Jump to content


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by nohoper

  1. **AUDUSD -- if you equate the audusd pair as a good risk-on risk-off indicator, then take this as a caution coz the recent rate cut has made the AUD less appealing to the free+cheap money mobs, which naturally would translate to lesser liquidity and lesser risk takers, which again translate into lesser equity investors since equity is defined as a "risky" investment, etc... dig? Ok, watch where audusd is travelling, and if it doesn't rebound from here quickly, chances are you are looking at more bunge jumps, possibly to 98, which again would translate to more risk-off moves, away from equity that is. ** line chart version showing a clearer break down in the 4-mth trend, just so you can see what I meant.
  2. ** Yo! 'tis all about FMG and io, again... I know, the price is holding at the moment, but do you know what kind of future lies ahead for you fmg believers? Huh? According to S&P, fmg is the world's most vulnerable io miner, go read about it and then cross your fingers, ok? And don't get fooled by the current stock price because the real test is in the next reporting season when+where fmg will be forced to answer the many not too nice questions like "how're you doing lately?"... and doing well will depend a lot on the io price staying above 110? Or 130? or whatever, just fill in your own number. Whatever it is, and no matter how much fmg is selling -- it won't be enough! That is, it won't be enough for it to report that kind of profit number the investors were so used to in the past. And that's what the believers will be subjected to. Translated, it would/could mean severe market reaction if/when the result is less than satisfactory... yes, it would mean sh** as usual. ** next, here's this news on Norway's io dream... thought you might want to know because it makes one wonder how could they compete with Australia with them being this far away from China, yet, the truth is they (the Norwegians and the Brazilians) are here competing nice and easy against the Aussies! What's happening here? Well, if there's a market+moral truth in all these... is this -- if China doesn't buy from them, they wouldn't stand a chance. It's a free market out there after all? Right? Probably yes and no, I reckon. Being the world's largest io producer country and being located this near to China, it's a shame that this country let+allow all these lesser producers+competitors stealing market share away from it. Australia could probably supply all China's need of io but for some reason Australia is not! Do you know why? Can you see where my finger is pointing to or not? http://www.sharescene.com/style_emoticons/default/devilsmiley.gif
  3. ** Everyone loves a rally I know... but at some point they should keep this in mind -- all rallies would die eventually. This time, let me jump the gun and raise this how long is the string question -- when will this rally die? Do you know why I ask? Coz I hate rally! No no nonononono.... wrong, it's not about my hate and love, but rather it's about my gut feeling (feeling bloated right now!). It gets worse as the rally drags into October and into the end of the year coz these are dangerous times. You got the "Black October" precedence to remember, and you got the Presidential election to watch out for. And then, you have QE's firing from all sides injecting an artificialness into the rally. On top of all these, you are reading about China's economy slowing down which is affecting Australia's commodity exports. And the baddest sh** of all, the EU is walking headlong into a winter of discontent, with recession tearing their societies apart, and then the baddest of the baddest sh** is the potential sovereign default of one of the PIIGS bringing forth the collapse of EUR (I know this is a little dramatic, but the fear is quite real to some, ok?)... But none so worst than the US fiscal cliff, which has a fairly high % to happen, well after the new president is elected! If Obama gets elected, the fiscal grid lock will continue, which means sh**! If Romney gets elected, Don Bernanke will get his arse kicked and quite likely his QE would terminate prematurely. So you see, how can you, a sensible rational logical all reasoning expert market observer and all that, could possibly rest easy and are holding on, hoping for more rally and greater profit? See I am all heart here? It's all about caring and loving here since Xmas is getting near, and all the fund managers are taking their family for a long break soon and naturally it would be window dressing time, if not now then soon, etc... and blah blah blah. It's all about you, my dear visitor, you dig or not? I am so worried about your profit, or your loss of potential profit here that I am writing all these. All for you! And just for you! Woo hoo! Sob sob sob... Anyway, time for some serious stuff, like more bad news to kill the jolly mood. From DBS as usual...
  4. DXY - the market is looking quite pathetic probably waiting for the RBA rate decision. The market opinion on rate cut generally is divided into two camps, ie, pro vs con, and here are two typical pieces: Why the RBA must not cut rates... vs Great urgency in an RBA snip... , give them a glance over to at least make yourself a little less ignorant of the fuss, and yes, try not to end up like moi - a simpleton! Btw if you are wondering, I think Adam's piece is more convincing as Australia's economic condition is that much better comparing with other OECD countries, which makes the rate cut less urgent. Why fire all guns when you don't need to? Use them only when necessary and when they give you the maximum impact. In any case, who can tell what the RBA will do next? Back to DXY, yes, the follow up, can see what I said the other day on its possible turning points? Well, it did turn at 80.14 instead of 80.17, close enough and you should take that as a caution but it would be prudent not to jump to any definitive conclusion as it probably needs more time for the punters to firm up their opinion on their next move. If you are anxious, the best thing to do is to offload some... it's good for your trading soul. Trust me!
  5. The European conundrum... ** if your participation in the market has been counting on: a) the US QE3, and b) the EU's OMT (or Oh My Turd) and the bank debt+recapitalisation resolution... you cannot get a better answer than the above and therefore you gotta reappraise your plan or get your moment of Waterloo. The bottom line is simply this -- you cannot expect someone else to pay for all your debt just so you can have another go at it without paying an equivalent price (in kind at least). There is no free lunch in this world, more so, there must not be any free lunch in a capitalist system or the whole system would cease to function. There wouldn't be a jungle if the jungle rules are not adhered. The PIIGS must not think or believe they can get away from paying their due and their banks must not be allowed to walk away from their erroneous deals scot free. No matter how noble, how serious, how important, how critical the media pundits write about resolving the PIIGS problem through a common union, fiscal or otherwise, the capitalist and free market truth remains this -- you stuff up, so you fix it. Counting on others to fix your problem? For you because you believe you are indispensable? Yeah, may be, at a small price probably. But hoping others to help you out with them facing the risk of bankrupting themselves? You'd got to be joking, mate! In any case, Germany and other relatively debt free European countries are not fools, or their respective leaders would get their due punishment from their people. After all, they practise some kind of democracy don't they?
  6. ** BS-free+free service as usual. There's no form to fill, no question to answer and no money to pay and no outrageous opinion on why China's economy must doom even though this country's fortune is deeply entwined with it... yes, this is not a newsletter, obviously. Gold -- as a punter or trader, you should be very sceptical and cautious on price movement that is too good to be true, even though your eyes are seeing it... like they say behind every cloud there's a silver lining, and behind every silver lining, there's a dark cloud not far behind, so, yeah, the trading moral here is believe what you see and believe what you can see not far further ahead and be prepared to take your money and run. Currently the decision you need to make is quite simple: 1) will ellipse B learns from ellipse A and then acts like A; 2) bet against a "broadening top", that is, watch everyone that is making a nice and decent profit and watch who is gonna lose his nerves and pulls the trigger first. Still remember the Mexican standoff in "the Good, the Bad and the Ugly" where Clint Eastwood spent most of his time talking to an empty chair and then killed the baddestass of them all? Yeah, you got it! DXY -- this time the gold movement has much to do with Bernanke's QE and EU's QE and China's reactive QE... basically they all have an erosive and corrosive effect on the value of fiat currency which makes stuffs such as hardware+hardassets appealing as a hedge+insurance option. But since commodity has been through many cycles of upswing and is reaching its peak with China reaching a stage of regurgitating what it had swallowed, betting against a higher level of commodity cycle without a credible demand source frankly is quite "unwise", and this has made gold look appealing, esp after its recent 6mths+ decline, making it relatively "cheap" to the "free money" mobs whose godfather is either Don Bernanke or Don Draghi... ... this makes gold relatively sensitive to DXY movement and so you gotta watch DXY, and right now it is making itself "an obvious ass" by inching upward without a care and forming a bearish flag. This could go on for a while or it could just reverse itself and plunge back to the valley... and here's where you need to keep an eye -- the recent historical peaks usually give you an indication because this is what punters+traders do -- they like to go back to old haunt or waterhole to find their next prey+goodies. If DXY is gonna turn, chances are quite high it will do so at that two levels, so keep an eye. And yes, good luck to those who bought NCM at 22.00 with a 30% profit... surely there must be a limit to greed?
  7. Michael Pettis again -- on China's exports retreat... ** Swan called them teapartiers cranks and crazies... does he include Pettis as well? Coz he is just as twisted as them teapartiers. Of the above 3 so called mechanisms, #1 is arguable because not too long ago China raised its exchange rate by close to 30% and yet not much changes had happened and the trade gap between two countries had in fact got worse. There were many arguments, but roughly it can be explained this way -- the Americans need the Chinese stuffs, while those American stuffs the Chinese want are not for sale, stuffs like high tech goods and weaponry, etc... #2 is all about the Chinese internal system and frankly if Pettis think it is a good mechanism for the economy, he should argue to get the Americans changing their system to that of the Chinese' and become an autocratic communist regime and stop giving the people their "freedom" and choices, including wealth distribution. At this point, there really isn't much to crow about the American system btw -- just note the rich in the USA are getting richer and how the people's money is used to pay for all the bank debts. #3 note his logic and bs plus his blindness -- artificially low interest rates -- hell o? Can anyone tell me what is the interest rate in the USA currently? Huh? Negative rate if you take inflation into account! And there's no telling what's the real inflation rate is coz "they" keep changing their "methodology", a bit like cranks and crazies! And yet negative rate is no help to the American exports! So just what is Pettis actually talking about here? Is he blind or what? The American exports don't seem to be rising, if at all, it is quite negligible or they would be crowing about it all over the Net! So just how credible is his argument that China's competitiveness is mainly due to their artificially low interest rate? If he is not stupid and blind, there's nothing more artificial than Bernanke's QE regime! But look how conveniently he avoid talking about it in all, if not most of this blogs. Sheesh!
  8. Better China links... ** I know there isn't much "feel good" factor about China to many, but spare a thought about Australia's need for increase national income, esp if+when the commodity super cycle turns down and there's a need to look at other export sectors to support this growing need; and let's not forget that this country is still growing and there is always this added pressure of increasing mouths to feed... Thus far, if you care, I believe you would have noticed Australia is facing a pretty serious "Dutch Disease" with other export sectors outside the mining sector facing various degree of decline, opportunities to an extent are passing by this country and export income streams are getting narrower. The need for Australia to expand into new areas and new region is getting more acute by the day. With Asia just by the next door and with their growing need for services, this is one area I believe Australia+Australians have a natural advantage over the other more advanced economies from the West, because it's only human nature they want to do business with us... for many reasons, but primarily it's mainly driven by self interest -- everyone wants a stable prosperous neighbour -- a stable neighbour means a more peaceful coexistence. Better still, if the neighbours share a common interest, a shared prosperity, where there are ties that bind, where they can count on each other in times of trouble... The Asians are less concerned, less worried and less troubled if Europe is in upheaval because it is that far away. It's a similar mentality if the Americas are in trouble... coz it's out of sight, hence it's out of mind. Quite a natural human reaction. But I doubt if they are this indifference if Australia, or NZ and the S.Pacific are in turmoil. ... but why is Australia not exploiting this natural advantage? The day this country finds the way to release itself from this mental hurdle is the day Australia's prosperity will rise to a whole new level -- 'tis my belief. But I won't be holding my breath...! The following are a series of cut and paste from a very long report. I am posting them here because of the many "stupid" views on China and its impending economic bust. While those who propagate them are raking in $ from the clueless, the Asians are holding quite a different view, please help yourself, esp pay attention to the part on the rising Service PMI coz this is where it translates into opportunity to Australia, and for many Australians who have the training, skill and talent to convert that into real prosperity for themselves, and to this country.
  9. M, I wouldn't call that little blunders as far as Australia's spending on "useless" military weaponry+equipment is concerned comparing with the so called NBN cost blowout. Turnbull's argument against the current NBN plan has been mainly built on cost issue which in my view reflects a lot of ostrich mentality with picky eyes and selective vision. If he wants to be respected as a leader and if he wants his "new (but actually old)" NBN alternative to be taken seriously, he should address and raise all the cost issues fairly and squarely. In fact the more I read about his plan, the more I found it's a badass piece of plan. He should feel ashamed of his politicking on such important national issue. Cheers. ps: I believe bad+fake parts are not just limited to the US navy, there were earlier reports on aircraft (both military+commercial) components being supplied by the various contractors as well. Just fancy how it will turn out the day the US goes to war with Russia or China, can't wait!
  10. Bernanke toils in a policy purgatory... & This is Bernanke's QE3, 4, 5 and 6... ** can you hear their cheers loud and clear? Can you see the market rallying? Yes? Hmmm, all good... and can you see the USA becoming Japanese down the road? No? It's okay. Who cares what is going to happen in the next 5, 10 or 20 years! Let's party! But before that here's a view from Asia: ** just note the last point -- when the Fed has to back track... -- keep this in mind, the key word here is "when"! One thing for sure, it won't be less than 3 years since Big Ben has promised he would keep it up to 2015, and with this in mind try imagine what it will do to a person's psyche. There's this quote that says -- Spoon feeding in the long run teaches us nothing but the shape of the spoon -- and this shall be Bernanke's sin. QE will make the USA remain uncompetitive for a long long time. It will all come to grief. Just wait for the American lost decades!
  11. FMG - daily chart: please say a little prayer for those brave souls who held on to this stock... coz today is the day of reckoning for some of them. Very simply they have to deal with the usual stay or go question, which as always, the tendency is for them to make the usual after-effect dumb decision, that is, they got cold feet and decided to bail, after today. After the sp has dropped about 14% from yesterday's price and after they were reminded by this "friendly neighbourhood chartist wannabe" many times over. So should they stay or should they go? Well, the decision was much easier yesterday because it was quite clear the stock price has plenty of room to go lower. Today, now, the decision has become much harder because what goes down doesn't automatically mean it will go back up like a lift. Chances are the sp will stay down for quite awhile. The most likely outcome is for it to move sideway, going through a period of consolidation or base building or buying&selling between the bulls and bears, etc without much swing either way. Sideway movement is probably a good outcome for the believers because it is a sign that the stock has not been abandoned and that there are likely strong hands or big $ accumulating the stock in the quiet. My bet though is to expect the sp to drop further because... let's be frank -- there is a macro correction on going out there, where the Chinese demand cycle seems to be edging down while the supply cycle seems to be reaching higher -- it doesn't make sense to hope all these to change overnight and reverse all the negatives to positives, the reality won't allow that, but then no one can stop anyone from dreaming about that though. ...so yeah, watch the recent low of 2.81 and see if it holds. Or better still hope it rebounds from here back to 3.50 just like the day before, never can tell, after all this is a stock market. FMG seeks 12 months debt relief... & News on io pricing...
  12. Stop targeting Australia's wealthiest... ** so say this dude Jac just because he is the chairman of BHP? For a while I thought he is a politician, hmmmm... just when did the wealthiest in this country being targeted? All these while I was of the impression that it's the other way round, and it's the wealthiest in this country trying to play politics with their money and influence. "They" did manage to get rid of Krudd, didn't they? I meant the cyclical mob who doesn't want to pay any new taxes be it good time or bad? Didn't Clive Palmer want to get rid of some politician and didn't he form some kind of political party? So if the wealthiest want to give, they have to learn to take too. They can't be dishing out crap to the politicians all the time and not getting some back, can they? I think it's a fair world out there. I think Australia is a fair place, esp to the wealthiest since they can afford the best lawyers their money can buy... so what's the problem huh? What's the use of crying foul, Jac? May be, they should consider this advice -- if you can't stand the heat, stay away from the kitchen -- who know, it might just work for them part time wealthy politicians. But please no crying out! Sheesh!
  13. Lies, blind and mining... & Does no one understand the mining industry? ** here's the aftermath of someone shaking the mining tree, or rocking the mining boat... I am just glad that he mentioned the RSPT and MRRT -- and pleased be reminded that these policies were introduced during the GOOD time! When money was aplenty! And guess what happened? The "mining industry" conveniently forgot about the "cyclicality" of itself and fought tooth and nail to get rid of any attempt of new taxes and it went as far as getting rid of the leader of the day! So what has changed? Hello? Good time is not a good time to raise taxes. Bad time is of course not a good time to raise taxes! What's new? Can anyone still remember the last few years how much cash+profit and how loaded were these mining companies? Nope, of course not! And what irked me most was bulk of these profits and good money were taken out of this country, to someone else's pocket! Yeah, sure... let's be fair -- you lose some, and you win some! Such is life... If the industry is so freaking caring and smart, it should have been more genuine to give back some to the people, but I reckoned they didn't. They did fa nothing at all... they conveniently forgot their industry is cyclical. And now they tell us! Ha! Well, there's only one way to find out -- let's put it to test! If they have to close their mines, go ahead! If people have to lose their jobs, yes, so be it -- the truth is, whether there's new taxes or not, these people's jobs has already been lost, it's just a timing issue. And now, they have the excuse and why not? Let's see if they will choose to close down their more profitable mines if they meant business. Or I'd call them liars!
  14. FMG - daily+intrday: a follow up... but first this news: Relief for Fortescue... ** The decline in FMG's share price performance is not an overnight surprise, it actually happens over quite a long period of time, the chart is showing a 6 months zigzag decline, but I believe those who are close to the io+steel market knew well what's ahead, except they were not telling. That's all. Presently, after 7 sessions, the sp seems to be showing a fair bit of fight back, but don't let this fools you coz FMG is not out of danger at all! The io price might be jumping hopping and skipping but that does not translate into big deal automatically for FMG. In fact, that means nothing to FMG's on going bottom line. So yeah, rejoice if you want. Take the risk and stay on if you want... but just remember the debt is still yet to be paid, and this is a certainty. While revenue and profit, which lie in the future, are yet to be earned and there's no certainty that there will be enough of them to cover the debt -- and this issue is as real and as painful as the boil on your butt.
  15. Iron ore price decline jeopardises Oakajee: analyst... ** really? I wonder. In 2010 the io price was not this bad. In 2011, it wasn't this bad either. But already by then there were bad news all round. The project was delayed and then more... truth is "they" don't have enough money, or capital, or cash, or $$, the usual "no money no talk" fact of life matter. Next, even assuming they somehow managed to complete the project, "they" are not sure if there will be enough demand to absorb the production, another fact of life matter -- you need two hands to clap -- if you wanna keep the Chinese out just make sure you can find an alternate market that can absorb what you produced! And now? One word -- STUFFED! Everybody loses! ... and here lies the lesson on Cubbie Station, so let's wait and see if money for nothing is for real!
  16. Australia is becoming a sovereign risk? &... Australia: Nil all... ** funny that the above should appear, the immediate echo that appears in my mind is -- doesn't this sound like the banks telling everyone that they are too too big to fail? That's how you win an argument if you are losing -- you build up the the fear and next you hit them with fury and threat! So here's the next question: will all the big miners take their bats, sulk all the way home? Doubt it! They will stay around for as long as there are good profits to be made! Those that cried the loudest are usually the ones that have most to lose. Those mines that got closed down are the ones that are not making money... ...but the profitable ones? Well, read their lips -- somehow it sounds like "no freaking way!"... politics is one thing, profit is another -- no one in their sensible mind will want to cut off their own limps, and profit. So yeah, I like it -- it's about time Australia starts to lock in some profit for Australians and not sending it away as some kind of forex numbers in some foreigners' accounts! ** next, back to RG's write-up, there is a glaring point worth noting -- don't you hate populist politics? Well, that's the price Australia has got to pay by becoming too Americanised! Too bad and yeah, learn to deal with it!
  17. Waiting for Beijing... ** if you were to replace the word "China" or "Chinese " with "the USA" or "American" I'd bet you will find the above is just as apt to describe what is happening in this American's home country. And here lies the problem -- most Americans talk as if their own country is squeaky clean in terms of freedom and/or economic freedom, or exemplary in running an efficient+effective economy -- the truth is, it's far from it. And the truth is most of these self righteous Americans are fooling themselves into this self delusional view of themselves in terms of economic achievement. If only they can/could count and start taking stock of what had really happened to their economy and their political situation -- they are both highly dysfunctional! Or Bernanke wouldn't be running his QE program as if there's no tomorrow. Or their politics wouldn't be so polarised to the extent that some part of their population is willing to denigrate their own president, for the fact that he is a black man, and by raising the absurd question on the validity of his birth certificate! Politically, the lobbyist system places profits and politics before economics, the partisanship in the system is making sure that there's no compromise in budget and deficit control, the politicians are putting power and self interest ahead of national interest, so much so that the runaway debt deficits are now forcing the system towards the fiscal cliff -- how in the world he could point his finger at the Chinese system without feeling a tinge of embarrassment? ... for someone whose own country's economy is busted with huge deficit + debt, with high unemployment... may be he should start by describing how "free" or "unfree" the American economy in allocating resources. Are they mostly utilised in food stamps and or tax free giveaways to the rich and the millionaires? Sheesh! ps: if you are going to pay for the "China's bust" crap they are flogging, here's what you should do -- first pin them down by asking them when will it happen -- if it happens within a year, pay them 10% first and tell them when it actually happens you will mail them the rest of 90%. If it doesn't happen within 5 years, tell them to return your 10%. If it doesn't happen in 10 years, ask them to pay you a fee+50% more to read their crap! And my bet is they probably don't have a clue when China's bust will happen! Coz if they are not blind, it probably won't happen in another 15-20 years time as this is the time the rest of the world would take to recover from the current doldrums.
  18. It's a yes man's world... **RG truly speaks my mind with this gem... hope you share the same sentiment too. There has been too much crap happening in that area for so long, someone has got to do something to take them to account.
  19. Big4 - daily chart+intraday: just in case you are still rejoicing over the io miners' rebound, here's a reminder -- don't forget your banks - they are all showing short term topping pattern except NAB. Serious correction has not happened yet but my gut feel is it won't take much to push them over. So, it will be decision time soon. The earlier you are prepared, the better. Coming back to NAB, this one is behaving a bit like a beast, instead of following the pack, it shows a pretty well formed bullish flag so who knows it might just go against the norm one day... best see this as a risk than good fortune in my view coz NAB is not without its worry. ** next, back to the farm and xenophobia on foreign investment..., Clancy Yeates is being too kind too nice and too gentle to pick at some others' mental wound, but let's face it -- there are flaws somewhere and they just have to look deep into the mirror and analyse their own psyche, and possibly, ego; other than these yeah I guess it's all about money for nothing and chicks are free thingy. Also it's worth their while to remember some of the earlier lessons. And let's take MMX as an example: at one time it was selling at 2.00 based on my record, do you know how much it is selling now? 4.1c! Great result. I know its price doesn't show what's actually happening, but it serves to remind some people this money truth -- it doesn't stay around waiting for you to pick your nose. If you don't grab the opportunity, it will flow elsewhere. The worst kind of outcome is to see this good money flowing over to the other part of the world, possibly in Africa, or S.America, or Central Asia, whatever and becomes some others' fortune. While you hold on to your bankrupt piece of unproductive land... sure, keep your farm and keep your family jewel and feel good about it and hope that one day it doesn't become another MMX. Big mine, big deposit, big project needs big money! Likewise, large farm, esp the bankrupted variety needs a lot more to make it productive. It's not about unnecessary worry, fear, ego and nose picking. Enuf said.
  20. ** the AsiaPac bourses all shown great reaction to the Chinese impending stimulus spending last night comparing to other regions, which tells a lot, in a sense I would take that to reflect the much closer economic dependency of the smaller Asian nations on the Chinese econ engine... yes I know, the previous Chinese stimulus had been wasteful, yes, it's bad, yes it's out of control, yes, it's whatever the naysayers want it to be and is mainly bad I know. But here's this fundamental difference between Chinese QE vs the European or the American QE -- over there after numerous QEs, they got shitall nothing -- they got more unemployment, facing more economic pressure and are now facing recession, etc; while this part of the world, the "experience" is totally different -- they got inflation and there are still growth albeit much smaller -- what does that tell ya? Who cares? Who cares about the difference? All it matters is at this point the Chinese and the wider Asian markets are reacting positively and that potentially could translate into a new phase of growth, possibly within this region, which in my view is quite critical. Of course, all these could still come to nothing, let's not kid ourselves, but still I would like to test my own thesis, and that is whatever is happening in the western markets, no matter how much it influences the ASX, they are mostly short-termish and fluffy, a reflection of cheap money and liquidity movements and nothing else. If you like, it's traders vs traders, gamblers vs gamblers, money shifting around within a casino, it's all a game. While a Chinese market rebound would herald a much more sustained market rally as it reflects real money and real stimulus and the economic growth will be more encompassing and is not just about stock+derivative traders. If you like the Asian market rally is "more real" as a reflection and hope on more economic activities and it in turn would help lift the economic activities of this country... well, this my thesis and my hope any way. Call me a fool later when it doesn't pan out ok? ** back to the "real world" and back to the io miners and the big 3, here's a daily chart I posted not too long ago, and here's an update -- what do you reckon? How significant is the recent drop in price and the subsequent rebounds in all three? Within a 15 months timeline, do you reckon the bounce in price would signify a full recovery? Or just a short term recover? ** here's the same chart, but "zoomed" in to give a closer look at the individual candle sticks, what do you reckon? I think for RIO and BHP, the big "R"esistance line is still significant. Until the resistance is overcome, I would say any claim on io full recovery is less than convincing. As for FMG, it is a different kettle of fish altogether, mainly due to its own unique predicament. Based on chart, I would take its recent high volume (last 3 days) as a good thing. It has that look of a capitulation where the it seems to indicate the bears+sellers had exhausted their selling with the subsequent high volume rebound. If the bulls+buyers can maintain their momentum with more buying and close the gap, which is quite significant, it would make the case of a recovery more convincing. But the real test is where the big "S" line lies -- they need to push the price back up that line or face the wrath of the faithless and their selling and would go through another round of tussle, in the process building a base slowly...
  21. eb, FMG short? Don't take that seriously. On top of that I have money management, remember? I can never lose with this baby sitting by my side, gotta tell ya. In any case my bet the current FMG bounce will not last... yeah, call me pigheaded if you like. Also, I am keeping an open mind on all the miners since I don't have any position on any of them at all. I like this flexibility, which is fine in my way of thinking. Back to steel consumption, my attitude is still wait and see. One thing I am quite fixated on is simply this -- the consumption has peaked and will not be repeated. What remains is how much lower will it be moving forward. Cheers.
  22. eb, I reckon "imbecile" is the most abused word in this forum... From memory a few years ago when io price were still determined on a yearly contract basis, I think it was selling at around 60 per ton and went up slowly due to sudden demand spikes, could be wrong here since I didn't bother to keep any record on it, so correct me by all means. Since then, many projects and plenty of $$$ had been kicked into action, I wonder how many actually are beginning to come online, if not now probably soon -- the point is simply this -- the demand vs supply equation is so skewed with odds favouring an io price depression, who can really tell where the bottom is? Someone mentioned the Chinese production cost is at around 130 per ton (I think) and used that as a benchmark to conclude it would provide some kind of cap to the floor, but noticed how silly such view is? I reckon to the Chinese authority, keeping the people employed is a more important priority than just profit and loss, they probably don't give a hoot to market talk such as this and today I am seeing io price @ around 90 per ton. Logic is like a dog. Opinion is another dog, and everyone has at least these two dogs and every dog could have its day in the sun, one day, It may sound ridiculous for Andy to make such a claim but let's not forget what had happened to nickel, uranium and the claim on $400 crude claim... in a highly distorted market where real demand vs trading prices do not rhyme at all sometimes, the power of speculators can turn anything upside down if they wanted to as there's no one who can actually stop them due to the diverse nature of the global exchanges. I think I will chuck out Andy's price at this point but keep it in mind for just in case... as an interesting side track, I took a quick glance on BHP just now and here's something to share: Very very rough ballpark -- In 1983, BHP was selling @65c, 1990@4.50, 2000@10.00, 2012@32.00 -- can you see how long and far it has travelled? Can you accept this proposition? What goes up will/must come down sometimes? Esp when the sector is a well known cyclical one? Cheers.
  23. eb, FMG has a couple of strategic weakness as a company that makes it extremely vulnerable in a Chinese econ downturn... 1) it only sells a single product, which is good in a bull market, but very very bad in a bear market and right now the bear market is just starting, it will be a long road for it to trod and its survival frankly will be tested 2) to make it worse as a single product company, it has a single major customer, China, making it a total captured supplier that does not have much room to move, esp in demand dominant environment and where there are many competing suppliers who can sell their products at much cheaper price and at much bigger volume 3) the baddest of it all, it has taken a crazy expansion plan in a bull market by borrowing heavily and as a heavily indebted company when/where the cost of borrowing as well as availability of capital are becoming higher and scarcer by the day, the company is facing immense risk of potential cash flow shortfall and operating risks. It's no surprise at all to read about its project shelving, it won't be surprising at all next to read about its capital raising, and I definitely will not be surprised at all to read about it being put on the table for sale in due time. Just wait and see. (Today is a good day to sell this stock to get out for those who are caught frankly, but I doubt many will consider this option)
  24. eb, Your reaction is exactly what I was expecting! Try to see it this way -- Andy is providing his view on io pricing based on his own estimate, at this point, I don't think we can conclude he is a "definitive wrong" at this point; and for that matter, no one can claim to be 100% right either because of the many variables affecting io prices. It all boils down to choice here and due to our bias we tend to choose what we want to see or believe. My choice with this bit of info is wait and see as his view could be easily proven right or wrong in due time. Mean time, the charts on most of the io miners in ASX are supporting his view and that is, bad news thus far with potential for further drop. Cheers.
  25. The rise of the inflation nations... Andy Xie ** here's a caution if you are an io enthusiast... in any case, go read the whole thing for a more complete perspective of what he is talking about. Next, America's other 30%... SS.Roach ** make sense but it's gonna be tough for the USA to raise its competitiveness. It will take years, if not decades... and then there's this news to provide a sense of hopelessness. Or headache!?
  • Create New...