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mminion

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Everything posted by mminion

  1. First off Mick, "If your mortgage goes up by $20 a week, your wages may need to go up by $40 a week or more just to break even." Sorry but IMO your making the same error lot of people in this topic make, single income vs dual incomes. The Australian family structure has changed in the last 10-15 years hence people need to factor that into their models (once you do the property prices start to make more sense, those that don't still can't work out why the bubble hasn't already popped) Mags, spend a couple of minutes and discover how the ABS come up with that statistic (just like unemployment I believe you will be shocked at how the data is obtained). To quote from the ABS "The 2006 Census also identified 830,000 vacant dwellings, representing 9.85 per cent of the total dwelling stock." I've covered this before (i.e. listed multiple factors that account for this figure) but IMO it's worth posing the question… 1 in 10 dwellings, how many here truly believe this figure? Mags ? On any given Saturday, find an average street with houses on both sides, walk down the odd side of the street starting at number 1 and stop at number 11. Did you pass a house that looked vacant ? Walk down to number 21, did pass 2 houses that look vacant ? What's more likely… 1 in 10 houses are vacant OR 1 in 10 houses failed to complete the 2006 Census ? Care to back that with some sources? The average data (excluding VIC) I've seen shows an increase in "people per dwelling" over the past 10 years. Cheers Matt
  2. It's TA like that, that IMO gives TA a bad name. The whole thing reads like he's been locked in a room for months with market data but nothing else. What’s more important to a company’s SP… profit/loss or index drag?. With this in mind IMO it’s important to at least review the news and/or perform simple FA on those companies that make up the index (McHugh doesn’t seem to factor the general business news and/or government policy). IMO a prime example of looking at the numbers and not the news. The major difference between 1930 and 2009 is government intervention. The debt caused by this intervention will have its own effect, but not in any of the timeframes McHugh seems to be looking at. TA works great if most the factors remain the same… Cheers Matt
  3. 27-07-2009 4139.60 4,171,086,644 996,753,458 24-07-2009 4089.80 5,280,990,499 1,185,100,549 23-07-2009 4064.10 6,101,109,857 1,190,213,440 22-07-2009 4068.50 4,757,045,872 1,047,096,742 21-07-2009 4050.70 3,909,542,528 915,770,813 20-07-2009 4050.30 3,345,698,325 818,167,644 17-07-2009 4000.80 3,503,318,159 846,357,955 16-07-2009 3995.60 5,092,259,521 1,103,972,917 15-07-2009 3924.50 3,787,024,282 926,942,838 14-07-2009 3867.10 3,582,922,435 794,070,067 13-07-2009 3737.50 3,048,830,346 744,299,894 16 & 17 (within 5 points) 20 & 21 (within 5 points) 22 & 23 (within 5 points) Looking back to me it seems VERY controlled, that said today seems to have run a little to hard (I'd suggest tomorrow a close between 4130-4150) Cheers Matt
  4. Hi Blueice, The Dow Futures are improving (wouldn't be surprised to see it go positive around lunch time here) Microsoft is down (IMO) because they are between main product launches hence low sales (Windows 7 is launched next month) Amex is down (IMO) because people are paying cards late. Worth nothing AMEX has been a bright star on Wall Street for the last 6 months hence people have been looking for anything slightly negative to pull it back. Next week will be the real key, month end and TA wise (happy for other TA views, Arty ?) if we can hold these highs until then I think its "all on" Cheers Matt
  5. http://twitter.com/reliveapollo11 Minute by minute (plus 40 years) transcription of the radio chatter (including links to the photos they took at that exact time) BTW, It's not been well reported but Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) took a number of high-resolution photos of the Apollo landing sites (this between July 11 and 15, 2009). Maybe final proof to those that believe it was all filmed in Hollywood. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/LRO/mult...pollosites.html Cheers Matt
  6. And what after ? if it opens at 3850 and closes 3900 we talking a run to 4000+ ? Cheers Matt
  7. In the real world it’s a risky suggestion to ignore ANY statistic, ignoring the ABS because you don’t like what your hearing… well that your decision. Jobs Ads.. So we are now following the ANZ job index? Two words, the internet. As I said back in April No problems, how about quantifying that the above means to you (to most people the above means, 30%+ in 3-4 years) Cheers Matt
  8. Ditto on the above... markco2 seems to believe “Armageddon†is still yet to happen. The ASX (and other world indexes) bounced in Feb, but if you read the papers you would never know it (because armageddon sells papers hence that’s how the issue is still being reported). “Australian Labour Market Statistics, Jul 2009†(released last Friday by the ABS) Part-Time employment INCREASED this quarter (0.6%). Now Part-Time employment as a proportion of total employment increased as well (0.2%) but a rate less than therefore it can’t be claimed that the employment increase is only due to jobs changing from “full†to “part†time. Colossal ? When you compare debt to GDP, Australia's debt isn't that great. If you want to see colossal debt, compare America’s debt to GDP. Markco2 we’ll see who’s right in 6 months time. Cheers Matt
  9. A extra 2% increase in unemployment (i.e. to the predicted 7.5-8.0%) would be far from effecting the "norm". If anything the predicted 7.5-8.0% from early this year is starting to look a little off the mark (i.e. high) given speed of correction in most world economies. Without wanting to sound rude, casuals can't afford to buy houses. Any increase in casual unemployment is more likely to affect rental prices/demand (which is already high). Both the rental & FHO on average share the same property sector (low price housing) hence FHO are currently IMO soaking up any drop in rental property demand. As the FHO grants finish, demand for rental will increase… it's see-saw. It's worth browsing over the last 12 months of this topic, based on the claims of some… unemployment should be double digits now, housing should be down 15-20%. We also had to follow the US/UK housing price fall…. just because. As I've said a number times, the Australian housing market is controlled by two major factors, employment and interest rates. It looks more and more unlikely that unemployment will spike this year, and interest rates look to remain steady (bar banks increasing to maintain profit margins). At some point people will accept dual incomes into their pricing models… until then I suggest buying a pillow (to lower the damage caused by head banging) Cheers Matt
  10. Australian Median House Prices Recouping Losses, Review Reports July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s median house price has recouped almost all of last year’s losses and is nearing a new high, the Australian Financial Review reported, citing RP Data. The median national house price rose to A$468,819 ($378,337) in May and is A$520 short of the peak reached in February 2008, the newspaper said. Prices in all capital cities except Perth have risen since January, the report said. __________________________________________________________________________ Back in Feb I posted a Four Bears graph, it's worth noting its been updated and the picture is worth a thousand words (focus on the blue line) http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-real.gif Cheers Matt
  11. mminion

    VCR

    $10m to buy and another, $15-20m to support over the next 12 months. I'm surprised a VC hasn't picked up the pieces, with an aim to on sell within the next 1-2 years. Cheers Matt
  12. Gibraltar Airport's single runway is one of very few in the world (and certainly the largest example) to intersect a public road. That's correct: a public road. Operating similarly to a train crossing, traffic travelling along Winston Churchill Avenue in Gibraltar is brought to a halt each time a plane either lands or takes-off. http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3555/3594298451_cc193d59c7_o.jpg
  13. Snatch Wars P.S. Take your mind out of the gutter, it's not what you think.
  14. mminion

    AAH

    Hi Canava (and others) To be blunt, if you want to ride on the results of 621 (and other AAH IP) you could buy some Cephalon shares. If "compulsory acquisition" fails there's other plays (asset strip, merger etc)... the game was "really" over at 51%. As to other opportunities, given my position I don't publicly post like that anymore. Cheers Matt
  15. mminion

    AAH

    Do yourself a favour, It's over... accept it and move on. Any challenge will take a lot of time, cause stress and burn money. Even if the challenge is successfully it's highly likely the decision will be appealed by the other party. Legal action like this takes YEARS to resolve. The market is full of opportunities, don't miss them by stewing over the past in court. Cheers Matt
  16. "I mean who calls up brokers these days to do transactions when you can simply do it online quicker" It's a risk thing.. Trader: Buy XXX, 10000 @ 13.20 Operator: Placing Buy XXX, 10000 @ 13.20 Operator: Sorry the SP is @ 1.32 Trader: Yeah sorry, I meant Buy XXX, 10000 @ 1.32 Trader: Bought XXX, 10000 @ 1.32 If the SP is REALLY 1.32 and not 13.20 the back and forth normally points that out. Also points out incorrect codes and volumes. When your doing dozens of trades per day, the numbers start bluring together. Cheers Matt
  17. Disappointed with last night episode (the final). The whole series IMO focused too much on the personal issues.... and too little on trading/making money. Cheers Matt
  18. http://www.beanangel.com.au/images/merc/bunnings.jpg One day, in line at the company cafeteria, Joe says to Mike behind him, 'My elbow hurts like hell. I guess I'd better see a Doctor.' 'Listen, you don't have to spend that kind of money,' Mike replies. 'There's a diagnostic computer down at Bunnings Hardware.Just give it a urine sample and the computer will tell you what's wrong and What to do about it. It takes ten seconds and costs ten dollars .... . . A lot cheaper than a Doctor.' So, Joe deposits a urine sample in a small jar and takes it to Bunnings. He deposits ten dollars, and the computer lights up and asks for the urine sample. He pours the sample into the slot and waits. Ten seconds later, the computer ejects a printout: 'You have tennis elbow. Soak your arm in warm water and avoid heavy activity. It will improve in two weeks. Thank you for shopping @ Bunnings.' That evening, while thinking how amazing this new technology was, Joe began wondering if the computer could be fooled. He mixed some tap water, a stool sample from his dog, urine samples from his wife and daughter, and a sperm sample for good measure. Joe hurries back to Bunnings, eager to check the results. He deposits ten dollars, pours in his concoction, and awaits the results. The computer prints the following: 1. Your tap water is too hard. Get a water softener. (Aisle 9) 2. Your dog has ringworm. Bathe him with anti-fungal shampoo. (Aisle 7) 3. Your daughter has a cocaine habit. Get her into rehab. 4. Your wife is pregnant. Twins. They aren't yours. Get a solicitor. 5. If you don't stop playing with yourself, your elbow will never get better! Thank you for shopping @ Bunnings
  19. Moosey, Are you watching a HD (High-definition), SD (Standard-definition) or Analog channel ? Do you have SS (surround sound) ? In short the issue is SS verse plain stereo and the switching between the two. Most HD/SD shows are broadcast in SS. Most Australian commerical are broadcast in stereo. You can get the same issue when you flick from TEN HD (now called "One") to ABC 1 or SBS 1.... as 9-10 times you are flicking from SS to stereo sound. To "hear" SS audio better on TV's that only have two speakers people turn the volume up..... bang comes a stereo AD and yes it's louder then the show. If you have SS setup (or you have a TV that "auto adjusts" volume) you won't notice the issue. Cheers Matt
  20. Started to think he was averaging down when I heard "Buy 800"... poor fellow. Cheers Matt
  21. Hi Forest & BSA, Have to agree it was interesting viewing. Did you also catch "Million Dollar Traders" on SBS last night ? In short they gave group of people a million dollars, fortnight of training (many TA) and the show follows them for two months, of which just happened occur at the height of the credit crunch. http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=13052 Cheers Matt
  22. Anyone else watch it last night? (the link above will start last nights show) At one point I was screaming at the screen, "Just buy something" Cheers Matt
  23. Sorry without wanting to sound rude, comparing "Housing Debt" with the GDP doesn't really show anything. It's like walking into coffee shop, asking all the staff what they owe on their home and then comparing that against the shop's yearly turnover. Debt isn't a "bad" thing, the issues is (IMO) the ability to service that debt. A better stat would be to compare "Housing Debt" and "Household income" between the two countries. Cheers Matt
  24. "Home mortgage debt outstanding" & "Housing Debt" are two different figures, it's just one of the many differences between how the Federal Reserve & the ABS collect/display data. I've highlighted this before in this topic. Matt
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