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albion

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  1. albion

    LNR

    Despite the market saying the T/O for AMU by Eden is not going ahead will stick my neck out and say AMU is a very good buy at 24 cents. Its a win/win situation and Renaissance Smaller Caps must agree with me as they have just bought over 16m shares.Allthough AMU is one of the few Aussie companies with profitable oil/gas operations in the US it is most likely one of the most "hated" oil/gas stocks on the ASX. Everbody seems to agree that Eden was getting a real bargain at 35cents, but the market is saying AMU is only worth 24cents. Find it hard to think Eden will just walk after all the work they have put in to find what they think is a real bargain. So IF the market is wrong and the T/O goes through anyone buying at 24cents is looking at 50% profit. If Eden back out the downside for AMU looks very limited and only short term. AMU has producing long life oil/gas reserves with quarterly rev of $6.4m and $22.5 cash(thats what attracted Eden in the first place.) If the deal falls through and the ASX marks down AMU its just a matter of time before someone else moves in as Eden has already done all the hard work.
  2. When was the last time we saw buyers outnumbering sellers by 3: 1 for CVN ? I am not getting into the T/A v Value arguement as a guide to buying shares, but it does seem to me that after the extreme fall CVN has had, value starts to get more and more important. It OK for the T/A guys to say its going 10cents or even 5 cents if you like. However, it must be remembered that the company still has 20 years of proven oil and as the shares continue to fall this proven oil gets cheaper and cheaper. IMO 10cents forecast against the proven reserves seems very cheap. I could be wrong, but the big volume the last few days makes one think we have value buyers back into CVN.
  3. At some point the market will have to take CVN value into account or they will just be a gift for some shark. Its as simple as ABC-VN market cap is now only $172m. at the current POO CVN 2p reserves of 8,160,000 BOO are worth $897,600,000. and these are long life producing reserves with low production costs. Taking this to an extreme case each CVN share is worth about .0119 barrels of oil or $1.30 share.Plus there is about 4cents cash per share. This allows absolutely nil value for the many other interests CVN has. More normal market valuation numbers still come up with about 43cents using 2P reserves plus cash. The problem for CVN at the present is mostly due to thousands of losers locked in at higher prices and desperate to get out at any price they can get . Hard to say where it will stop but very undervalued NOW. Would companies spending millions and millions on dusters or investors be prepared to accept proven oil selling much cheaper? I dont think so.
  4. At some point the market will have to take notice of smaller oil/gas stocks with proven producing reserves. Could the spark be increased profits which must to be due in the next quarter for several companies? With POO at $108 CVN which has 20 years of proven reserves must get attractive at some point, but shares remain in a downward spiral. There are several other very attractive mid sized oil/gas producers that look interesting and if POO remains around current levels one would think the market would find it hard to ignore the sector for much longer.
  5. All the recent M/A have been between 38% and 60% above market price. AMU also looks a real steal for Eden. Funny how some oil/gas stocks hardly moved up on 25% increase POO but crash on a 3%fall in POO. Far better to M/A that waste millions on dusters. But who are the main ones left as a lot of the smaller producers are gone already. The companies picking them up seem to be saying the market has it wrong.
  6. As OGW commented this week it is rather hard to believe that most mid cap oil stocks with production and proven reserves have shown almost nil reaction to the recent upward movement of POO infact some have moved downwards, while revenue has increased by about 25%. Show me another sector where this could possibly happen? CVN is most likely one of the worst as it has seen $72m wiped off its m/c while its revenue has increased by $4.75m on current production. It seems very unwise to ignore the oil/gas sector as large and quick profits can be made if you get the timing right. Oil/gas stocks always seem to lag behind upward movements in all other sectors.Would have to think any sellers just now are at the giving up stage,you know "oil at record levels share price doing nothing, I'am out" Very unwise IMO as we already see ROC,BPT starting to move and certainly not the time for "value"investors to be getting out.It takes very few buyers to change the situation due to the thin nature of the sector. You would have to think the market is getting very close to correcting this situation or the recent lively T/O activity can only increase.?.
  7. Good point. But what about smaller oil/gas companies with proven reserves that have hardly moved or are down during this period? CVN is one. PSA and AMU also on the list with several others. AMU the most "hated" oil/gas stock listed on the ASX is actually one of the few making a profit in the US.Work out your own value ..proven reserves...cost to produce ....production rate...profit margin and then decide if the discount to the POO looks like value.
  8. The time must be getting very close to taking positions in smaller oil/gas companies with proven producing reserves that the market continues to ignore. Oil stocks always appear to be the last to get any attention as the market moves upward. With POO over $100 several companies are still not getting any interest even with their earnings moving up sharply. In my experience the market can get interested very quick and upward moves can be very fast in this sector. This usually favours "value" buyers over T/A. The move may have started already IMO not just on the price front but the T/O activity as well. Small oil/gas stocks can kill you but there can also be very big profits if one can get the timing right.
  9. That looks like a rather big breakout from a 6 month decline by POE (up 8.13%/56cents) overnight. Could be related to CVN with resource upgrade expected end of March. With POO CVN pulling in big money now but market not interested. Could be an interesting open Monday?
  10. albion

    LNR

    AMU now joins the very long list of Australian Oil and Gas companies taken over by foreign companies on the very cheap. Boy do these foreign companies just love "Aussie mugs" they sell us what they want to get rid of at inflated prices then buy valuable assets from us at bargain basement prices. With oil and gas companies it goes something like this. Aussie investors put up the IPO money for oil and gas floats, they then keep paying up for rights issues ect. Some of the companies like AMU are successful in finding good oil/gas reserves but Aussie investors get fed up waiting for big returns, management is useless ect ect and the shares drift down and down. Foreign investors takes them over for a song ...thank you very much. A few months ago you could hardly give AMU away for .175... fantastic value, but no interest here. T/A guys not interested because they do not believe in value buying. Now you are getting 35cents for AMU, robbery but still OK if you were buying from the .175 range. Who will be next ? Dont know but on "value" PSA would have to be interesting?
  11. Well there you go PSA the outstanding oil share today. Never pays to hate them too long.Last two suggestions this week of GGP and PSA well timed fo very good profits..
  12. Ten months since a posting on this one. Know if I was in the oil business would be considering a t/o based on their interests in 5 oilfields about to be developed in China. 5 to 15mmbl to PSA and the whole area might include up to 100mmbl. With a m/c of just over $40m, why would companies keep drilling dusters when you can buy a proven about to be developed oil field on the very cheap??
  13. albion

    GGP

    It certainly looks like a speculators dream and the last two days has seen the highest volume in a year. So what has caused this all of a sudden? Its the announcement confirming the purchase of 8806 acres in the permian basin with proven undeveloped 4mil barrels of oil & 10billion cub ft of gas. There is also a chance of a further large increases on this is 100% owned lease. The bit I like is they mentioned 99% drilling success rate, no wonder this has caught the punters interest.
  14. albion

    GGP

    Speaking to myself here, but I suppose 66% gain in two days not too bad, pity nobody else interested..
  15. albion

    GGP

    Company has now confirmed Permian Basin Acquistion. Notice all at .003 got taken out yesterday. Two years still to run on this one but very speculative just like SSNO last year. Set up to be a big bagger once drilling starts. But read the announcements and make your own mind up.
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