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theflasherman

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Everything posted by theflasherman

  1. Hi Triage Regarding my statement: There are two ways that dodgy statistics come about. By incompetence or by design... I do not believe incompetence played a role, therefore the only conclusion is that they were manipulated.
  2. Zio Ricco A reply some posts of yours a while back: I don't think anyone has a problem cleaning up the environment. What is at issue here is the solution.... Carbon trading will do nothing to change carbon emissions except enrich a small few. Also, the kind of additional taxes being proposed are horrific. I think we can all put up with a moderate, reasoned response to the issue rather than knee jerk reactions based on massively over exaggerated problems. You are very wrong on this. There are a massive number of scientists who disagree and have formally rallied against the Kyoto Protocol and at the Copenhagen summit. Many of the names on the IPCC report were used falsely and some scientists sued to get their name removed. Also many 'scientist' names on the report are actually lobbyists. Science is not based on a majority view as you clearly pointed out in one of your earlier posts. The problem with this is that science involves peer review and peer review has clearly been obstructed by pro climate change scientists. Again, I believe a layman can understand science and do some analysis. You don't have to be a university graduate in a specific area with letters after you name to understand something. I would be very loathe to trust anyone who claims they are an expert in the field of climate change when so little is understood about it. I suspect you might trust a financial expert who claims they can manage your money.... oh... and then lose 50%+ of your retirement savings??? Nevermind, the guy went to University, put on an expensive suit and speaks well. He's got letters after his name, yeah... it is someone you should trust as an expert. C'mon! In conclusion, to my eye, and I'm well versed in statistics, they have been clearly manipulated for politcal goals. I build financial models for a living and I'm accutely aware of the intentional an unintentional errors and biases. One thing to be aware of in this debate is the way the media swing from one extreme to another to create some form of sensationalism. Just remember that every story has an arc and you are merely reading a soap opera loosely based on facts. The fact is that most stories you read were handed to journalists who reprint with little or no editing. I would say that 90% of journalism today has massive innaccuracies and even bare faced lies. This applies to both sides of this debate.
  3. I find it very odd how the market is so easily soothed when important political dignataries rally around and say soothing, but ultimately meaningless words. This Greece debt issue is just that same as the 'Banker Bailout'. Funny thing is someone ultimately has to pay. Perhaps we'll (I live in the UK) end up with nationalising even more debt, transfering the problem to the taxpayer but ultimately delaying the inevitable. In any event, Greece struggling to pay debt is not a big issue on it's own. It's the context in which it sits. Throw in most of the rest of Europe, the UK and the US (especially California) and the problem is compounded. The debt markets mispriced the risk in the past so perhaps it is currently doing so. Just my opinion. Let's see what's in store from the Iranians today... (http://www.buzztracker.com/story/dd7e7899f...ab148a0b37/iran)
  4. Hi Matt Hopefully with the below I have run away off topic. Please feel free to moderate if I have. I know you're not accusing anyone of this directly but this is the kind of thing which really gets on my tits. I am white, deemed by society to be well educated and on a decent wicket all things considered. However, I find most people on this topic are not on any end of the political spectrum. We are seeking the truth, something which is obscured by spin on both sides. I do not align myself with a "side" but I assess each policy/argument on its merits. On its merits the only firm conclusion I can come to on global warming is that we don't fully understand our weather system yet and we need to do more research. Research which is transparent, not as in the Climategate emails prove that past research was not transparent. We need to get away from this left/right wing paradigm. In fact the left has merged so much with the right that there is very little real difference, and the more research one does one understands why this is so. I think what I believe and many others I have met is that we are questioning the fundamentals of our existence and who we are ruled by. I abhor the intrusion of government in my life in every way but I don't believe that makes me right wing. I have seen the family destroyed by the state and it pains me. I have seen a return to state sponsored torture in the country I live in. I have seen continued warmongering on false pretexts. However, I appreciate some of the good things the state provided for me, such as cheap education and health care on a few occasions. I actually do believe that some services are better provided by the state. But in conclusion, I have to say that the state has gone too far. The setting up of another beauracracy at the global level to, at least initially, manage climate issues, takes it even further.
  5. Hi Mosaic That chart is also misleading. It need both lines to be rebased to a common index. By splitting the lines (as per Al Gore in An Inconvenient Truth) it looks like CO2 causes warming which is false as you point out. Arty, not sure of your choice of colour scheme! I remember some interesting times building economic and financial models. Basically you can get a plausible story to suit any agenda from a model. Charts are evil! Kahuna, I've stopped believing anything in the financial media, especially economic stats. Reuters, which the vast majority of traders, business types get their information from has an obvious agenda. Overall, I have no problem with the assertion that we are affecting our environment. That much is obvious from the way we have cleared forest and built huge cities. However, I am convinced carbon dioxide is not going to cause catastrophic failure of our environment. The universe is full of random events which we cannot prevent and somehow we survive. We are immensely adaptable as a whole. The issue has been taken on board and hyped by those with another agenda. That is the conclusion I come to from because of the proven misuse and misrepresented statistical data. Simple as that.
  6. Hi guys I think the real agenda's of the Copenhagen summit have now become clear. Advocates for world population control seem to have hijacked it. The eugenisists have arisen again... As a basic right of liberty I feel that no government or coercive regime should ever restrict anyone from having children. Back onto global warming. I am concerned for our environment but I don't believe we are having anything but a very mild effect of world temperature after doing a fair amount of reading on the subject. Al Gore has been caught out again for scaremongering: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/envi...icle6956783.ece The hype and exaggerration is just astounding. However, I believe we do need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and get rid of our reliance on cars. Simply to improve our quality of life. These are things I would encourage to improve the environment. (feel free to criticise!! ). Target large areas for re-forestation.Invest in studies to examine to role that vegetation in the oceans plays in consuming and releasing carbon dioxide.Encourage a move to solar generation. I've long been an advocate to that despite being a skeptic of man made global warming. Burning of fossil fuels is dirty and does pollute the environment, leading to a reduced quality of life. Solar also gives you independence from the grid. Apart from the current cost, what's not to like about it?!?! Tax incentives to nudge people in this direction gently would be great.Likewise, encourage wind generation.Points 3 & 4 supplemented with incentivised research into battery technology.Incentivise research into burning fossil fuels better.Building of dedicated cycle lanes to make cycling safer. I believe that fear of being run over by a truck is the biggest impediment to people getting out of their cars. I for one won't cycle to work because of this. An increase in cycling would also address obesity issues.
  7. Hi Mosaic I don't know if anyone has posted this link before (I don't have time to trawl throught he entire thread) but here is some analysis of Darwin Airport. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-...at-darwin-zero/ It is a good description of the kind of fudges that can be used. I have built many financial models in the past and I know what people do to influence their outcomes. The article above was like a trip down memory lane for me. One thing I've wondered is why they use a chart which has the difference from the average on the y axis. Why not have raw temperature..... I feel that can distort the picture. Of the things I have looked at, it seems clear to me that the world has cooled in the last few years. We are now cooler than the 1930s. We are much cooler than the Medieval warm period. And call me a simpleton, but if cardon dioxide were really an issue, why don't we plant more trees which would consume it? Finally, my main concern is that if carbon were really an issue then why is a trading scheme being implemented... why not just ban or phase out polluting industries, perhaps giving them tax concessions to cover the cost of switching to 'greener' sources. The pursuit of the cap and trade policy is the biggest smoking gun to me.
  8. Hi Flower The story seems to be evolving and is worth keeping an eye on. Chances are they are forgeries, but the consequences for the USD are massive if they are legitimate and can be linked to a large sovereign holder. If you wanted to unload it would makes sense to public support US Treasuries (pump) and privately sell (dump) so there is certainly a possible motive. Anyway, let's see how it pans out. Regarding Switzerland, even passport control at the airports is lax if you have an European Union passport. I've been waved through just from them seeing the cover of the passport is from from the UK!
  9. Interesting story unfolding.... very interesting if the bonds are not forgeries given Japan's recent comments about supporting US Treasuries.... http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/6/1...-to-Switzerland The strangest thing is why they were searched. I've travelled from Milan into Switzerland on the train and apart from the passport check there was no baggage check. Also, a lot of borders around Switzerland are not even patrolled so it seems inconceivable that they should be caught without a tip-off.
  10. Got to love the green shoots propoganda when you still have banks failing. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Floridas-Ban...set=&ccode= Long term precious guys are now starting to think of the "summer lull" and we have Comex options expiry next week but it looks all rather bullish to me for the short term. The 950 level holding was very important technically.
  11. Some big resistance in the 920s to work through. Think it needs to close above 920 and perhaps wait for 930 to fall first.
  12. From the Fed.... not surprising given we just had a decent rally in the stock markets. How a market can rally on that appalling GDP number, I am lost. I understand that a good chunk of it was from inventory draw downs, which should show a rebound in numbers ahead, however, even adjusting for that it is a terrible number. Dare I suggest that this is one final rally in the stock markets before the next catalyst swings into town for a significant push lower.... Too much of accentuating the positive in a very negative environment.
  13. Another sign that the equity markets are pumped up on steroids at the moment.... American Express announced their first quarter results. 32c per share, down 64% from a year ago. Within that they added $600m to lending reserves. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=con...id=aE7h5VW_vXBE). This beat analyst expectations of 13c per share. It looks to me that they have successfully cut costs to achieve this. Also, Moody's cut American Express credit rating saying: (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home) None of this sounds like a company which is turning around. Without cutting costs it would be a mess. So... how can this justify a 1 day rise of 21% in the share price, back to a level last seen in November? (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=AXP%3AUS). Something just doesn't add up.... PeterH, if Russia has leased enough vault space for 10k oz of gold, that could well be the biggest piece of bullish news we could see this year! If you have any links to the item it would be greatly appreciated. The problem for Russia is that if this news becomes common knowledge the gold price will rally hard and get away from them. Flower, even though they were domestic purchases, the gold is still withdrawn from world circulation, so bullish. It's a shame we were not given a breakdown of purchases, year-by-year. Zac, I have also heard, anecdotally, that Chinese manufacturing is a mess with some factories laying off over half of their staff. It seems clear to me that China and Russia have a very different agenda than US/Europe regarding gold and currency and long term stability and are prepared to act in their own interest. Finally, there was some chunky buying of Dec 9 (expire end of November) 1000 and 1200 gold call options on Comex on Thursday.
  14. breaking news: Most banks are well capitalised.... well, which are the ones outside of "most"? Seems that some banks are going to go cap in hand to the equity markets. that should push their share prices down, if there is an appetite at all for their shares. Also, "well capitalised"... I suppose that means a reserve ratio which is still a fraction of total liabilities. I notice that after a few girations the S&P Financials Index has recovered to be currently up 1.5% on the day. I also note that the VIX (volatiltity index) spiked. Normally this goes up when equities go down.... I wonder who is wrong this time...
  15. Anyone else notice the cup and handle pattern on silver? Still forming the handle. Of course, the gold correlation always throws a spanner in the silver chat, but I think a good run up on gold could really move silver substantially higher.
  16. Maybe this isn't the right place, but seems to be factors in the economy affect gold, and i'm a gold watcher. I haven't written anything of note for some while on the chat boards so thought I would, more or less, just have a rant. First, and I feel many have lost sight of this. Concerning equities, we are in a bear market. Watching CNBC/Bloomberg TV I feel too many people are trying to convince themselves that we have found the bottom. The justification, in most cases is a slower rate of decline in key economic measures. I still feel that the absolute numbers are bearish. In particular, unemployment has not peaked and I'm not surprised the rate of decline has fallen given the amount of money thrown into the pot. However, what troubles me is when the next downwave will hit. I think we see a big decline in equities in the next couple of months. Second, economic numbers appear to me to be fudged. I just saw the Durable Good orders come out "better than expectations", which is the line hitting the wires. However, the prior period numbers are quietly moved lower, thus the overall, 2 month total, is worse than expectations. I've noticed this pattern appear more and more. Third, headline bank earnings are beating expectations, with the exception of Morgan Stanley. However, once you dig into the results you see worrying signs regarding loan books, one off benefits, changes in accounting periods, changes in accounting policy and profits being generated from trading. Trading profits are bound to be better given the wider spreads that dealers are now quoting and getting away with in volatile markets. So, operations are profitable which is good, but how are the loan books? Fourth, structural wealth storage patterns are changing. I agree with many on here that the announced IMF gold sale was, in part designed, to keep a lid on gold to avoid a run on fiat money. I even doubt the gold will be sold. Another factor of note is the Chinese are changing their reserve holdings, slowly and stealthily. Of note, the Chinese have been stockpiling copper. I really feel the Chinese are going to assert themselves massively over the next few years acquiring assets and paying for them in USD. Fifth, do you trust the people stating that things are turning around? What would happen if the full scale of the banking issues were announced? Right... blind panic. Because the fractional banking system is the biggest ponzi scheme around (move over Madoff), should it unwind then it would create absolute panic. The whole system is a confidence trick. What we are seeing is a desperate attempt to shore up confidence. Overall, I believe that equities get hit hard in another wave of panic selling in the next couple of months. I believe that is the only conclusion one can come to, if you just ask yourself if we are in a bullish or bearish market. I'll leave it up to you to decide what that means for gold.
  17. Krumbs In the words of someone else I heard.... this guy is a "nut job". Stress test results are not completed yet. Look to early May for some signs on it. Key yesterday was Bank of America results. They have provisioned even more for bad loans. Banks are making money but their bad loans are going to get a whole lot worse.
  18. Hi Arty Yeah, those fibonacci lines work well for gold trading. Around current levels of 925 I probably feel that the risk is to the downside but it looks like investment demand is continuing, becoming an even more crowded trade. Option implied volatilities have fallen in the last few days and with plenty of gamma around we'll probably be range bound for a while. If it does break that 883 level, I expect some follow through. However, there certainly seemed to be support just below 900 which is promising. Of note is that Ecuador bought a big chunk of gold at the beginning of the year which, no doubt, helped push gold higher. I expect other sovereigns will add and I suspect even the IMF's 400 tonnes may be taken up by someone, say China. What better way to get a big chunk without moving the market. Sovereign buying may just be what investment buyers need to push gold higher.
  19. US$500 - US$2,500..... not much of a range! One of the most ridiculous bits of forecasting I've heard.
  20. Next resistance at 883. It is going to be interesting to see where the pain points are for those who bought in the mid to high 900s. Some decent open interest in the April 805 puts on Comex, expiry 26 March 09.
  21. What happens when GLD sells? Nice stop loss pummelling over the last few days. All the weak longs getting taken out, further proof of the froth in the market. 930 was the key resistance on the way up, so it will be interesting to see if it now holds as support. I couldn't believe how cheap front end gold volatitlity was in the options market. I suspect it is hurting those who are short.
  22. http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/feb232009B.html Jewellery demand versus investment demand. Who will win?
  23. arty You are right. There never was a shortage of gold, only gold at the retail level. Gold in retail sizes was leaving bank vaults around the world, but there was still plenty of gold. If I want to buy wholesale gold, it has never been a problem and is very liquid. Premiums for 400 oz bars were tiny to move your gold to "allocated". Ultimately, to make a profit on your investment you have to sell it. I wonder what would happen when the ETF investors head for the door... Again it is all about confidence. When confidence is around that gold is going up we won't see any withdrawls, however, if confidence gets shot you could see a nasty pullback. Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting gold will go up or down, but observing that we are seeing some mania around the gold scene at the moment, not dissimilar to many other asset classes over the years. Short/Medium term direction will be governed by how strong the mania is versus reductions in demand from other areas.
  24. Flower I agree with you about the moose grass IPO's. We saw a whole wave on the the back of the base metals run up, many of which were sitting on mediocre assay results. Beware of promoters of new gold IPOs. If you believe that gold is going higher then stick to the majors who have a long history (some better than others). I don't know if anyone has posted this before but here are the so-called pro's forecasts for this year: http://www.lbma.org.uk/pubs/forecasts You would have to say that many of those forecasts imply a pretty decent pullback but experts are just about always wrong in the markets! The only thing I would say is that sometimes flows dominate the fundamentals (I agree with your fundamentals Flower). When the herd get too long there maybe few left to buy, thus a stop loss triggered move can occur. Of course it can work in reverse too. I suspect a pull back to 960 may occur in the short term, possibly 930, but I would look for a break of 1010, sustained for an hour as invalidating that. All that I conclude is that it is going to be a volatile year!
  25. IMHO, what we are seeing in the gold market is the mid-stages of a bubble. Typically gold demand is driven by jewellery and jewellery demand is falling of a cliff as typical luxury items do in a recession. This is being replaced by "investment demand". Now let me run a parallel. Residential property is for living in. Now what did "investment demand" do to the housing market... If you want to check out typical demand/supply factors see below. http://www.invest.gold.org/sites/en/why_go...and_and_supply/ I agree with all of the inflation arguments and do believe we are going to see some decent inflation going forward, thus making a case for buying gold. However, with gold already putting on a decent gain this year, is not a decent portion of that priced in now? All investment demand driven investments rely on the greater fool theory. It could very well be that the greater fool has not been found yet and gold could have some way to go to the upside. However, I would be cautious at this point and if I were long, I'd be taking some off the table. If I were to take a position in gold I would buy short dated volatility (buy a 1 month call and put with a strike slightly above current spot price, commonly known as a straddle). I believe that at this point we push on or we have a correction back down to 930. Front end volatility has also been sold well below longer dated volatility and I would expect that spread to correct. Alternatively, I would look at selling a 1100/1250 call spread, short dated.
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