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King Baz

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  1. Sangomar Rufisque was soo good that HUNT thought it was not worth their while. The larger interest for FAR is undoubtebly a positive as it allows it to farm down, however at the expense of the operator's WI is very bad. I suspect HUNT were not able to secure a farmout, and moved on. IMO, it is almost certain that FAR will not sink a well into this acreage before 2011, IF AT ALL. I'm biased, that is my simple response. Don't even start me on the conspiracies!!! LOL
  2. In reply to: annaliese on Tuesday 25/11/08 10:15am It is interesting annaliese. I put the GIP @ Cobra question to AB and he suggested that the final figure was likely to be much closer to the P-90 reserve figure of 600bcf. AB mentioned that because both of the wells had been drilled to the east of the field (because it was in an updip location), and because the accululation had not been penetrated in the western flanks this proportion of the reserves are still 3P, and will only make it to 2P with drilling. Given the massive gas intersection and upside at depth due to no GWC being encountered, this is looking very significant. Like you say, at some stage in the next 10months we are going to be given a 500bcf GIP figure. On the note of the bird, AED have some very aggressive plans and lets hope P-12 is a gusher, results could come through of a major oil column any day now. Tapis up 8.5%, and with a weak AUD it all goes to the bottomline for NWE. NWE are probably looking at a 1000% increase in oil production in the next 3 - 6months thanks to Puffin (3,000bopd to 30,000bopd). It is all coming together. See you all on Thursday, and hopefully Roger impresses. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif
  3. In reply to: King Baz on Friday 21/11/08 04:34pm Hi all, For those interested in Cobra, please refer to the Encore oil AGM presentation released today. http://www.encoreoil.co.uk/assets_cm/files...on_nov_2008.pdf With regards to Cobra l thought it was increasingly positive to the point that they are very optimistic of development and commercialisation. On slide 8, they claim Cobra to be a success and had this to say. QUOTE Cobra completed drilling Well tested at dry gas rate of 1.1mmscfd and established a total gas column of >350 feet Significant volume in place likely requiring reservoir stimulation (fraccing programme) to make discovery commercial Range of 100-300-600 BCF GIIP Note the reserve range. There is additional information slides 12 and 13, but of particular note. Given no GWC was encountered and there are gas saturations well below the depth used for calculated reserves and by looking at the aerial extent (slide 13) to both the west and also Python to the south, l think it is a safe bet that there is 450bcf of GIP, with maybe 250bcf recoverable, with NWE's share 63bcf, smack bang in the North Sea right underneath some excellent infrastructure. Encore repeatedly talk about commercialisation subject to fraccing . . . and given the massive gas interval approximately 500ft, with a decent slanted directional horizontal and MHF stimulation there is a very good chance of some very good flow rates. There is no point Encore drilling this before Sep 2009, because that is when Dana/E.ON pipeline from Babbage will be constructed with first gas in Q1 2010. But once Cobra is stimulated if rates are considered commercial, it could be developed very rapidly. In recent weeks and months, NWE's two core projects, Puffin and Cobra have improved significantly only to see the SP retreat with everything else. I'm going to weather the storm, and when the rough seas settle and the sun comes out, the good ship Norwest will be in fine shape. In 12months time, subject to satisfactory progress at these to projects, 50c is not unreasonable provided equity markets still exist!
  4. more of a risk management measure . . . l hold a lof of NWE in the portfolio.
  5. In reply to: Bellas on Friday 21/11/08 03:17pm Bellas - many thanks for your valuable contribution . . . l make it to melb most weekends but reside in qld during the week, so was unable to make the AGM unfortunately, this year. Brierley - In the last 2months l have purchased almost 200,000 AED's purely based on cash backing and my view of major upside. In the same period l have only bought a few NWE's, but obviously hold plenty of NWE. The market has AED very very wrong. There is a lof of oil in AC/P22, and AED's costs will be very low once production is boosted.
  6. Whether current production is halted for a few months (or not) is not a really big deal in my mind. Given that current production is 3200bopd, and they are aiming for 30,000bopd +++ (both P-12 and P-13 have expected flowrates of 20,000bopd EACH) . . . lots, of wells, lots of reserves . . . AED have just released the P-12 progress report and they are making excellent progress. At this rate they will intersect oil sands next week! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif Keep the faith all. NWE is only months away from earning big dollars forever, expense free. Good weekend all
  7. QUOTE (Duster @ Friday 21/11/08 10:30am) Duster - refer to my last post and see what l highlighted in bold! Excellent confidence, that despite the bloodbath in the market, AED sees that it has the greatest potential, and l do agree. Thay have more than 400mmbo of undrilled prospects in AC/P22, and plenty of cash. Why would you spend it on something else, when you could reduce the number of shares on offer? This confidence in the Puffin field is great news for AED.
  8. FROM: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/busin...551-643,00.html AED Oil executives say the company is seeking acquisitions to complement its Puffin oilfield in the Browse Basin off Western Australia. This is despite a tumultuous year on the stock market. AED Oil managing director Ken Tregonning said the company was considering purchases in Australia and the region. "We have a large network. There is a very high deal flow to us. So far, though, we have not seen anything that on a dollar invested, dollar return basis matches Puffin," Mr Tregonning said yesterday. AED Oil executive chairman David Dix said the company's cash position would support new acquisitions following the $US560 million ($862 million) sale of 60 per cent of its assets to Chinese energy giant Sinopec. The company had about $300million in the bank and wanted to maintain a healthy balance sheet but would consider "synergistic acquisitions", Mr Dix said. "We are in a position to join with others who have short-term funding needs," he said. AED shares have fallen from more than $11 in October to about $1 yesterday. Mr Dix said the company had restructured and repositioned itself since the last annual meeting, in a "difficult" 12 months. "On a macro level, a number of events occurred that further affected your company," he told shareholders at the annual meeting yesterday. "Of particular note is the fall in the international oil price, the decline in equity finance markets and the restraints on debt capital markets. "As our company was geared for success, adversity had an impact on stakeholders and ultimately jeopardised the company's financial viability," he said. Since first oil flowed from Puffin in October last year, the field had yielded about 2 million barrels of oil, which had been sold at a premium to West Texas Intermediate and Tapis crude prices, he said. AED expected future development of the new areas in Puffin -- which AED's executive said was "awash with oil" -- would require a second floating production, storage and offloading vessel. AED shares rose 9c to close at $1.08. ALSO: Despite the market's waning confidence in junior oil explorers, AED's managing director, Ken Tregonning, said he remained confident about exploration in the area after the big find at Puffin 11. from, http://business.smh.com.au/business/oil-ex...81119-6bjn.html
  9. In reply to: mosaic1996 on Wednesday 19/11/08 02:51pm mosaic - put down the broad brush mate. I prefer Identified oil Resources and Reserves in three locations (all AED 40% working interest): Puffin NE in AC/L6 ‐ NE1(Puffin ‐5, 7 & 8) & NE2 (Puffin ‐3) Puffin SW in AC/L6 ‐ Upper UK1a reservoir (Puffin ‐2 & 9; Puffin ‐10; Puffin ‐11) ‐ Possible MK reservoir (Puffin ‐11) ‐ Lower LK1a reservoir (Puffin ‐9; Puffin ‐10 & 11) Note the additional sand. From Pg: 7 of AGM presentation. From, Pg: 13 Puffin 11 Lower Sand section (DST#1a perfs) is considered an LK1a sandstone, the massive reservoir sand across the Puffin Horst from SW to NE and beyond. If you also look at the graphic on pg8, AED indicate that the UK1a in P2 and P9 are connected, and in turn the UK1a in P-2 is connected to that in P-10 which in turn is connected to P-11. AED are saying that they are still interpreting the new seismic over P-9, and are still modelling recent results, and l do concede that the P-2 / P-9 connection is not 100% certain, but on the same note it certainly has not been disproved. I have previously clarified this with AED. The term 'seperate' is used in the context of 'additional', not 'unrelated' . . . afterall these oil prone sands are found throughout much of the block, and in regions up to 75m in thickness. Note, l am not saying that P-2 and P-9 are 100% connected to P-11, all l am saying is that the P-11 result does not disprove the P-2/P-9 connection theory, and that is correct. Without any validation, just your own interpretation you seem to endorse your own view. AED up 9% with the market down 1% . . . hopefully AED keeps going.
  10. In reply to: raauul on Wednesday 19/11/08 12:33pm raauul - Front-Puffin capacity is only 30,000bopd, but may be upgraded with swivel ... to handle the 40,000bopd. mosaic - l disagree. You seem to form opinions based on a higher wisdom, rather than listening to what the company are telling you. Just like you deciding that P-2 and P-9 were definitely not connected, based on the P-11 sidetrack, but as you will see from today's announcement this is not necessarily the case. I thought today's presentation was very bullish, and KT's presentation was very upbeat from what l have heard. Not to mention the spare $300m AED hold and are looking at spending a proportion on acquisitions. With only 5% of that sum they could theoretically buy NWE http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/puke.gif Drilling P-12 and even P-13 would have to be relatively low risk given they are drilling into a producing reservoir!
  11. In reply to: Brierley on Wednesday 19/11/08 09:41am Brierley, The only reason P-11 is not going to be brought online sooner is because, P-12 and P-13 will meet the full FPSO capacity of 30,000bopd by mid 2009! The review of P-11 was very very bullish with an additional oil sand in addition to the LK1a, and major additional potential. There was also a mention of 60,000bopd in FPSO capacity with the MV1 available. Given the rapid earning profile, it would be VERY easy for NWE to increase the Investec debt facility . . . no problem at all as far as l am concerned.
  12. Excellent AED presentation just out. P-13 to be drilled in Q2 . . . They are very pleased with P-11, P-12 going well. AED are going to drill a lot of wells, and note the remark that the field is ' AWASH WITH OIL ' !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I love it. Puffin is looking like a monster field, there is massive potential to recover a lot of oil here and we are at the beginning of a rapid increase in drilling, production and addition to reserves.
  13. Note these figures are 'most-likely' GIP figures, and we have previously seen figures of 450-550bcf bandied around by NWE/Encore. There is a large prospect to the north of Cobra within the same block, close to Babbage, and there is also the large Python prospect to the south. This is a large gas field and the fracced horizontal will determine how good the project is. At least there is some real good upside in this project, and NWE have a large equity position.
  14. In reply to: lockykaren on Monday 17/11/08 12:50pm what that little news? An extra 100bcf+ interpreted to be part of the same Cobra structure. And the pipeline synergies with regards to development. And the increasingly positive development view (not that the block has been awarded). http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif All we need is for the USD collapse pushing up POO, then we can ride the increasing flow of Puffin revenues all the way to the North Sea where we have a large equity interest in a large gas field. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif
  15. In reply to: Brierley on Friday 14/11/08 11:53am There you go Brierley, the Wilcraft is on site at P-12 and has already drilled 491m - that is excellent progress. At this rate, we should get major oil shows announcement in about 2-3weeks. NWE still has not announced the award of Block48 1/c (split), neither has Encore oil. I am going to attempt to speak to AB at Encore Oil tonight.
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