Repost from Silverchair on Hot Copter.
* Better than I thought, I forecast $30Mill Revenue and $15Mill Profit yesterday when comparing CUV very favourably to PNV. So to exceed these figures by a few percent is really good in the year of Coronavirus - the ability to generate profit and even a revenue increase (only 5%) in this environment with EU sales down a bit is strong stuff. The majority of companies out there did far, far worse. Cash up to $66Million and no Debt.
* Great to hear the commentary on US rollout and now 17 centres accredited. Very good and well ahead of schedule, keep it up.
* The really good stuff is the US sales. The Genie is out of the Bottle now and there is no putting it back - it will only grow from here and a LOT! To see nearly $1 Million dollars from US sales from maybe 2 centres for just over 2 months is the Key to it all. Take this as a baseline a rough extrapolation would be for this recurring revenue: 1Million (for 2 months) x 6 (yearly recurring) x 8.5 (17centres divided by 2) = $51 Million Revenue for yearly US sales! It won't be quite so simple because not everyone will get 6 implants and I was also a bit generous with the $1 Million but there will be more and more patients working their way through enrolment/insurance barriers plus more centres. I am very confident we can expect 50-100% revenue increases next year because Clinuvel look to be delivering well here. Next year revenue $50Million - $65 Million? IMO a yes and towards the higher end. That's what's it all about right there and that is what will drive the share price up as EPS will quickly increase on the back of that!
* Next biggie is China. Clinuvel talking about 5000 EPP patients there - Wow! This one is a partnership but shouldn't be underestimated as this was a market not on anyone's radar or forecasting a few months back and that is some serious revenue growth out of left field we hope. Well maybe not too much to hope for because the drug is safe and it works and it changes patients lives so I'm optimistic here with China.
* As expected they drove the price down, I had a quick look through the day's trades and it appears lots of the usual shorting manipulations were in play. I note the VWAP for the day was $22.65 -50c above the closing price. As usual the micro trades all pushing down do the damage in the face of not too much buying activity. The good thing is no one is really selling, it's just low volume churn and not sure why ASIC allows it. From memory they did the same thing on the day of the Chinese collaboration announcement but it took a lot more volume then.
* Shorts main weapon now is to drive FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and they have to send the price down on good news because if it gathers momentum they are screwed. They have a massive amount to cover and they seem to be the main sellers in the market. Why would anyone sell now if not needing money when the growth is here with US sales? The shorters shorted pre FDA approval and got it wrong, retail should not sell early to them and let them escape. The clock is ticking for shorts, pushing price down is easy but buying back 8% of fakes shares is harder.
* I have demonstrated how CUV compares very favourably on financials to most other companies out there in this space. eg PNV, AVH, NAN, PME, COH and NEA to name a few, so to continue shorting at these prices is just to keep the price in check because with the growth to come it is going to start to look really obvious soon how undervalued Clinuvel is IMO. If they can short the price down for a few more years soon the company will have as much cash as market cap haha.
* Basically, shorting this company to this extent does not make sense. If it's not for a takeover they simply have it wrong, it's already cheaply priced and the risk is quite low for CUV investors who have any sort of timeframe more than 18 months. The company could in reality destroy them at any time using cash for a share buyback or some concerted buying by the leadership team. The Chairman is a Very rich and successful business leader who could increase his (large) holding and single handedly wipe out the short sellers. It would be like swatting flies for him and profitable too.
Happy to Buy more at these prices, downside very limited. Growth and EPS growth inevitable IMO so price should rise and shorts reduce (squeeze hopefully) as these come to hand. Big announcements will be great, this company is about a Lot more than EPP and I believe they will execute. There is a Large vested interest here from the management team, they are very significant owners of the company. GLTAH
All IMO and DYOR.