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samson

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Everything posted by samson

  1. samson

    ORN

    Sheep and gold Di, not much else in the early years. It should be left up to the market and creditors to decide if a company relists. The only parties that stand to gain if it doesn't relist are lawyers, receivers and other miners. Coincidentally, the person with the most to lose in this venture is now a NED and stumping up the most $s. So he must have 'suckered' himself in; now there's an interesting concept. Cheers
  2. samson

    ORN

    A forty bagger?.... based on a re-listing price of 1c (which 86% of the capital will be raised at). Glad you didn't put a time element on that.... I don't know why shareholders would put their holdings in a toilet, but re-listing does allow you to sell and take your loss legally rather than holding it for years while administrators leach their fees.
  3. samson

    ORN

    Why should it be different this time? Firstly, the pog is continuing to rise and with the americans' printing presses getting depreciated by the minute pumping out stimulus after stimulus, one could expect the gold price to appreciate further as the USD dilutes. Secondly, the incompetent leaches (with all due respect to leaches) that comprised the previous board are gone. There are basically three new directors, one with an enormous amount of skin on the line. Thirdly, as base metal miners and explorers lay off skilled workers and don't recontract rigs and crushing subbies etc, it makes sense that mining costs will begin to plateau. So in the grand scheme of things, a lot has changed. Will it be enough? Time will tell, it's still an enormous challenge to balance the available dollars (which is an unknown quantity) with the capacity to develop an income stream. Cheers
  4. samson

    NFK

    Possible M&A with Monadelphous taking a 16.4% strategic stake in nfk. I had my doubts on nfk's debt levels and with perpetual, bt and eley griffiths all pulling out at once, but mnd must not be so concerned. Question is, is it a) Beginning of a takeover or b) Purely taking a stake less than 20% in nfk? Hit 42c on friday now back to 30c. Values a company that had $18m in NP last year at $42m. Cheers
  5. samson

    BLY -

    I don't see it as negativity, just highlighting the realities of what BLY face; if you choose to ignore them, no problems. I'm buying in this market too, just not BLY. It may well bounce, and if you're a short term trader, there's certainly money to be made when the big end of town pulls out at any cost  which they do. But I doubt BLY will be about in its same structure by year's end. Cheers
  6. samson

    BLY -

    Hey fluff, I had a look at their half-yearly this week. How does over $800m in debt over $150m equity sound? BLY have covenants on their $800m debt of a debt to ebitda ratio of a max of 3.75 to 1.00 and an interest cover of 3. They may well test these covenants at the full year. Options then will be roll-over debt (less likely option), capital raising (huge dilution and probably a small take-up) or administration. The third option wouldn't surprise me. There'ya, I saved you some effort and trauma Cheers
  7. samson

    FXJ

    Closed below 100 today and with the potential for a capital raising, I'm going to watch. I was drawn to it as a potential oversold bluechip, but done some diligence and not interested unless could pick it up for a price as an asset play, not a return play. Cheers
  8. samson

    NOD

    Yeah Fred, it is hard to resist. If you watch them closely enough one can make a dollar on the swing. Generally, these types of industrials have been knocked down to death by the market, only when they release their updates do they get knocked down further. It's then I reckon a few over correct. For eg, NWH at 13c was crazy. Do the white collar brigade of central sydney really think that because commodity prices fall back every company involved in the mining industry would shut up shop in a few months? Like NOD, NWH has no real debt problems, so in a few weeks made a handy little 50% on it (and left the 2nd 50% for someone else...). In much the same manner (ie once the larger holders finish their panicking and change their nappy) and the volumes start to drop, NOD could be worth a punt, but watch it constantly with a fairly loose stop-loss. Cheers
  9. samson

    NOD

    Hey Fred, looks like you and me are glutton for punishment following similar little industrials getting belted from pillar to post. If AMP's strategy is to exit, there is a fair bit more selling to do yet. Could be a good upward spike in it once large dummy spitting sellers have exited, but when that is is hard to fathom. The problem large shareholders have is, due to the size of their holding, many (not all, maybe even some) expect management to give them some information that doesn't reach the market. They will expect to be warned about operational issues long before they become a problem. So when they don't get this information and it's released to the market and is just as mush a surprise to them as it is to you and me, they can act irrationally and exit in a hurry at any cost. This is an opportunity to buy cheap as the market price is not realistic, but somewhat artificial due to the size of some irrational selling. On a different note, I was amused with the MD resignation ann. the other week. They used emotive language such as "unacceptable project cost overruns" and "extremely disappointed... " on performance. Then the next paragraph says the MD is leaving for "health and family reasons". C'mon!!!
  10. samson

    HST

    Careful lads; check hst's debt levels. Then think about if they have reduced earnings at reporting (which is a likely scenario) and work out a new cash flow to debt ratio. I'm not trying to downramp, I like their story and like their industry, but think there'll be better entry points at a later time. Will they need to sell anything to assist the debt? A capital raising? Because if they do a raising, my bet will be it won't be above 80c. TSE went from 1600c down to the 300-500c mark but then couldn't do a raising above 125c. It's a savage market where debt is concerned. Still loitering. Cheers
  11. I understand where you're coming from lissica, but the fall would be of the same magnitude approx no matter when they released a drop in profit. They did warn a couple of months ago that the outlook would be 'challenging'  that's director talk that for "we're gunna get hit!" I analysed this knife a bit as it was falling, mainly because I am attracted to engineers (companies, not the human variety). Didn't enter for a couple of reasons: 1) I didn't like their diversification into construction, and 2) I just wasn't impressed with the CEO listening to his BRR talks. He just didn't sell to me. Cheers
  12. samson

    CXG

    A bit volatile over the last couple of days boiler and has lost over 90% of MC in the past 12 months. and 95% of MC since Oct07. They're having trouble with Greentrains, but two issues remain in cxg's favour. 1) The bossman is still buying shares. Not much relative, and maybe just to prop up the sp, but buying nevertheless. 2) They've yet to give the market any guidance. This can be taken either way, 'no news is good news', which I don't aspire to, or brace yourself, which the market has already allowed for. This can be seen as the company has gone from being worth a third of a billion dollars to less than a decent waterfront property on Sovereigns. Good luck to holders, I'll watch for the unravelling from the sidelines. Cheers
  13. samson

    ORN

    In reply to: Gofish1 on Thursday 08/01/09 04:12pm Agree wholeheartedly, a spot right alongside king http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/grrr.gif
  14. samson

    ORN

    Change of director interest out. What could that be? Oh, 1.5m options to the CEO who lasted just a few months and snatched it  sterling effort, bravo young chap http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/puke.gif And at the ambitious price of 5.7c! Don't panic though folks, exercise date is nearly 5 years, so plenty of time to get the company to those lofty heights http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/puke.gif Cheers
  15. samson

    NOD

    More info released, not a drastic story, but SP hammered down to below 30c. A payout ratio of close to 50% should see NOD sitting on 25% yield at current price and forecast FY09 earnings. Having said that, management did word "continue to pay dividends TO a maximum of a 50%". 'To' rather than 'at' could be a big difference. Personally, I'd rather my $s where there is some 'maintenance money' in this crisis ie recurring revenue. Then again, a non-resource oriented company like NFK also smashed in this market unfairly. What do you do? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/laughingsmiley.gif Cheers
  16. samson

    CIY

    In reply to: Moonraler on Thursday 11/12/08 06:10am Even the asx jumped in on the CIY media bashing by questioning their release time of what was a fairly insignificant transaction. Having said that, the remainder of the business is probably not worth much more atm http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/stun.gif I was a ciy holder a couple of years back and have followed the story here, more as a learning process than any possibility of re-entering. In that time I've kept hearing Phil say "we're in the lifestyle marktet, not the property market, we'll be fine"! Cheers
  17. Just to get this thread back to the subject ie ANZ, not banks in general, I have had various dealings with all the banks over the past few decades, and the one bank that stands head and shoulders above the rest in treating me as a valued customer and with respect, is ANZ. So happy with the service I went out and bought the company, well some of it anyway, well a tiny proportion of some of it.... cheers
  18. samson

    NFK

    Harsh market, NFK now on a PE on previous earnings of 1.3. I know we shouldn't be using previous earnings in the current market, but even if they halve eps this year, which based on HY report is a close to worst case scenario, PE ratio would be 2.6! I guess there's two main things working against nfk. i) the current market and ii) the current market and companies who have been floated in the bull market and have not publicly seen a recession or close to it. These companies are being hammered the hardest ie aax, vmg, hst, nwh, etc. On good days for nfk, i notice the sellers are few and far between, which presents an opportunity for a large bounce if sentiment ever turns eg went from 34 to 48 in a day recently, on low volume, but someone desperately wanted them at 48. ROE above 50% last year.... cheers
  19. In reply to: strawberry on Thursday 03/07/08 11:47am Under 70c, who would have believed that. What's the goss, any holders watching the onslaught? cheers
  20. samson

    ORN

    In reply to: boundless on Tuesday 25/11/08 05:40pm Tell us more about the agm boundless; not being a holder I gather you were a proxy for someone or knew someone there? Let us know more, you're among friends here. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif
  21. samson

    HST

    In reply to: Lizard on Wednesday 27/08/08 09:49am If 260c was looking good 6 weeks ago, how's half that at 130c looking? Most shares are getting a touch-up, but anything with relatively high gearing is getting wiped out. I'll loiter with intent.
  22. In reply to: wolverine on Tuesday 30/09/08 08:38pm Someone call my name? Just looking at where anz is now compared to two weeks ago. Mid-september all ordinaries was about where it is now, anz was 1550c approx, now 1875c. And the market is going down based on the finance sector? Cheers
  23. In reply to: frmthefuture on Friday 29/08/08 01:30pm You're going short mate, who would've guessed http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/stun.gif
  24. samson

    CIY

    In reply to: BarneyB on Friday 18/07/08 06:57pm Barney, many believe the key to building wealth is to have the bravity to not follow general consensus. However, before anyone buys CIY at these prices, have a good think about sjlittle's first line, in particular the final two words. Cheers
  25. samson

    ORN

    In reply to: eurovision on Thursday 10/07/08 08:58pm Your not having much luck euro, i was just reading MON! We don't want to see GDR go down the same path, but it's looking pretty bleak.
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