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Everything posted by bvbfan

  1. Bit of interest in CGM the last few weeks, will it continue? Hopefully the plan to get some cashflow will lead to a good deposit being proven.
  2. I tend to agree about silver, gold less so. I'm more concerned copper is overvalued than gold. I have long been against hedging but it seems prudent for some of the new juniors to lock in some years of revenue. Moreso for gold but I see copper and silver worthy of being hedged now. I wonder about EQN's hedgebook and how much is left. If it's down to only a few years then maybe the offer is still too low? Hopefully a bidding war erupts between Barrick, Minmetals maybe even Xstrata?
  3. bvbfan


    The high AUD gives me quite a concern on two factors. 1 - Dutch disease wiping out the manufacturing base. Some arguements that it is not a great concern as the resource boom is spread across different resources and not confined to one like it was for Holland. 2 - I don't see this being mentioned but surely the high AUD is putting pressure on interest rates/high interest rates attracting more capital inflows and pushing AUD higher. My concern is that foreign investors will want higher interest rates sooner or later for the preceived risk of a sharp devaluation of the currency. Who on earth will want to invest in AUD when the interest rate might only produce 6% returns? At 1.06, a 6% drop would take us to parity again and the investor would be only be breaking even. As we push towards 1.10 or more I certainly wouldn't want to be investing in the AUD for 6-7% returns when the downside would be at least 10%, perhaps 20% more as US ends QE 2 and QE 3 looks less likely. Thoughts?
  4. bvbfan


    The SPP was at 12c so that may be tested first.
  5. EQN is gonesky it seems, board accept $8.15CAD offer from Barrick http://www.kitco.com/pr/1872/article_04252011074839.pdf Interesting Barrick primarily a gold company would go for a copper stock.
  6. DGR holds 35.2million SOLG shares = 13million 52 million MET shares = 28.6million 58 million ANW shares = 8.7million With the 27 million NVG @ 20c that would be 5.4million Total holdings around 55.7million vs market cap of 50.5million. No value for the other potential spin offs I reckon its worth keeping an eye on, especially if NVG comes on at a large premium
  7. I doubt EQN will be taken over by Minmetals. I also doubt the shareholders of EQN are dumb enough to accept a lowball bid from them (and Michelmore) I still contend that what he did couldn't have been done any better by someone trying to destroy a company. I'd like to see EQN buy out OZL to be honest ;P If the OZL strategy is still to focus on Asia Pacific region (I note the last preso hinted it might not be) then may look at some of the deposits in PNG. Marengo looks to be a developing into a large scale development.
  8. A cheap shot by Minmetals and the 3 time looser Michelmore. I'd be wary of having to do anything with him ever again after previous stuff ups at WMC, Zinifex & Oz Minerals. Interesting disclosure that FIRB had news of the takeover on March 11. I would think it would market sensitive news. Would have thought Minmetals would have announced earlier. I would hope Equinox had no knowledge of it before Friday.
  9. Well I've been away from this board for a while, fed up with the stupid rip off deal that was forced on us. Still surprized that only 1.7billion shares voted on the deal, what about the other 1.5billion? Hard to see them just ignore the deal. Couldn't really be bothered dealing with the idiots of the management team. Having read a few of the posts and saw a corker. Bruce Loveday as the chief strategist. LMAO that fool couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Considering he couldn't even answer numerous non sensitive questions I put to them in 2008. Seeing Tony Manini has signalled his intention to jump ship as well, looks like one of the few people that had any credibility in this company. Anyway I've plugged in numbers for PH and the cash (if it really exists) and come up with about $1.50 valuation. $1.15 or so for just the operations. Funny I was derided for stating a certain other company would be higher than OZL in a years time, certainly did better out of switching into that than staying here.
  10. Avebury wasn't in production until 2008 from what I believe. The estimates might have been $2 or so when Allegiance were doing their studies but from the reports I've seen, the costs were at least $4/lb+ once Zinifex had taken them over. At current metals prices if Sepon, Golden Grove, PH and Century were in production then the refinancing shouldn't be a problem. Copper forward sales could be locked in around $2 until March 2011 which would take care of quite a bit of the debt. Sell Martabe, hedge 50% of production in copper and try to hedge some of the zinc (which I can't get forward prices for) At full rates of production the cashflows from copper alone are close to $500million now. The idiots look like selling out the assets at the bottom again.
  11. Hi all, I have been offline the past 6weeks due to stuffs with Telstra. Anyway, the FIRB block IMO is great in the national interest side but probably means the company will go into adminstration. This actually isn't that bad IMO. It will provide a way for the board to be sacked and a new strategy to be implemented. If adminstrators aren't as stupid and incompetent as the management we have. I'd like to see more jobs cut from corporate, like the spin doctors who do nothing for the company now anyway. With the bounce in commodity prices, Century could be close to break even (if you believe the company spin). Sepon and PH would be very cashflow positive. Those two would provide about $250million. If all the other assets - Century, Golden Grove, Avebury, Martbabe are sold for $500million total then with some hedging we could be debt free in 3-4years by my simple calcs. Seeing the Inside Business interview birdbrain Michelmore, stating that it was Minmetals or bust really isn't the smart thing to say. But then I have said numerous times that he is an IDIOT (of the highest order) and INCOMPETENT. I guess shareholders still think he can save this company. Best thing shareholders can now do is start talking to your local members of parliament and try to see if they can gauarantee some the debt. Seems unlikely and realistically best outcome is adminstration and sacking of the board that way.
  12. bvbfan


    Cashed-Up Moly Mines Looks For Another Party To Go To While The Molybdenum Price Remains Down In the Dumps from Minesite What do you do when you're all dressed-up and ready to party, only to discover that the party has been cancelled? The Australian answer is not to waste a shower and a shave, but simply to find another party. That is pretty much what the emerging molybdenum producer, Moly Mines is doing. Whacked over the head by a collapse in the molybdenum price, Moly is on the hunt for something profitable to do with the A$127 million it had in the bank as of 31st December. Rather than push ahead with full-scale development on its Spinifex Ridge molybdenum-and-copper deposit in Western Australia, Moly Mines is instead looking at a scaled down version of the project, to be supplemented by possible investments in other mine development projects, in particular one or more of the new mines which are near the end of the construction phase, but which have been hit by the credit and capital markets freeze. "We're effectively in a holding pattern", says how Moly chief executive Derek Fisher, when Minesite's Man in Oz pops in to his Perth office for a chat. "We can see how to proceed with a start-up plant at Spinifex Ridge, which would be half the original, and then grow later. The design is modular, and drawing a line down the middle is easy. It is also possible to start mining the high-grade core of the orebody to maximise output of molybdenum and copper. But, even with changes like that it will be hard to raise finance with the molybdenum price around US$10 a pound." No-one believes that the price of the metal will stay low for long. Its major use is in making special steels, such as those expected to be in high demand as government-funded infrastructure projects pop up around the world. However, it would be a brave man who predicts a rapid return to the US$33 per pound average price that was enjoyed by molybdenum miners over the first nine months of 2008. Even rapid and widespread production cuts by major moly producers will take time to filter through to the price. It's this realistic outlook which has Fisher - with the backing of the major financiers of Moly Mines - on the hunt for other assets. "You only have to look around the industry today to see that there are bargain investments on offer," Fisher says. "We've got a list of a number of mine developments around the world, some of them 90 per cent complete, which have run out of money." Fisher, diplomatically, declines to name names. But Minesite's Man in Oz, coming from a school of journalism which abandoned manners some time ago, immediately tosses a few names at him, starting with Windimurra Vanadium, which is negotiating a fresh capital injection to complete construction at its Windimurra mine, and then moving on to Lynas Corporation, which is seeking funds to finalise its Mt Weld rare earths mine. Those two names draw a lightning fast "of course not," from Fisher - so fast, in fact, that even Fisher has to laugh. "Let's say we are looking closely at about six", he says referring to a hypothetical list of "incomplete" mines. "They are located around the world, but we're trying to do something in Australia. Windimurra might be a good example. It has some debt which might be available at the right price. If you look at Fortescue Metals, it has debt trading at around US50 cents in the dollar. Now, you've got to believe that Windimurra's debt is worth less than that. Lynas is another possibility for a potentially opportune investment, if we can renegotiate the debt." Fisher makes it clear that hunting for an alternative investment is opportunity-driven, while Moly waits for the main event – the hoped for improvement in the molybdenum market which will clear the way for the company to proceed with Spinifex Ridge. Work on the project is at a very advanced stage, whether as a full-scale US$1 billion project, or in two halves. At its full size, ore production would total 20 million tonnes per year, for the recovery of 24 million pounds of molybdenum and 27.3 million pounds of copper. Half-size is, well, half those numbers. "We're well advanced on designing a plant processing between eight and 10 million tonnes of ore a year, with a future expansion to the full size of 20 million tonnes a year", says Fisher. "Advantages in the smaller start-up include an enhanced grade profile" - by which he means mining the high grade core early - "a lower strip ratio, relaxation of concentrate specifications, and a much lower capital requirement, which makes financing easier. However, having said that, it's hard to finance any mine developments in this market." The good news in regard to molybdenum, such as it is, is to be found in the speed at which producers slashed production as soon as the downturn hit. "Worldwide molybdenum production cutbacks are as high as 30 per cent", Fisher says. "Once cut, it's hard to turn production back on quickly, which means any increase in demand will flow quickly into the price. When economic recovery kicks in, especially with the promised infrastructure programme, you could see a solid rebound. Moly is a metal used in a variety of construction steels, similar to manganese and vanadium." On the stock market, there are early signs of revived interest in Moly Mines. After an astonishing run, up to a mid 2007 peak of A$7.06, the company sank to a low of just A17 cents in late November of 2008. Since touching that bottom, Moly has re-arranged its project development profile and arranged a line of credit to keep its business ticking over. By early January, the share price had risen as high as A45 cents, before settling back to around A30 cents, a price which is either close to double where it was in November, or a fraction of where it was in mid-2007. Glass half-full, or glass half-empty? The answer to that conundrum depends on what happens next.
  13. You really have to question the intelligence of the board. Any company that hires these clowns in any capacity deserves to go down. First the idiots said we would sell assets to pay out the debt, PH + Martabe would have taken care of the debt and left at least $100-400million. Sepon is still profitable, Golden Grove perhaps still profitable. Century would probably be loss making at 50c. Now they have given up and decided to sell the lot.
  14. Clap clap clap for the brilliant management team we have. So now they chuck in the towel. What use is it having them around any longer? Notice they have used a scheme of arrangement again so does this mean shareholders get no vote again? If possible we must call the EGM and oust the incompetence and useless board. I could bring more value to the board in my pinky that the lot of them there already
  15. bvbfan


    BarCap think it's the start of a multi-week strong rally for commodities and commodity stocks. They see that copper has carved out a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern over the past three months. If Friday's strong gains are held in the next few days we could see much higher prices. The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed net speculative position is heavily short to the tune of 31% of Open Interest. The last time in January 2007 when the market similiarly short the price of copper jumped 50% iver 3 months. BarCap believe if copper manages to break above US$3610 it could rise all the way up to US$4600 to meet trendline resistance.
  16. bvbfan


    Is Escondida losing money because of by product credits? I know Moly could be a larger contributor to Chilean copper operations
  17. I wonder if the incompetent board could be stupid enough to not include a NSR (net smelter royalty) into any sale of Martabe. I'm sure they are dumb and pathetic enough to not include one. Anything over $1000USD or $1400AUD should be there. Same goes for any base metals mines sold.
  18. bvbfan


    Government regulators aided IndyMac coverup, maybe others http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/Economy/stor...8365&page=1 A brewing fraud scandal at the Treasury Department may be worse than officials originally thought. Investigators probing how Treasury regulators allowed a bank to falsify financial records hiding its ill health have found at least three other instances of similar apparent fraud, sources tell ABC News. In at least one instance, investigators say, banking regulators actually approached the bank with the suggestion of falsifying deposit dates to satisfy banking rules -- even if it disguised the bank's health to the public. Treasury Department Inspector General Eric Thorson announced in November his office would probe how a Savings and Loan overseer allowed the IndyMac bank to essentially cook its books, making it appear in government filings that the bank had more deposits than it really did. But Thorson's aides now say IndyMac wasn't the only institution to get such cozy assistance from the official who should have been the cop on the beat. The federal government took over IndyMac in July, after the bank's stock price plummeted to just pennies a share when it was revealed the bank had financial troubles due to defaulted mortgages and subprime loans, costing taxpayers over $9 billion. Darrel Dochow, the West Coast regional director at the Office of Thrift Supervision who allowed IndyMac to backdate its deposits, has been removed from his position but he remains on the government payroll while the Inspector General's Office investigates the allegations against him. Investigators say Dochow, who reportedly earns $230,000 a year, allowed IndyMac to register an $18 million capital injection it received in May in a report describing the bank's financial condition in the end of March. "They [indyMac] were able to maintain their well-capitalized threshold and continue to use broker deposits to make loans," said Marla Freedman, an assistant inspector general at Treasury. "Basically, while the institution was having financial difficulty, it kept the public from knowing earlier than it otherwise should have or would have." In order to backdate the filings, IndyMac sought and received permission from Dochow, according to Freedman. "That struck us as very unusual," said Freedman. "Typically transactions are to be recorded in the period in which they occur, not afterwards. So it was very unusual." One former regulator says Dochow's actions illustrate the cozy relationship between banks and government regulators. "He did nothing to protect taxpayers in losses," former federal bank regulator William Black told ABC News. "Instead of correcting it [Dochow] made it worse by increasing the accounting fraud." Meanwhile, IndyMac customers who lost their savings are demanding answers and are further infuriated after learning Dochow was also the regulator in 1989 who oversaw the failed Lincoln Savings and Loan, a scandal that sent its CEO Charles Keating to prison. "He's the person who claimed that he looked into Charles Keating's eyes and knew that Keating was a good guy and therefore ignored all of the professional staff that told him that Keating was a fraud, and he produced the worst failure of the Savings and Loan Crisis at $3.4 billion. Now he's managed more than triple that," said Black, now an economics professor at the University of Missouri in Kansas City, Missouri. Following the Lincoln scandal, Dochow was demoted and placed into a relatively obscure office, but later, inexplicably was brought back into the Office of Thrift Supervision. Dochow declined to answer questions from ABC News. After Ronnie Lopez was killed in Iraq, his mother Elaine invested the life insurance proceeds at IndyMac. She lost $37,000 of it. "I was hysterical," she told ABC News. "I literally thought I was going to kill myself that day, because I felt so bad that I had let him down. I remember going to his grave and telling him "don't worry, I'm going to get that money back,' and I feel like he was saying, 'Hey, Mom, don't let them take that. I did the ultimate for that.'" A group of angry investors has started a website, demanding answers on the extent of Dochow's actions. "It's just the strife and anger," said IndyMac customer Lisa Marshall. "That this Dochow person is still employed. It's unbelievable, it's shocking." While Dochow could end up losing his job, neither he nor his colleagues are expected to go to prison. "This is criminal with the small 'c,'" said Black. "No one within the regulatory ranks may go to jail, but they have done the worst possible disservice to the taxpayers of America." So what's to say the CTFC or even the Treasury aren't playing funny buggers with futures trading and/or actual gold/silver inventories
  19. bvbfan


    some reading on tantalum for those interested http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features...l-actually.html
  20. bvbfan


    In reply to: busylion on Saturday 17/01/09 01:04pm Credit Suisse rates PNA as Outperform - Target $0.23 (was $0.62). Lower copper price assumptions sees the broker cut its earnings estimates and hence its price target on the stock. Despite this the broker continues to rate the stock as Outperform as there is upside from the current share price with respect to its revised price target. Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.18 Difference:$0.06
  21. bvbfan


    In reply to: flower on Friday 16/01/09 01:11pm Super Pit is Barrick and Newmont I think Boddington is with AngloGold from Wiki bit old, not a big AUD issue in the scheme of things IMO Jundee. The Jundee operations (100% owned) is situated approximately 435 miles (700 kilometers) northeast of Perth, Western Australia. Jundee sold 305,400 ounces of gold in 2006. Tanami. The Tanami operations (100% owned) include The Granites treatment plant and associated mining operations, which are located in the Northern Territory approximately 342 miles (550 kilometers) northwest of Alice Springs, adjacent to the Tanami highway, and the Dead bullock Soak mining operations, approximately 25 miles (40 kilometers) west of The Granites. The Tanami operations have been wholly-owned since April 2003, when Newmont acquired the minority interests. Kalgoorlie. The Kalgoorlie operations comprise the Fimiston open pit (commonly referred to as the Super Pit) and Mt. Charlotte underground mine at Kalgoorlie-Boulder, 373 miles (600 kilometers) east of Perth. The mines are managed by Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines Pty Ltd for the joint venture owners, Newmont and Barrick, each of which holds a 50% interest. The Super Pit is Australia’s largest gold mine in terms of gold production and annual mining volume. During 2006, the Kalgoorlie operations sold 332,200 equity ounces of gold. Boddington. Boddington is a development project located 81 miles (130 kilometers) southeast of Perth in Western Australia. As of December 31, 2006 Boddington was owned by Newmont (66.67%) and AngloGold Ashanti Limited (33.33%). In March 2006, Newmont acquired Newcrest Mining Limited’s 22.22% interest in Boddington for $173.
  22. bvbfan


    In reply to: flower on Thursday 15/01/09 11:43pm I don't believe NEM is the biggest in ounces anymore, Barrick is. Also NEM has the super pit in Australia and also the Boddington mine, so how you can say they have no AUD costs seems strange.
  23. Copper technicals from Barclays. With daily momentum oscillators rolling bearish, all that is needed is a close through US$3220/3185/t, the chartists report, to complete a small double top formation on their charts. This would be a bearish signal and indicate another downward leg has started. The chartists explain the US$3220/3185/t price level is copper's 21-day average and pivot low. They believe any such downward leg is poised to pull the price for the metal to US$2817/2928/t - this level both marks the low in the current bear market as well as the 78.6% retracement of the US$1290/8940/t 2001/2008 advance. The chartists believe a retest would be likely of US$2720/t, which is the so-called bear channel low.
  24. bvbfan


    Awakening A Giant: Marengo Mining Plugs Away At Yandera In Papua New Guinea “We’re quietly confident that there’s a world out there that still needs metals”. So says Les Emery, managing director of Marengo Mining. Let’s hope he’s right, for his sake as well as ours, because at the Yandera copper-molybdenum project in Papua New Guinea Marengo has a whole lot of metal that it will be looking to start selling within the next three years. Specifically, 3.4 million tonnes of contained copper. Or perhaps we should say 3.4 million tonnes and counting, as drilling is by no means over. No wonder a recent presentation given by Les Emery was entitled “Awakening a Giant”. As things stand, at the end of the 2008 season, and using a 0.2% cut-off, and combining copper and molybdenum, Marengo was able confidently to inform the market that Yandera holds 527 million tonnes of ore grading 0.38% copper equivalent in the indicated category, and a further 766 million tonnes of ore grading 0.33% in the inferred category. There are also significant gold, silver and rhenium by-products not included in the copper equivalents. What’s more, Les Emery isn’t even convinced that at Yandera the company has been working up the best of the prospects on its sizeable project portfolio. But you’ve got to start somewhere. That Yandera will definitely go into production is not cut and dried yet, of course, especially at these metals prices, but things are progressing apace, and a definitive feasibility study (DFS) is scheduled for completion by December 2009. Les Emery reels off a list of issues that are currently under investigation, ranging from pit design through to infrastructure, and fine-tuning of the economics. The plan is for a 25 million tonnes per year operation, with an initial life of ten years. Separate copper and moly circuits will be installed in plant near to the minesite, and the resulting copper concentrate will be piped in slurry form to Madang some way to the west, a town that’s described in Marengo literature as “a thriving seaport”. On the current timeline, commissioning is due for the early part of 2012, a date which, says Les Emery, “fits in with what the various off-take partners we’ve spoken to want”. Of course it all looked a lot easier when metals prices were in the stratosphere. But although things are tight now, they are not yet desperate. “We ran the numbers on US$1.50 copper”, says Les Emery. “It isn’t easy, but it works”. When Les made that statement, towards the dying days of 2008, copper was still hovering just above US$1.50. Now, it’s dipped slightly below. Still, no-one said 2009 was going to be easy. And, given that everyone knows we’re in for a tough year, even if there are slightly more bulls on the Australian side of things than there are elsewhere in the world, now may well be the right time for Marengo to revise the approach it takes to its calculation of metals equivalent grades. A re-working through the DFS would be one option, and would be useful in that it would allow the market to be able to see through to the real underlying value of Yandera as the company begins to move closer to funding options. The equivalent copper grades quoted above aren’t wildly out of kilter, but were calculated using a copper price of US$2.00 per pound and a molybdenum price of US$20 per pound. For a brief period during the last boom using US$20 moly looked a conservative approach. But long-term moly watchers will know that that over the years the average price has been much closer to half that, and that since moly fell off a cliff at the end of October, the current price, at not far north of US$10, seems to bobbing about at around average. US$2.00 copper looks a bit distant too, now, although in percentage terms copper's not off as much as moly over the last few months. In any case, however shifting metals prices mess about with equivalent values, the real issue for Marengo is simply that both moly and copper are down. Not only does that put the squeeze on the economics, but it hurts sentiment in the investment community – indeed some of the company’s options have just lapsed, underwater by a long way. Still, says Les Emery, the company can’t do much about metals prices. What it can work on is grade, and he’s fairly optimistic that here Marengo does at least have room for manouevre. “If we increase the grade by one per cent,” he says, “the amount of extra cash that throws off is significant”. So reasons to be cheerful, and we can look for more news on that in the months ahead and in the DFS when it comes out. More significantly for the immediate outlook and for long term survival prospects, Marengo’s money situation isn’t too gloomy. There’s A$18 million in the bank. So as far as new money’s concerned, says Les, “we’re in the fortunate position that we don’t have to do anything at the moment. We just have to do the study”. And as that study progresses Marengo may well also find ways to cut the likely US$1 billion capital cost that will be required to build a mine at Yandera. “There’s potential to shave a bit off that. Ideally I’d like to knock 10 per cent off that, but if you tried to tell people you could do it for much less they could tell you didn’t know what you were talking about.” Les is not a man you’d be inclined to say that about at all. If he can increase the grade and cut the capital expenditure, then by the time first production hits the market we may be looking at a lean-and-mean Marengo that’s sailing slap-dang into the next upswing.
  25. OZL will do well to relist north of 25c I reckon. Still won't consider buying it there or even at 0.001 if the same idiots that run it into the ground are still wallowing in the trough. How dumb do they take shareholders? To support any capital raising with the same clowns to burn more shareholders money? Sorry that first question should be struck out, they are that inept and dumb they wouldn't know...
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