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Posts posted by mminion

  1. I saw an interesting comment (elsewhere) the other day,


    Australia's population is growing by nearly 2% each year. Fact is, its going to be pretty hard for any asset bubble to deflate under those circumstances. The only other OECD country with population growth near 2% is Israel, and funnily enough, the only OECD country with asset prices still 300% higher than they were 10 years ago is Israel.


    Anyone that's followed this topic for the last couple of years knows I'm big in the idea compare apples with apples, not apples with oranges.


    I also came across the following comments, the RP data blog (in response to Jeremy Grantham rolling into Australia last month pushing the line that prices had to fall 42 per cent to revert to trend)


    The big difference between Australia and most other parts of the world is that we are a highly centralised society with only six states and two territories. 60 per cent of all home sales take place across 0.5 per cent of the land mass. Based on ABS figures to June 2009, the capital cities account for an estimated 14,039,373 persons of a total of 21,955,256 persons nationally. This means that about 64 per cent of the Australian population lives within the capital cities with an estimated 55 per cent of the population living within the four largest cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth).


    When you compare this to other countries you can see there are fundamental differences not just in the size of Australia's population but the fact that it is so heavily centralised. As some examples:


    In 2007 the USA had an estimated population of 302.2 million persons, the 20 largest cities in the country, in terms of population, accounted for just 10.7 per cent of the population. The 50 largest US cities account for only 15.5 per cent of the population. Sydney makes up an estimated 20.5 per cent of Australia's population.


    There are similar results in some European nations. Although the data is a little older, 2001 Census data shows the United Kingdom had a total population just over 49 million persons. Whilst London accounted for 14.6 per cent of the total population, the 20 largest cities accounted for 27.7 per cent of the population. Sydney and Melbourne combined account for an estimated 38.7 per cent of Australia's population.


    In Germany, 2002 statistics show the estimated population was 82.4 million persons. The capital Berlin accounted for 4.0 per cent of the country's total population whilst the 20 largest cities accounted for 17.8 per cent of the population.


    Finally, 2002 statistics for France show that the 20 largest cities in the country account for 11.7 per cent of the total population.


    Getting the idea? As a population we spread ourselves very thinly across the country. Obviously we can't all move to the desert in the middle of Australia but there are plenty of habitable regions of the country which are under populated. 64 per cent of the country's population on 0.5 per cent of the land mass is completely nonsensical. The capitals are also experiencing the highest increases in population, which creates a major strain on infrastructure in these regions and leads to higher property prices (particularly when new housing construction is in such short supply). As an outsider looking in you can understand why international experts believe we are in a housing bubble but when you look beneath the surface the fundamentals of the Australian property market are very different here.


    We are also yet to mention the fact that Australia's population grew at a rate of 2.1 per cent during the year to September 2009. With an addition of almost 452,000 residents to the population during the last year where do you think they are going? They go where the jobs areÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ and where are the jobs? The jobs are where 64 per cent of the population is, in the capital cities. More accurately, most jobs are in Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser extent Brisbane and Perth.


    Add to the mix the fact that unemployment has peaked much lower than forecast and continues to improve, the Australian resources sector is once again warming up, mortgage arrears remain well under 1 per cent and, as a nation, we remain undersupplied in housing by more than 178,000 dwellings. With all this in mind, the outlook for Australian home values doesn't appear to be anything like a 42 per cent correction. Our view is that home value growth is likely to moderate, tracking household income growth which is likely to be circa 5 per cent over the coming year


    This just yet again shows that one has to "look beneath the surface the fundamentals" if you wish to predict how Australian housing prices will act.


    Back 7 months ago I predicted 4% growth for 2010, the above comments are predicting 5%... the media swings from boom to bust monthly (it sells papers) as they say time will tell.


    Anyhow all something to think about




  2. I'd call your broker's IT suppport and have a chat.


    There have been a number of recent PDF security issues and maybe they have coded WebIress to "act" like this (that said if that was the case I'm surprised there aren't more people complaining). It could be they have coded it to act that way IF a earlier version was installed i.e 9.1 or 9.2 (and hence a greater security risk)


    Before downgrading, I'd make sure your using the lastest version of Reader (9.3.3)




  3. Hi Brierley,


    Couple of Q's first...


    "Go offline" please explain this in a little more detail, does the connection drop (have a look at the debug screen) or does it simply look like it freezes ?


    Does the PDF open up in Adobe Reader or the browser (i.e. FireFox) window ? (e.g. do you see Adobe Reader in the bar across the bottom of the screen).


    Open Adobe Reader, Click "edit" (in the menu at the top), Preferences, Internet... is "Display PDF in browser" ticked ? (unlick it, click OK at the bottom, and try to recreate the issue and see what happens)




  4. Arty,


    Looking at long term support lines is little simplistic, especially if you also look at volume (which is well below normal). There's no doubt it's in a down trend, but then again so is most of the market.


    As for the financials I can see.. Increasing revenue & decreasing Costs. It's no poster child but financially it's at least moving in the right direction, slowly. Trim some costs, promote a little better and you may even start to break even.



  5. Hi Duster,


    I have the 500D (the earlier version of the 550D). The major difference between the 450-1000 and the 500-550 is the ability to record 1080 HD video and some better ISO levels. If she is doing graphic design I'd suggest HD video is really useful (I'd suggest she would do alot of multi media in projects).


    The big thing with SLR's is the len/s are just as important as the camera body, so if you get a 500-550 get the dual lense kit (or the body only and buy a 18-200mm lens)


    As for duty free, Australian duty free is simply 10% off... you'll get big price savings (i.e. 1/3+) if you buy it duty free in a OS airport (like Singapore or Hong Kong). Further to that I can point you to a number of good HKG camera shops that sell online via ebay and paypal (long term gold ebay sellers, they don't rip people off as they live and die based on a 99%+ feedback score) and if you go that way it's closer to almost half the price (the price difference is simply Canon trying to make more $ from the Australian market, it all is the exact same product).


    If you want a hand give me a IM




  6. Guys this is what gets me.. is it really that hard to give a source ?


    "Ok. Median wage in Adelaide $38,000 P.A.

    Average house price? $405,000:


    All the figures (including ABS) show income for Adelaide above $50K



    The Demographia International housing affordability survey shows this for Adelaide: Median house price was $363,000 and the median income was $50,900 (this survey is now 12 months old, and it's based on even older information so I am more then happy to accept the house price has moved upwards 10-15% in around 2 years, but whats the chances the income dropped by 20%+ ??)


    "First home buyer does need 15% deposit (I believe CBA is 20% for first home buyer), unless mummy and daddy are going guarantor. Then they can still borrow 110%."


    Lots mummy's and daddy's are happy to go guarantor... it gets the kids OUT of the nest our days and/or give them a helping hand (some I know give the deposit they are so sick of the young adults.. err kids) so lets be real for a second, I'd say most rock upto the bank with WELL less then 20% (infact I hear about it all the time).


    As for flower, I'll look tonight.. I really love the idea that a couple require a nice HOUSE 3br and not a semi nice FLAT 2br.


    Anyhow as I said everyone keeps focusing on FHO... they are less then 1/4 of all buyers yearly, and if you look at those that either bought in the last 12 months OR want to buy in the next 12 months as a % they are a drop in the bucket if you compare with all home owners, it's like trying to suggest that someone buying $100,000 of a $1 share effects the SP, sure they do for a short period of time... but moving a stock up or down 0.05 means little to all the holder that bought at 0.90 or below (with most having an average price of half that amount)




  7. Flower,


    Your sums don't add up... lets not make up numbers to try to make a point.


    "Min deposit $80K (that rules 90% out as non starters)"

    20% deposit. What world are you living in? 5-10% is the norm


    "Max Loan 3X both salaries = $240K"

    Dual Income of $80K, Just checked and it would seem they can borrow $386,087 and $514,783


    Lets go back to basics, LIST the suburb you keep refering to. I'd personally like to double check the that $400K is the starting price for a house and that $40K is the average income (I hate round numbers, normally means someone made them up)


    I'm sure that after you LIST the suburb I'll find cheaper housing and discover the average income isn't 40K.




  8. "Matt--surely affordability is THE key to house prices?"


    Affordability effects price, but it's not the key to price (employment is). Affordability has a greater effect on the MAX price, then the on MIN price (hence it effects the upwards swing of the curve). It's also worth pointing out "affordability" wise, the media mainly focuses on FHB, affordability isn't a big issue for the other 6/8+ of the market unless they are trying to trade upwards.


    The 6/8's of the market would be effected IF unemployment rises (as some would default) but that said most Australian lenders go out of their way to make sure "default" doesn't happen (as they have a keen reason to keep the market from falling more then 5-10%).


    "$400,000 for a starter house in an area where full time wages dont exceed $40,000?"

    So that's $80K of income (people need accept dual income is the norm for FHB) all that said, people need to also accept that NOT everyone can/should/will be the owner of their own home.




  9. Worth also posting the retort..


    House price implosion claims ridiculous, says local economist



    ""The story about house prices falling tends to be pushed pretty strongly from overseas groups in particular because they don't understand the growth outlook here and the under-supply of dwellings," he said.


    "They tend to transpose what's been going on in the US and the UK to the Australian housing market and they are not applicable.


    "The stories make a good headline but they just don't apply."


    Mr Workman said Australia's unique situation of strong population growth, a housing shortage, low unemployment and historically low interest rates would keep house prices high"


    But Mr Workman said it would take high unemployment and people defaulting on loans to puncture house prices - both of which were "unlikely".


    Our jobless rate will inch toward 5 per cent ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ not the 10 per cent in the US and UK ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ and Australia has "an extremely low" rate of late debt payments, even when mortgage rates hit 9 per cent recently, he said.


    "We just went through a period where interest rates were quite high here and that did slow the housing market down, it stablised it," Mr Workman said.


    "But these large price falls people talk about really need a rise in unemployment to occur and at this stage the markets are heading in the other direction.




    The "local economist" is Michael Workman, he works for Commbank so one has to factor that into the comments.


    That said, Edward Chancellor (or the media, we all know how they do blow stories up and out of context) makes a number of contradictory points.


    i.e. He attributed Australia's "luck" to a comparative lack of competition among local banks, enabling them to avoid much of the reckless lending that occurred in the US. He also points out that the unemployment rate in AUS is half that of the US/UK


    So on one hand he compares US/UK with AUS.. and on the other lists all the differences between the two (no crazy lending, low unemployment, growing economy). It's a little like claiming apples and oranges are the same because they are both "round" and then noting that they are different colours and taste completely different.


    Unemployment is the key to all housing prices... until the needle turns the other way I don't see AUS housing prices changing direction.




  10. Woman: Oh look John the Chinese are bidding on this house, we have no chance

    Man: Yeah

    A couple of minutes laterÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦

    Auctioneer: Sold to the gentleman in the red top, congratulations

    A couple of minutes laterÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ I walk over to the man, in the red top, who is also the man referred to by the first woman as "Chinese"

    Me: Congratulations, nice house, welcome to the neighborhood

    Man in the red top: Thank you, we love the house and we really like the neighborhood, see you around (ALL SAID IN A PERFECT ENGLISH WITH AN AUSTRALIAN ACCENT)


    Because someone "looks" Chinese doesn't mean they are a Chinese national, foreign buyer and so on

  11. "It's outrageous that our uni graduates move overseas for experience and the better wages, only to find that they CAN NOT afford to move back to Australia due to it's ridiculously large rises in living costs, but mostly the house prices."


    Better wages OS, would you like to back that up with some proof ? When the AUD was trading @ 0.60 to the USD maybe but our days with the AUD doing a lot better the shoe is on the other foot. I have more then one friend that earns more now in AUS then they did in England 2 years ago (when you convert Pounds to AUD).


    As for house prices, everyone I know has a house (and I'm in my 30's). The issue is about down sizing Gen-Y's dreams, they all want their first house to be the same as their parents (or in most cases better then their parents). Houses ARE affordable, prefect houses aren't.




  12. It's REALLY unlikely it's AVG causing the issue, otherwise you'd be hearing complaints left, right and center.

    It's also REALLY unlikely it's a virus or spyware (spyware can't spy if you can't enter information into the PC).


    The issue is most likely newly installed software (so whats changed on the PC in the last week) or failing hardware.


    So lets all go back a set and ask the most important question, what are you doing just before the crash ?




  13. Pilko3,


    I suggest you READ the act and the regulations, your suggestion violates them.


    If your suggestion DIDN'T violate them you would see press release after press release informing the Australian population about how a product worked, how a product looked and so on in a different country (and hence side steping both the act and the regulations).




  14. Pilko3,


    "why wouldn't SLA here post such details in a hyped up press release announcement"


    It's been covered in this topic, multiple times, beforeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ both "Therapeutics Goods Act 1989" and the "Therapeutic Goods Regulations 1990" restrict how you can promote products like Ropren within Australia.


    All biotech's in Australia walk a very fine line between informing the market and breaking the Therapeutics Goods Act




  15. Wolverine,


    Grange... no, no, no, its a good example of how PR can overtake taste.


    Pssss... If you want something really good go hunting for a bottle of Rockford's Basket Press. You can only buy this cellar door (and they only allow you to buy one per person) but every once and a while I do see a bottle or two popup at good wine shop.






  16. While personally I like to drink the stuff.. it would seem someone has created a index to watch the stuff


    From 2005 to 2008, the General Wine Index (GWI) doubled. Since mid-2008, it has fallen 17 per cent as a result of the global financial crisis. The Russell 3000 index (which measures the performance of 3000 publicly held US companies) lost 47 per cent in the same period.


    Wines selling below $US200 a bottle saw a steady increase over the 13-year period and yielded a return of 120 percent, while those selling for under $100 a bottle generated a 170 per cent return.


    Wines selling for more than $200 and especially those over $400 a bottle, such as Chateau Petrus or Chateau Haut-Brion, had a three-to-four-fold price increase.






  17. "They want to send their children to the best schools and think property here is cheap compared to the big cities in China, where you don't get freehold ownership over land, just a 99-year lease."


    Most people don't realise that the idea that Australia has some of the world's most expensive housing markets is based largely on a single report, Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.


    The Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey only samples 265 markets and if you look more deeply at the 265 markets you'll note the survey doesn't really take many European and Asian markets into account (it pretty much focuses on the "English" speaking countries)


    If the survey took Asian countries and more of Europe into account, Australia would not rate quite so highly.


    I'm not saying Australia is cheap or undervalued, but Australia isn't as expensive as the press makes out.




  18. A minister dies and is waiting in line at the Pearly Gates. Ahead of him is a guy who's dressed in sunglasses, a loud shirt, leather jacket, and jeans.

    Saint Peter addresses this guy, "Who are you, so that I may know whether or not to admit you to the Kingdom of Heaven?"

    The guy replies, "I'm Joe Cohen, stockbroker."

    Saint Peter consults his list. He smiles and says to the stockbroker, "Take this silken robe and golden staff and enter the Kingdom of Heaven."

    The stockbroker goes into Heaven with his robe and staff, and it's the minister's turn. He stands erect and booms out, "I am Joseph Snow, pastor of Saint Mary's for the last forty-three years."

    Saint Peter consults his list. He says to the minister, "Take this cotton robe and wooden staff and enter the Kingdom of Heaven."

    "Just a minute," says the minister. "That man was a stockbroker-- he gets a silken robe and golden staff but I, a minister, only get a cotton robe and wooden staff? How can this be?"

    "Up here, we work by results," says Saint Peter. "While you preached, people slept; his clients, they prayed."

  19. Hi Balance,


    The issue is format based, i.e. NTFS, FAT32 & FAT16.


    Get a 2GB USB stick (can't be larger then 2GB, Officework have them for $8.88 )

    Format it Fat16 (Stick it into a XP/Vista machine, My Computer, Right Mouse Click it, Format)




  20. Mistagear


    It may pay to "read" the topic before making a comment. Dan's simply asking about how to start trading... it has nothing to do with starting a career in trading.


    Over the years i have literally seen thousands of contributors to stock market forums come and go, many leaving with less than they arrived with.


    I do smile when I see comments like the above (you made the same point in another topic), as they seem to imply that forums cause people to make bad investments. The real question is.. How many would have made bad investments even if they never used a forum ?. Forums arenÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t the problem, nor are they the solutionÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ they are simply yet another tool that can be used to hopefully make informed decisions.


    Dan, when you read a few books youÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll (hopefully) learn the belowÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦


    The truth is around 55-60% investors lose money. This is due to a number of reasons but the top 5 are:


    • People buy on the way down. If a share was good value at $1.00 it must be a bargain if itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s only $0.80 now.
    • People donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t like buying stock breaking into new highs. In reality a stock making new highs has a higher probability of rising than one at new lows.
    • NewbieÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s want huge profits and have little capital. Half a dozen trades later and they exit the market and swear never to trade again.
    • NewbieÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s buy stocks because their dividends are high or they have a low P/E. History has shown no correlation between low P/E ratios and winning stocks.
    • No stoploss.




  21. "I am 17" & "in school"




    Think everyone needs to stop for a second review Dan's current position before giving advise.


    What's more important... focusing on getting a good education OR day trading (in or between classes) a few thousand?




  22. "I am 17"


    That's your first issue, most T&C will state you must be 18 or older to use this product.


    Without wanting to sound rude but you really need to start with more cash.


    At most $1500 will only buy you two positions.


    $730 in CBA (the other $20 is required to cover brokerage)

    $730 in NAB (the other $20 is required to cover brokerage)


    To make a profit both will have to increase by more the 5% (and that's forgetting that UP isn't the only direction shares move).


    Save you money, paper trade, buy a couple of books on trading and apply the lessons learnt to your paper trading and see if it improves your return.





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