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mminion

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Everything posted by mminion

  1. QUOTE (TheFerret @ Tuesday 06/01/09 02:06pm) "They have in no uncertain terms told me to stay out and wait and watch" I'd have to agree, that said if you're bearish there is the odd long term bargain out there. Based on their advice I'd say they are sitting on their investment properties (verses selling them all now) ? Worth noting I was at a open house for quick look on the weekend, it was interesting to note there was a hint of "hush" in the sale (no one sells xmas-new year unless you have to). Being a little stickybeak I noticed two UNI degrees on the wall, engineering/geo… this was also backed up with the hard hats and dusty work boots in the garage. Very quickly got the opinion both worked in the resource sector (waiting now for db76 to comment) and wanted to get out now and sit on the cash. The point I'm making is if your cashed up there are some "rushed" / "forced" sales starting to enter the market. Long term view points come into play (the buy/reno/sell idea is way too riskly at the moment). Cheers Matt
  2. QUOTE (db76 @ Tuesday 06/01/09 11:08am) db76, "30% deposits", "Housing prices have fallen by as much as 50 percent" Without wanting to sound rude I think you need to get out into the real world a little more, papers sell on hype. Yes housing may have dropped 50% in Ireland (I never like round numbers it normally means someone is "rounding") but if you dig into the facts you'll discover the figure effects one suburb only and isn't the national average by a long shot. Good friends of mine 2 weeks ago purchased a house, $430K with a 10% deposit. Banks aren't worried, first they are covered by mortgage insurance and second in Australia they loan based on your ability to service the mortgage. That's the issue here, the US and UK offered 95%, 100% and even 105% mortgages to people who couldn't afford to service the mortgage. They got the mortgage on honeymoon rates (well below what they offer in Australia) on the idea that they would "refinance" or "quickly sell for a profit" once those rates expired. It all worked IF housing prices rose http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif If you go back through this topic you'll see a lot of discussion about the differences between mortgages in Australia verses the US/UK... it's apples and oranges (i.e. Interest only loans were common in the US, yet in Australia they are very rare) All that aside the "spending wave" theory is well worth a read… there is logic in the theory. http://www.news.com.au/business/money/stor...470-462,00.html Cheers Matt
  3. In reply to: db76 on Friday 02/01/09 12:08pm "reality beats statistics" If you know 100 people statistically 2 of them will become unemployed this year. That's reality and anything more is just hype. If you live in NSW or VIC you'll be lucky to know 1 out of 100. If you look at Sharescene's poll (If 'cash equivalents' plus 'shares' = 100%, what percentage of shares are you holding?) there are a lot of people sitting on piles of cash. I've also seen this first hand as a number of people I know have recently asked me if I think it's a good time to buy back into the share market. As I said below only 4% of the 2% will be facing negative equity. The idea that most will be forced to dump their assets in a fire sale isn't reality. Those that due will move into the rental market... that in turn drives up rental demand and hence effects investment property prices. The debt/income (as I showed below) IMO shows why we won't have the same RE issues that US/UK have. Cheers Matt
  4. In reply to: Mags on Thursday 01/01/09 10:03pm "I had heard household wealth dropped by 9%" IMO you'll find most of that is "super" related.. If anything super has taken more then a 9% hit but that's been cancelled out by the housing price increase. db76, It's easier to keep to just "household" debt for the discussion. From what I understand "Unincorporated enterprises" & "Nonfinancial business" are the same thing (so while it maybe $1269 Billion in AUS, it's $24.9 Trillion in the US" Flowers point is valid.. "Surely for your figures to be meaningful, each country's average personal debt has to be directly linked to each country's average wages, and then only directly compared using that countries individual currency?" US $45.5K UK $30.4 AUD $22.5K United States $45,725 United Kingdom $35,634 Australia $36,226 ^ Data refer to the year 2007. World Economic Outlook Database-October 2008, International Monetary Fund. Accessed on October 8, 2008. While I'm not debating household debt is in uncharted territory, the point I'm trying to make is Australia isn't as bad off as they (the Australian media) keep painting. People seem to be forgetting "hype" sells papers ! "However this didn’t quite work out as planed. As more and more two income households came into the picture, all this did was push house prices up. Today, prices are so high that in the majority of cases two incomes are a mandatory requirement to service the mortgage. If one member of the household loses his or her job, then it’s more than likely than not, they will default on the mortgage. " Unemployment is currently 4.4 . The average prediction is that rate will rise to 6-7%. We are talking about an average 2% increase. The real question is how many of that 2% are sitting on "real" household equity? Based on RMIT modeling only 4% of Australian 8.5 million households will face "negative equity" this year. The idea above that "it’s more than likely than not, they will default on the mortgage" is nothing more then hype... most will be able to walk into a bank and refinance. Cheers Matt
  5. In reply to: mminion on Wednesday 31/12/08 01:48pm Further to the below Average household debt in the UK is £21,000 for every man, woman and child. If you convert that from GBP that's $30400 USD So to keep score in USD US $45.5K UK $30.4 AUD $22.5K I'll happily concede that the AUD has dropped dramatically in the past 3 months, that said even at it's highs we still would have placed 3rd in this ranking. Cheers Matt
  6. In reply to: Duster on Wednesday 31/12/08 12:39pm Duster, The value of the land it sits upon is priced (to a large part) into the housing cost. To recoup that cost they build higher in HKG vs SYD. That aside I do get your point. Db76, "Australia's total household debt is currently approximately $650 billion – about $32,500 for every man, woman and child." First lets convert AUD to US. $32,500 AUS = $22,500 US America's household debt is currently $13.91 trillion. America's population is 305 million. By my maths that's $45,500 for every man, woman and child (lots of big numbers happy to be corrected if there is a mistake in the maths) $45K vs $22K ... that figure alone show the s**t the US have got themselves into. Cheers Matt
  7. In reply to: db76 on Wednesday 31/12/08 10:22am "australians are the most over-leveraged across all types of debt" Want to supply some facts/figures to back that up ? I think it's yet another example of twisted statistics and media hype. Worth repeating part of a post I made back on the 01/08/08 QUOTE Further more, Australian property is not the most expensive in the world… again it’s about twisting statistics. That headline is based on the "Median Multiple" statistic. (average household price / average household income) Australia = 6.3 Canada = 3.1 Ireland = 4.7 New Zealand = 6.3 United Kingdom = 5.5 United States = 3.6 Now I'm sure people have seen this statistic, but how many know how it's gathered ? One of the first issues in this statistic is they don't count areas under 50,000 people (there goes a lot of Australia and New Zealand towns), the second issue is the not all countries are surveyed (i.e. Hong Kong) for the simple reason, it gets too hard to gather statistics "world" wide. (the above report didn't even include European countries for that matter) Just compare Hong Kong to Sydney as an example… 2 Bedroom unit, CBD district. It's a simple 2:1 ratio… $530,000 - $545,000 303 CASTLEREAGH STREET, SYDNEY - Size: 110 sqm Approx (I've converted this to 1184 ft² ) - Lock up garage: 16 sqm Approx HK$ 7,980,000 (I've concerted this to $1,089,000 AUD) 15, Arbuthnot Road, Central, Hong Kong 780 sq.ft. 2 Bedroom(s), including 0 Ensuite 1 Bathrooms Combined Living and Dining Room Google both if you want to look at each (neither have nice views so it's not a "view" your paying for). Do the same for Paris, London, New York… the idea that Australian property is super expensive is based on twisted statistics. Size is the other issue, the average Australian block is one of the largest in the world, if you focus on flats/units (so plain square meters of living space) you start to have something to evenly compare with… and once you start comparing with that in mind you see figures like the above (Hong Kong VS Sydney) Anyhow back to work… got to pay off the mortgage Cheers Matt
  8. QUOTE (wolverine @ Tuesday 30/12/08 07:01pm) http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27...756-462,00.html Melbourne Business School professor Mark Crosby. "In a gloomy new year outlook, economists are predicting unemployment could rise through 2009 from its current 4.4 per cent level towards 8 per cent, costing a further 400,000 people their jobs" Citigroup economist Paul Brennan "Citigroup economist Paul Brennan expects the RBA to cut to a historic low of 3 per cent in its published cash rate, citing his bank's forecasts that Australia's economy would record nil growth over next year and unemployment would peak at 6.7 per cent in 2010." The Australian Government "Treasury has forecast that number to creep upwards to 5 per cent next year and 5.75 per cent in 2010." Not surprising the story focuses on the "worse" of the 3 predictions, you have to sell papers I guess http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif ________________________________________________________ So three predictions... high 5's, 6's or 7's (the story states "towards 8 per cent" which really means high 7's). If you take the average figure of high 6's you are talking about 200,000 jobs. 200,000 jobs doesn't equally "the sky is falling" journalism that's occurring now does it ? Lets kill two birds with the same stone... In 2007 there were 285,200 births registered in Australia (to make things easy lets round that up to 300,000) Government fund 6 months maternity leave (Australia women have been demanding this for years, and it's a vote winner) While I accept it's not a 1:1 ratio, the scheme will create a employment hole. This hole will at least half fill the predicted rise in "unemployment". As for the other half of the hole… well we need to accept the good times and the bad. Cheers Matt
  9. OK cancel Christmas... Santa has been arrested by Imperial Storm troopers. SANTA'S FACTORY, North Pole (Agencies) - An Imperial Stormtrooper commando broke into Santa's Factory on the North Pole yesterday evening, killing an undetermined number of elves, arresting the owner and confiscating his sled. Joe Kwazansky, local spokesman for the Evil Galactic Empire in Los Angeles, appeared in a press conference this morning confirming the rumors of an Imperial takeover of Christmas' celebrations. "The Emperor wants to assure His subjects that Xmas will continue as planned. The pug-nosed fatso, however, will pay for his crimes," Mr. Kwazansky said amid the palpable shock in the press corps. Apparently, the arrest has occurred in connection with earlier reports on the manufacturing and stealth placement of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Answering questions about the causes of this assault and Santa Claus' detention, Mr. Kwazansky pointed out that Imperial Intelligence had undeniable proof of Santa's production of WMDs at his factory located near the North Pole. "He is also a perv, you know," he added, "a guy who goes around his house clad in red velvet and has underaged boys assisting him all day long. Illegal sex? Forced labor? You gotta be kidding. We have the patent on forced labor too. Ask the wookies." Later in the press conference, Mr. Kwazansky, 48 years old and still living with his parents, revealed that Santa may have been stealing industrial secrets from Imperial-exclusive defense contractor Sienar Fleet Systems. "And what's with the bloody flying reindeers anyway?" he said, "how the Force do they fly? I bet they have Twin Ion Engines up their butts. That's classified technology, people. Fatso is finishing his days in the Great Pit of Carkoon, I tell you." The spokesperson left the stage laughing maniacally, muttering something about how Santa was going to suffer for all those years of coal back at the Imperial Orphanage. Commenting on the strike, UN's North Pole representative Kalle Jugercømmandersson said that "we don't understand this act of unprovoked agression. The North Pole has been weapons-free since 1959, when Timmy the Polar Bear was killed by a drunk seal using a 38." Then, he started sobbing, crying "and we are not little boys! We are little grown men!" out loud. Lord Darth Vader was unavailable to comment at the time of this report. Cheers Matt
  10. It makes me wonder if the guy is very smart or plain dumb
  11. Nothing to worry about, the U.S. Financial Meltdown is all part of their plan.. lol http://io9.com/5052047/did-aliens-cause-th...ancial-meltdown Cheers Matt
  12. QUOTE (nohoper @ Friday 19/09/08 11:42am) Thanks for that Nohoper... "Goldman Sachs economists' optimistic scenario is a couple years of mild recession or painfully slow economy growth." I think India and China the real X factors, if they can keep their s**t together and encourage internal growth that may offset any major drop from decreased US demand. If this occurs then "slow economy growth" will be US based (and not a global one, aka Japan 1990's) In 20, 50 years time I don't believe this will be referred to as GD2 (Great Depression II), it will be seen as the "shift" in power from the US/Europe to China/India. On a side note, I saw Billy Boy (Bill Gates) is top of the heap again as the markets have hurt Warren... as they say the geeks will inherit the earth http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif Cheers Matt
  13. In reply to: nohoper on Thursday 18/09/08 07:01pm Hi Nohoper Your question yesterday "Ok, the question I have for you and others is this - if you are in their position, what would you do? What are the alternatives? They can't let the whole thing just crushing down on everyone?" Sorry took the night off... Think of the issue as a medical emergency. 1. Get the patient out of immediate danger (Temporally ban shorting) 2. Stabilise the patient (Support the system by boosting liquidity) 3. Work out a short term treatment plan (Change the mortgage laws in America) So steps 1 & 2 have occurred (British & Russian) but it's all useless unless they change the mortgage laws in America… they need to change the laws to match the British system (which inturn is the same system as we have here in Australia) Cheers Matt
  14. In reply to: nohoper on Thursday 18/09/08 05:08pm Agree Citigroup seems to scream "watch out below" At 81.7 Billion IMO it's too big for someone to takeover... for the moment. There's a really good post over on the "Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?" topic by mullokintyre that explains one of the "quirks" of the US real estate system (I don't think he'll mind me reposting it) QUOTE In considering the US market, there are a number of natable differences to AUs. First of all, US loans are generally longer term - as in 30 years. Secondly, interest payments are tax deductible in the US. Thirdly, the loans use their basis as the LIBOR rate (the London interbank rate), plus a margin. Thus, although the FED was cutting rates like there was no tomorrow, the LIBOR rate was going up, so the homeowners in difficulty got no relief. Finally, in a quirk of the US system, if one defaults on a loan, you can just walk away with a lousy credit rating, but the lenders can't come after you to cash in your other assets to repay the loan Thus, there is a very large market in mortgage insurance. It is these mortgage insurance bonds that are currently under great scrutiny. There have been examples of people with high incomes who are quite financially capable of paying of their loans, but with the fall in home prices, their equity had dropped to a level below the loan. Hence, they decide to walk away. The above really shows how the US banks / mortgage insurance brokers are stuffed.... Cheers Matt
  15. http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45027000/gif/_45027679_market_values466.gif Interesting but very valid way of showing before and now snapshots. Cheers Matt
  16. QUOTE (nohoper @ Thursday 18/09/08 12:09pm) What came first, the chicken or the egg ? Is the fear causing people to short, or is the shorting causing the fear ? To me it's a bit of both and you then need to throw in the internet. The rate and speed that fear spreads has increased dramatically with the net. I think the point I'm trying to make is while we can compare past and now, now has a number of factors unseen in past events. On a different note, was watching Dateline last night caught a bit about the new oil boom in North Dakota. "This is T. Boone Pickens. He made millions drilling for oil and turned that into billions as a corporate raider. Pickens says America must face reality and end its reliance on foreign oil. And he's funding a $58 million campaign to convince America. T. BOONE PICKENS COMMERCIAL: Did you know, back in 1970 we imported 24% of our oil, today it is almost 70% and climbing every minute. Over 700 billion dollars are leaving this country to foreign nations every year. Four times the cost of the Iraqi war." I think this current market drop has one positive... Americans are waking up a little, $700 billion reason to fast track "non-oil" tech and I've seen one weird example of that, "US Military Wants Airplanes to Run On Coal" (yes coal) http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/sto...s/COAL09128.xml Cheers Matt
  17. QUOTE (nohoper @ Wednesday 17/09/08 12:54pm) Well it broke through that 10800 but at 10609 it's still within a percent or two (so within tolerance) Lets be frank, in my opinion the issue is shorting.... 1987, Tech Bubble, 911 shorting didn't play any big role but it sure is at the moment. Saw this quote today: "The fear is, 'Who is next?'" said John O'Brien, senior vice president at MKM Partners. "It almost feels like people scour the books and say, 'Who is the next likely target that we can put a short on?' and that spreads continuous fear." In past falls it was all about "risk minimisation" but today it seems more about "still making money" Danville's comment about his brother seems to ring true. It seems half of America is pretending this isn't happening and the other half is trying to short and make money from the fall. 10000 here we come…. Cheers Matt
  18. QUOTE (nohoper @ Wednesday 17/09/08 12:54pm) Hi Nohoper, Thanks for the chart, 10800 does look to be the low this time but the gut is telling me otherwise (i.e. it's going to drop below that) Cheers Matt BTW Someone emailed two interesting photos today... One has to wonder what the NYSE will look like in 70 years from now. http://io9.com/assets/images/io9/2008/09/stockmarketcrash29.jpg http://io9.com/assets/images/io9/2008/09/82839328.jpg
  19. I see Bank of America was down -21% but Merrill's was steady at +0.06% From Washington Post 15/09 "Both boards approved the deal and it was being reviewed by lawyers late last night, the sources said. Bank of America will pay about $29 for each share of Merrill Lynch stock, which closed at $17.05 on Friday. A formal announcement is expected this morning." From Yahoo today (11mins ago) Bank of America shares fell $7.19, or 21 percent, to $26.55 on Monday, and Merrill shares rose just a penny to $17.06. Under terms of the transaction, Bank of America would exchange 0.8595 shares of Bank of America common stock for each Merrill Lynch common share. Based on BofA's closing price of $26.55 Monday, the deal was valued at less than $40 billion, or $22.82 a share. Given the deal is based on a % exchange (0.8595) and not a fixed price why do I get the impression it's in BOA's interest to keep the fall going? Cheers Matt
  20. mminion

    BEER!!

    In reply to: Damon22 on Friday 05/09/08 09:40am Hi Damon22, "Superb boutique beers tasted recently in New Caledonia were the Blonde, Braun and Ambree brewed there (Brasserie, Noumea)" I'd have to agree with that, did you try the food upstairs ? The pizza's with crepe like bases go down just as good as the beer http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif Cheers Matt
  21. mminion

    BEER!!

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/0d/Duvel_and_glass_sunday.jpg/450px-Duvel_and_glass_sunday.jpg Cheers and bottoms up Matt PS It's not too early to be thinking about beer right ?
  22. In reply to: henrietta on Tuesday 02/09/08 07:08pm Hi Henrietta Chrome uses the same rendering engine as Safari (so your not missing much) And forrestgump, I agree… I'm using Chrome right now as well Cheers Matt
  23. Within 48 hours, we closed the gap and now surging ahead http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif http://www.compareshares.com.au/vote_forum.php Cheers Matt
  24. QUOTE (mminion @ Monday 18/08/08 11:04pm) "I've sure over the next week the gap will close" It seems I've totally misjudged the community spirit, from 4% to 21% in less then 24 hours http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif http://www.compareshares.com.au/vote_forum.php Cheers Matt
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