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samson

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Posts posted by samson

    IDL

    SP probably rising on that development Mick; my amateur TA says 48c was resistance, through that now. If IDL can pull full year profit of about $40m, they're valued at over 100c. They were better buying in the low teens, but the market had to catch up at some stage.

     

    Cheers

  1. SIP returns about the same as the cost of money and has done so for the last few years since they began operating in their present structure. And of this it returns only about 2.1 per cent back into its business - how can it grow? Although trades well below net assets, it has no NTA. While this is a concern, it doesn't really matter after considering the first point.

     

    Cheers

    ORN

    The market is currently valuing orn at $40m at current market and $78m fully diluted (based on 1.5b shares). GDR was valued at $70m just on two years ago with apparent blue sky mining ahead and production imminent. Must be a lot of insider trading atm.

     

    The company hasn't done anything but just survive in the past 18 months, and the drilling (at millions of dollars of expense) done previous has at the very least been put on the back-burner by new management who begin yet another strategy.

     

    It's a sobering act to go back a couple of years with a company and read all those positive announcements which amounted to nothing. A different company now you might say. Fair enough. But, it certainly helps to implant the need for a long memory when it comes to mining companies in particular and their goals and ambitions. Mid-tier gold producer yet andrew?

     

    Cheers

    NBS

    Ousia, this is one of the best researched posts I've read on ss. I too was highly suspicious of the end of year account cryptics, and, as the company fell outside of criteria, I didn't look any further. Agree, no doubt some money can be made on nbs, or lost, but unless one is an insider, it's all pure speculation.

     

    Cheers

    ORN

    Sellers moving in today, down 10 per cent. What could they have been expecting in the yearly accounts that wasn't there; or just a coincidence perhaps :icon14:

    PST

    Cash offer at nearly double where PST has sat for the last few months. Pretty good offer I would have thought considering the debt pst is carrying. "Not being in the best interests of shareholders...". Not being in the best interest of the ceo more specifically.

     

    I doubt we've heard the end of it.

    WWM

    Management have just released FY10 outlook; no slip-up that they didn't mention a bottom line figure and only gave ebitda guide.

     

    WWM is a classic example of one of buffett's famous sayings "when good management take on a poor company, it's the company that stays with its reputation intact" :blush:

  2. The vast majority of their operational profit comes from the marine sector. My understanding is the nature of their business doesn't usually involve big ticket contracts. But its early stages in our relationship, the only background I've picked up is from their website, annual report and a couple of people I know in the industry.

     

    Cheers

  3. Just wondering how leveraged their "offshore, marine, oil & gas" sector is, or can be, to the gorgon projects and others in the area. ZGL is already undervalued, but could be drastically undervalued if they can get their claws into that geographic market.

     

    Products manufactured: Deck Machinery viz winches, windlasses, capstans, deck cranes, derricks, cable laying & life boat davits, shark jaws, towing pins.

     

    Not directly comparable, but MRM on a PE of 20 and ZGL less than 4 :o

     

    Cheers

  4. This little iron potential is moving along quietly. It doesn't get the attention of its WA cousins but is probably further ahead with better resources than some WA iron potentials that are much higher capitalised. LML has started a consolidation pattern, but has the potential to break out on developmental news.

     

    LMLO also has nine months to run so plenty of opportunity to leverage.

     

    Cheers

     

     

  5. About four times the usual volume today. Possible reasons:

     

    i) Run-up to ex-dividend day next week.

     

    ii) A large buyer continuing to see lyl as undervalued in a recovering environment.

     

    iii) 'No nothings' jumping in after lyl was given a plug on Sky's "Market Moves" last night as a company that may make some dough from the WA gas bonanza.

     

     

    Cheers

  6. Not the easiest to value James being in Singaporean dollars; bit of manipulation in my model. I notice the profit guidance that came out on 18 August had eps at S4.86c which they equated to AUD4.47c, which seems a bit high as AUD$ has been around 0.85. If they can make money in the other segments outside of marine, they'll take off. Still compelling. Don't hold.
  7. Great result bam.

     

    NPAT topped $14m, above what I thought a couple of months ago; I thought $12m would have been good. Cash has gone from $10m to $26m, borrowings down from $4.6m to $2.8m, an increase of 17% on net assets (that's what we own!) and paying a whopping 20c final dividend, which was over 10% yield on last night's close (not to mention the 5c interim.....).

     

    This result is about as good as it gets in this past 12 months. The risk though was priced in, take the risk and buyers were rewarded.

     

    Cheers

  8. Half yearly profit of $11.5 with full year profit only half a million over that. Haven't look at any details yet. Plus no dividend. Those two factors may have had some input. Announcements came out before open, yet the price didn't start spiralling down until 1124 which suggests rather than a wholesale drop, it was more likely some stop losses combined with sheepish behaviour that pushed down the sp. I reckon it will bounce back up a bit tomorrow if the market goes ok.

     

    Cheers

  9. Not original use..... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheeple

     

    Sheeple is a bit like the term 'peeps'; which is where sheep take on human qualities by following one another and all doing the same thing. Who copies who? :stun:

     

    VMG are undervalued at $37m, *if* they can pull a profit. They're yet to prove their vertically integrated framework is an industry winner.

     

    Also note, they're going to pull $100m off their net assets this full year, with $85m intangible written off. In their own words, the carrying value of the goodwill does not equate to the expected discounted cash flows from the businesses. What does this mean? They got ripped off buying at the top of the market :o

     

    Cheers

     

     

     

     

    ORN

    Ahh fantastic, someone with insider information, just what we need. You must have inside information to know that no spp or rights for old gdr holders has now been *confirmed*, as nothing to my knowledge has been released to the market or sent to existing shareholders.....

     

    Boundless, while you're at it, can you also find out:

    1) What is their next serious target?

    2) Are they going to move forward and develop eureka?

    3) A timeline for drills and development.

    4) Are they going to add any more people to the board?

     

    Some guidance on the above would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance. ;)

    ORN

    Sell side is thin for two main reasons:

    a) A charging market since relisting, and

    b) Likely people are holding to wait for ex-date on the SPP/Rights that was suggested/promised.

     

    My bet is if announcement is put out that such an offer won't be made to GDR holders during administration, the sp will plummett.

     

    Cheers

  10. Hang in there Gerd, two years ago you would have been institutionalised if you'd said you'd be buying CBA within 18 months at 2500c or ANZ at under 1200c! Not to mention old-style blue-chips like ALS from 1500c to about 50c. Expect the unexpected.

     

    Love your comment on green bananas; a great analogy for lack of patience in the market, usually for the new entrants who think it is a 'get rich quick' scheme.

     

    Cheers

  11. Proposed merger with Coretrack has been canned. Market didn't mind it though, up 11.5% on high volume. Coretrack meanwhile will run out of cash in a few months based on their cashburn; sounds like IMD were driving a hard bargain.

     

    This is the second time IMD has pulled out of a merger/acquisition this year. It takes strong management to stick to one's terms, and, if the deal isn't right, walk away.

     

    Cheers

  12. II will recommend IFM even if we don't drive don't cars anymore. With TIM, it was 'buy', price drop - 'buy', price drop - 'buy', price drop - 'great buying opportunity, you don't get quality companies like this for this price' - price drop....... 'oops, sorry'.

     

    They do provide some good analysis; the problem with those guys though is the fall in love with companies, and that is a big no no.

     

    Back to the topic. II have been anti-bank - generally - for years now. Which is surprising, because you could have bought anz for under even a conversavite person's intrinsic value earlier this year, and I thought that II are 'value investors'. ANZ if the best of the lot for value.

     

    Cheers

     

     

     

     

  13. "This development shows that the loss of face went far beyond Chinalco and extended deep into the Chinese administration."

     

    What an outrageous thing to say! Gottliebsen would want deep pockets pushing the implication that the current situation is directly related to the failure of the chinalco deal to go through. What would he know? Any chance that any charges laid may be legitimate robert?

     

    Cheers

     

     

    ORN

    Looks like they, or should we say Orion, are more interested in Cohen than the other holes the old co spent millions of our dollars on.

     

    Apparently eureka and tubal cain are being renamed by the local gov too ; eureka to "king's bottomless pitt" and tubal cain to "hill's hole of money".

     

    Cheers

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