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JSB

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Everything posted by JSB

  1. Both Vogts and Poullas stumping up tens of thousands of dollars over the last two months to buy shares in the company - I can't see that they would have done so knowing there was going to be a significant acquisition and large cap raise incoming (why not seek SH approval to participate instead of buying on market? Poullas buys anyway, but Vogts?). Must have been an opportunity that popped up. Hopefully the raise is not too dilutionary, and specific to the acquisition - wouldn't want to see "working capital" factored in with $5.5m in the bank and a Qtr forecast spend of $1.2m. And yeah Blacksheep, impeccable timing of the Trading Halt!
  2. I can’t seem to find info on whether the IP has been used on alternate feedstocks or just Bissett Creek’s 97/98%Cg. http://northerngraphite.com/wp-content/upl...g-Agreement.pdf I’m unsure as to whether the chlorine purification route react uniformly across feedstocks with different elemental signatures? Perhaps they could licence out to SYR, unless they’re too unashamedly determine to use the HCl
  3. JSB

    QIN

    http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/inves...20180130-h0qe66
  4. Absolutely there's a spectrum to shorting with some dodgy characters/firms, but fittingly put in your article extract: Thanks Blacksheep, it's a great extract you posted, and similar to the (somewhat limited) experiences I've had shorting, both arbitrage and fundamental - I got stopped out of short position on BWX after an apparent glamorous Goldman Sachs report was released. coincidentally after they underwrote a huge capital raise for yet another 'earnings accretive' acquisition (if the company is trading on a crazy P/E ratio and it buys something on a lower P/E ratio, it's always going to be earnings accretive. Doesn't mean it's a good buy!). Long story short, it's an asymmetric trade: fixed return, potentially unlimited downside, and a structural bias against it. Learning curve for me. I see a lot of the outrage around Viceroy's reports is due to Bernarde's connections with Ferrier, but lawfully obtained or not, it doesn't alter the validity of the information in the report - it's either true or not. For the average investor, its about assessing all information possible and separating fact from fiction. Neither side is good or bad, just right or wrong. Thought you might like this one: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/viceroy-sy...49#.Wmg1z6iWZhE Irony of posting that on HC whilst bemoaning vested interests aside, it's a shame only the negative side has its assumptions and credibility scrutinised, or simply dismissed. Despite the rise, 20% of this register is still held short.
  5. Probably a little less about SYR, and more a comment on Viceroy's methods - I think we'll see more of it, for better or worse. There are significant structural disincentives within the industry to call out the "bullshit", from both sell side (incentivised by fees) and buy side (direct beneficiaries of an appreciating asset, deserved or not) - just ask Nadya Nilova: Setting aside the frivolous argument that short selling is in some way, shape, or form, "evil" (yet the artificial demand for the same stock created from the huge influx of funds into ETFs barely gets a mention), it's filling a gap in the current market. The anonymity provides protection against a manoeuvre that would otherwise have significant downside compared to what it could achieve (much like the risks involved in short selling itself). Not saying the execution was top class - the SYR specific piece had one too many meme references and highly divisive language - but I don't think the underlying premise isn't so terrible. No worse than the inverse, unfettered ramping on social media and alternate stock discussion sites. As for the accuracy of the content for both buy and sell side reports - always DYOR Worth a listen as well - Danny Moses interview (trader at Frontpoint alongside Steve Eisman). Around the 40:00 mark particularly for how the role of sell side research has evolved. And to finish - a gem from Joe Aston
  6. Probably a little less about SYR, and more a comment on Viceroy's methods - I think we'll see more of it, for better or worse. There are significant structural disincentives within the industry to call out the "bullshit", from both sell side (incentivised by fees) and buy side (direct beneficiaries of an appreciating asset, deserved or not) - just ask Nadya Nilova: Setting aside the frivolous argument that short selling is in some way, shape, or form, "evil" (yet the artificial demand for the same stock created from the huge influx of funds into ETFs barely gets a mention), it's filling a gap in the current market. The anonymity provides protection against a manoeuvre that would otherwise have significant downside compared to what it could achieve (much like the risks involved in short selling itself). Not saying the execution was top class - the SYR specific piece had one too many meme references and highly divisive language - but I don't think the underlying premise isn't so terrible. No worse than the inverse, unfettered ramping on social media and alternate stock discussion sites. As for the accuracy of the content for both buy and sell side reports - always DYOR Worth a listen as well - Danny Moses interview (trader at Frontpoint alongside Steve Eisman ). Around the 40:00 mark particularly for how the role of sell side research has evolved. And to finish - a gem from Joe Aston
  7. There's a few talking shite aren't there? The kerfuffle about IG stopping the "market making" for shorts as a very bad sign - despite the fact IG's short CFDs are dependant on the amount of borrow they can get. Good ol' HC ain't exactly the place to go for informed, robust discussion though. Not sure how the cessation of Retention Licenses impacts MNS, or why "horrifically delayed progress on a special mining licence permit" does not also warrant a warning to another company with "horrifically delayed progress on a regular mining licence permit".. I mean, we're being transparent and everything, right? Love your work Blacksheep.
  8. Uninformed dribble with no facts, just like your prior comments of a big holder getting out: Top 20, 19/01/2018 Aggregate holdings increased, if only slightly. Please keep this forum for actual discussion, not an emotional squabble.
  9. Yep, would have thought they would have learnt their lesson after the ASX put everyone into a halt back in July. Seems not!
  10. Yeah BlackSheep I agree, there still needs to be clarification on key inputs of the National Wealth and Resources (Permanent Sovereignty) Act, 2017 and The Natural Wealth and Resources Contract (Review and Renegotiation of Unconscionable Terms) Act, 2017, particularly in regards to the negotiability of the government FCI (similar to Part 2, 8. ,(3) of the Mining (Local Content) Regulations, 2018[attached]). Mention of additional tax incentives could be specifically in relation to the Additional Capital Allowance of 15% initially struck under the Income Tax Act, 2004as an incentive for foreign investment. My questions are to do with the workability of Government right to acquire up to 50% of a company subject to the quantum of tax incentives received and the existing tax mechanisms that encourage investment. The initial ACA helped stimulate FDI, but if it's going to accrue a "Corporation" FCI liability, it's a massive deterrent.
  11. No regulations for Supplement 5 & 6, just for supplement 7 which has a more direct impact on existing operations (understandably Magufuli would want that sorted first). No good for explorers/developers still waiting on ownership and stabilisation clarity.
  12. Apparently the Regulations were published overnight. Below is from Indiana Resources (IDA.ASX), although I can't seem to see any copies of the regulations published online yet. Hopefully other Tanzanian companies' in-country legal teams can filter the documents through over the coming days.
  13. Seems to be pretty consistent churn through CommSec:
  14. Could Cator be referencing the Viceroy report? The disclaimer acknowledges the piece is “for educational purposes onlyâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ, however it’s over a year old and I’m not sure how prevalent the report is amongst the wider investment community that it would warrant a comment now..
  15. Magufuli picks new minerals comissioner Perhaps some movement today for Tanzanian based, mining focused stocks?
  16. "Our 2018 production guidance of 160,000 to 180,000 tonnes based on expected demand remains unchanged." Production vs.sales guidance. With no minimum sales amounts with Chalieco now (could be as low as zero, gee, who would have expected that?), what kind of volume is spoken for? Which aspects of which current "agreements" are subject to change at the last minute, especially when the majority of agreement terms are kept CIC? Hope i don't get quoted in the AFR for asking questions Asking for educational purposes only
  17. For Boots: *Jingle BELLS, Jingle BELLS, and some I-B-AAAAAAA. He is sublime when he swipes the line, Of the high of the dayyyy!*
  18. Not a whole lot happening Boots..
  19. JSB

    LITHIUM

    Geez, there's no love lost there! I'm astounded at the apparent impact social media and the respective followings has on investment decisions in the Li space. Seems like all that is needed to be appointed a 'strategic corporate advisor' is a twitter account and a few followers! Even better if you have D-Grade Chinese connections and/or a HC Red Heart. Minemark, Mastermines, Airguide.. One only needs to look at the AGY offtaker/placement fiasco back in September, or the failure of all supposed 'players 1-7' to eventuate in the AVZ takeover raffle (project value of $1b+ on 7 drill holes!), to seriously question what sort of long term investment value is being created.
  20. Be honest Boots, how many pages did you get through before dozing off?
  21. JSB

    BWX - BWX LIMITED

    Change of Directors Interest Humble takes $13.5m and a $5.6m liability off the table, Finlay nets a cool $2m. No 604 issued, so perhaps a new insto in the shortfall bookbuild wanting a bigger slice of the pie?
  22. Have a feeling it’s Jumbo and/or Super Jumbo. I think supply agreements for the proposed gigafactories would be in the form of anode materials rather than basic concentrate (onus would be on Magnis to provide spherical quantities at guidance rather than shift technical responsibility of concentrate to spherical production onto IMP’s balance sheet [and thus MNS earns the 1/3 ownership]). With all the planned GF involvement and R&D, I can’t see them selling concentrate into the battery space. Rosatom? Western nuclear? Military? Aerospace? Pencils?
  23. Prost! Years ago, a friend made his own cannabis derived butter that went into a creamy mushroom sauce to accompany a delicious roast chicken. The question I want to know is, is a potential JV with ING on the cards?? "EverBlu did not participate in the Placement"
  24. ..and guess what comes on the back of a strong run like this with looming CAPEX requirements
  25. From announcement of binding sales to most recent:
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