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albion

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Everything posted by albion

  1. albion

    LNR

    Despite the market saying the T/O for AMU by Eden is not going ahead will stick my neck out and say AMU is a very good buy at 24 cents. Its a win/win situation and Renaissance Smaller Caps must agree with me as they have just bought over 16m shares.Allthough AMU is one of the few Aussie companies with profitable oil/gas operations in the US it is most likely one of the most "hated" oil/gas stocks on the ASX. Everbody seems to agree that Eden was getting a real bargain at 35cents, but the market is saying AMU is only worth 24cents. Find it hard to think Eden will just walk after all the work they have put in to find what they think is a real bargain. So IF the market is wrong and the T/O goes through anyone buying at 24cents is looking at 50% profit. If Eden back out the downside for AMU looks very limited and only short term. AMU has producing long life oil/gas reserves with quarterly rev of $6.4m and $22.5 cash(thats what attracted Eden in the first place.) If the deal falls through and the ASX marks down AMU its just a matter of time before someone else moves in as Eden has already done all the hard work.
  2. When was the last time we saw buyers outnumbering sellers by 3: 1 for CVN ? I am not getting into the T/A v Value arguement as a guide to buying shares, but it does seem to me that after the extreme fall CVN has had, value starts to get more and more important. It OK for the T/A guys to say its going 10cents or even 5 cents if you like. However, it must be remembered that the company still has 20 years of proven oil and as the shares continue to fall this proven oil gets cheaper and cheaper. IMO 10cents forecast against the proven reserves seems very cheap. I could be wrong, but the big volume the last few days makes one think we have value buyers back into CVN.
  3. At some point the market will have to take CVN value into account or they will just be a gift for some shark. Its as simple as ABC-VN market cap is now only $172m. at the current POO CVN 2p reserves of 8,160,000 BOO are worth $897,600,000. and these are long life producing reserves with low production costs. Taking this to an extreme case each CVN share is worth about .0119 barrels of oil or $1.30 share.Plus there is about 4cents cash per share. This allows absolutely nil value for the many other interests CVN has. More normal market valuation numbers still come up with about 43cents using 2P reserves plus cash. The problem for CVN at the present is mostly due to thousands of losers locked in at higher prices and desperate to get out at any price they can get . Hard to say where it will stop but very undervalued NOW. Would companies spending millions and millions on dusters or investors be prepared to accept proven oil selling much cheaper? I dont think so.
  4. At some point the market will have to take notice of smaller oil/gas stocks with proven producing reserves. Could the spark be increased profits which must to be due in the next quarter for several companies? With POO at $108 CVN which has 20 years of proven reserves must get attractive at some point, but shares remain in a downward spiral. There are several other very attractive mid sized oil/gas producers that look interesting and if POO remains around current levels one would think the market would find it hard to ignore the sector for much longer.
  5. All the recent M/A have been between 38% and 60% above market price. AMU also looks a real steal for Eden. Funny how some oil/gas stocks hardly moved up on 25% increase POO but crash on a 3%fall in POO. Far better to M/A that waste millions on dusters. But who are the main ones left as a lot of the smaller producers are gone already. The companies picking them up seem to be saying the market has it wrong.
  6. As OGW commented this week it is rather hard to believe that most mid cap oil stocks with production and proven reserves have shown almost nil reaction to the recent upward movement of POO infact some have moved downwards, while revenue has increased by about 25%. Show me another sector where this could possibly happen? CVN is most likely one of the worst as it has seen $72m wiped off its m/c while its revenue has increased by $4.75m on current production. It seems very unwise to ignore the oil/gas sector as large and quick profits can be made if you get the timing right. Oil/gas stocks always seem to lag behind upward movements in all other sectors.Would have to think any sellers just now are at the giving up stage,you know "oil at record levels share price doing nothing, I'am out" Very unwise IMO as we already see ROC,BPT starting to move and certainly not the time for "value"investors to be getting out.It takes very few buyers to change the situation due to the thin nature of the sector. You would have to think the market is getting very close to correcting this situation or the recent lively T/O activity can only increase.?.
  7. Good point. But what about smaller oil/gas companies with proven reserves that have hardly moved or are down during this period? CVN is one. PSA and AMU also on the list with several others. AMU the most "hated" oil/gas stock listed on the ASX is actually one of the few making a profit in the US.Work out your own value ..proven reserves...cost to produce ....production rate...profit margin and then decide if the discount to the POO looks like value.
  8. The time must be getting very close to taking positions in smaller oil/gas companies with proven producing reserves that the market continues to ignore. Oil stocks always appear to be the last to get any attention as the market moves upward. With POO over $100 several companies are still not getting any interest even with their earnings moving up sharply. In my experience the market can get interested very quick and upward moves can be very fast in this sector. This usually favours "value" buyers over T/A. The move may have started already IMO not just on the price front but the T/O activity as well. Small oil/gas stocks can kill you but there can also be very big profits if one can get the timing right.
  9. That looks like a rather big breakout from a 6 month decline by POE (up 8.13%/56cents) overnight. Could be related to CVN with resource upgrade expected end of March. With POO CVN pulling in big money now but market not interested. Could be an interesting open Monday?
  10. albion

    LNR

    AMU now joins the very long list of Australian Oil and Gas companies taken over by foreign companies on the very cheap. Boy do these foreign companies just love "Aussie mugs" they sell us what they want to get rid of at inflated prices then buy valuable assets from us at bargain basement prices. With oil and gas companies it goes something like this. Aussie investors put up the IPO money for oil and gas floats, they then keep paying up for rights issues ect. Some of the companies like AMU are successful in finding good oil/gas reserves but Aussie investors get fed up waiting for big returns, management is useless ect ect and the shares drift down and down. Foreign investors takes them over for a song ...thank you very much. A few months ago you could hardly give AMU away for .175... fantastic value, but no interest here. T/A guys not interested because they do not believe in value buying. Now you are getting 35cents for AMU, robbery but still OK if you were buying from the .175 range. Who will be next ? Dont know but on "value" PSA would have to be interesting?
  11. Well there you go PSA the outstanding oil share today. Never pays to hate them too long.Last two suggestions this week of GGP and PSA well timed fo very good profits..
  12. Ten months since a posting on this one. Know if I was in the oil business would be considering a t/o based on their interests in 5 oilfields about to be developed in China. 5 to 15mmbl to PSA and the whole area might include up to 100mmbl. With a m/c of just over $40m, why would companies keep drilling dusters when you can buy a proven about to be developed oil field on the very cheap??
  13. albion

    GGP

    It certainly looks like a speculators dream and the last two days has seen the highest volume in a year. So what has caused this all of a sudden? Its the announcement confirming the purchase of 8806 acres in the permian basin with proven undeveloped 4mil barrels of oil & 10billion cub ft of gas. There is also a chance of a further large increases on this is 100% owned lease. The bit I like is they mentioned 99% drilling success rate, no wonder this has caught the punters interest.
  14. albion

    GGP

    Speaking to myself here, but I suppose 66% gain in two days not too bad, pity nobody else interested..
  15. albion

    GGP

    Company has now confirmed Permian Basin Acquistion. Notice all at .003 got taken out yesterday. Two years still to run on this one but very speculative just like SSNO last year. Set up to be a big bagger once drilling starts. But read the announcements and make your own mind up.
  16. albion

    GGP

    Almost nil postings on GGP for a long time. GGPO (at .003 ex date Aug 2012)is worth watching IF what the company says comes about. "Finalisation of the Permian Basin acquistion is expected shortly after entitlement issue(now completed and successful) with drilling expected to commence towards end of March 1/4." This should be announced soon and if so expect interest to pick up again. Interesting that OGW suggests this stock could be the next SSN.
  17. The so called "expert Mr Market" can be very wrong at times. Just look at the premiums for T/O in the current oils sector, your friend was 60% out in the value of STU just for starters and just look at the rest. CVN has had $70m wiped off its m/c since it started the recent drilling program. Yet CVN is now in a far better position than when it started. The only problem I see with CVN is the amount of losers locked into the stock and the market knows this.
  18. The current drilling program has proved a disaster for CVN. Since the wildcat spud date over $70m has been wiped off MC in just over 3 weeks. The chances of these wild cats hitting anything are always very low and infact the SP hardly moved up towards spud date. In the meantime CVN revenue has jumped(with the POO) and production is set to increase in the near future. Sounds like a classic case of buy on bad news and that could well be on the announcement of the next "duster".
  19. albion

    ADE

    At .069 ADE sits at 1/3 of 21 cents price you mention and near its low for the year. Also replying to Nipper at AMU agree on your comments concerning the large holdings in the Otway and Cooper basins. Why has this company dropped so much? Dont ask me but at the present time there is almost nil interest in smaller oil/gas companies by Australian investors. That does not mean the sharks are not out hunting around looking for under valued companies (ITP,ITC,AMU,AZZ and a few others). ADE is quite different from other small oil/gas companies in that it owns gas and condensate production facilites and has increasing cash flow. The company holds very good permits in the Cooper and Otway basins, also add in the exciting shale prospects with BPT. Hard to see SP staying at current levels for long or it may follow ITC/INP.
  20. albion

    LNR

    With the continual neglect of value in smaller oil/gas stocks by "wise" Australian investors AMU seems likely to be another one going on the cheap.Looks like INP and now ITC are gone. Overseas interests making offers for AZZ and AMU. BPT failed on DLS but may have just outsmarted VPE on ITC. The key to all this action is good permit holdings and proven oil/gas reserves. Who will be the next to go before investors wake up? I dont know but ADE could be one that might get the sharks interest.
  21. albion

    LNR

    Great to see the "most hated oil stock" doing so well. Allthough no interest from the "experts" on sharescene, in less than a month we have seen a gain of 55%. Thats good money by my thinking. Looks like higher prices still to come. IMO we have seen the panic selling of oil stocks and if POO keeps moving up we might see "panic buying" of oil stocks, some from way oversold positions. But very good profits already from oil stocks for those who bought on value.
  22. albion

    ROC

    As they say its only worth what the market will pay. Looks way undervalued along with many other oilers. Market appears to be saying oil/gas the sector the one to avoid just now. But you have to ask why does AGL want MOS at double what the market says it was worth? Why is DLS now half what it was 6 months ago, yet its prospects look better? Has BPT completely given up on a T/O. At current prices expect a lot more action on the T/O merger front. Can say almost certainly that very good money will be made from several oilers but timing is the problem and you get no T/A assistance for MOS type situations. If interested in the oil/gas sector take a leaf from the larger companies looking for undervalued situations.
  23. albion

    LNR

    Todays announcement concerning "possibility of SUBSTANIAL non-conventional shale gas reserves" at Paul Hermes Estate1 well and the previous announcements concerning approaches by USA companies should increase interested in AMU .It appears likely that the company will follow the long line of Australian companies taken for "mugs" due to Australian investors failing to give reasonable value to oil/gas stocks with proven reserves. The latest announcement should only serve to increase the interest of foreign companies IMO because the ASX has no interest in the sector at the moment.
  24. albion

    MOS

    One valuation in the Australian today says up to 20cents possible.MOS bid comes at a time when we may see the start of history repeating itself yet again in the smaller oil/gas sector. The pattern is the market refuses to give a reasonable value to oil/gas stocks with proven oil/gas reserves. This leads to one of two things happening the smaller companies with little cashflow and big overheads are no longer able to raise cash and go out of business. The other companies with proven reserves get taken out for a song by bigger companies such as AGL. I forcast in 12 months about 50% of the current companies in the sector will vanish. Take your pick you may end up with very good profits as with MOS (92%)unfortunately no T/A available from Arty, so I agree bit of a gamble on picking the right ones. Not just here but in the USA where AZZ,AMU and PSA look gifts for bigger fish. Here would have a look at DLS,ROC or even AWE which must start to look interesting to an even bigger fish.Anyone like to point out others. I remember several years ago there was a mass of T/O activity in the sector leading one broker to say there is nothing more left in the oil/gas sector worth taking over..
  25. albion

    MOS

    Did the same. A very low risk 16% profit one would think, in the current market not quite enough for most. MOS the first of many way under valued smaller oilers to go. Take your pick not only here but in the USA where AZZ and AMU may well the next to go.
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