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clarebatt

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Everything posted by clarebatt

  1. my thoughts on FLT are not fully developed, so the following should be read as ramblings only. . . if you subscribe to Warren Buffett's view that "if you are not prepared to hold a stock for ten years, you shouldn't even think about holding it for ten minutes". . . .then i reckon you would struggle to buy FLT tomorrow, even if it falls another dollar. The internet sales phenomenon is not going to be a storm in a teacup, for there is no reason that i can see why the trend should reverse. i suspect that travel agents are going to be gradually squeezed out of the market for commodity products like airline tickets. However, agents will continue to have a role in selling packaged holidays, particularly to baby boomers who have not caught on to the internet, and still like the security of the high street shopfront. . . . the only question is how quickly this niche will grow or shrink in coming years.
  2. clarebatt

    PVA

    i think that you will find that food is a pretty low margin business relative to pharma. if you are looking at precedents for companies that have tried to do food additives and have had some success, look at CLV. . . . there could be others, i just don't know. in short, it is a pretty long hard road.
  3. clarebatt

    PVA

    big question now is whether a margin-call driven shakeout happens as it did back in april/may. . . . there doesn't appear to be much buying support at present.
  4. clarebatt

    PVA

    Pess You indirectly make a point that I was thinking about over the weekend - PSD is now about the same size as it was when it secured its NASDAQ listing given combination of share issuance and price fall. Therefore, if it is now of a size to attract US insto support, as GR recently stated, then it should have been back then too! I don't know what the future holds for PSD. . . . but i do think that it is time some of the snouts were removed from the trough. cheers cb
  5. i also have not been able to get through to company in the last few weeks. I would suggest that this situation is VERY bad.
  6. i am disappointed that it is only russian sports teams that are getting onto the SLA bandwaggon. but i am actually quite positive about SLA's prospects. . . . if you look at some of the fortunes that have been made in vitamin marketing in this country. . . and that is in a competitive space without the benefits of unique, patent-protected formulations that actually have real health benefits way in excess of those available from traditional supplements.
  7. clarebatt

    PVA

    In reply to: tilford on Thursday 24/11/05 09:37am doesn't really matter how many sellers there are, seeing as there are no buyers. . . . I agree that it will take some pretty special news to get the price up. I suspect that the news that gets it there will be Brachysil actually being launched and achieving good market penetration - but that is two years away.
  8. clarebatt

    IMI

    i am new to IMI . . . but am interested to understand the financial model. What does it cost IMI to buy a machine? When a machine is placed, is it "sold" to the clinic, or just placed there and IMI picks up fees for usage / rent? How much revenue can IMI generate from a machine in a month? What are the costs associated with earning that revenue?? . . . . .any help on these much appreciated.
  9. i am with you on this one hyper. patch selling without disrupting the market is a great thing - they were always an oil co who happened to get very lucky, by chance, on a small bio investment. this is a great outcome for both parties.
  10. clarebatt

    CIX

    Buying CIX today for 35 cents is like buying a $1 coin for 50 cents. Franking Credits + Cash = 71 cents per share on this one. One day that value will be reflected in the market. . . . .
  11. clarebatt

    CIX

    Herger Agree that industry pricing pressure is an issue for all general insurers. . . and in CIX's case the question really is whether they can win business if the pricing climate comes down. HOWEVER, there is no excuse for this company trading at less than its cash backing, given the value of the franking credits also embedded in the stock. Oh well . . . . Feb results will be interesting for CIX to see whether they are achieving many wins. I have been doing as much grass roots research as I can around the industry, and they seem to be achieving some success, but I have no idea how it stacks up against their business plan. Personally - I've just put an order up to buy a few more at 35 cents. CB
  12. Well, Ousia's latest set of predictions seems to be coming good on ADA. Share price up nicely today - 16% - although volume not massive.
  13. . . . .nah. . . aegis won't make any difference. it is only a 2 page fact sheet, and the company pays to be included. just my opinion.
  14. clarebatt

    QTK

    . . . key question in my mind is where QTK is going to raise funds from now, and on what terms? If cash burn from previous quarter has continued this quarter, they would be running out of cash within the next few weeks. interesting to see how that is going to pan out.
  15. The two unknowns on CST seem to be: 1) The speed at which testing centres will switch to CST once approval is received in a market, and 2) The marketshare that CST will have when it reaches its peak level of penetration. I note that Forrest's spreadsheet has quite slow pickup in sales volumes, and a peak penetration level of only around 50% of the developed world. Why will penetration not be very close to 100%? And is it realistic to expect higher takeup of the product once fully authorised & recommended by governing bodies in a particular country?
  16. clarebatt

    RBY

    In reply to: Wargfang on Thursday 17/11/05 08:07am i thought the sale took place some time ago? and it was reported later than it should have been??
  17. In reply to: happy2 on Wednesday 16/11/05 02:49pm happy2, I sincerely hope that forrest and jocky boy's modelling proves to be accurate, and i have no particular reason to fault their approach or methodology. however - i do question your comment that CST is the most undervalued stock on the market today. while CST may now be almost assured some level of success, it is a far cry from being sure that it will be doing 20 million tests a year in 2014, and that the company's outlook at that time still supports a PE of 20. the world can change a great deal in 9 years in ways that none of us can even dream of. . . . .and for any "start-up" business (and CST really is a start-up still, with sales only just starting to gain traction), you can build a DCF that shows an outstanding result. . . . . . i see it all the time in business plans. You start with an idea, and assume that you will achieve a marketshare of x%. . .. and suddenly your idea is "worth" $100 million . . . .or $1 billion . . . .or whatever. For many biotechs on the market in Australia you could perform this style of analysis and come up with a valuation many multiples of current share price. PSD would be one. . . imagine what it is worth is 80% of US and Chinese Liver cancer patients are treated with Brachysil in five years time! The difference with CST may be that you have really strong reason to believe that the sales will come through in the near term. And if that follows through I hope that everyone on this board makes a lot of money. NONE OF THIS IS MEANT TO TAKE ANYTHING AWAY FROM CST, OR THE ANALYSIS UNDERTAKEN.
  18. clarebatt

    PVA

    In reply to: Pessimist on Tuesday 15/11/05 09:55pm Pess After i was shouted down on the board a few weeks ago for suggesting that we should not blindly assume that CDS acquisition was a good thing, I got all grumpy and decided that i wouldn't do this board a favour by attending the AGM. (As it turned out, i also had a conflicting meeting that was difficult to move) Not to worry - good to see the notes that you provided. Interesting to see Rezos salary package mentioned in today's AFR for being out of step with the market. . . ..
  19. clarebatt

    QTK

    In reply to: MiscMan on Tuesday 15/11/05 01:05pm once criminal charges are laid (which they have ben) i would have thought very very hard to get them dropped. the only circumstances in which they would be likely to be dropped (i am guessing) is if witnesses refused to testify. don't know what happens then. . . .
  20. clarebatt

    CIX

    . . . the story hasn't changed at all on this one. . . all that has changed is the share price. CIX is trading at a discount of 12% to cash backing of 41 cents per share AND the company has 30 cents per share in franking credits. The company appears to be making some headway in their insurance business. The website reports a tie-up with one broker (global) from almost a month ago (extracted below), while there is also plenty of evidence on the internet of them having a collaboration arrangement with a group called Affinity Risk Partners. . . . suspect that it is all coming together at a reasonable pace and that one day (2 years?) we will see this crew trading at 70 cents not 36.5. 18 October 2005 Global and Calliden tie property deal GLOBAL UNDERWRITING Services has been quick to tell the intermediary market of its new property facility supported by Calliden Ltd, which would be the start of more to come. This facility combines Global Underwriting’s ability to provide specialist underwriting services to brokers Australia wide with Calliden’s ability to target and develop specific niche property areas, says Ian Risby, general manager of Global Underwriting. “This partnership with Calliden is an ideal one for us,†he said. “Calliden has already proven they support the intermediary market and their approach sits very nicely alongside Global Underwriting’s philosophy to underwrite risk and offer a superior way of connecting brokers to underwriting expertiseâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ. He forecast that the future of the partnership would provide “some exciting opportunities for Global Underwriting and Calliden†Both teams already were working together to develop further products and opportunities to service the intermediary market. Mike Hooton of Calliden said: “At Calliden we have the ability to respond quickly when new opportunities present themselves. “Providing support for Global Underwriting Services in specific property sectors complements our existing business model and demonstrates our commitment to the Intermediary marketâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ. The Global Underwriting contacts for the facility are Ian Risby, general manager, Venetta Gee or Maylie Lui, property underwriters “or any one else in the Global Underwriting tea, Mr Risby said. Full contact details and questionnaires for quotes are available on our website at www.globaluw.com.au.
  21. clarebatt

    QTK

    not sure if you can extend a trading halt? as for the suspension. . . .difficult to know what to make of it. maybe they are still trying to talk thorney into staying on board? maybe they have a bigger problem in some way than we know about? maybe they are hoping to release some good news (other than thorney) before they start trading again? any views out there?
  22. clarebatt

    QTK

    In reply to: newry on Sunday 13/11/05 03:11pm what do you mean "it has also come to light that the charges faced by pallister have already been thrown out by WA courts."????? has pallister faced criminal charges before???? as far as I am aware, based on an austlii search, pallister has been involved in civil action arising from the same underlying situation as the current criminal charges - the civil action does not appear to have concluded to date. The only judgment that i could locate saw the court refuse to give summary judgment for the plaintiff - ie. they recognised that pallister may have a case that deserved to be heard rather than him simply losing before having the chance to put his case. i could be wrong. if someone else knows more, it would be great if you could share with us.
  23. In reply to: vilmac on Friday 11/11/05 04:12pm what is it that is keeping bill clinton busy these days?
  24. . . . .reading today's presentation, there doesn't appear to be any expectation of substantial revenue in the next 12 months. any views from others?
  25. PSD got a Frost & Sullivan award a while back. . . .haven't tracked the precise timing, but their share price is possibly down about 30% since.
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