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JSB

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Everything posted by JSB

  1. It's a shame the proposed NRW factory didn't get a mention. Although not there myself, apparently it was let slip at the AGM by a German representative that there is a small grant to the tune of €500,000 to arrive early next week, and a possible €3m to follow in a month or so. I'm presuming this might be put towards a scoping/feasibility study? Cheers for the links as always Blacksheep, enjoy your weekend.
  2. A few back-of-the-envelope calculations: Bell Potter research report models a business case that sees margins in the order of US$100 per kWh, presumably using similar metrics in the Information Memorandum sent out to prospective investors that derived an equity valuation of the Townsville project at $217m (higher Australian labour and energy costs, and slower porgress may reduce this valuation compared to IMP3 NY). Today's binding agreements for 40% of Stage One output equate to US$120m gross profit using above numbers, or $40m MNS attributable based on current ownership structure of the project. Indicated "signed term sheet" due Q4 for debt funding therefore has a payback period of ~1.1 years. However, Benchmark Minerals outline falling cost per kWh as low as US$139 at the cell level, so gross margins of US$100 may be a little high longer term. Without knowing product specifications (cell or pack) and associated pricing it's obviously a little bit harder to determine accurate numbers. US$50 gross margin at the pack level sees a payback period of 2.2 years at current 40% output (margin inclusive of fixed costs spread over fewer units and GW output), or Magnis attributable of AU$26.6m gross profit (AUDUSD=0.75). EPS of 4.8c. Not bad for peanuts.
  3. Signed term sheet also expected this quarter for the US GF as per the latest Magnis quarterly report - highly agree with your sentiments that Gov backing and Binding OTA for product should secure the remaining funding. If anyone is heading to the AGM on Friday, would someone please be able to ask where the anode materials would be sourced from for Stage 1? I don't think Nachu will come online in time
  4. Reminds me of the failed SIO 40c buyback late last year backed by founder Gary Simonds. Floated at $2 per share in late 2014, and of the $161m raised, ~$5m went towards working capital, ~$5 for costs of the offer, and the remainder as a payday for the Simonds family office. Wonder if the McGrath buyback (if any) will be more successful?
  5. The more I look into this the better it gets. A little bit more appreciation in the SP and you've gotta think a short trade is on the cards. Implied project value of over a billion dollars based on 7 drill holes and historical data. The size and strike length of the pegmatites suggest Tantalex and even 4CE are odds on chance of finding more of the stuff - might even be a pairs trade strategy on this. T/O of 50c? $1? For an unJORCed "prospect"?
  6. JSB

    BWX - BWX LIMITED

    Probably a couple of months early on the trade hopefully a few arb funds pick up the shortfall and give me a bit of breathing space. Gonna need some serious organic growth to make those acquisitions look cheap. Hope they're not relying on halving the marketing budget again and Coles's heavy discounting to maintain that ~40% EBITDA margin!
  7. Took a look at ML's twitter for the first time this afternoon - I thought HC was bad for ramping..
  8. JSB

    GNX

    Both MNS and GNX up ~12%, both with (potential) large scale renewable projects in QLD. Wonder if Palaszczuk is set for an announcement?
  9. Got Tuesday and Wednesday available, but I should be able to run again at lunch tomorrow to get the combined Wednesday & Thursday from last week. Cant remember which clearing agent IG use, but I know Invast go through Credit Suisse so there's some potential CFD action on the sell side in the attached. IG have roughly 100k available on loan long or short but their PB doesn't have any more to lend out, so unless Anf0 works there and starts "buying inventory" (LOL!) I'd say the sell pressure over the last few weeks is genuine. Shame I can't make it to the AGM this year
  10. Here's some broker data for you Boots: All last week, and Monday this week which is the most recent.
  11. Would you look at that: "Imperium3 New York is a fully owned subsidiary of Imperium 3" "Imperium3, in which Magnis is a one third owner"
  12. I can hear the Gigglesâ„¢ already...
  13. Have they indicated how intend to supply Hiller Carbon with recarburiser in advance of the BAM facility set up? I was under the impression the agreement was synergistic with the US plant to soak up the spherical by-product. The recent equity raise presentation confirms the product specified is recarburiser, and constitutes a portion of Year 1 sales (from August '17). The same presentation flags expected start date of commercial scale production from the BAM plant of Q4 2018 Are they seeking third party manufacturing of the briquettes?
  14. 28.11% shorted? That is a huge jump!
  15. JSB

    GNX

    Hi Blacksheep, You wouldn't happen to know if there is any technical data for the projects released into the wild somewhere, would you? The feasibility study announcements released to market seem to be more high level summary than technical report, and key operating and financial metrics are missing. I saw the backdated EBITDA testing results for Stage One Kidstone Solar, but I can't seem to find anything on the economics of the Pumped Hydro or Stage Two Solar. All commercial-in-confidence perhaps?
  16. Interesting look at contrasting management strategies with this one. 4C release this afternoon showed first ever quarter of positive cashflow, flagged cutting of unprofitable revenue streams (and associated bespoke services), and conservatively re-positioned with a solid (albeit not market-darling worthy) growth profile and lean capital structure. This transition has coincided with the changing of the guard from Nick Clark to Dirk Van Hyning, with two very contrasting styles. Might be worth reading Lusch and Vargo's widely cited Service Dominant Logic for an insight into the previous strategy under Clark. 5 years ahead of the regulatory curve, and winning market share through bespoke, high switching cost solutions could have made this company an important strategic asset for one of the industry's larger players (even if only to quash the threat to market share). Clark has a nice grasp of game theory it would seem. A look at Amazon, or XRO more locally, on a broader basis shows that profitability is not the be-all and end-all if market penetration can undermine the industry incumbents - value via acquisition or market dominance at a later stage can still be created. Whether AJX had an adequate capital base to carry out a strategy like this is another question. Interested now to see growth milestones hit, and whether the more time-honoured conservative approach of organic growth, particularly with a "shift away from lower margin bespoke solutions for individual customers towards platform solutions that address significant market gaps". It may be that the recent regulatory change in the US at the federal level can achieve similar results for Alexium as the market gravitates to them, and we are seeing two roundabout ways of delivering shareholder value. It's a wait and see from me.
  17. Sounds like the development work with a European vendor announced late last year has been a driving force behind TerraE's competitiveness - the R&D into a less energy intensive process for anode materials looks to have been successful. I wonder if the European vendor is also part of the17 strong consortium?
  18. The TA guru has arrived. I hear Frank buys when Boots buys
  19. JSB

    MINING LAWS

    Cheers Blacksheep. ORR in a Trading Halt (main project involves a JV with Acacia in Tanzania) pending further details. Also; http://www.miningmx.com/top-story/30749-ba...m-goodwill-sum/ Acacia Mining is due to report its third quarter production figures tomorrow (October 20) where it is likely to address the framework agreement. Shares in the company gained as much as 39% during the day’s trade, but at the time of writing had retraced somewhat and were 12% higher on the day.
  20. JSB

    BWX - BWX LIMITED

    Yeah, might explain yesterday's rise somewhat. I daresay organic growth is slowing somewhat - recent deal with Coles has them discounting 40%, which in turn has the existing distributors discounting similar margins to compete. Touting close to 40% EBITDA margins while distributors are in forced clearance mode, especially when Sukin sales are not B2C facing - it's going to be an issue in coming periods. Sukin as its core brand is not yet offered on its most recent acquisition's platform (Nourished Life), while Mineral Fusion products are. Another US facing Natural acquisition suggests to me that the Mineral Fusion acquisition was staggeringly overpriced for the assets and “distribution network†they received ($55m goodwill on a $63m consideration(!), $826k on PPE). I’m expecting higher revenue due to bolt-ons, but lower like-for-like sales, significantly lower EBITDA margins, and big impairments over the next 12-18 months.
  21. JSB

    BWX - BWX LIMITED

    Probably jumped the gun, but with a MCAP approaching AU$700m may just be worth holding on. Wish me luck Blacksheep, going against Bennelong and Montgomery,I'm gonna need it!.
  22. JSB

    BWX - BWX LIMITED

    Oooft, my shorts are burning on this one. $7 and climbing..
  23. Further interesting comments of his in the small vs larger flake debate for spherical; Is that Interesting to Invest in Graphite Production? Mines with a higher flakes rate get their products easily placed on the market and have a higher propensity for better spheroidal materials (spheroidal is the graphite larger than 325# and lower than 100# for lithium-ion batteries). Although spheroidal material is more desirable, it generates 40% to 60% of a sub product that is difficult to put on the market, but not impossible.
  24. Tanz Gov/Acacia Negotiations Leaked Interesting comments (however credible), industry is certainly watching as these negotiations, in my opinion, set precedent. “Information from Tanzania-Acacia negotiations, our lawyers are failing to interpret some of the legal technicalities to the extent of seeking assistance from Acacia…a thief is providing legal aidâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ. “Discussions are still taking place, but our lawyers are in hard time for the Acacia lawyers have got all documents concerning the signed contracts; we need to pray hard because if the government breaches the contract we will pay a big sum of moneyâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ.
  25. Have they clarified how they are able to supply BTR with concentrate despite the exclusivity clauses in Chalieco's offtake agreement? Chalieco Offtake Announcment "...Under the Binding Offtake Agreement, Chalieco will have the exclusive right to distribute Balama flake graphite in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong, excluding Macau and Taiwan, over a three year period..." "...This exclusive arrangement is of strategic importance to Chalieco. Even though the Chinese graphite market is the largest in the world, most local customers already have established supply chains. Accordingly, Chalieco's sales strategy is to ensure it is the only player in the Territory which has access to high quality Balama graphite..." BTR Offtake "...Syrah Resources Limited is pleased to announce that it has signed a binding sales agreement with Jixi BTR Graphite Industrial Co. Ltd...." "...The agreement is for 30,000 tonnes of graphite from the Balama operation..." "...Based in Shenzen, China, BTR is the world's largest manufacturer and leader of technology development of battery anode materials for lithium-ion batteries..."
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