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bvbfan

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  • Birthday 07/21/1980

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  1. Bit of interest in CGM the last few weeks, will it continue? Hopefully the plan to get some cashflow will lead to a good deposit being proven.
  2. I tend to agree about silver, gold less so. I'm more concerned copper is overvalued than gold. I have long been against hedging but it seems prudent for some of the new juniors to lock in some years of revenue. Moreso for gold but I see copper and silver worthy of being hedged now. I wonder about EQN's hedgebook and how much is left. If it's down to only a few years then maybe the offer is still too low? Hopefully a bidding war erupts between Barrick, Minmetals maybe even Xstrata?
  3. bvbfan

    AUD

    The high AUD gives me quite a concern on two factors. 1 - Dutch disease wiping out the manufacturing base. Some arguements that it is not a great concern as the resource boom is spread across different resources and not confined to one like it was for Holland. 2 - I don't see this being mentioned but surely the high AUD is putting pressure on interest rates/high interest rates attracting more capital inflows and pushing AUD higher. My concern is that foreign investors will want higher interest rates sooner or later for the preceived risk of a sharp devaluation of the currency. Who on earth will want to invest in AUD when the interest rate might only produce 6% returns? At 1.06, a 6% drop would take us to parity again and the investor would be only be breaking even. As we push towards 1.10 or more I certainly wouldn't want to be investing in the AUD for 6-7% returns when the downside would be at least 10%, perhaps 20% more as US ends QE 2 and QE 3 looks less likely. Thoughts?
  4. bvbfan

    IRC

    The SPP was at 12c so that may be tested first.
  5. EQN is gonesky it seems, board accept $8.15CAD offer from Barrick http://www.kitco.com/pr/1872/article_04252011074839.pdf Interesting Barrick primarily a gold company would go for a copper stock.
  6. DGR holds 35.2million SOLG shares = 13million 52 million MET shares = 28.6million 58 million ANW shares = 8.7million With the 27 million NVG @ 20c that would be 5.4million Total holdings around 55.7million vs market cap of 50.5million. No value for the other potential spin offs I reckon its worth keeping an eye on, especially if NVG comes on at a large premium
  7. I doubt EQN will be taken over by Minmetals. I also doubt the shareholders of EQN are dumb enough to accept a lowball bid from them (and Michelmore) I still contend that what he did couldn't have been done any better by someone trying to destroy a company. I'd like to see EQN buy out OZL to be honest ;P If the OZL strategy is still to focus on Asia Pacific region (I note the last preso hinted it might not be) then may look at some of the deposits in PNG. Marengo looks to be a developing into a large scale development.
  8. A cheap shot by Minmetals and the 3 time looser Michelmore. I'd be wary of having to do anything with him ever again after previous stuff ups at WMC, Zinifex & Oz Minerals. Interesting disclosure that FIRB had news of the takeover on March 11. I would think it would market sensitive news. Would have thought Minmetals would have announced earlier. I would hope Equinox had no knowledge of it before Friday.
  9. Well I've been away from this board for a while, fed up with the stupid rip off deal that was forced on us. Still surprized that only 1.7billion shares voted on the deal, what about the other 1.5billion? Hard to see them just ignore the deal. Couldn't really be bothered dealing with the idiots of the management team. Having read a few of the posts and saw a corker. Bruce Loveday as the chief strategist. LMAO that fool couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Considering he couldn't even answer numerous non sensitive questions I put to them in 2008. Seeing Tony Manini has signalled his intention to jump ship as well, looks like one of the few people that had any credibility in this company. Anyway I've plugged in numbers for PH and the cash (if it really exists) and come up with about $1.50 valuation. $1.15 or so for just the operations. Funny I was derided for stating a certain other company would be higher than OZL in a years time, certainly did better out of switching into that than staying here.
  10. Avebury wasn't in production until 2008 from what I believe. The estimates might have been $2 or so when Allegiance were doing their studies but from the reports I've seen, the costs were at least $4/lb+ once Zinifex had taken them over. At current metals prices if Sepon, Golden Grove, PH and Century were in production then the refinancing shouldn't be a problem. Copper forward sales could be locked in around $2 until March 2011 which would take care of quite a bit of the debt. Sell Martabe, hedge 50% of production in copper and try to hedge some of the zinc (which I can't get forward prices for) At full rates of production the cashflows from copper alone are close to $500million now. The idiots look like selling out the assets at the bottom again.
  11. Hi all, I have been offline the past 6weeks due to stuffs with Telstra. Anyway, the FIRB block IMO is great in the national interest side but probably means the company will go into adminstration. This actually isn't that bad IMO. It will provide a way for the board to be sacked and a new strategy to be implemented. If adminstrators aren't as stupid and incompetent as the management we have. I'd like to see more jobs cut from corporate, like the spin doctors who do nothing for the company now anyway. With the bounce in commodity prices, Century could be close to break even (if you believe the company spin). Sepon and PH would be very cashflow positive. Those two would provide about $250million. If all the other assets - Century, Golden Grove, Avebury, Martbabe are sold for $500million total then with some hedging we could be debt free in 3-4years by my simple calcs. Seeing the Inside Business interview birdbrain Michelmore, stating that it was Minmetals or bust really isn't the smart thing to say. But then I have said numerous times that he is an IDIOT (of the highest order) and INCOMPETENT. I guess shareholders still think he can save this company. Best thing shareholders can now do is start talking to your local members of parliament and try to see if they can gauarantee some the debt. Seems unlikely and realistically best outcome is adminstration and sacking of the board that way.
  12. bvbfan

    MOL

    Cashed-Up Moly Mines Looks For Another Party To Go To While The Molybdenum Price Remains Down In the Dumps from Minesite What do you do when you're all dressed-up and ready to party, only to discover that the party has been cancelled? The Australian answer is not to waste a shower and a shave, but simply to find another party. That is pretty much what the emerging molybdenum producer, Moly Mines is doing. Whacked over the head by a collapse in the molybdenum price, Moly is on the hunt for something profitable to do with the A$127 million it had in the bank as of 31st December. Rather than push ahead with full-scale development on its Spinifex Ridge molybdenum-and-copper deposit in Western Australia, Moly Mines is instead looking at a scaled down version of the project, to be supplemented by possible investments in other mine development projects, in particular one or more of the new mines which are near the end of the construction phase, but which have been hit by the credit and capital markets freeze. "We're effectively in a holding pattern", says how Moly chief executive Derek Fisher, when Minesite's Man in Oz pops in to his Perth office for a chat. "We can see how to proceed with a start-up plant at Spinifex Ridge, which would be half the original, and then grow later. The design is modular, and drawing a line down the middle is easy. It is also possible to start mining the high-grade core of the orebody to maximise output of molybdenum and copper. But, even with changes like that it will be hard to raise finance with the molybdenum price around US$10 a pound." No-one believes that the price of the metal will stay low for long. Its major use is in making special steels, such as those expected to be in high demand as government-funded infrastructure projects pop up around the world. However, it would be a brave man who predicts a rapid return to the US$33 per pound average price that was enjoyed by molybdenum miners over the first nine months of 2008. Even rapid and widespread production cuts by major moly producers will take time to filter through to the price. It's this realistic outlook which has Fisher - with the backing of the major financiers of Moly Mines - on the hunt for other assets. "You only have to look around the industry today to see that there are bargain investments on offer," Fisher says. "We've got a list of a number of mine developments around the world, some of them 90 per cent complete, which have run out of money." Fisher, diplomatically, declines to name names. But Minesite's Man in Oz, coming from a school of journalism which abandoned manners some time ago, immediately tosses a few names at him, starting with Windimurra Vanadium, which is negotiating a fresh capital injection to complete construction at its Windimurra mine, and then moving on to Lynas Corporation, which is seeking funds to finalise its Mt Weld rare earths mine. Those two names draw a lightning fast "of course not," from Fisher - so fast, in fact, that even Fisher has to laugh. "Let's say we are looking closely at about six", he says referring to a hypothetical list of "incomplete" mines. "They are located around the world, but we're trying to do something in Australia. Windimurra might be a good example. It has some debt which might be available at the right price. If you look at Fortescue Metals, it has debt trading at around US50 cents in the dollar. Now, you've got to believe that Windimurra's debt is worth less than that. Lynas is another possibility for a potentially opportune investment, if we can renegotiate the debt." Fisher makes it clear that hunting for an alternative investment is opportunity-driven, while Moly waits for the main event – the hoped for improvement in the molybdenum market which will clear the way for the company to proceed with Spinifex Ridge. Work on the project is at a very advanced stage, whether as a full-scale US$1 billion project, or in two halves. At its full size, ore production would total 20 million tonnes per year, for the recovery of 24 million pounds of molybdenum and 27.3 million pounds of copper. Half-size is, well, half those numbers. "We're well advanced on designing a plant processing between eight and 10 million tonnes of ore a year, with a future expansion to the full size of 20 million tonnes a year", says Fisher. "Advantages in the smaller start-up include an enhanced grade profile" - by which he means mining the high grade core early - "a lower strip ratio, relaxation of concentrate specifications, and a much lower capital requirement, which makes financing easier. However, having said that, it's hard to finance any mine developments in this market." The good news in regard to molybdenum, such as it is, is to be found in the speed at which producers slashed production as soon as the downturn hit. "Worldwide molybdenum production cutbacks are as high as 30 per cent", Fisher says. "Once cut, it's hard to turn production back on quickly, which means any increase in demand will flow quickly into the price. When economic recovery kicks in, especially with the promised infrastructure programme, you could see a solid rebound. Moly is a metal used in a variety of construction steels, similar to manganese and vanadium." On the stock market, there are early signs of revived interest in Moly Mines. After an astonishing run, up to a mid 2007 peak of A$7.06, the company sank to a low of just A17 cents in late November of 2008. Since touching that bottom, Moly has re-arranged its project development profile and arranged a line of credit to keep its business ticking over. By early January, the share price had risen as high as A45 cents, before settling back to around A30 cents, a price which is either close to double where it was in November, or a fraction of where it was in mid-2007. Glass half-full, or glass half-empty? The answer to that conundrum depends on what happens next.
  13. You really have to question the intelligence of the board. Any company that hires these clowns in any capacity deserves to go down. First the idiots said we would sell assets to pay out the debt, PH + Martabe would have taken care of the debt and left at least $100-400million. Sepon is still profitable, Golden Grove perhaps still profitable. Century would probably be loss making at 50c. Now they have given up and decided to sell the lot.
  14. Clap clap clap for the brilliant management team we have. So now they chuck in the towel. What use is it having them around any longer? Notice they have used a scheme of arrangement again so does this mean shareholders get no vote again? If possible we must call the EGM and oust the incompetence and useless board. I could bring more value to the board in my pinky that the lot of them there already
  15. bvbfan

    Copper

    BarCap think it's the start of a multi-week strong rally for commodities and commodity stocks. They see that copper has carved out a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern over the past three months. If Friday's strong gains are held in the next few days we could see much higher prices. The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed net speculative position is heavily short to the tune of 31% of Open Interest. The last time in January 2007 when the market similiarly short the price of copper jumped 50% iver 3 months. BarCap believe if copper manages to break above US$3610 it could rise all the way up to US$4600 to meet trendline resistance.
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