an intermediate product that could be cheaply upgraded into a concentrate attractive to third parties. Only when the RHF&Ms are being developed for the production of sufficient intermediate product to allow Big River to operate at full capacity will its redevelopment be considered. I should point out, however, that by staggered I do not mean sequential. That is to say, as soon as the first project is financed and its development is underway we would seek to finance and develop the second project; I would expect this to be well before the first project is commissioned. While the strategic partner approach would have simplified financing, partners would almost certainly have required rights over future projects that would have significantly reduced our medium and long term value in such projects. We now have the freedom to obtain the best financing or partnership deal on future projects unencumbered by prior agreements. The continuing demand for commodities from major emerging countries led by China seems to continue unabated. For as long as this is the case, the outlook for the zinc price is likely to remain strong. While some analysts are predicting a fall in the price over the next couple of years due to a slight over supply of metal, the margins for error are large as the price is a function of the balance of supply and demand and we believe the demand side estimate is little better than a guess. This is supported by the very wide variations in zinc price forecasts. There seems, however, to be little let up in the rising cost of production and that should insulate us from the very low prices we saw only five years ago. Given that zinc’s principal use is for galvanising steel products, I am encouraged by the current very high demand for steel as this must imply a high demand for zinc. Furthermore we have seen a good deal of consolidation in the ownership of zinc production in recent years and so perhaps we may expect some long awaited industry discipline. Over the course of the year we have added significantly to our senior staff as we gear up for the challenge of project development. In order to support our transition to a “producer†we are also in the process of strengthening our board and we recently announced the appointment of Rod Beddows as a non-executive director. As a founder of Beddows and Co, one of the foremost steel strategy consulting groups, Rod has immense industry experience and this will become increasingly useful as we grow our steel waste recycling business. As a fast growing company, the staff have worked extraordinarily hard to keep pace with the rate of our development and I would like to thank all staff for their efforts over the last year and for those that I am sure they will equally willingly give over the year to come. Andrew Woollett Chairman 25 April 2008
  17. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: ericson on Friday 13/06/08 04:49pm Zincox wants to be biggest Zinc recycler in the world. http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast...tory_id=2158450 "ZincOx secures $120m for Ohio plant; LONDON (SHARECAST) - ZincOx has bagged itself $120m from a placing and three year bond facility to help fund construction of the Ohio recycling plant. It has conditionally raised $72m ($36.4m) before expenses in a placing of shares at 175p each and arranged a $48m three-year bond facility. Existing cash resources and the deferred payments from the Shaimerden zinc oxide deposit in Kazakhstan will also be used to finance the plant build. Ohio will convert zinc-bearing hazardous waste from the steel industry into pig iron, slag and an intermediate zinc-bearing product. ZincOx expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of the project at full production will be $57.5m a year. “We are delighted to have, subject to shareholder approval, funding for use in construction of our first recycling project,†said ZincOx chairman Andrew Woollett. “This should enable the company to start production before the end of next year and move the company a step closer to realising its ambition to become the largest zinc recycling company in the world.â€ÂÂÂÂÂ
  18. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: Marsupial on Wednesday 11/06/08 04:53pm Fallen a lot but the market loves it at 5.0 Doom and gloom is good when its at its end. Big bounce usually follows. I think judging by todays vol @5 it very much looks that way
  19. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: Marsupial on Monday 09/06/08 11:15pm marsupial, and in the recycling project, the have an energy cost advantage and an endless supply of EAF dust without the comparable exploration costs of other Zn and Pb producers. In short they have a sustainable long term competitive advantage (in the words of Porter) on both their projects . Very good company to own for the long term and probably best time to buy for the short term. Cheers
  20. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: mercury on Monday 09/06/08 05:41pm Quick check of top 200 tells me that Top 200 very solid. Few punters who don't understand stock and don't want to fork out dough, are the sellers. When uptrend begins in earnest and top 200 are soild as their actions so far would indicate, there will be a scramble for the stock. CMR you may do the trick.
  21. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    From MacQuarie Video, PW said cost of stage 1+2 approx $75m to $100m. Judging by what some estimates of revenues from this forum. Pay back period is less than one year.
  22. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: ead83 on Wednesday 04/06/08 07:18pm Hi ead83, I would say that cost estimates are property of CMR. I guess we should wait till CMR assess options and announces choice. The gambling comparison with horse racing is typical of concerted down ramping. Seen in threads of many good stocks when prtices are around lows. I would say use low prices to enter, volatility to trade if you wish. But build volume.
  23. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: rmryan on Wednesday 04/06/08 02:48pm rmryan, If process engineers warned you months ago they have been proved wrong by industrial scale demo plant. You are talking as if process has been discredited . That is sycophany. Demo plant producess Zn at a very low cost. Almost lowest in industry it seems. That is the best they can do at this stage of development ans deserve congrats for that.
  24. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    In reply to: healyn on Tuesday 03/06/08 09:23pm I bet there will be nothing in agreement between Chinese and JRV that says the Chinese cannot use INL technology.
  25. dimit

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    jrv director sold jrv shares during negotiations as I remember
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