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Everything posted by atleast16

  1. Those of you interested in the West vs China relationship, this 2 part article gives a good background of US policy and why China is taking a stance in Spratleys. The second part is coming out later this week. Those lazy to read...my summary..The Wolfowitz Doctrine which came out after end of Cold War with the collapse of USSR, essentially enshrines US domination of the world, preventing the rise of a rival by ANY means. https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/07/01/opin...t-china/1805220
  2. atleast16


    I hope that GXY won't end up in a similar way to my "once upon a time" investment in CST (are some of the posters then still around?) GXY has finally got their eggs laid out in a row and all they have to do is to nature it along till it hatches, and shareholders will be happy. However, I can easily see a bigger co make an offer to the major shareholders and reap bigger rewards down the track.
  3. Australia has around 160,000 NET migration (ABS 2014-2015), I see no reason why 150,000 pa is not sustainable in the next few year. So...ASSUMING 3 person per household unit, that is 30,000 places that is required. Also assuming the split of the growth is Syd/Melb/Bris/others is 30/30/20/20, Sydney & Mel would need 9,000 units each per yr to house the growth. So, will you see a crash coming? I think not. A slowdown, yes, but within 1-2 yrs, it will soak all the excess there is.
  4. Hi Whisper, The only info I got from Vic was to the question I asked....how to get to the investorvote site as I did not have the reference no to login. As indicated in my earlier post, I did vote "No" to the initial scheme. I am now voting "Yes". I hope to channel my efforts to finding another co/s where I can invest most of of the payout.
  5. Thanks to Forrest, I managed to change my online vote. The control number is 184912 which is what I needed!
  6. Just wasted 20 minutes waiting on the phone to computershare to clarify a problem I have...I threw away the voting information when I did my on-line vote a few weeks ago. Hence, I now do not have the reference no needed for the investorvote website. I notice that there is no link from my holdings information on computershare website, to the voting page. If I don't change my vote this few days, I won't get to do it as I'm travelling. Any suggestions, other than having to wait for a person to answer my question on the phone??
  7. The reasoning that make me vote yes are a combination of: The higher offer makes it LESS bitter as it now covers some part of my cost (I have been buying from $1.60 many, many moons ago)As Gavin Ross indicated, 11% of the shares are now with the hedge fund. If the vote goes "No", most likely the share price will stay below the offer price for at least a year or more...unless there is a new play. My 2 cents...If the vote goes "Yes", what's stopping a bidding war (wouldn't it be nice) as the hedge fund can deliver this block of shares?
  8. Thanks to all for the higher price. Not the $4 I wanted but the increased bid is welcomed. I will accept it and move on. Life is too short and precious.............
  9. One of the emails ..... You have recently visited InvestorVote to cast your vote online. Please find confirmation below. Company: Cellestis Limited Date lodged: 23/06/2011 Your vote was recorded as follows: Appointee 1: the Chairman of the Meeting Item 1 "That pursuant to and in accordance...AGAINST Thank you for voting. Computershare Investor Services
  10. I too have a bit of interest in CST for at least 8 yrs and I am a bit disappointed at $3.55. At this time my "hope" for a takeover price would be more in the mark of $4.50. However, the directors may have no choice in making a sell recommendation because it can be shown that a) the offer is at a "significant premium" to what has been trading at, and b) there is no other offer in place. If they did not do this, it can be shown to be negligent in their duties if the offer was rejected and the buyer walks away and no other offer came up. We live in a market economy and all the relevant facts are available for all to assess the "value" of CST. So the best way for someone or entity to show their belief that it is under priced is to buy on the market and let the price stay higher than $3.55. My piggy bank is empty, so $3.55 is what I may have to accept.....so if anyone have contacts or influence in other big biotechs, let them know there's a bargain to be had downunder. Let the bidding war begin!
  11. On the assumption you have $30k to put into the market with a 8-12mths timeframe, would CST be a company you would put the $ into (taking a risk/reward assessment)? I was asked this question when I suggested to a friend that they look into CST. My comments was...the dividend "paid" justifies the current price. If they announce the next interim at say 5-6 cents (my hope...if not more, if they don't continue to keep increasing their reserves) then it will move into the $3's. Other views?
  12. atleast16


    This depends on the timeframe. Profits announced are about 50% down from last year. Not surprising when you look at the market conditions. However, as our good PM would say, moving forward, they did indicate that there are signs for an improvement in pulp demand. There was alot of shares changing hands when their price was in the 35-50 cents range, so there will be a lot of temptation for short-term holders to cash in their profits on any upside price movements. I would buy on weakness in the current price as I feel it's not a company that will go bust....my 2 cents.
  13. atleast16


    If it's 70% of CURRENT free cash is OK for this stock, as long as it's not 70% of your portfolio. Hope it does a Gunns (GNS) for you. Noticed that some of the other directors were doing some buying as well at these levels. So, the signs are not all bad. Their forecast profit is about 20% of their stated target last year, so not surprising for the dumping of shares. I may consider buying some too at these levels for the up side.
  14. This is a beautiful summary. Simple and concise. Gosh, I'm surprised if some finance journalist don't pick this up for their article!
  15. I dipped into my piggy bank today to do my bit in making sure the resistance holds
  16. One observation from an auction in Frankston (abt 30km from Melb) past weekend. A smallish 2br unit was passed in, last bid was around $230k....very affordable you would think. The sellers were looking for around $280k. There was certainly no "heat" in the bidding there. The start of a cooling off, or cannot read from one isolated event?
  17. atleast16


    Any comment about the 2 directors getting 5% of GROSS revenue? This could mean that even if a deal was done at a loss to prove the technology, they still get rewarded. May have a conflict of interest issue?
  18. My observation, the overall price rise in Melbourne correlates with the increase in immigration and foreign students. I did some "back of the envelope" arithmetic: I guesstimate that there are about 90,000 foreign students in Melb. Assuming a number of 3 students to one apartment/flat house, that's 30,000 houses. If there was a 10% drop in numbers, it would account for 3,000 empty lodgings. Imagine what would happen to rent prices if all of these came to the market within 2-3 months. Lower rental, means lower valuations. "No that won't happen" I hear a bird say.... Why do you think that it warrants the premier of the state to fly to india on the recent racial bashings. A possibility (remote, but real with some wierdos around), some random racial profile attacks on chinese & indian students, occurring within 1-2 months. If this happens, I can assure you that the numbers I raise will happen. Go talk to your friends or contact that work in unis/colleges and ask them if indian students enrolments are down on same time last year. I don't want this to happen as I love the diversity that Melb provides.
  19. atleast16


    I do agree that they need some bigger numbers. Their announced expansion to the US mean that they have to put aside at least $10M just to cover their first year of operation. Looking at their employee numbers, it's HUGE overheads they have. Anyway, I did pay up a small amount for my super in the SPP. So I am here hoping for some reasonable upside.
  20. Maybe someone can clarify this point. I remember reading an article when the GFC just started, that govt GDP figures (hence all statistics that uses it eg. % of debt/GDP) are errorneous and misleading because of derivatives. A simple explanation was given like (my version) $100 of debt was sold on for $200, was sold on for $400. So what was $100 is now accounted as $700. No new houses, goods was produced by the derivatives, out of nowhere, the GDP went up exponentially. There is reluctance by politicians to address this issue as the govt of the day would not like to be seen that their country’s GDP figure went backwards on their watch, and having to explain to the man in the streets what has occurred. So, a seemingly reasonable net debt of 15% gives the common person a false sense of security on the country’s economic standing. Obviously, the main countries affected are first world "developed" economies ...telling "poorer" nations how to suck eggs.
  21. May have to "re-adjust" my view about prices coming down, or at least the level it may drop. Found out that new federal legislation that came into effect recently (this year?) that now makes it easier for foreigners to buy up existing property. Previously, they can only buy new developments. However, the new rules allow even temporary residents (eg. students..where their parents could send money to them) to buy existing properties. So now the locals have to compete with overseas money. The new money from asia will keep prices up.
  22. atleast16


    ISF may be one of the largest IT health company, but like ERG (bless it's soul) is not given much recognition by health officials here in Aust. Do anyone have a listing of the major hospitals in Aust that uses them or even a % figure of public hospitals that uses it?
  23. These are great statistics! The demand for TST test will be a lot lower (replaced by QFT), if someone can convince a change in procedures for TB testing of foreign medical students. A friend's family member was accepted into 1st yr medical at Uni NSW, and they have to get a TST test. Just a rough estimate, there would be at least a thousand new international medical students coming to Aust every year. I suspect other health related courses would also require TB testing, which would mean quite a significant volume of testing year on year (...good repeat business!!)
  24. I have previously expressed my view similar to BC on my "perceived" lack of marketing expertise in the CST organisation. This did not mean that I stopped or reduced my investment in the Co. On the contrary, I have been topping up when funds allow me to since the beginning of the year. The primary reason is I do believe that sales will continue to increase, though not exponentially as we all hope, but strong enough that market will soon take notice. It will be of great interest to me if/when the company gives an indication of how sales in Japan is performing. It will give us another perspective of how our company handles the sales and logistics in this very important market. Happy to be holding….but phew, the dip to sub-$2 was a bit distressing. Luckily I did not lose all faith and did top up a bit….sometimes wondering if only a handful of us was keeping the price from falling even further ;-) …..joking only!
  25. Having just got on to this thread, I do agree with your comments here about getting into the investment property market in the near term (next 6-18months). I would like to see at least a 10-15% correction in the lower priced housing market (under $500k) as I see there is no rush to get one now: Extract from today's SMH article: The Reserve Bank last month said arrears rates on mortgages continued to climb, but were at relatively low levels overall. About 20,000 mortgage-holders were more than 90 days behind on their loan at the end of December, compared with 13,000 the year before.
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