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Oavde

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  1. Oavde

    AAH

    I'd laugh if a small pocket of remaining shareholders threatened by compulsory acquisition manage to challenge it and demand the "fair price" from the independent valuation. I assume all people caving in now must think it is inevitable that there is no better option than to give in. That maybe they will get 5c more than the small offer they initially resisted. That there are no other interested parties and that there is no blue sky for AHH. I find this odd because I imagine most people selling now have held a very long time, bought at higher prices and now are finally caving in. If Cephalon had not come along, how much longer would they have held on - years?
  2. Oavde

    AAH

    OH yeah I am not paying much attention I meant next significant date approximate e.g start of trials, money runs out etc.... down the line If they can't buy then it could fade down in price, for 6 months be real boring
  3. Oavde

    AAH

    If the offer closes, will Cephalon be interested in buying more shares on market, that is the question. There won't be an absolute floor, but if they are buyers, there will be interest and some kind of stability to it. Some kind of upward pressure (if it dips) You'd expect most sellers/potential sellers/people fed up have bailed out with the offer. So you would not expect many sellers left in the market after the offer ends. So in theory, not much downward pressure. There should not be any rampaging buyers. No urgent interest. Nothing imminent. So not terribly strong upward pressure. What does that leave : doldrums, hovering between 1.20 - 1.40 for months, or something like that. But of course anything could happen. Anyone got a date for when the next big thing will happen with AAH?
  4. Oavde

    AAH

    The real opportunity cost is the time your money is caught up in this, waiting for the offer to play out, not merely 2c or so. A good play on this was 80c to 1.35ish, not 1.35ish to 1.40ish maybe. That play is over. Anything could happen now.
  5. Oavde

    AAH

    It is not meant to be easy, for anyone - it is meant to be efficient, a way to establish a fair price, and a way for people to exit/enter at the price they have determined is comfortable for them, whether that be an accurate one or not. But this is just theory, not reality, of course that is rare. It would be interesting to establish a new kind of market. A "massive amount of shares" market. So, the existing sharemarket is for small packages of shares at current prices. But the 2nd market, companies can say "I want to buy 20% of the shares at X price" and people can throw their preferences to accept that offer into the pool. There could be several big buyers or sellers at once, showing their hand. Of course, they wouldn't show their hand, they would show the opposite of their hand in an attempt to offload / buy shares at a favourable price. Which is why my crazy idea isn't done. But it would be funny to see massive chunks of shares to be bought / sold at various prices in the depth.
  6. Oavde

    AAH

    My God! A pharmaceutical company that isn't nice! What is the world coming to! This is just business, unfortunately, that is how business works. If you are nice and "fair", you don't get the money, and the money is the power, so eventually all nice are crushed like ants. How dramatic! If you were a Cephalon shareholder you would have thought this was all great, good job done. I don't think Arana board did a good job, haven't thought so for a loooong time. Actually, did they EVER do a good job? I don't like off-market takeovers/bids/shennanegins. If they want to buy it, it should be on market, visible to all, none of this sudden announcement that some people knew about beforehand rubbish. I like market efficiency and this is an example of the opposite, and a lot of sharesbought at a price that they would not have achieved in an on-market takeover, in my opinion only, because the act of buying and a rising price would have had others jumping in - instead of just a few who may have known in advance, but even if that was not the case, the market dynamics would have been different. Instead you get the artificial surge in shareprice, and the fear campaign of calls/letters/threat to withdraw the offer. Screw that. On market only. Well, now the remaining 40% they want might be on-market, so interesting to see how that goes. If Cephalon had not come along though, shareprice might still be under $1.00 and could languish there for ages. Is that what people want? And why the heck would anyone be selling NOW? Price hasn't changed. Situation has, but not price. Come on guys, price is what matters? Sell when it falls, buy when it rises. Quickly reverse when you realise you got it wrong. Will it fall now? Who knows. It might hold over $1.35 if people think that Cephalon will buy if it falls below (or too far below) $1.35 .... if it dips to say $1.20, then buyers might jump in anticipating Cephalon will start buying. It might have a bit of a floor to it. These are sure to be interesting times .....
  7. Oavde

    AAH

    Yes, it is unbelievable that anyone in this market would be willing to sit around for months hoping to get another 5c. Are you telling me that in 3 months you can't find anything out there that can't yield a 3.7% swing? Because it is 3.7% on the 1.35 you have already achieved. A good point was made that now 50% - the weakest 50% of shareholders has been removed. Those who are fed up, willing to bail out. This should be a time when the people currently holding are the toughest bunch of shareholders (apart from those waiting for 5cents). It will be interesting to see what happens next. It should stay steady at least until this 5c plays out completely.
  8. Oavde

    AAH

    I don't know why anyone is even bothering pursuing a 5c movement on a 1.35 stock in a market that is totally overflowing with opportunities. Previously, AAH board perhaps not the best in the world, not so great at getting good results for shareholders. However, now, with Cephalon at 50%+, a majority, there is going to be a board that does NOT have the shareholders interests at heart - they will have Cephalons' interests at heart, in all matters. Who knows what direction they will take things in, what they will push for, vote on, do. Is this better for the product lines and research and development? Maybe. Is this better for "AAH" - whatever that is - or AAH holders? I doubt it is better. There may be opportunities to trade it, price swings etc... and you could argue "what is good for AAH is now good for Cephalon", but I assure you, what is better for Cephalon is not particularly good for AAH. I am not saying this will happen, but if I was a majority shareholder, I'd want to bleed the company dry, sell off assetts to "mates (my other companies), cheap license deals etc... put forward "AAH has no money" arguments, fleece shareholders, dilute it whatever it took to get hold of all the value of the company at minimal cost to self and maximum benefit. Wouldn't you? To what degree any of that is legal, moral, possible or likely is irrelevant - it is probably their desire to do so. Call me cynical but I have not seen many acts of charity in the corporate world, and I don't expect them. Will Cephalon bust their balls to get a good result for AAH shareholders, when they only get 50% of the benefit? Or will they bust their balls to get more benefits, a greater share of the goodness. So ... don't count on anything, don't close your eyes, watch what happens and don't have some foregone conclusion that things will be all rosy. They might. They might not.
  9. Oavde

    AAH

    Liverpool, as I said I have no problem with your strategy or anyone else's strategy. Yes, if you are buying a biotech stock with the intention of waiting for big developments, you need to take into account all those theoretical future developments. Buy it, and wait for them to play out. Maybe not being concerned with ups and downs. Maybe not concerned with trying to improve your position by 5%, 10%, 20% whatever during the years. Is this an opportunity though for people to sell at $1.35 on market and wait for the price to fade back down if the takeover fails? And buy back at a lower price? Or is this a time when the price will go up steadily, takeover or no? If you accept the offer, can you buy back in the future at a better price? Or, can you take your money, use it elsewhere for 6 months, and buy back then at say $1.50 and be on board for big future developments in the company? Or is it better to just sit on it? I am just rambling, wondering at the many strategies people out there must have going through their heads. I am curious to see how it plays out. Ultimately, I want to see funds poured into research and development. Progress made. Money not wasted. Fat cats, unfed. And loyalty rewarded. Rapidly. Unfortunately, that is not what you tend to see. Instead you get fat cats having a rort, backdoor deals, palms greased, loyal shareholders lied to and burnt, money wasted, good products languishing, developments slowed, ownership creeping to overseas. OK that is quite a negative assessment and it is general too, not specifically aimed at AAH. I'd settle for full disclosure, timely announcements and a board that has the shareholders' interests at heart?!?!?!
  10. Oavde

    AAH

    People are just plain nuts. Also, 90% of the traders in the world are monkeys. Monkeys, working out of Taronga Zoo. I have seen them! A thousand monkeys typing for a thousand years can write shakespear. Ten thousand monkeys across the world can beat the markets! Or to put it another way, people are so varied in their opinions and decisions you may as well have random monkeys. I am not too keen on these situations, I would rather the takeover be on the market. You want it, buy it on the market dammit. That is what the market is for. Not backdoor dealings. Not that it is really backdoor, but you know what I mean.
  11. Oavde

    AAH

    That is OK Liverpool I am not making a judgement on anyone's decision whether they hold or sell or whatever they do. The value of the company ... the value of AAH, the entire company, averaged out over the number of shares, is more than $1.35 in my opinion. But that is only if the entire company sells completely. And also you are factoring in future value based on future developments. The shareprice never reflects this theoretical value. It reflects only the buyers and sellers who are active at this moment in time. It reflects their need to cash in their shares for cold hard cash vs hopes to hold on vs buyers greedy to get some vs every other opportunity in the market at the moment. When it was 80c that is not the value of the company, that was just the price when things were dull. OK so 50% of the company might go for $1.35 ... but not 90% for $1.40 (or $1.45 or whatever the heck they pretend it is). Because taking away 50% of the shareholders, you just took out the "bottom 50%", the ones most willing to part with it. Now you are left with the top 50% who are holding on like lunatics. The most tenacious people are left. And I don't think they are as easy to convince. Question is, how many are there and how hard are they holding on to their shares. Also I wonder, how many plan to simply hold on, hope Cephalon get 50%, and then hope to merely continue holding shares ...expecting a pretty good base of $1.35 to hold for months/years until products are realised? Seems to be a good situation, you've taken out the 50% of people who are fed up with waiting, got a single holder of 50%+ who are obviously keen on getting things done blah blah blah .... so how many people are holding out for this? With no intention of accepting the offer? In other words, they think the offer is good, but by holding out they will realise something even better? Even if they only wait a few months? I am not thinking that, I am just wondering how many others are thinking that. I find it hard to believe that there are 30-50% of holders who are just damned tenacious, like Liverpool.
  12. Oavde

    AAH

    I would like to see AAH do it alone and be a huge success story in coming years. How good is the board, though, and how tough will things become in the future? I do not know. Also, that is quite awhile away. So it would be a brave holder wanting to hold out through the downs and ups over the next few years(?) rather than take some cash and run. Especially in this juicy crazy volatile market where you could take your pick of some good investments that will probably outperform even a perfect AAH over the same period of time. If you accept the $1.35 offer from Cephalon then you ~might~ get more cents if they get to 90%. Alternatively, if you sell on market today at $1.35 you get no such potential extra monies from Cephalon getting 90%. So .... most people have been holding out a bit hoping for increased offers, counter-bid etc... but you know, it looks like none of that will happen and Cephalon seem to be trying to drive home the point there will be NO increase and NO extension and NO more bids from rivals and MAKE UP YOUR DAMNED MIND. And, oh, look, on market is currently real bad. Yeah, you like them grapes? You want it to fall again? Remember your pain! If we don't get it you are left with a sack of potatoes. Cephalon can walk away from this with a profit if it all falls through, as some suggested, due to their currency hedging. Reaping the strength of the mighty Oz dollar. So they are laughing. Maybe they will come back with a takeover bid at $1.10 in a few months after the price collapses. Who knows. Now some could read this and think I am pro-takeover, but as I said in the first paragraph I am not pro-takeover. But I am prudent. I cannot see a way that people will get a better price per share on AAH for a loooong time. And if it takes a year and you get a lot more per share, that is nice, but you could have shifted all that cash into another stock - of which there are many - that are probably going to do very well during the same time. Or short sell others that are dying. This is not really the time to be sitting on something that is doing nothing. But I know that is not the personality of many holders here and probably of many holders out there, who won't sell until it has fully realised its initial promises from years before. These hold-outs must be frustrating the heck out of Cephalon, which I find quite amusing. Whatever happens, to put it bluntly, the board sucks. WTF have they been doing, how they have handled this, what they spend money on, seems like a big gravy train to me. I think they are going to need a grilling whatever happens next. By the way, if Cephalon does get it, I don't think it will be good for AAH shareholders who continue to hold shares in it. I think they will see all sorts of ... redirection of assets. But I do think it will be good for the drugs themselves, because I think things will power on. If Cephalon do not get it, as things develop and get closer to fruition, other buyers will step in - if things are going well. But how long will that take? Any timescales?
  13. Oavde

    AAH

    Bryce Whetton, a private investor from Adelaide who is one of the leaders of the push against Cephalon, said he was not influenced by the latest announcement. "We're still standing firm," he said. GO Bryce!
  14. Oavde

    AAH

    Another company should make a rival bid - and offer $1.80 per share ... that is actually $1.20 per share, if you take out 5c for the dividend, multiplied by your date of birth added to the number I first thought of. They will get tonnes of takers if they offer $1.80! And then can sell it on to Cephalon at $1.40, minues the 5c that we already have in our wallets. Making a profit of 15c per share. Which is the same as 7c per share, once you take out my cut for coming up with the idea. Going to be interesting though, to see how this all plays out.
  15. Oavde

    AAH

    Could they extend it further? They suggest not, but there is a bit of an escape clause there, allowing them to extend it. Whatever the case, they are playing hardball, as expected. Back to 80c methinks -edit- OK well I don't want to panick people into accepting the offer, because I think Cephalon deserve to fail, and I hate them. But I thiink this latest move is aimed at causing downwards pressure on the price and is working. And might drive people to accept the offer. so they might get 50%
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