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Everything posted by Kronos

  1. Rufous They're only copycats if they can produce an equivalent purity of "pine needle extract". With a supply ability of 2 tonnes per month??? The expensive SibeX megafab certainly cannot compete! Chiller It matters not what the company officially releases to market, talk has always been cheap at Solagran. Until that changes, same old, same old. Fire off an email to Artlife detailing your interest for Hepato..the response may surprise you. Getting information from sources other than the company is the point i'm trying to make. Back in August of this year Solamind underwent a distribution of sorts affecting it share structure. Soultanov now controls in excess of 80% from a previously held 15%, as a result, the member count dropped from 16 to a paltry 4. This could be seen as a defensive move to contain liability to fewer members, given the ongoing litigation. Nonetheless, court orders should be out shortly in the Gun Capital Management VS Solamind/Solagran/Soultanov trial. I believe this to be the finale to litigation. If it's a favourable outcome for Soultanov he'll be talking the talk come director re-election time. I'll wager both testicles on it. Right Kanga? Buona fortuna shareholders
  2. Kronos


    i've used a fixed position size model ($) for both the portfolio level and individual backtest. I could possibly run another simulation with $300k starting capital(just on AGO) and use a fractional % postion size, in this case 100% less brokerage which would take into consideration the losses to starting capital and remain fully invested. Would then need to pyramid profits(add to available capital) for any successful trades.(couldn't be bothered) I understand the comparison being made, what threw me was reference to you designing this system for a relative!! When i initially commented on the AGO return of $30k on $100K, suggesting a 30% return for the period. This is not quite accurate since approx. 10% of the available trading capital was used in the simulation its more like 200% return on AGO. I'm in total agreement that buy'n'hold lacks risk management. Buy'n'hold was/is great for the government supported ponzi scheme(superannuation) ? but that is another debate altogether. Bonne Chance to AGO holders
  3. Kronos


    Mista, statistically speaking the system you have described will ultimately fail more often than not. Given your entry and exit criteria with the addition of a simple turnover filter(median price x volume > $500,000) the monte carlo analysis results follow; Simulation run on the ASX -3 Letter Codes Only - between 01/07/2002 - 30/06/2012 Starting capital $100k Brokerage each way $20 Fixed position sized model set at $9960 Simulation Stats Number of trade simulations: 20000 Trades processed per simulation: 22805 Maximum Number of Trades Executed: 857 Average Number of Trades Executed: 711 Minimum Number of Trades Executed: 287 Standard Deviation: 91.61 Profit Stats Maximum Profit: $653,465.81 (653.47%) Average Profit: -$11,063.96 (-11.06%) Minimum Profit: -$95,400.63 (-95.40%) Standard Deviation: $67,798.28 (67.80%) Probability of Profit: 31.70% Probability of Loss: 68.30% Percent Winning Trade Stats Maximum percentage of winning trades: 38.65% Average percentage of winning trades: 32.65% Minimum percentage of winning trades: 26.65% Standard Deviation: 1.44% Percent Losing Trade Stats Maximum percentage of losing trades: 73.35% Average percentage of losing Trades: 67.35% Minimum percentage of losing trades: 61.35% Standard Deviation: 1.44% Average Relative Dollar Drawdown Stats Maximum of the Average Relative Dollar Drawdown: $5,998.72 Average of the Average Relative Dollar Drawdown: $2,860.67 Minimum of the Average Relative Dollar Drawdown: $1,573.12 Standard Deviation: $415.37 Maximum Relative Dollar Drawdown Stats Maximum of the Maximum Relative Dollar Drawdown: $92,156.52 Average of the Maximum Relative Dollar Drawdown: $37,624.86 Minimum of the Maximum Relative Dollar Drawdown: $9,519.20 Standard Deviation: $10,165.98 Average Relative Percent Drawdown Stats Maximum of the Average Relative Percent Drawdown: 5.8846% Average of the Average Relative Percent Drawdown: 2.4984% Minimum of the Average Relative Percent Drawdown: 0.9649% Standard Deviation: 0.6385% Graph to put into perspective When run just on AGO for the test period and parameters previously specified your system yields a profit of $30K on $100K with a win rate of 45%
  4. Under Solagran's constitution directors are required to retire from office on a 2 year rotational basis. Normally the AGM is used to pass Resolutions on the agenda. One of these resolutions is the re-election of directors who have retired themselves on the aforementioned rotation. Without question, there will be a general meeting convened this year.
  5. Or be continually amazed with ruthless attempts(most likely successful) to play the emotional despair of shareholders. Barely a pulse of liquidity and personal contempt the foundation.
  6. Or... d) Soultanov is sending an unequivocal FU message to the Solagran Sharescene community as a reaction to the somewhat repetitive, damning commentary. Given that position, I'd certainly endeavour to legally lockup trading in the company's securities too.
  7. Its my understanding to be calendar days. Also, there are some dual lodgment reliefs for ASX listed companies. For example, Solagran could have already lodged the half yearly with the ASX within the Corporations Act 75 day deadline. Therefore would not have commited an offence of strict liability. Yes that my sinister plan, though I despise squire Soultanov far too much to take any position whether its up, down or sideways. With the assistance of the tenacious poodle you may well get your fill sub 2c, dont forget to pat its fluffy little head.
  8. umm "...75 days after the end of the half-year." You're not a bunch i would like on my share registry ..
  9. why wait..... CORPORATIONS ACT 2001 - SECT 320 Lodgement of half-year reports with ASIC (1) A disclosing entity that has to prepare or obtain a report for a half-year under Division 2 must lodge the report with ASIC within 75 days after the end of the half-year. (2) An offence based on subsection (1) is an offence of strict liability. Note: For strict liability , see section 6.1 of the Criminal Code . Precisely Tocs!
  10. So you would like to dance the dance of words. Ok AND Speculation, congratulations! Great for some but apparently not so for others. Who knows, who cares. I have used the word fictitious for those which are not devoid of contextualising an adjective in a sentence. For your clarity, what you do question is the veracity of the information presented to the market. As for omissions in the details of this information well that's a candidate forrrrrr..... expectations! missed,hit,who gives a s$#t. No you cannot have the last word today ..I simply will not allow it. Oh lovely another megalomaniac Pure textual facetious gold. Put up or zip it up? Thanks for the amusement chaps
  11. You're the last person in any position to police speculation. Your past comments have all been based on the implication that Solagran has in some shape, way or form relayed fictitious information to the market. Though today you're clearly siding on their honest representations. Without question, absolutely laughable. Enjoy your day "bro".
  12. Kronos


    Little tip? Adjust your chart axes to reflect an equal X Y ratio. Speaks Volumes! Given i'm uncertain of your definition for accumulation, there appears to be no case for it. Quarter over quarter for the past 6 months a daily 60day simple MA of volume will reveal nothing tangible. Monthly timeframe, volume has increased -price decreased. As for the "psychological $1" area please edit your signature if you're prepared to perpetrating a sacred truth . Same could be said for gaps or even a bounce off a long term 50% fibonacci retracement. Perhaps GRY has the potential to bounce off the long term 61.8% Fib retracement .. circa 85 cents. hmm...
  13. Simple question for you.. would like a simple answer. Whats your buy price?
  14. Or possibly they are using this convenient suspension in trading while negotiating in the UAE for a “potential collaboration with and/or investment in the Companyâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ. The timing appears far too intentional to me.
  15. Solagran providing the bioeffectives. Artlife providing the marketing via a 500,000 member network along with a GMP facility. Somewhat measurable / assessable revenue added in the June 2012 quarter from 5(upto) products. Diana, NO no no Artlife does not provide supplemental bioeffective manufacturing capabilities to which you imply. Artlife with a GMP facility will do nothing more than create finished form product.
  16. It appears you're falling victim to an innate ability of misinformation. With regard to the $2.9M debt facility - $300K drawn down, $1.5M requested before the end of Dec 2011. Solagran via SibeX had a $1.5M bank overdraft facility/line of credit in place which required to be i think it reasonable to assume that $1.1M is the result of renegotiations - next quarterly may clarify that for you, "bro". Total proceeds from borrowings for the Dec 2011 Quarter $1.136M, Clear enough for you, "bro"? Seriously, imo Solagran have zero cred left to damage yet you persist with targeted innuendo. Theres method to the madness eh bro? As of June 2011 other fully drawn down borrowings of around $3.1M provided by Solamind - Unsecured loan, zero interest, repayable on demand. Yes, Solamind quite alive and to date no registered changes in members holdings. As for the asian poultry feedstock.............walk the talk!
  17. Medical authorities have regulations governing DTC / DTCA (Direct To Consumer / Advertising) of PRESCRIPTION drugs. In Australia and the vast majority of countries around the world it is prohibited, with the exception of the US and NZ. The re-registration of Ropren provides a clear distinction. As a NON PRESCRIPTION medicine it bypasses any potential legality related to DTC etc. I don’t quite understand the resistance to internet sales. An academics pursuit of prestige has already crippled Solagran. So, is it a pricing of Ropren consideration? Do you undercut the Russian market? I guess the answer to these questions lays firmly in the profitability of Ropren. What does it cost to manufacture? According to Solagran, Page 5 ASX announcement dated 11/02/2005 1 tonne of raw material yields 0.6 -1.0 kg of Bioeffective R – Ropren 1 tonne of raw material yields 40-60kg of Bioeffective A – BioA Since 2005 Solagran have increased the efficiency of the extraction process so these numbers may well be conservative in 2011. I’m sure the savvy out there can extrapolate a reasonable cost of Ropren. You up for task?
  18. Seriously I cannot believe you guys have missed the relevance of the most significant news presented to you for quite some time. ROPREN RE-REGISTRATION That’s right forget Russia and its local medical establishments, forget its prescription based dispensing, forget Russia's low personal income. Re-registration as a NON-PRESCRIPTION " drug /natural product" opens the door to the world via internet sales. You, I and anyone with an interest would be in a position to purchase a limited supply which currently stands at a 3 month personal supply in Australia. Other countries have similar regulations in place. Ask yourself a few plausible questions. Does Solagran have the facilities in place to conduct these transactions? Can Solagran afford the paltry sum required to establish a slick ecommerce website? Yes Ropren is "comparatively" expensive but can intelligent marketing to target a specific demographic prove fruitful? References; for the generally ill-informed - pointing the finger at the poodle http://www.tga.gov.au/consumers/personal-i...tion-scheme.htm http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1994/3144/contents/made -- see Schedule 1 item 4 (3) © http://www.fda.gov/AboutFDA/CentersOffices...R/ucm082690.htm --See item 9
  19. In reply to: 29101971 on Thursday 12/06/08 11:27pm Its my view that Solamind's predicament is inconsequential to Solagran's future, going forward a couple of years. As Solagran purportedly makes the transition from R&D to "cash cow" goliath(terms used loosely) with regard to Ropren,prioritizing, a shift in focus should be paramount, with research and development(solaminds field) fondling the back seat. Though this argument would be heavily debated by Squire Soultanov given his presentation at the EGM. What Solagran has in place; Full pharmaceutical registration etc A manufacturing plant producing Bioeffective R An agreement/relationship with Russian based pharma to produce Ropren. Marketing team 9 Hospitals in queue for initial shipment. All this should translate to cash flow,NOW, and with that an effective means to finance expanison in terms of manufacturing capabilities and latter R&D. The loose information presented to date sees SLA supply constrained with each plant only producing one line of Bioeffective, ie its either BioA BioR etc but not concurrently. SLA must be at least 5+ years away from bringing another Bio to market. So R&D-Solamind, inconsequential, for the moment, you bet!! 2 masters are presently being served when only Solagran(the parent)the publicly listed company which has financed operations to date should be served. But hey, on this,we can dance in cricles ,blow off steam all day long. id like to pose a question and forget the OP saga ever occurred. Do you believe Solagran would be devastatingly absent with news going into June,given their ERS incentive? For the record my Vote is a resounding NO
  20. Top20 shareholder lists are produced every month irrespective of present circumstances. ComputerShare will forward your request for Top20 lists to SLA, only after SLA management respond will you be able to acquire these lists, for a price of course. You may find Top20's between July07 - Dec07 interesting. Also,with management ridiculously quiet, SLA at a perceived risk of manipulating share price to gain a low foundation for their Executive Reward Scheme.
  21. In reply to: Ian on Friday 16/05/08 01:56pm Beautifully articulated Ian, finally a poster with sound rationale and logic. :thumbup:
  22. In reply to: jezzabot on Friday 16/05/08 01:27pm I didn't realise critiquing your illustrious leaders was so unfashionable, but you're always intimidated by such events as it tends to interfere with your philosophy of targeting new investors. i can see the protest strip now, colourful banners reading "DONT KNOCK OUR STOCK, DONT KNOCK OUR STOCK"
  23. In reply to: diana on Friday 16/05/08 01:12pm Yes a distinct case of the runs. Paltry revenue from 2 established products?
  24. Talk is cheap gentlemen. Meanwhile Squire Kilroy is struggling to walk the talk
  25. In reply to: chiller on Friday 16/05/08 12:32am You can dispense with the presumption that reply was for my benefit. It appears YOU have finally unleashed your load.. Feeling better..viva la self righteous! thank you for the laugh
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