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vegemite

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  1. Some books I've borrowed from the Library and particularly enjoyed. 1) How to live : or, A life of Montaigne in one question and twenty attempts at an answer, 2011 Heard the author interviewed on a Radio National podcast and enjoyed the book greatly "How to get on well with people, how to deal with violence, how to adjust to losing someone you love? How to live? This question obsessed Renaissance nobleman Michel Eyquem de Montaigne (1533-92), who wrote free-roaming explorations of his thought and experience, unlike anything written before. This first full biography of Montaigne in English for nearly fifty years relates the story of his life by way of the questions he posed and the answers he explored." 2) Confession of a Buddhist atheist, 2011 Another book read sparked by an RN podcast. Very interesting if you have any interest in buddhism "Charting his journey from hippie to monk to lay practitioner, teacher, and interpreter of Buddhist thought, Stephen Batchelor reconstructs the historical Buddha's life, locating him within the social and political context of his world. In examining the ancient texts of the Pali Canon, the earliest record of the Buddha's life and teachings, Batchelor argues that the Buddha was a man who looked at human life in a radically new way for his time, more interested in the question of how human beings should live in this world than in notions of karma and the afterlife." 3) Romulus, my father 4) Cannery road, John Steinbeck. A favourite book mentioned by someone on the radio and I can see why 5) The swerve : how the Renaissance began A nice mix of history, mystery, religion, philosophy "Nearly six hundred years ago, a short, genial, cannily alert man in his late 30s took a very old manuscript off a library shelf, saw with excitement what he had discovered, and ordered that it be copied. The book was the last surviving manuscript of an ancient Roman philosophical epic. This title tells the story of this discovery." Anyone else have some favourite reads to share? V
  2. Hi DG/Alkimos/Gum Nut/Wasa et al, I have a scenario in my mind - one that I don't really like - but it is there so wonder what your thoughts about it are. Wade et al wait for African Petroleum to drill their adjacent block. If successful then they can extract much more from the Senegal blocks . If unsuccessful then they let FAR have it for the $5 million. Perhaps a big paranoid but when you consider how long it has taken so far to get the decree and some of the stories about Wade that you read it does not seem totally implausible, Thanks, Rob
  3. Also posted this over at HC In the Pure Speculation column "Dave Wall at Hartleys describes it as probably the most significant well involving an ASX-listed junior oil and gas company this year. He is referring to the Kora project offshore of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. Kora is a 448 million barrel prospect in which FAR (FAR) has an 8.8 per cent interest. Wall says that, if this prospect were to be a success, then FAR's potential income is around $1 billion" http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/o...x-1226086733465
  4. Hi Wasa, Peter Strachan in a recent StockAnalysis issue suggests that GB has a risked value of about 1.6 cents (11% chances of success and 16 cents value per share if there is a discovery). His base case is 3.1 cents for cash and production so if Kora was a duster and Senegal fell over - almost worst case scenario - then by his reckoning shares would be worth about 5 cents. So GB is something to fall back onto but not that much (unless it comes through) - Senegal and Kora are the big ones (his discovery value per share in both cases is 67 and 44 cents respectively). Note that he is always pretty conservative in his chance of success estimations (has Kora at only 35%) so perhaps things a little bit better with GB than the 1.6 cents suggest? re the great Gum nut gusher - I hope we all get to enjoy a similar dream ! Cheers, V
  5. Thanks Gum Nut, Very interesting. There are a couple of more recent articles by Hesthammer but unfortunately they require payment/subscription. CSEM performance in light of well results (Jan 2010) http://tle.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/29/1/34 CSEM performance in light of well results (March 2011) http://208.88.129.54/March-2011-Value-crea...ic-imaging.aspx With regard to the the 2011 Rocksource presentation (number 3 in your list), I find the graph on page 15 interesting where the success rate is given as 70% when there is a strong EM response (as is the case with Kora as stated on page 20) Also quite interesting is page 39 (True and false positives). I'm not sure that I quite understand it all but it seems to suggest that they have given quite conservative chances of success • The Rocksource portfolio contains 20 prospects with EM anomalies • Rocksource general place a COS of c. 50-60% on the prospects • Despite having done considerably more work on our individual datasets, suggesting that our estimates are conservative So I'm happy to accept the 50+% CoS given but am secretly hopeful that they might actually estimate it substantially higher than this, Cheers, V
  6. vegemite

    TSV

    This is from the 22nd September edition of the excellent StockAnalysis newsletter. From my own calculations the options (QPNO and TNPO) offer approximately 40 fold leverage against the roughly 15 fold leverage for QPN and TNP so personally I've picked up some QPNO. The attraction of the more conservative TSV purchase is that as Peter says the share price is underpinned by Warro so won't entirely crash and burn in the case of a duster... Transerv Strikes a Deal on Gulf Coast TSV, QPN, TNP Recommendation: Transerv’s current share price is underpinned by an ongoing 10% interest in tight gas development at Warro, where Alcoa is funding field evaluation. Participation in the Amazon prospect holds speculative appeal. Success would underpin ongoing cash requirements and would add significantly to its assessed value. During a hiatus in drilling activity at its 10% held Warro tight gas field in the Perth Basin, Transerv has used its corporate connections with Quest Petroleum, combined with a flow of new equity funds from the exercise of options, to take a 5% interest in the drilling of two, relatively moderate risk prospects on the Louisiana Gulf Coast to be drilled over the next 6 months. The larger Amazon prospect is expected to spud in October and is likely to take six weeks to drill to a total depth of 4,880 metres, testing several thick horizons of over-pressured sediments within an interpreted tilted fault block structure where strong seismic AVO anomalism supports a case for discovery of gas at depth. Amazon is estimated to be capable of holding 45 mmbbls of oil/condensate plus 450 Bcf of gas if hydrocarbons are present and discovery at this level would be worth 9 cps to Transerv for its 5% interest, while Quest would see a 20 cps uplift for its retained 15% and Tango would also have strong leverage of $1.81 per share for its 17.5% in the project. The smaller Thames structure is situated on the flank of a salt feature and shows multiple layers of targets, again with seismic AVO anomalism supporting the case for drilling. The Amazon wildcat is budgeted to cost US$8.2 million and TSV will be paying for 9% to earn its 5% equity. Partners give Amazon a 35% probability of success, which makes it moderate risk. All ASX listed partners here have strong leverage to success on these relatively large targets. Key risks include the normal exploration type of risks and also an engineering risk, associated with drilling in highly over-pressured sediments. Transerv has taken the stance that this is an achievable target and while there is no current need to spend funds on Warro, this opportunity is worth the risk and if successful could underpin the establishment of a sustaining cash flow to Transerv, which would reduce the need for ongoing new equity issues. Others along the Gulf Coast, including Strike Energy, Golden Gate Resources and Grand Gulf have largely not met expectations from well-formulated, good looking prospects, which failed to deliver, so caution is always necessary in such speculative ventures. TSV - Capital Structure Shares 882.4 m. Options 87.5 m. Total 969.9 m. Price 0.013 $ Market Cap 11.5 $ m. Cash (est) 2.0 $ m. Well oil gas Risk NPV NPV Cost mmbbls Bcf % $m oil gas /BOE US$ Amazon 45 450 20% 1755 22 1.7 14.6 $ 8.0 $ Thames 6 57 20% 223 22 1.6 14.4 $ 5.0 $ Source: Strachan Corporate Permits TSV QPN TNP Amazon 5% 15% 17.5% Thames 5% 15% 17.5% Discovery Value/share $ TSV QPN TNP Amazon 0.09 0.20 1.81 Thames 0.01 0.03 0.23 Risk Adjusted Value/Share 0.019 $ 0.042$ 0.38 $ Leverage/share TSV QPN TNP Amazon 646% 1647% 1390% Thames 82% 210% 177% Combined 728% 1857% 1566% Source: Strachan Corporate
  7. vegemite

    QPN

    This is from the 22nd September edition of the excellent StockAnalysis newsletter. From my own calculations the options (QPNO and TNPO) offer approximately 40 fold leverage against the roughly 15 fold leverage for QPN and TNP so personally I've picked up some QPNO. The attraction of the more conservative TSV purchase is that as Peter says the share price is underpinned by Warro so won't entirely crash and burn in the case of a duster... Transerv Strikes a Deal on Gulf Coast TSV, QPN, TNP Recommendation: Transerv’s current share price is underpinned by an ongoing 10% interest in tight gas development at Warro, where Alcoa is funding field evaluation. Participation in the Amazon prospect holds speculative appeal. Success would underpin ongoing cash requirements and would add significantly to its assessed value. During a hiatus in drilling activity at its 10% held Warro tight gas field in the Perth Basin, Transerv has used its corporate connections with Quest Petroleum, combined with a flow of new equity funds from the exercise of options, to take a 5% interest in the drilling of two, relatively moderate risk prospects on the Louisiana Gulf Coast to be drilled over the next 6 months. The larger Amazon prospect is expected to spud in October and is likely to take six weeks to drill to a total depth of 4,880 metres, testing several thick horizons of over-pressured sediments within an interpreted tilted fault block structure where strong seismic AVO anomalism supports a case for discovery of gas at depth. Amazon is estimated to be capable of holding 45 mmbbls of oil/condensate plus 450 Bcf of gas if hydrocarbons are present and discovery at this level would be worth 9 cps to Transerv for its 5% interest, while Quest would see a 20 cps uplift for its retained 15% and Tango would also have strong leverage of $1.81 per share for its 17.5% in the project. The smaller Thames structure is situated on the flank of a salt feature and shows multiple layers of targets, again with seismic AVO anomalism supporting the case for drilling. The Amazon wildcat is budgeted to cost US$8.2 million and TSV will be paying for 9% to earn its 5% equity. Partners give Amazon a 35% probability of success, which makes it moderate risk. All ASX listed partners here have strong leverage to success on these relatively large targets. Key risks include the normal exploration type of risks and also an engineering risk, associated with drilling in highly over-pressured sediments. Transerv has taken the stance that this is an achievable target and while there is no current need to spend funds on Warro, this opportunity is worth the risk and if successful could underpin the establishment of a sustaining cash flow to Transerv, which would reduce the need for ongoing new equity issues. Others along the Gulf Coast, including Strike Energy, Golden Gate Resources and Grand Gulf have largely not met expectations from well-formulated, good looking prospects, which failed to deliver, so caution is always necessary in such speculative ventures. TSV - Capital Structure Shares 882.4 m. Options 87.5 m. Total 969.9 m. Price 0.013 $ Market Cap 11.5 $ m. Cash (est) 2.0 $ m. Well oil gas Risk NPV NPV Cost mmbbls Bcf % $m oil gas /BOE US$ Amazon 45 450 20% 1755 22 1.7 14.6 $ 8.0 $ Thames 6 57 20% 223 22 1.6 14.4 $ 5.0 $ Source: Strachan Corporate Permits TSV QPN TNP Amazon 5% 15% 17.5% Thames 5% 15% 17.5% Discovery Value/share $ TSV QPN TNP Amazon 0.09 0.20 1.81 Thames 0.01 0.03 0.23 Risk Adjusted Value/Share 0.019 $ 0.042$ 0.38 $ Leverage/share TSV QPN TNP Amazon 646% 1647% 1390% Thames 82% 210% 177% Combined 728% 1857% 1566% Source: Strachan Corporate
  8. hi wasa, that should have been 8/9/10 ta, v
  9. 9/10/11 and not the foggiest who the JV partner might be cheers, v
  10. vegemite

    RRS

    "Independent PW10 DCF valuation of Range’s net interest of US$226m" so $AUD 250 million compared to a market cap of approx 60 million for RRS.
  11. "try this site : http://www.bookdepository.co.uk. its free shipping worldwide" I've used book depository a few times and they are very good. If you use the useful Australian book price comparison site www.booko.com.au then they will often come out on top, Cheers V
  12. Hi Duster, From the latest Hartleys report: The 20 million figure includes US$6.5m in payments expected in CY09 (Shell payment and China sale proceeds) And looking at the recent FAR presentation (Sep) they state they have 13 million on hand which includes Shells 3.5 million but excludes staged payments of $AUD 8.5 million for china assets. If that is all accurate then that equates to about 2.7 cents/share Cheers, V
  13. http://www.sharescene.com/style_images/ip.boardpr/spacer.gif "Thanks for this thread. I am an avid reader and am always looking for new reads. I still own every book that I have ever read - I never sell or dispose of a book - it's my weakness" I can't resist buying second hand Library books (my weakness). However I run a medical library and can put surplus books into a non-clinical area I've set up. "The philosopher and the wolf" is something a bit different and worth seeking out. Currently reading "Jeff in Venice, Death in Varanasi" and so far quite engaging. "You and your money brain" throws up lots of interesting things (e.g. chickens perform better than humans in a particular type of intelligence test to do with patterns versus randomness) and quite possibly could help with humility in investment decisions, Cheers, V
  14. "Yes MacD, if that money had not come in from Zinifex then OXR would have folded, only a lot faster - and I mean really folded! Why is this not more widely appreciated?" I may have this wrong (it became such a complex story) but my understanding of it was as follows: The decision by OXR to merge with ZFX meant that the Oxiana debt, which had been due in 2012 was rolled over as part of the deal to become payable in the current year (2008). This is why the apparently out of the blue financial problems took so many OXR holders by surprise, and in combination with the GFC, led to the rather sorry position that has resulted. To my mind this was by far and away the fatal flaw with the merger decision (from an OXR perspective. For ZFX I think they wouldn't have survived at all). Without it, Oxiana would have been able to make appropriate adjustments for the financial crisis (they had two solid operating assets, and other assets that could have been disposed of if required) and have plenty of time to deal with the 2012 debts given Sepon, Golden Grove, Prominent Hill etc being fully operational by then. And they would have arrived at that place pretty much as the complete OX rather than the hollowed out shell they are now. Anyway as I say I might have that all wrong, and in any case it is really only of historical interest now. OZ now needs to be judged on its current merits etc Cheers, V
  15. June 04, 2009 Kingsgate Is Back On Track With Its Thai Gold Projects, And Australian Brokers Are Struggling To Keep Up By Our Man in Oz “Kingsgate is back to its cash cow phase.†For patient shareholders in this Australian-listed gold miner, already familiar with the story of the company’s assets in Thailand, those eight words say it all. They also explain why the company’s share price “went vertical†late last year. From a lowly A$2.20 in late October Kingsgate Consolidated rocketed up to a recent high on Wednesday 3rd June of A$6.93, a price which is not just a 12-month high, it is an all-time high. Driving Kingsgate is a combination of restored gold production, low costs, fresh discoveries, expansion plans, and the chief executive behind those eight little words, Gavin Thomas. In the many years that Minesite’s Man in Oz has chatted with Thomas he has never encountered so much optimism about the future. This now includes a thinly-veiled criticism that some stockbrokers are missing the change which has occurred at Kingsgate over the past six months. A particular complaint is a “50 per cent discount†some brokers have been applying to the stock because of its focus on the sometimes politically volatile Thai climate. “That really is a nonsense,†Thomas said. “It just underlines the point that some analysts are missing our latest achievements.†He’s right, and it took just 72 hours to discover how right. Morning coffee on Monday was the time when Minesite met Kingsgate in its Martin Place office in central Sydney. As the conversation got underway Kingsgate was trading around A$6.10, and Thomas was pointing out comments such as those in a Macquarie Bank research report which read in part that “the market†was concerned that Kingsgate might not be able to unlock full value for any proposed float on the Thai stock exchange and that the company “appears to be discounted by as much as 50 per cent accordingly.†That observation drew an appropriate “harrumph†from Thomas, who then pointed out what the brokers were not seeing, or were preferring to not see, in case they broke ranks and swam against the comfort of peer consensus. “Some of them say we’ll need to raise equity for the expansion, but that really means they’re not looking at the cash flowâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ, Thomas said. Perhaps someone was listening at the window because by mid-Wednesday the stock hit its all-time high of A$6.93, before easing back to close at A$6.80. Whatever the cause of the sharp share price rise, the fact is that Kingsgate has been re-discovered, and the reasons behind the revival are worth a closer look, especially as the last time Minesite paid close attention to the company was at the height of last year’s market wobbles, and after gold production at the company’s flagship Chatree mine had slowed to a trickle. The cause of the reduced output, which hit rock bottom when just 4,203 ounces of gold were produced in the September quarter at a loss-making US$1,499 an ounce, was a painful government approvals process which was essential before Chatree could expand into a new mining zone. The same approval delay has interrupted exploration, as well as plans to more than double the size of the mine from its current rated capacity of 150,000 ounces a year. Resolution of the approvals logjam was the first, and most important factor, in the re-discovery of Kingsgate. Ever the diplomat, Thomas declines to speak ill of the process, simply describing it as part of the way in which business is done in the region. A quick skip over the tortuous rubber-stamping process is important for two reasons. Most of it is a typical boring exercise in government red tape. Far worse can be encountered in Australia and Canada. Once you look beyond the approvals process a glimpse of “future Kingsgate†can be seen, and it starts with the fact that Chatree is on track to hit and probably exceed its target of 150,000 ounces at a cash cost of less than US$350/oz in calendar 2009. More gold (at a lower cost) means Kingsgate’s bank balance is swelling nicely. So nicely that Thomas is even encouraged to use the “dâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ-word so loved by investors, dividend. “It’s something we’re looking at,†is the encouraging comment. Little wonder. Cash flows from Chatree are entering a period when they might service both a dividend and the estimated US$100 million needed to double the size of Chatree, from its current annual ore throughput rate of 2.4 million tonnes to five million tonnes. Macquarie, despite signing up to the collective broking fraternity view of a 50 per cent Thai discount, actually got the right answer to the cash flow question (but gave the wrong answer to tipping Kingsgate’s future share price). In its May 21 note to clients after a Chatree site visit Macquarie forecast Kingsgate cash flow for the 12-months to June 30 at A$46.7 million, rising to A$105.7 million next year, and then up to US$162.6 million, by which time the broker reckons the stock will be paying a dividend of A30 cents a share and trading on a price-earnings ratio of just 4.6. If those are the broker’s own numbers how on earth could it then suggest a 12-month share price target of A$6.00, a mere A16 cents above the price on the day the report was written. The shares went through that target the following day, May 22. Thomas declines to criticise the brokers and their reticence. Minesite’s Man in Oz is more than happy to do the job for him because not only has Kingsgate climbed out of a hole marked “government approvals processâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ, but it has restored Chatree, and is now steaming ahead rapidly with its long-delayed expansion plans. But wait, as those dreadful American kitchen appliance advertisements screech out on television, there’s more! None of the valuations take into account the expanding resource base in the pits which make up Chatree, with deeper drilling pointing to a substantial increase in the resource base, plus the potential for the new Chokdee prospect being as big, if not bigger, than Chatree. Rock chip samples at Chockdee have assayed at up to 1,030 grams a tonne and drill hits have returned encouraging grades such as 13 metres at 2.91 grams a tonne and two metres at 21.9 grams a tonne. Soil chemistry is even more interesting with the Chokdee outline bearing a remarkable resemblance to Chatree, but on a bigger scale. Much more work is required at the discovery zone, and Kingsgate will undoubtedly concentrate on completing its long-delayed expansion. But, as the existing operation doubles in size there is the blue-sky appeal of a lookalike development – and none of that is being factored into the latest broker valuations of the stock, which were out of date within days.
  16. vegemite

    Gold

    Something a bit unusual from today's Australian.. Another report overnight that feeds into this trend concerns a company based in Frankfurt with a rather novel idea. Reuters says that TG-Gold-Super-Markt is planning to install 500 automatic teller machines across Germany, Switzerland and Austria that will spit out, not euro notes, but pieces of gold. Put €31 (at yesterday’s price) in the slot, and you can withdraw one tiny, 1 gram piece of gold. Each ATM, the first of which was on display at Frankfurt’s main railway station, will hold 1g, 5g and 10g gold pieces as well as Krugerrand coins. The ATMs will be able to vary the price of the gold in line with the changing gold spot figure. V
  17. March 24, 2009 Alkane Resources Shows Every Sign Of Re-Awakening After A Bit Of A Snooze And A Few False Starts By Our Man in Oz All investors like to think they can double their money in little more than a year. With Alkane Resources, a small Australian exploration-focused company, they have a better than average chance, especially if plans to re-start gold production next year run to schedule. High gold prices, and a low Aussie dollar, have added significantly to the profit margin available at Alkane’s “revival project†at Tomingley in western New South Wales. At the current Australian gold price of A$1350 an ounce Alkane’s margin is close to A$800/oz, turning the relatively small 60,000-to-70,000 ounce-a-year open pit development planned for Tomingley into a cash cow spinning off up to A$56 million a year, and delivering a capital cost payback in less than 12-months. For long-term followers of Alkane there is more riding on Tomingley than the start of a new mine. Not only will it be the first gold production since the company mothballed its one-time flagship mine at Peak Hill, 12 kilometres to the south in 2005, but it will set-up Alkane for something much bigger in the future. That could come from more gold via what appears to be a world-class discovery in association with the big U.S. goldminer, Newmont, or in the production of a cocktail of zirconia and other metals from its nearby Dubbo polymetallic project. Either way, Alkane is a company showing every sign of re-awakening after a bit of a snooze, and a few false starts. Tomingley, the project likely to replenish Alkane’s bank account, is in the final stages of a definitive feasibility study which is expected to be wrapped up by July. Detailed plant design is underway with the project likely to be a “plain vanilla†carbon-in-leach operation processing around one million tonnes of ore a year for the recovery of between 60,000-and-70,000 ounces of gold at a cash cost of A$550/oz. It helps that the mine is located in well-established farming country with grid power, highways, water and a willing workforce on the doorstep. If there is a criticism of Tomingley it’s the time taken to get to the launch pad. “We have had a few delays along the way,†said Alkane managing director, Ian Chalmers, when Minesite’s Man in Oz called for a chat last week. “But, we’re well within sight of completing the definitive feasibility study. Mine planning and scheduling is underway, along with detailed plant design. Land access issues, water supply and power supply are in hand. On the current schedule we will be lodging a complete environmental assessment and development application by mid-year, investigate financing options and make a development decision in the third quarter, with first production in the third quarter of 2010.†Financing will not be an obstacle to Alkane making its return as a producer. Investment banks are kicking doors down in Australia in their hunt for emerging goldminers. “It’s not a big issue,†Chalmers said, and neither should i be even if the Australian gold price contracts sharply. In examples Chalmers has used in presentations two lower gold price assumptions are used. At A$1150/oz Tomingley’s annual operating margin is A$42 million. At A$950/oz the margin falls to A$28 million – or a capital cost payback in two years rather than one year as it now stands. More interesting is the conversion of those margins into theoretical value per share to Alkane, a stock which last traded at A21.5 cents. At the lowest margin assumption based on a gold price of A$950/oz the A$28 million margin is the equivalent of A37 cents per Alkane share. At the A$1150/oz gold price the value equates to A65 cents per Alkane share, and at A$1350/oz it is A94 cents per share – or 4.3 times the current share price. No-one is saying rush out and load up with Alkane paper, but there is no denying that Tomingley is shaping as the project which will “re-birth†a company which has been around for 29 years, and assembled a wealth of mining knowledge and survival skills. Also, if the shift back to production at Tomingley isn’t sufficient reason to blow the dust off your Alkane file there are the other two projects lurking in the background. Dubbo, which is potentially one of Australia’s more interesting mineral processing adventures, continues to make progress at a demonstration plant at Australia’s nuclear research facility at Lucas Heights. High levels of uranium in the ore have determined the location of this process-testing, but the real key will be demand for zirconia, niobium and rare earths. Samples are being distributed now to potential buyers (and investors), but Dubbo as yet remains a sleeper in the Alkane portfolio. More likely to make brisk progress is the Moorilda gold project which includes the McPhillamys discovery Alkane has put into a joint venture with Newmont. Drilling continues at the discovery site which a “near-ologist†would say is in the same vicinity as the 50 million ounce Cadia Valley mines of Newcrest. Latest drilling results include more monster hits such as a 236 metre zone assaying 1.23 grams a tonne of gold starting at a depth of 219 metres. Another hole assayed 0.64 grams a tonne across 304 metres. Those drill hits, when combined with earlier results, point to McPhillamys possibly becoming a very large, low-grade, mining operation. Newmont certainly seems to share that view having exercised a right to take control of the exploration process from January 1, a decision which is both a plus and a minus. The negative aspect is that it means news flow from the project will slow down, and even if Newmont rates McPhillamys as one of its top five exploration targets in the world (which it does) then it will join an exploration and project development pipeline that suits Newmont. The good news is that at some point McPhillamys will emerge as a world-class development and Alkane will probably have a 25 per cent share of the action – which is another, longer-term reason, to take a fresh look at an old explorer that’s in the process of being revitalised.
  18. vegemite

    MCO

    Good to see that they are keeping their admin costs low... "CWG has only $488,000 to its name, but administration costs were just $87,000 for the three months. Managing director Malcolm Bird says he lived off the smell of an oily rag in previous downturns and survived. CWG shares an office with Morning Star Gold (MCO) for a cost of $12,000 a year and neither company employs office staff"
  19. Nexus Energy (NXS) Patersons Speculative Buy recommendation Target price of $1.77 Last traded at 50c NEXUS Energy has resolved its short-term funding problems, but Patersons rates the stock a speculative buy, warning that funding is an ongoing risk.At the end of December, Nexus had a cash balance of $51.7 million and received another $23.5 million in January from the sale of its ROC shares. Patersons notes in its brief on the stock that Nexus has forecast total exploration and development expenditure for the next quarter of $86 million, of which $47 million will be committed to Longtom. In the December quarter Nexus drew down an additional $35 million on the Longtom facility, leaving $105 million for completion of the project, including $15 million for cost over-runs. The project, in the Gippsland Basin off the Victorian coast, remains on budget (revised gross expenditure of $300 million) and on track for delivery of gas in the middle of this year. Onshore works at the gas plant are under way and the offshore installation scoping will start in March. The analysts noted that the farm-out process for the Crux project, in the Browse Basin of Western Australia, was crucial to the company. In October, Nexus shares dived because the sale of a 25 per cent stake in the project to Japanese group Mitsui collapsed. With technical definition of the project completed, other key decisions are on hold pending an outcome of the farm-out negotiations. Nexus is planning to sell down its 85 per cent stake following the withdrawal of the Mitsui deal. "It is likely Nexus will be required to relinquish a greater percentage to attract a buyer and to pocket sufficient cash to fund its remaining interest in the development," Patersons said. "A timely and successful farm-out of Crux is required to de-risk Nexus and to guarantee that it can fund its contributions for the development. While short-term funding issues for Longtom appear to be resolved, execution remains a risk."
  20. From Pure Speculation section of Monday's Australian... "....Alarm bells went off at BGF Equities during the week when news arrived that Toronto-listed Red Back Mining, with a gold mine in Ghana, had raised $C150 million. Analyst Warwick Grigor interprets this as Red Back preparing to make a bid for Perseus Mining (PRU), a junior now gearing up for production in Ghana. Perseus not only has a 4.7 million ounce resource in the country, with forecast first-year production cash costs of $US268 an ounce, but it raised $8.5 million last month. Over the past week, Perseus shares have gone from 60c to 73.5c, helped by both the strong gold price and growing talk of a takeover. Trading activity could heat up as more punters get the sniff of a predator?
  21. vegemite

    Gold

    In reply to: flower on Wednesday 14/01/09 05:00pm hi flower and others, any suggestions for strategies to take advantage of an increase in the gold price while avoiding the situation you describe - ie increase in the $USD gold price being negated by an increase in the australian dollar? cheers v
  22. In reply to: sabretoothed on Tuesday 23/12/08 02:40pm December 22, 2008 Perseus Livens Christmas Spirits By Our Man In Oz If Mark Calderwood finds nothing under his Christmas tree on Thursday morning he will not be complaining. As chief executive of the Australian-based, African-focused gold exploration company, Perseus Mining, Calderwood thinks Christmas might have come early in the form of “very forgiving†ore at the Ayanfuri project in Ghana. Sounding appropriately Christian in the festive season, “forgiving†ore liberates its gold easily. So easily in the case of Ayanfuri that Calderwood and his team are spending the holiday season crunching numbers to discover exactly how much they will save in processing costs, starting with a much smaller crushing mill, less electricity, fewer consumables and the elimination of entire sections of a conventional gold plant. From a per-ounce production cost in the US$430 range the new back-of-the envelope estimate is in the low US$300 range. In Australian slang terms, even a legendary character known as Blind Freddie (and his dog) could see that saving around US$100/ounce on production costs has a dramatic effect on financial calculations, not to mention the potential impact on a company’s share price. “We’re certainly looking at some major benefits,†Calderwood said when Minesite’s Man in Oz spoke with him a few days before Christmas. “Precisely how much we’re likely to save should be known in a few weeks, but a starting point in the exercise is that we’re likely to need a much smaller mill, and use far less electricity.†For newcomers to Perseus it is a company which has discovered a number of very promising gold lodes in Ghana and neighbouring Ivory Coast. Ayanfuri, near the Atlantic Coast in the central Ashanti gold belt, will be the first cab off the company’s rank. After that, subject to ongoing exploration, will come the Tengrela prospect in the north of Ivory Coast, close to substantial goldmines in that country and neighboring Mali. Interesting as Tengrela is likely to be in the future the action today is at Ayanfuri where Perseus has pinpointed an initial resource of 1.9 million ounces of gold, the major part of a total west African resource of 4.7 million ounces in the assorted classification which make up gold-in-the ground estimates. In early October, Calderwood said the first pass of a definitive feasibility study had produced a base case for a mine at Ayanfuri yielding 196,000 ounces of gold in each of the first five years of a 10 year campaign, and 162,000 ounces in each of the final five years. The estimated capital cost was US$175 million, based on a mill processing 4.5 million tonnes of ore a year, to produce gold at around US$430 an ounce. But, having produced numbers which are reasonably attractive in a financial climate where gold is selling for around $830 an ounce Perseus has been lured back to the drawing board courtesy of Ayanfuri’s forgiving ore, a development delay which appears to have annoyed some investors who have failed to spot a change for the good. They’re the bunnies who dumped Perseus at A20 cents a share late last month and missed the bounce to A36.5 cents late last week., which is still well short of the stock’s 12-month high of A$1.60 though the trend in this case could definitely be your friend given the outlook for the gold price. “Our plans are changing because the process route has been changed,†Calderwood said. “Basically, we’re getting some major benefits in processing. Even though it’s a classic free-milling carbon-in-leach (CIL) circuit we can still improve it dramatically.†Calderwood said guidance for the market on exactly what is being achieved should be released in the next few weeks. “All we can say at this stage is that we’re dealing with massive changes in capital and operating costs,†he said. An early guide to what Calderwood is pointing to is a benefit to be gained from the ore releasing its gold very easily. “What we found is that during a flash floatation test we got much better recovery than we expected,†he said. “What that boils down to is that we can double the grind size, get a higher recovery, and have a throw-away tails having extracted 97 per cent of the gold. That means you reduce the size of the ball mill and crushing circuit, get rid of the back end of the mill, and produce a 3 per cent concentrate which is 40 to 80 grams a tonne, and just treat that as free milling concentrate and save a fortune on power, ball milling, cyanide, and all sorts of other stuff.†As Calderwood explains the latest events at Ayanfuri it occurs to Minesite’s Man in Oz that what he’s really talking about is the equivalent of a significant “above ground†discovery. It’s the same orebody, but it’s just got a lot more profitable, leading to this logical question: what are the likely savings in costs? “We’re still doing the numbers,†is Calderwood’s answer. But, it is substantial?, asks Minesite. “Very substantial,†he said. “We hope for some indicative numbers in a few weeks, but we’re still pushing the grind size. We’ve done flotation work at 212 and 1000 micron and we think it’s somewhere between where the action is. We’re still playing with it, but as a general rule, every time we increase the grind size it makes a huge difference.†In case Minesite’s technical chat with Calderwood has lost less technically minded readers there is a simple explanation. Essentially, by increasing the grind size Perseus is planning to spend less time, effort and money on crushing the ore. “What we mean is that we relax the grind, it means a coarser grind. It means a small mill is likely to be required, less wear and tear, less power. Savings all round.†Now for the Biblical bit to complete the Christmas message from Perseus. “You can say that the ore is very forgiving,†he said. It sounds like a rather Christian orebody is the tongue in cheek suggestion from Minesite. Ho Ho Ho!!!, is Calderwood’s reply, before switching back into technical mode to explain what it all means. “A forgiving orebody is one that doesn’t disappear on you when you mine it. Forgiving metallurgically means it doesn’t give you grief when you mill it.†To put all this into perspective Calderwood explains that a conventional gold mill reduces ore to a between 75 and 106 microns. “We’re looking at 212 microns, or more. It can save 30-to-40 per cent of your power bill, and cut back the use of grinding media.†Financially, the benefits are huge. “We need to produce the exact numbers but basically we’ll go from a 26 per cent internal rate of return (IRR) double or treble that number, which is what you have to do in this market,†he said. “The game is over for sub-30 per cent IRR.†Calderwood said in the early years of the project he was hopeful of dropping costs into the low US$300/oz range.
  23. In reply to: mercury on Thursday 18/12/08 10:50am From today's Australian... Phosphate market set to remain tight PURE SPECULATION: Robin Bromby | December 22, 2008 Article from: The Australian KING Mohammed VI of Morocco, it was reported recently, is the fifth wealthiest royal in the world with his personal $US1.5 billion fortune based largely on selling phosphate, of which his country is the world's largest producer. He -- and Morocco -- plan to remain the Saudi Arabia of phosphate. The North African state is apparently refusing to budge from its asking price of $US400 a tonne of phosphate rock. Rock has gone from $US200/t this time last year to $US400 in March; $US500 in June. There have been reports that Jordan has been selling at $US350/t but, if the Moroccans stick to their guns, the market will be tight. In the short term this might not matter, as the world in recent months has been under-fertilising. The cost of fertilisers, along with the inability of farmers (in the US particularly) to get loans to buy this product, has resulted in big cuts to applications on farm land. This will, inevitably, affect crop yields and already bodies such as the Food & Agricultural Organisation are warning of increased famine around the world. It was a sign of the times that earlier this month New York-listed The Mosaic Co, the world's largest producer of phosphates, reported a 38 per cent drop in sales volumes for the preceding three months. As for local investors, they have -- after initially leaping head-first into anything related to phosphate and potash -- gone quite lukewarm on the whole idea of soft commodities (another "stronger for longer" busted flush). The news out of Warrnambool Cheese & Butter Factory (WCB) after Friday's close won't help. Business there has "softened considerably" due to the unexpected and substantial reduction in world dairy prices over the past few weeks. There will also be write-downs of inventory and adjustments of foreign exchange contracts to take into account the dollar depreciation. The stock, which went above $5 on the news that WCB was going to own half of Dairy Farmers' cheese business, closed at $3.78. BUT Andrew Drummond, who runs Minemakers (MAK), is not worried by this. The world has got to eat, and the imperatives of food production will, he argues, mean that phosphate prices will be off again within 12 months. Incidentally, the world's largest potash producer, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, is predicting shortages in the next few years as fertiliser demand recovers. Drummond believes he can get phosphate rock from the Wonarah project across the wharves at Darwin for around $US100/t. The company claims to have Australia's largest phosphate resource at 461 million tonnes and he is now looking to raise around $100 million to allow the first phosphate to be loaded on a train to Darwin in just over 12 months. While most exploration sectors have gone quiet, the phosphate and potash crowd is clearly working on the same assumptions as Drummond and Potash Corp. In Queensland, GBM Resources (GBZ) has begun drilling its Burke River phosphate deposit while NuPower Resources (NUP) has got itself very excited about the Lucy Creek project, saying its review of the former CRA's drilling records from 1993 leads it to believe this may be a world-class deposit. Worth watching will be Transit Holdings (TRH), run by Richard Monti (an Andrew Forrest mate from the days of Anaconda Nickel), which is running the ruler over a potash project in Utah. But if political risk is more your game, there's Oklo Uranium (OKU), which has just acquired a permit in Mali that contains what appears to be a very large phosphate occurrence. And for those with nerves of steel, there's always Russia. Red Emperor Resources (RMP) is to acquire a 70 per cent interest in a Siberian potash project. Interestingly, the announcement contains the qualification that the deal is conditional "on the vendor demonstrating that it has clear title to the project". Plucky is the only word we can think of to apply here.
  24. In reply to: Gum Nut on Saturday 20/12/08 10:03am Some "headlines" courtesy of Marcus Padley. The ozl schmozzle gets a couple of honorary mentions ¦ Keating declares "recession China had to have". ¦ Chinese economic growth hits minus 8% as "ruralisation" process accelerates. ¦ RBA cuts official cash rate to zero and disbands. ¦ Sony and Panasonic declare record profits after Australian sales balloon on ineffective $10.4 billion stimulus package. ¦ Resources bulls gain balcony role in The Muppets. Apologise for being "wronger for longer". ¦ Share prices rise as Teletubbies appointed to the boards of OZ Minerals and Babcock & Brown. ¦ BHP bids one BHP share for 3.4 Rio shares. ¦ Commonwealth Bank sued over "Equity mate" ad campaign. ¦ Commonwealth Bank opens pleasure boat dealership. Marine disclaimer includes "debt mate" warning. ¦ Banks retain $14 billion in dividend payouts after $28 billion of share placements that knock $50 billion off their market capitalisations. ¦ US court rules in Fortescue shipping case that "getting it completely wrong at the top of the market" cannot equitably be considered as "unforeseen circumstances". ¦ Obama inaugurated as President of GM, Chrysler, Ford and the US. Signs of the bottom: ¦ Broker values resources stock using metal price assumptions below spot. ¦ Ratio of broker buy to sell recommendations drops from 99% to 94%. ¦ Economist declares a "new paradigm" in investment theory. ¦ Macquarie introduces a "shorts" derivative warrant option CFD geared leveraged product line. ¦ The genius declares "this is just the beginning" and takes job in Jim's Mowing franchise. After the bottom: ¦ Melbourne housewife makes $64 million on forgotten BrisConnections day trading position. ¦ OZ Minerals receivers launch "Pasminco" IPO. It is oversubscribed. ¦ Stockbroker's wife allowed to buy shoes again (not before).
  25. vegemite

    CUO

    In reply to: vegemite on Wednesday 03/12/08 10:02am On another forum (HC), a shareholder group has been created to explore what options might be available for anyone caught out by the CUO collapse. The more the better as there is strength in numbers and a bigger range of ideas etc. From Susan's emails so far it seems like all hope is not yet lost. To join the group, email Susan at the address below: hayman_and_king@hotmail.com (Permission has been obtained to post this) Cheers, V
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