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Financial Chatter

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  1. last year we got a trading update in the week before Christmas. I wonder whether we will see a similar positive update this year.
  2. Fantastic outlook here! Double 1st half 2013 & I would suggest double the second half as well, so long as the world does not implode! In answer to a question from the floor, Chairman indicated that they would look to reward shareholders. They have 6.5m in franking credits, which equates to $15m div ff, roughly 8c ps on top of whatever the a/c grows by this yr.
  3. Financial Chatter

    EXS

    I think that you will find that they have only paid up to 26c The 1/2 cent gain (less costs) is a low risk play for them And I think that they started buying @ 25.5c Personally, I think that is all that they are going to make on this deal, as I think that the chance of a higher offer is very remote.
  4. you might have sold too early. now highest share price since 2006! Going up absolute gangbusters! Looks like we can expect earnings upgrades. Presume that some broker coverage will follow now to drive it higher
  5. and then there is the AGM later in the week. I expect that we will get a bullish trading update at the AGM if not before.
  6. look like a few are getting set ahead of this conference next week: 3rd Annual Australian Microcap Investment Conference Dear XXXX, Don't miss your chance to attend Australia's largest investment conference focused on emerging ASX companies on Tuesday 16th and Wednesday 17th October 2012. As an institutional investor you are provided with a FREE invitation (valued at $595) to attend. Hear from over 20 CEOs and keynote speakers over two exciting days, including: • Vocus Communications • Bionomics • TFS Corporation • NewSat • MaxiTRANS • Jumbo Interactive • Rum Jungle Resources • Advanced Braking Technology • Clean TeQ Holdings • Vesture • Integrated Legal Holdings • Benitec Biopharma • Carbon Conscious
  7. Financial Chatter

    MPO

    Some really strong large buying going on today - very bullish IMO
  8. I also suspect that the email supposedly from Woolworths asking us to participate in a survey is a phishing exercise
  9. Financial Chatter

    MPO

    From "acreage" at another site: CLICK HERE FOR ARTICLE Shale Takeovers Looming as Texas Discounted in Australia By James Paton and Angus Whitley - Sep 28, 2012 12:35 PM GMT+1000 .. Buyers seeking a piece of North America’s shale boom can find it in Australia. Australian companies exploring for oil and natural gas that’s trapped in shale rock in the U.S. and Canada are valued at a median of 11 times their reserves, a 23 percent discount to their counterparts that are listed on stock exchanges in North America, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The valuation gap -- driven by Australian investors who are more than 8,000 miles (12,800 kilometers) from the companies’ wells in Texas and Oklahoma -- may lure acquirers, said RBS Morgans Ltd. Antares Energy Ltd. is among potential targets, with its Southern Star field in the Permian Basin in Texas worth more than twice the company’s $130 million market capitalization on the Australian stock exchange, estimates Hartleys Ltd. Adelaide- based Sundance Energy Australia Ltd., which last month agreed to sell a North Dakota asset for more than the company’s market value at the time, could lure bidders with its remaining acreage that’s worth at least five times more than what’s reflected in the share price, said Bell Potter Securities Ltd. “I expect many more transactions involving Australian players and the huge number of U.S. and international players currently looking to open up and exploit shale gas and shale oil,†Ben Griffiths, who helps oversees $1 billion in assets for Sydney-based Eley Griffiths Group Pty., said in a telephone interview. “The area is a hive of activity and that’s not going to lessen.†Melbourne-based Molopo Energy Ltd. and Perth, Australia- based Red Fork Energy Ltd., are also potential targets, he said. ‘Suitors Approach Antares rose as much as 2.1 percent today and was last up 1 percent at A$0.49 a share as of 12:25 p.m. in Sydney. Sundance gained as much as 3.3 percent, while Red Fork rose as much as 1.4 percent. Molopo fell 5.6 percent to A$0.59. Eric McCrady, Sundance’s managing director, didn’t reply to phone messages seeking comment. David Prentice, Red Fork’s managing director, didn’t reply to a phone message or e-mail seeking comment on whether the company is undervalued and a takeover target. Molopo isn’t in any takeover discussions, Chief Executive Officer Tim Granger said in a phone interview from Calgary. Granger said Molopo is undervalued, partly because of a lack of understanding among Australian investors about the company’s Wolfcamp project in Texas. Antares has been approached by suitors interested in its Permian Basin projects and will consider bids that reflect valuations paid for similar assets, Chief Executive Officer James Cruickshank said in a telephone interview from Dallas. Antares, based in Perth, is also considering listing shares in the U.S., he said. ‘U.S. Focus Formerly known as Amity Oil Ltd., Antares changed its name and shifted its focus to the U.S. in 2004, after scrapping its Whicher Range gas project in Australia and cutting reserves in Turkey. The company invested in the Permian Basin in 2011. That basin, a 300-mile long geologic formation that has been gushing oil and gas for more than 90 years, is attracting interest from major international oil producers who quit the region in the mid-1980s when oil prices were lower. The development of so-called hydraulic fracturing to extract gas trapped in shale rock has opened formations formerly written off as uneconomic. “Antares is definitely a candidate for transactional activity on a corporate and an asset basis,†Dave Wall, an analyst at Perth-based Hartleys, said in a phone interview. “Investors in Australia don’t have a deep understanding of the Permian. In Canada, it would be trading with a much higher market cap.†Antares’s market value yesterday was A$124.6 million ($130 million). ‘Shale Standout Wall pointed to BreitBurn Energy Partners LP’s purchase of oil and gas properties next to Antares’s Southern Star field. Los Angeles-based BreitBurn paid $220 million for 9.5 million barrels of oil equivalent of estimated proved reserves, according to a statement. Based on that price, Southern Star could fetch as much as $294 million, Wall said. Antares is worth A$1.22 a share, or more than twice its closing price of A$0.485 yesterday, according to a sum-of-the- parts valuation Wall published on Sept. 5. Sundance last month said it would receive $172 million for a stake in North Dakota’s Williston Basin from Denver-based QEP Resources Inc. Sundance, which had a market value of about $162 million at the sale’s announcement, leapt 38 percent in one day. Even after selling the Williston Basin acreage, Sundance’s concentration on areas rich in so-called natural-gas liquids such as propane may appeal to potential buyers, said Johan Hedstrom, an analyst at Bell Potter. “U.S. companies are quite active in the shale space, particularly in assets with a liquids focus, and that’s what Sundance has,†Hedstrom said in a phone interview. “That makes them a standout.†‘Worth More Hedstrom has a 12-month share-price estimate for Sundance of A$1.20 a share, 60 percent above yesterday’s closing price. The company’s Bakken formation assets are worth about $15,000 an acre, and other fields about $5,000 an acre, higher than the $1,000-per-acre value implied by its A$0.75 share price, he said. Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest energy company by market value, last week said it will pay about $2 billion for Bakken shale assets in North Dakota and Montana. Royal Dutch Shell Plc this month agreed to buy oil and gas fields in the Permian Basin for $1.9 billion from Chesapeake Energy Corp., paying about $3,131 an acre, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “The oil shale assets are certainly being looked at by companies that need long-term reserves,†Krista Walter, a Sydney-based energy, oil and gas analyst at RBS Morgans, said in a phone interview. “Asset sales are common but company takeovers can happen as well.†‘Valuation Gap Still, the Australian companies aren’t fetching the valuations they deserve, said Bell Potter’s Hedstrom. Eight companies with U.S. oil and gas assets have a median enterprise-value-to-reserves ratio of 11 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That includes Antares, which has an enterprise value of $178 million, or 7.2 times its proven and probable oil and gas reserves of 24.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, the data show. The median of 25 North American companies with exposure to shale oil and gas, including EQT Corp. and Range Resources Corp., is 14.3 times, the data show. “We’re much better informed and educated about shale than we were 12 months ago, yet the Aussie companies with U.S. assets haven’t had much of a rerating,†Hedstrom said. One reason for the gap is that Australian investors aren’t comfortable investing in assets so far away, said Antares’s CEO Cruickshank. Antares wouldn’t choose Australia as a trading venue if it were conducting a share sale today, he said. ‘Debt Load “You get the highest possible valuation for assets when they are owned by the people who are closest to them,†he said. “Australians seem pretty comfortable investing in Asia. The Americans are very good at investing in Canada.†Some Australian companies are also drawing a lower valuation because they have higher levels of debt than Australian investors are typically comfortable with, said Walter from RBS Morgans. This would be less of a problem for U.S. investors, she said. Antares has net debt equivalent to 53 percent of its net assets, compared with an average of 85 percent of shareholder equity for the 25 North American companies, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Macquarie Group Ltd. has also agreed to lend Antares as much as $200 million under a debt facility. “Many of these companies tend to have debt facilities in place for capital expenditure requirements and Australian investors tend to prefer companies that don’t have large debt facilities,†Walter said. “In the North American market, that’s more common.†‘Game-On’ Molopo, another potential target, sold its Australian coal- bed methane holdings to PetroChina Co. in August so it could focus on the U.S. and Canada, while Red Fork has projects in Oklahoma covering a combined 145,000 acres, according to its website. Molopo also is considering a listing on a North American stock exchange, potentially Toronto, CEO Granger said last month. The listing closer to its operations may help Molopo’s share price “get treated with a little more respect,†he said. “It’s game-on over there, and for the right basins with the right producible characteristics, those assets will be keenly sought,†Griffiths, the fund manager, said. “We’ve seen a couple of successes and there will be a few that won’t work, but it looks like it has worked well for the Aussies.â€ÂÂÂÂÂ
  10. Financial Chatter

    MPO

    it might have pulled back on the match up at 4.10pm, but I was pretty impressed with this afternoons consistent buying. it is a long time since we have seen only 230k on the sell side. next week should bring in further buying from w/end papers highlighting the share purchases by directors and also the issue of the SA license. If this is followed with some news from USA with some drilling results, we might see some real upward movement!
  11. Financial Chatter

    MPO

    Peased to at long last see that task with a tick beside it. I would think that as it remains a non-core asset, it would be sold soon. Now that they have the licence it will be very easy to sell the asset imo. For those that are not aware, the awarding of this license is very significant for South Africa. It really is the 1st onshore license to ever be granted, and will therefore be valued by someone such as Shell.
  12. Financial Chatter

    EXS

    the time has come to bid au revoir! EXS has been a wonderful story to have been involved with, and I am immensely grateful to Michael Anderson and Geoff Laing for all their efforts. Whilst it is true that a lot more money could have been made by trading the stock much more actively than I did, I am extremely happy with the result achieved since I first started buying back in 2003. In the absence of any other offer, SOL have paid a fair price, but not a fantastic price. For those that can recall the time taken to get Xstrata to buy the Cloncurry Copper Project, you would appreciate that the future value that some posters are mentioning that could be made, that it would be a very long time before that value could be realised. I have thoroughly enjoyed the comradeship on the EXS threads over the last few years and look forward to sharing thoughts on other stocks in the future. I have my list of posters that I know are prepared to do some research and make valuable insights into stocks. Looking forward to finding the next EXS. I will certainly be looking at the other vehicles that Alasdair Cooke is involved in.
  13. Financial Chatter

    EXS

    " It will be interesting to see if someone in the media has a sniff and writes it up tomorrow. " It would seem not to be the case. Being kept very tight lipped
  14. Financial Chatter

    EXS

    11.29% cu and 0.79 g/t au within a broader zone of 15m @ 5.78% Cu and 0.53 g/t Au Quite stunning! Would expect some bigger interest now that we have these results. nothing wrong with the hole that had 22metres at 2.8% either! Remember guys, all this sits directly below a defined reserve of about 2 million tonnes grading between 2 and 3% And as someone else posted elsewhere "we should be trading in the 30's on this result" and all the selling orders are old orders that have been there for at least a week, so once it starts to move, it should move fast. Results like that speak for themselves. Don't forget Mt Colin is valued at ZERO by the market !
  15. Financial Chatter

    EXS

    I also thought that Wolverine's analysis was sound. However it would seem that something is happening in the background from somewhere. It would also seem that it must have been written up somewhere as there were a lot of buy orders piling in during the last half hour of trading, and it seems that is continuing looking at the board this morning.
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