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NightStalker

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  1. Malaysian elections held yesterday - and the ruling BN won by 133 seats to 89. There was a swing against them, and of course Anwar Ibrahim is crying foul, as expected. There will be a few challenges, but it looks to be done and dusted. So, now that the political landscape has sorted itself out, and the dust will settle, hopefully the sovereign/political risk will have been removed from the whole Lynas equation. And maybe (said he hopefully) the massive shorts will start to cover, and those, like JP Morgan who bought in at 75c, will now allow the share price to run and put them into profit. Also, now would be a good time for Lynas to announce a couple of things, like customers being satisfied with the samples, contracts confirmed, or even impending cashflow. And of course, the commissioning of Phase 2 of the LAMP. Then all I want (don't want much, do I?) is for the REE basket price to bounce off its current basement level and start to rise significantly. Wouldn't THAT be nice?
  2. Hi again Arty, and Mick Yes, I take your point, but when you talk about momentum, directional change, etc, that used to be seen as the summation of the behaviour of a lot of people, who collectively make up "the market". And it is their behaviour that is governed by sentiment. Iron ore price is up, so sentiment swings in favour of BHP, Rio, etc. That sort of thing. A resistance level is formed by the psychological barrier of a lot of people who perceive that level as a resistance. Once that breaks, and that level is seen as a support, it is because all those people consider that they are now safely above what was a psychological barrier. You get the idea. Those are the classical teachings of people like Weinstein, Elder, and countless others - they regard the patterns as reflections of what PEOPLE think, feel, do... My point is that the PEOPLE are now being taken more and more out of the equation by the computerized trading of all types. I think Mick "gets it" when he says that perhaps the bots etc will evolve their own sets of TA patterns that we - maybe - need to interpret differently over time. And I didn't take your previous post as having a go at me - no apology needed I am more than able to have a robust debate with somebody without taking it personally:) And in the case of "not in my lifetime" - perhaps that's my role - to extend your lifetime? Being a surgeon and all....
  3. Morning Arty I think what Schwartz is referring to - and I would agree - is AUTOMATIC stop losses. Nothing wrong with "manual" stops. The ones you apply yourself and physically have to activate by selling. The comments re TA are my take on the effect that algos, and HFT (and also dark pools) are having on the markets. TA has traditionally been all about the sentiment and the emotions of the markets, as represented by the charting, whether candlesticks, lines, point & figure charts or whatever. The various patterns that we have learnt over such a long time were interpreted to represent the sentiment of the markets, and used to predict probabilities as to what MAY happen next. All based on the prinicples that history tends to repeat, and also move in cycles. However, the use of algorithmic trading, HFT, and now dark pools, has corrupted all of that IMHO. The majority of trades involve NO emotion or sentiment at all - purely reactions of computers to other computers. Logic. No emotion. That is their supposed strength. You could interpret the downspike on the Dow a couple of nights ago as "fear" - but it wasn't really - it was purely a logic response from algorithms that reacted to the keywords in a fake tweet. Shorting (one of my pet hates as I'm sure you know) has traditionally been tolerated by those who don't short, on the basis of the expectation that at some stage the shorters will have to buy back in and cover, leading to short-covering rallies. But now, a big majority of the short covering occurs via dark pools, off market. So short covering rallies are getting more and more scarce - which could be one of the reasons we are seeing such depressed prices on so many stocks that are not "safe haven" stocks. They are being shorted to the basement, but then covered on the dark pools so the prices are not bouncing. So my contention is that all those lovely chart patterns, on which I based my trading for so many years, are getting more and more irrelevant. They are just pretty patterns traced by the algorithmic bot computers, and setting the predetermined closing price for the day in that juggling act we see in the closing 10 minute "auction". And your suggestion that we either get used to them or "get out of the kitchen" so to speak - that's exactly what I have done. I no longer trade. And people like Gottliebsen, Kohler, and a growing number of others are joining the chorus to ban algorithmic trading, particularly HFT, and perhaps shorting as well, to restore some semblance of faith to the markets in terms of those who want to invest rather than trade, and for the companies in which they invest who need to HAVE those investors for their capital. Just call me disillusioned, after trading based on TA for a VERY long time. The bots have ruined it for me.
  4. A couple of points: 1. Stop losses probably would NOT have been responsible for last night's plunge - those would (for the most part) have been set before the open, and the plunge was from a high base, and only down to the opening price (approx) before bouncing right back up. It would seem probable that most stops would have been set somewhere below the opening price - and not been hit. 2. The sell-off almost certainly was due to algos - many are programmed to read news items from multiple sources, and key words like "White House", "bomb", and "Obama" for instance, would have triggered these "smart" algorithms into piling into the sell side and simply selling down frantically with no human intervention. Any algos that had buys on the other side would have withdrawn them - and the plunge was exacerbated. Once humans got in on the act, and AP put out their "it was hacked" yell, then common sense prevailed and the bounce happened. But that plunge DOES highlight the potential problems with purely computerized trading systems - they are called "smart" but they're not really. And they have the potential to wreak havoc unintentionally, like last night. And of course, that then begs the question - what if that sort of response could be triggered deliberately by a malicious, say, foreign power? Is this the taste of what cyberwarfare will look like? First wipe out the financial systems (easily done, it would seem), then paralyse the power grid, the phone systems, and the traffic control systems. And so on - all done from a few hackers sitting in a room thousands of Km away.... Scary thoughts...!
  5. Doesn't take long, does it? Love it, even though it shouldn't be a source of humour
  6. Typo = of course 'PYC' in my post below should be 'LYC'. Unfortunately, this new ShareScene won't let me edit a post if there's been a reply already! Bummer.
  7. I doubt it. The current govt are most likely to be returned. Also, the opposition under Anwar have said that the LAMP will continue as long as it is proved to be safe - which we know it is. He has changed his rhetoric. Another thing is that these elections have been looming for months - yet we have only seen this sell-off and ridiculous shorting attack over the last few sessions. The price has been running sideways for ages (way too low, but sideways). Now this... There is a document that has been submitted to ASIC (that useless bunch of over-funded nobodies) that details the collusion of funds and institutions in the share price manipulation of PYC, along with BBG, CDU, and EGP. But nobody is expecting anything much to happen with it. The link to the document is here - pages 16-27 are all about Lynas, and well worth the read: http://www.scribd.com/doc/129258881/7-1-Re...LYC-BBG-and-EGP
  8. Oh dear, oh dear - massive selling and shorting attack - again! Where are all these shares coming from, and WHY? Apart from the weakish REE prices, the company is now producing, we have a new CEO as of today, everything looks fine on the legal front - what the hell is going on? When are we going to see any short-covering - if any? Most will probably be covered on the dark pools anyway, so unlikely that we'll see a decent short-covering rally like in the old days before the bots, dark pools, HFT, and rampant manipulation! This stinks!
  9. LYC were going to be profitable at $15/Kg basket price in the first place - so why wouldn't they be profitable with a basket price of $40-odd now? Certainly not as profitable as if the prices had stayed up in the bubble, but certainly still profitable, I would have thought...
  10. And all we get from such a momentous announcement is more shorting. The price has gone backwards in the two days since that announcement, while the share price and market cap of Summit Resources (SMM) has gone up big time (on low volume, admittedly - there ISN'T much volume left out there). And of course, Paladin own 82% of Summit, with Areva holding a 10% blocking stake. So - Summit's value has increased markedly, and Paladin own 82% of Summit, yet PDN shares have gone backwards - does something smell about that? Is it just shorters keeping a cap on it so they can cover at lower prices? PDN yesterday stood at number three most shorted stock on cumulative outstanding short positions. It's creeping up today, although still in the red. That could be the short covering occurring, I guess. But when will the brakes come off, and the share price run up to the $2-3 level at least? Paladin need to come out with a really great announcement now - John Borshoff at his chook-feeding best - regarding their plans for the Skal/Valhalla resources, Summit, Deep Yellow, etc. Maybe a deal with Areva for their 10% of SMM shares which would let PDN achieve the compulsory takeover level? Or a JV partner with deep pockets? Or selling off the entire SMM holdings but for a premium? Or hiving off the African operations and concentrating on Queensland? Anything that would put a rocket under the PDN share price would do....
  11. EDIT: I posted the below at the same time as Flower was posting his post below this one: =========================================================== I think perhaps that what Flower was getting at was that the prevailing trend depends on the timescale you're looking at. So, for intraday, or very short term traders, a stock may well be in an uptrend, and that can be traded. Whereas over a longer period, the prevailing trend may be down, etc. My point, though, is that the switches from short-term uptrends to short-term downtrends - i.e. The oscillations - seem to be much more sudden and much more pronounced than they used to be. And that is down to the computerized trading, I'm sure. WOW, just as one example, is in a prevailing uptrend that has lasted for over 6 months now. But the prevailing trend if one zooms out to show the last few years, is sideways -i.e. NO trend. It is at the same level now as it was in 2007. What used to be called a Stage 3 Top by Weinstein, in fact. Now, according to Weinstein, the PROBABILITY (not a certainty) is that WOW should head downwards sometime soon, in a Stage 4 downtrend. But the chance of that happening - the chance of it conforming to Weinstein's principles - would NOT be one that I'd bet on. Especially given the 6 month uptrend.... Look at the WOW chart zoomed all the way out, to the max. Classical Stages 1, 2 and 3 Weinstein patterns. But zoom in to the last 6 or 7 months - uptrend. Would you bet on a likely Stage 4 downtrend any time soon? Would you let FA factors come into it? Would you take into consideration the potential problems with the Masters hardware foray? Or the fact that people will still buy food - probably? Or would you go on pure TA, which would suggest that the Stage 4 decline should occur sometime not too far away? Or would you hold your fire until the downtrend is confirmed by a breach of support, with lower highs and lower lows? My feelings are that I would not place any meaning on the TA now, as the algos and HFT traders will take WOW wherever the hell they like. It could simply go up and down, a few days or weeks at a time, for decades to come.
  12. Hi Mista-G Actually - maybe it's time to change my sig line, as I'm not so sure that it DOES apply now. There is a lot more volatility, even within the prevailing trend, with sudden switches up and down. And the jumps and bumps seem much more "violent" than they were 10-20 years ago. I first adopted that sig line when I was enamoured of TA as the main way to trade. As I gradually started to take note of some basic FA, I found I was using technical indicators less - in fact, I was really starting to doubt that some of them were valid. That would have been about 7-8 years ago... Now, as my post some way below this one suggests, with all the computerized trading and the blatant manipulation of share prices in both directions by those computers, I think I have just about lost faith in TA. I really don't think it applies any longer. The whole basis of TA has been that the patterns, which tend to repeat over time, reflect the psychology of the market, the mass sentiment that prevails over time. That time may be as short as a day for the day traders, or over months or more for longer term traders. But I now fail to see how the patterns can reflect market sentiment, when at least 70% of the "market" is fully computerized and has NO sentiment at all? I have a friend who works on the trading desk of one of the very prominent trading banks. And virtually all he does now is sit and watch his 6 screens all day. There is still a bit of human input in that he decides which particular algo to run on which stock, but that's about as far as it goes. He used to trade on the floor, in the pit. Then he traded very actively on the trading desk in the main office. He would buy and sell all day, with various news tickers running across his screens, both global news agencies like Reuters, AAP, etc and financial ones like Bloomberg. He would react to what was going on in the world. And of course, the company announcements. But now, his main function is to watch the bots running to make sure they don't go "out of bounds" as he calls it. In other words, to flick the switch if there is the start of another "flash crash" or similar. As long as his bots stay within the programmed parameters, he just sits and watches. I've visited him there and seen him. The old days of blood, sweat, tears, and shouting in a high stress environment just don't seem to happen any more. I'm sure there are still plenty of prop traders who DO buy and sell manually, but currently about 70% of the market is computer to computer. And as I have said - there is no emotion or sentiment at all. Which, to me, makes TA all but meaningless. And that is from someone who was brought up on TA and spent years following Weinstein, Elder, Van Tharp, O'Neill, Guppy, and many others. I still have all the books, well thumbed. But now when I look at them - I feel very cynical about their relevance. And that is all due to the computerized trading that is taking over. I have therefore changed my sig line.....
  13. Yup - agree entirely. The sharks have been around since shares began. But they didn't have ultra high speed computers then, which not only assist the sharking, but nowadays they actually DO it for them - at ridiculously high speeds, and, most importantly, with NO EMOTION or sentiment at all. Zero. Purely mechanical and logical. Far more so than any human can be. The speeds these HFT computers use are so fast - measured in microseconds, not milliseconds - that the cable length affects the time by a microsecond or a fraction thereof and can give that infinitesimally small advantage to the opposition if your cable is just that bit longer. That's why the owners of the HFT computers spend big money to co-locate in the same server racks, and to pay all those mathematical coneheads to shave a few lines off the programming code to speed up the algo by a microsecond or two. It has been taken almost completely out of the hands of humans, and THAT is the problem. Not the sharks, the scams, the insider trading, the front-running per se. But the fact that no longer is there any human emotion or sentiment involved. No matter how logical or emotionless a shark is, he/she is nowhere near as emotionless as a computer following blind logic. And the retail punters - you and me - do not have access to that computing power, and we don't have the DMA (Direct Market Access) that is required to run them anyway.
  14. First - I love the two Border Collies in your avatar - my favourite pups Second - you speak from the viewpoint of some who is still working, and has an income to supplement. There is a LARGE group of people in Australia - the self-funded retirees - who are dependent on either the market, real estate, or bank interest, for their total income on which they live. The bank interest can be pretty well discounted, as that has been reduced for the sake of home mortgagees and small business loans. The amount obtained in bank interest now means that one needs a million or three in the bank to maintain that lifestyle portrayed in all the ads on TV - you know, the travel, the nice motor home, etc etc. It ain't gonna happen for most people. The real estate side of things may provide some income, if a person was already set up with full ownership of a few properties before the GFC and real estate downturn. But for those who weren't - the majority - the capital loss more than offsets the rental income. Of course that is only crystallized once they sell - or try to sell in a falling market. And then there are all the others - those with SMSFs and those with their super in managed funds. Their returns have been generally negative or flat, unless someone with a SMSF has been investing in high risk equities or CFDs. And risk is the operative word - CFDs in particular are a great way to lose all your money in one fell swoop. Fine if you're working and can replace it, but not it you're living on your super. That is why most self-funded retirees do NOT indulge in risky stuff like CFDs, hybrids, etc etc. And retirement should not be about having to sit watching the computer while hedging, trading, and risking one's super fund, either - it should be about enjoying life. So most self-funded retirees have their funds invested in so-called blue chips - BHP etc - and live on any dividends. BHP, incidentally, pays a measly divvie. Self-funded retirees are supposed to be the backbone of the aging population, whereby they cost the country nothing in terms of financial assistance. They are generally self-sufficient, and get no benefits whatsoever. No health care card, no pharmaceutical discounts - not even discounts for the movies. And here in Queensland, while a senior does get a discount on the train (not that the train service is anything really useful) they certainly don't get the $2 anywhere thing that those in NSW get, for example. So most self-funded retirees, who are in fact saving the country money, are dependent on the markets either directly (in a SMSF) or indirectly (in a managed fund). And the markets are so rigged and manipulated now that the returns on their super are going backwards at an ever-increasing rate. So while you can treat the market as an income supplement, and also afford to take some extra risks (eg using CFDs or whatever), most self-funded retirees cannot do this. If the market goes down, and if the interest rates go down, then their income goes down. Big time. Some have to go back to work. Some are not able to go back to work for various reasons. But the dream of the average Aussie to retire in moderate comfort, travel around, and enjoy life, is being, and has been, destroyed by the financial vultures - the financial industry - who suck the money out of the markets, and whose only reason for existing is to make money out of other people. They create nothing, they produce nothing, they generate a self-perpetuating circle of money-making for themselves and each other. They are true parasites, they ignore most financial regulation, and they are the ones driving the Porsches, Maseratis, and Mercs. The other ones that must shoulder some - or a lot - of the blame are the company boards of directors. Show me a company where the board is ACTUALLY looking after the shareholders' interests - both major and minor shareholders - and I'll show you a couple of pigs lining up on the runway ready for takeoff. Most boards act in the interests of themselves, their own pockets, and the bonus system. I can't recall a single case where a board member has resigned on principle because they disagree with a board decision that goes against the interests of the shareholders....! So, to summarize - yes, your interest in the markets is all well and good, as you appear not to be dependent on them. But the forgotten people are the self-funded retirees, a very large group, who DO depend on the markets on way or another.
  15. That article is out of date, and also doesn't take into account that the appeal by the Kuantan residents - three of them - was rejected by the minister. This was announced late yesterday, in a letter to the appellants, and should be announced to the market on Monday by Lynas. The discussion of the Parliamentary Select Committee's report (which also favours Lynas) is due to be debated on Tuesday. The TOL could be issued within a few days - depends on whether or not the goalposts are moved yet again. But I really can't see why LYC would need a cap raising - they have plenty of cash, plus big time investors such as Sojitz, and of course the $250 million from the Mt Kellet group. If the TOL is issued, then it would take between 44 and 60 days for the first feed to go through the plant, with 44 days being the norm, but allowing a few extras for the first one. All of the output is sold for about 10 years....! I gather that the concentrate is sitting on the wharf at Freo just waiting to be loaded. It will take about 5 days sailing, plus whatever time to import, process, and transport the stuff to the LAMP at the other end before first feed can occur. So I would disagree about a cap raising - they will have earnings starting from the first throughput. Lots of earnings...
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