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vegemite

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About vegemite

  • Birthday 05/18/1964

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  1. Some books I've borrowed from the Library and particularly enjoyed. 1) How to live : or, A life of Montaigne in one question and twenty attempts at an answer, 2011 Heard the author interviewed on a Radio National podcast and enjoyed the book greatly "How to get on well with people, how to deal with violence, how to adjust to losing someone you love? How to live? This question obsessed Renaissance nobleman Michel Eyquem de Montaigne (1533-92), who wrote free-roaming explorations of his thought and experience, unlike anything written before. This first full biography of Montaigne in English for nearly fifty years relates the story of his life by way of the questions he posed and the answers he explored." 2) Confession of a Buddhist atheist, 2011 Another book read sparked by an RN podcast. Very interesting if you have any interest in buddhism "Charting his journey from hippie to monk to lay practitioner, teacher, and interpreter of Buddhist thought, Stephen Batchelor reconstructs the historical Buddha's life, locating him within the social and political context of his world. In examining the ancient texts of the Pali Canon, the earliest record of the Buddha's life and teachings, Batchelor argues that the Buddha was a man who looked at human life in a radically new way for his time, more interested in the question of how human beings should live in this world than in notions of karma and the afterlife." 3) Romulus, my father 4) Cannery road, John Steinbeck. A favourite book mentioned by someone on the radio and I can see why 5) The swerve : how the Renaissance began A nice mix of history, mystery, religion, philosophy "Nearly six hundred years ago, a short, genial, cannily alert man in his late 30s took a very old manuscript off a library shelf, saw with excitement what he had discovered, and ordered that it be copied. The book was the last surviving manuscript of an ancient Roman philosophical epic. This title tells the story of this discovery." Anyone else have some favourite reads to share? V
  2. Hi DG/Alkimos/Gum Nut/Wasa et al, I have a scenario in my mind - one that I don't really like - but it is there so wonder what your thoughts about it are. Wade et al wait for African Petroleum to drill their adjacent block. If successful then they can extract much more from the Senegal blocks . If unsuccessful then they let FAR have it for the $5 million. Perhaps a big paranoid but when you consider how long it has taken so far to get the decree and some of the stories about Wade that you read it does not seem totally implausible, Thanks, Rob
  3. Also posted this over at HC In the Pure Speculation column "Dave Wall at Hartleys describes it as probably the most significant well involving an ASX-listed junior oil and gas company this year. He is referring to the Kora project offshore of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. Kora is a 448 million barrel prospect in which FAR (FAR) has an 8.8 per cent interest. Wall says that, if this prospect were to be a success, then FAR's potential income is around $1 billion" http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/o...x-1226086733465
  4. Hi Wasa, Peter Strachan in a recent StockAnalysis issue suggests that GB has a risked value of about 1.6 cents (11% chances of success and 16 cents value per share if there is a discovery). His base case is 3.1 cents for cash and production so if Kora was a duster and Senegal fell over - almost worst case scenario - then by his reckoning shares would be worth about 5 cents. So GB is something to fall back onto but not that much (unless it comes through) - Senegal and Kora are the big ones (his discovery value per share in both cases is 67 and 44 cents respectively). Note that he is always pretty conservative in his chance of success estimations (has Kora at only 35%) so perhaps things a little bit better with GB than the 1.6 cents suggest? re the great Gum nut gusher - I hope we all get to enjoy a similar dream ! Cheers, V
  5. Thanks Gum Nut, Very interesting. There are a couple of more recent articles by Hesthammer but unfortunately they require payment/subscription. CSEM performance in light of well results (Jan 2010) http://tle.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/29/1/34 CSEM performance in light of well results (March 2011) http://208.88.129.54/March-2011-Value-crea...ic-imaging.aspx With regard to the the 2011 Rocksource presentation (number 3 in your list), I find the graph on page 15 interesting where the success rate is given as 70% when there is a strong EM response (as is the case with Kora as stated on page 20) Also quite interesting is page 39 (True and false positives). I'm not sure that I quite understand it all but it seems to suggest that they have given quite conservative chances of success • The Rocksource portfolio contains 20 prospects with EM anomalies • Rocksource general place a COS of c. 50-60% on the prospects • Despite having done considerably more work on our individual datasets, suggesting that our estimates are conservative So I'm happy to accept the 50+% CoS given but am secretly hopeful that they might actually estimate it substantially higher than this, Cheers, V
  6. vegemite

    TSV

    This is from the 22nd September edition of the excellent StockAnalysis newsletter. From my own calculations the options (QPNO and TNPO) offer approximately 40 fold leverage against the roughly 15 fold leverage for QPN and TNP so personally I've picked up some QPNO. The attraction of the more conservative TSV purchase is that as Peter says the share price is underpinned by Warro so won't entirely crash and burn in the case of a duster... Transerv Strikes a Deal on Gulf Coast TSV, QPN, TNP Recommendation: Transerv’s current share price is underpinned by an ongoing 10% interest in tight gas development at Warro, where Alcoa is funding field evaluation. Participation in the Amazon prospect holds speculative appeal. Success would underpin ongoing cash requirements and would add significantly to its assessed value. During a hiatus in drilling activity at its 10% held Warro tight gas field in the Perth Basin, Transerv has used its corporate connections with Quest Petroleum, combined with a flow of new equity funds from the exercise of options, to take a 5% interest in the drilling of two, relatively moderate risk prospects on the Louisiana Gulf Coast to be drilled over the next 6 months. The larger Amazon prospect is expected to spud in October and is likely to take six weeks to drill to a total depth of 4,880 metres, testing several thick horizons of over-pressured sediments within an interpreted tilted fault block structure where strong seismic AVO anomalism supports a case for discovery of gas at depth. Amazon is estimated to be capable of holding 45 mmbbls of oil/condensate plus 450 Bcf of gas if hydrocarbons are present and discovery at this level would be worth 9 cps to Transerv for its 5% interest, while Quest would see a 20 cps uplift for its retained 15% and Tango would also have strong leverage of $1.81 per share for its 17.5% in the project. The smaller Thames structure is situated on the flank of a salt feature and shows multiple layers of targets, again with seismic AVO anomalism supporting the case for drilling. The Amazon wildcat is budgeted to cost US$8.2 million and TSV will be paying for 9% to earn its 5% equity. Partners give Amazon a 35% probability of success, which makes it moderate risk. All ASX listed partners here have strong leverage to success on these relatively large targets. Key risks include the normal exploration type of risks and also an engineering risk, associated with drilling in highly over-pressured sediments. Transerv has taken the stance that this is an achievable target and while there is no current need to spend funds on Warro, this opportunity is worth the risk and if successful could underpin the establishment of a sustaining cash flow to Transerv, which would reduce the need for ongoing new equity issues. Others along the Gulf Coast, including Strike Energy, Golden Gate Resources and Grand Gulf have largely not met expectations from well-formulated, good looking prospects, which failed to deliver, so caution is always necessary in such speculative ventures. TSV - Capital Structure Shares 882.4 m. Options 87.5 m. Total 969.9 m. Price 0.013 $ Market Cap 11.5 $ m. Cash (est) 2.0 $ m. Well oil gas Risk NPV NPV Cost mmbbls Bcf % $m oil gas /BOE US$ Amazon 45 450 20% 1755 22 1.7 14.6 $ 8.0 $ Thames 6 57 20% 223 22 1.6 14.4 $ 5.0 $ Source: Strachan Corporate Permits TSV QPN TNP Amazon 5% 15% 17.5% Thames 5% 15% 17.5% Discovery Value/share $ TSV QPN TNP Amazon 0.09 0.20 1.81 Thames 0.01 0.03 0.23 Risk Adjusted Value/Share 0.019 $ 0.042$ 0.38 $ Leverage/share TSV QPN TNP Amazon 646% 1647% 1390% Thames 82% 210% 177% Combined 728% 1857% 1566% Source: Strachan Corporate
  7. vegemite

    QPN

    This is from the 22nd September edition of the excellent StockAnalysis newsletter. From my own calculations the options (QPNO and TNPO) offer approximately 40 fold leverage against the roughly 15 fold leverage for QPN and TNP so personally I've picked up some QPNO. The attraction of the more conservative TSV purchase is that as Peter says the share price is underpinned by Warro so won't entirely crash and burn in the case of a duster... Transerv Strikes a Deal on Gulf Coast TSV, QPN, TNP Recommendation: Transerv’s current share price is underpinned by an ongoing 10% interest in tight gas development at Warro, where Alcoa is funding field evaluation. Participation in the Amazon prospect holds speculative appeal. Success would underpin ongoing cash requirements and would add significantly to its assessed value. During a hiatus in drilling activity at its 10% held Warro tight gas field in the Perth Basin, Transerv has used its corporate connections with Quest Petroleum, combined with a flow of new equity funds from the exercise of options, to take a 5% interest in the drilling of two, relatively moderate risk prospects on the Louisiana Gulf Coast to be drilled over the next 6 months. The larger Amazon prospect is expected to spud in October and is likely to take six weeks to drill to a total depth of 4,880 metres, testing several thick horizons of over-pressured sediments within an interpreted tilted fault block structure where strong seismic AVO anomalism supports a case for discovery of gas at depth. Amazon is estimated to be capable of holding 45 mmbbls of oil/condensate plus 450 Bcf of gas if hydrocarbons are present and discovery at this level would be worth 9 cps to Transerv for its 5% interest, while Quest would see a 20 cps uplift for its retained 15% and Tango would also have strong leverage of $1.81 per share for its 17.5% in the project. The smaller Thames structure is situated on the flank of a salt feature and shows multiple layers of targets, again with seismic AVO anomalism supporting the case for drilling. The Amazon wildcat is budgeted to cost US$8.2 million and TSV will be paying for 9% to earn its 5% equity. Partners give Amazon a 35% probability of success, which makes it moderate risk. All ASX listed partners here have strong leverage to success on these relatively large targets. Key risks include the normal exploration type of risks and also an engineering risk, associated with drilling in highly over-pressured sediments. Transerv has taken the stance that this is an achievable target and while there is no current need to spend funds on Warro, this opportunity is worth the risk and if successful could underpin the establishment of a sustaining cash flow to Transerv, which would reduce the need for ongoing new equity issues. Others along the Gulf Coast, including Strike Energy, Golden Gate Resources and Grand Gulf have largely not met expectations from well-formulated, good looking prospects, which failed to deliver, so caution is always necessary in such speculative ventures. TSV - Capital Structure Shares 882.4 m. Options 87.5 m. Total 969.9 m. Price 0.013 $ Market Cap 11.5 $ m. Cash (est) 2.0 $ m. Well oil gas Risk NPV NPV Cost mmbbls Bcf % $m oil gas /BOE US$ Amazon 45 450 20% 1755 22 1.7 14.6 $ 8.0 $ Thames 6 57 20% 223 22 1.6 14.4 $ 5.0 $ Source: Strachan Corporate Permits TSV QPN TNP Amazon 5% 15% 17.5% Thames 5% 15% 17.5% Discovery Value/share $ TSV QPN TNP Amazon 0.09 0.20 1.81 Thames 0.01 0.03 0.23 Risk Adjusted Value/Share 0.019 $ 0.042$ 0.38 $ Leverage/share TSV QPN TNP Amazon 646% 1647% 1390% Thames 82% 210% 177% Combined 728% 1857% 1566% Source: Strachan Corporate
  8. hi wasa, that should have been 8/9/10 ta, v
  9. 9/10/11 and not the foggiest who the JV partner might be cheers, v
  10. vegemite

    RRS

    "Independent PW10 DCF valuation of Range’s net interest of US$226m" so $AUD 250 million compared to a market cap of approx 60 million for RRS.
  11. "try this site : http://www.bookdepository.co.uk. its free shipping worldwide" I've used book depository a few times and they are very good. If you use the useful Australian book price comparison site www.booko.com.au then they will often come out on top, Cheers V
  12. Hi Duster, From the latest Hartleys report: The 20 million figure includes US$6.5m in payments expected in CY09 (Shell payment and China sale proceeds) And looking at the recent FAR presentation (Sep) they state they have 13 million on hand which includes Shells 3.5 million but excludes staged payments of $AUD 8.5 million for china assets. If that is all accurate then that equates to about 2.7 cents/share Cheers, V
  13. http://www.sharescene.com/style_images/ip.boardpr/spacer.gif "Thanks for this thread. I am an avid reader and am always looking for new reads. I still own every book that I have ever read - I never sell or dispose of a book - it's my weakness" I can't resist buying second hand Library books (my weakness). However I run a medical library and can put surplus books into a non-clinical area I've set up. "The philosopher and the wolf" is something a bit different and worth seeking out. Currently reading "Jeff in Venice, Death in Varanasi" and so far quite engaging. "You and your money brain" throws up lots of interesting things (e.g. chickens perform better than humans in a particular type of intelligence test to do with patterns versus randomness) and quite possibly could help with humility in investment decisions, Cheers, V
  14. "Yes MacD, if that money had not come in from Zinifex then OXR would have folded, only a lot faster - and I mean really folded! Why is this not more widely appreciated?" I may have this wrong (it became such a complex story) but my understanding of it was as follows: The decision by OXR to merge with ZFX meant that the Oxiana debt, which had been due in 2012 was rolled over as part of the deal to become payable in the current year (2008). This is why the apparently out of the blue financial problems took so many OXR holders by surprise, and in combination with the GFC, led to the rather sorry position that has resulted. To my mind this was by far and away the fatal flaw with the merger decision (from an OXR perspective. For ZFX I think they wouldn't have survived at all). Without it, Oxiana would have been able to make appropriate adjustments for the financial crisis (they had two solid operating assets, and other assets that could have been disposed of if required) and have plenty of time to deal with the 2012 debts given Sepon, Golden Grove, Prominent Hill etc being fully operational by then. And they would have arrived at that place pretty much as the complete OX rather than the hollowed out shell they are now. Anyway as I say I might have that all wrong, and in any case it is really only of historical interest now. OZ now needs to be judged on its current merits etc Cheers, V
  15. June 04, 2009 Kingsgate Is Back On Track With Its Thai Gold Projects, And Australian Brokers Are Struggling To Keep Up By Our Man in Oz “Kingsgate is back to its cash cow phase.†For patient shareholders in this Australian-listed gold miner, already familiar with the story of the company’s assets in Thailand, those eight words say it all. They also explain why the company’s share price “went vertical†late last year. From a lowly A$2.20 in late October Kingsgate Consolidated rocketed up to a recent high on Wednesday 3rd June of A$6.93, a price which is not just a 12-month high, it is an all-time high. Driving Kingsgate is a combination of restored gold production, low costs, fresh discoveries, expansion plans, and the chief executive behind those eight little words, Gavin Thomas. In the many years that Minesite’s Man in Oz has chatted with Thomas he has never encountered so much optimism about the future. This now includes a thinly-veiled criticism that some stockbrokers are missing the change which has occurred at Kingsgate over the past six months. A particular complaint is a “50 per cent discount†some brokers have been applying to the stock because of its focus on the sometimes politically volatile Thai climate. “That really is a nonsense,†Thomas said. “It just underlines the point that some analysts are missing our latest achievements.†He’s right, and it took just 72 hours to discover how right. Morning coffee on Monday was the time when Minesite met Kingsgate in its Martin Place office in central Sydney. As the conversation got underway Kingsgate was trading around A$6.10, and Thomas was pointing out comments such as those in a Macquarie Bank research report which read in part that “the market†was concerned that Kingsgate might not be able to unlock full value for any proposed float on the Thai stock exchange and that the company “appears to be discounted by as much as 50 per cent accordingly.†That observation drew an appropriate “harrumph†from Thomas, who then pointed out what the brokers were not seeing, or were preferring to not see, in case they broke ranks and swam against the comfort of peer consensus. “Some of them say we’ll need to raise equity for the expansion, but that really means they’re not looking at the cash flowâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ, Thomas said. Perhaps someone was listening at the window because by mid-Wednesday the stock hit its all-time high of A$6.93, before easing back to close at A$6.80. Whatever the cause of the sharp share price rise, the fact is that Kingsgate has been re-discovered, and the reasons behind the revival are worth a closer look, especially as the last time Minesite paid close attention to the company was at the height of last year’s market wobbles, and after gold production at the company’s flagship Chatree mine had slowed to a trickle. The cause of the reduced output, which hit rock bottom when just 4,203 ounces of gold were produced in the September quarter at a loss-making US$1,499 an ounce, was a painful government approvals process which was essential before Chatree could expand into a new mining zone. The same approval delay has interrupted exploration, as well as plans to more than double the size of the mine from its current rated capacity of 150,000 ounces a year. Resolution of the approvals logjam was the first, and most important factor, in the re-discovery of Kingsgate. Ever the diplomat, Thomas declines to speak ill of the process, simply describing it as part of the way in which business is done in the region. A quick skip over the tortuous rubber-stamping process is important for two reasons. Most of it is a typical boring exercise in government red tape. Far worse can be encountered in Australia and Canada. Once you look beyond the approvals process a glimpse of “future Kingsgate†can be seen, and it starts with the fact that Chatree is on track to hit and probably exceed its target of 150,000 ounces at a cash cost of less than US$350/oz in calendar 2009. More gold (at a lower cost) means Kingsgate’s bank balance is swelling nicely. So nicely that Thomas is even encouraged to use the “dâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ-word so loved by investors, dividend. “It’s something we’re looking at,†is the encouraging comment. Little wonder. Cash flows from Chatree are entering a period when they might service both a dividend and the estimated US$100 million needed to double the size of Chatree, from its current annual ore throughput rate of 2.4 million tonnes to five million tonnes. Macquarie, despite signing up to the collective broking fraternity view of a 50 per cent Thai discount, actually got the right answer to the cash flow question (but gave the wrong answer to tipping Kingsgate’s future share price). In its May 21 note to clients after a Chatree site visit Macquarie forecast Kingsgate cash flow for the 12-months to June 30 at A$46.7 million, rising to A$105.7 million next year, and then up to US$162.6 million, by which time the broker reckons the stock will be paying a dividend of A30 cents a share and trading on a price-earnings ratio of just 4.6. If those are the broker’s own numbers how on earth could it then suggest a 12-month share price target of A$6.00, a mere A16 cents above the price on the day the report was written. The shares went through that target the following day, May 22. Thomas declines to criticise the brokers and their reticence. Minesite’s Man in Oz is more than happy to do the job for him because not only has Kingsgate climbed out of a hole marked “government approvals processâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ, but it has restored Chatree, and is now steaming ahead rapidly with its long-delayed expansion plans. But wait, as those dreadful American kitchen appliance advertisements screech out on television, there’s more! None of the valuations take into account the expanding resource base in the pits which make up Chatree, with deeper drilling pointing to a substantial increase in the resource base, plus the potential for the new Chokdee prospect being as big, if not bigger, than Chatree. Rock chip samples at Chockdee have assayed at up to 1,030 grams a tonne and drill hits have returned encouraging grades such as 13 metres at 2.91 grams a tonne and two metres at 21.9 grams a tonne. Soil chemistry is even more interesting with the Chokdee outline bearing a remarkable resemblance to Chatree, but on a bigger scale. Much more work is required at the discovery zone, and Kingsgate will undoubtedly concentrate on completing its long-delayed expansion. But, as the existing operation doubles in size there is the blue-sky appeal of a lookalike development – and none of that is being factored into the latest broker valuations of the stock, which were out of date within days.
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