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JSB

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Everything posted by JSB

  1. http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20180227-h0wr29 Of course he hasn't announced he's sold, he may not be done yet! Forums and social media may be a good channel to access contrasting viewpoints or ideas but in no way should substitute good solid research.
  2. ...could have put it in escrow if that's really what he's concerned about?
  3. Lol, didn't Benchmark invite Whittingham to be the keynote speaker at the recent Cathode event? Hmmmm, twitter opinion from a self-recognised 'unqualified' 'mining executive' with vested interests, or a Nobel nominee backing up the cobalt free chemistry with a reputation based on decades of dedicated work? Tolga might be peeved he wasn't asked :D
  4. Assuming an additional drawdown of $50m for remaining CAPEX and working capital, and a $50/kWh margin. Plant life of 15 years with straight line depreciation, and minimum debt repayment of $5m p.a over the life of the operation.
  5. Bizarrely, no comments about the Epanko Freeâ„¢ graphite . Six months to pay out compensation for relocation of residents after approval is received from the Chief Government Valuer. The RAP was submitted for approval on or before September 6, 2017. I wonder if Colonial will chip in for the next raise: http://www.afr.com/street-talk/colonial-fi...20180221-h0wep0
  6. JSB

    BLK

    I remember looking into these guys last year as part of a broader look into Lanstead Capital and their funding agreements - they look to have not learned their lesson and engaged in more round robin financing in August last year. A few months in to the two year agreement and the 3Bs seem to have stopped! Could be worth having a sniff again to figure out what Regal see (or don't, based on their recent rack record!)
  7. JSB

    BWX - BWX LIMITED

    Unfortunately, it's all academic at this stage Blacksheep taking solace in that I was on the right track
  8. JSB

    BWX - BWX LIMITED

    http://www.afr.com/markets/savage-day-for-...20180221-h0wekd The three acquisitions during the year all falling short of expectations. Based on my calcualtions (pro rata revenue and EBITDA forecasts at time of acquisition over the ownership contribution period), revenue is only 66% of forecast and EBITDA at 44%. A bit problematic as acquisition values were derived from forward-looking EBITDA ratios. There is an awful lot of goodwill on the balance sheet for those acquisitions - the forecast ROA on Nourished Life looks ridiculous based on the consideration breakdown in 8(b) of the notes. Higher sales from the customer-facing supermarket strategy seems to have displaced the existing pharmacy/chemist channel. Good luck trying to maintain margins on both an out-priced pharmacy channel, and a quick selling product on Coles' shelves. No doubt Goldman Sachs will lower price targets but still set them them well north of fair value. Lower end of forecasts will be tough from here if today's results continue.
  9. JSB

    GSW

    The article looks to have had an immediate effect on the SP
  10. JSB

    GSW

    Chanticleer not afraid to shoot from the hip. http://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/getsw...20180219-h0wbw6
  11. Still gotta bear in mind the ~$0.7m is 'dressed up" - a lot of the expenses incurred in the pro forma adjustments are arguably standard CODB - "sponsorship", "restructuring costs", "other miscellaneous expenses". They may be non-recurring, but real cash is being paid out.
  12. The operating loss only looks to be approximately $0.7m, the statutory loss was impacted by a $21.8m impairment of the Company Owned Sales business and $1.1m impairment of property management rights. Don't disagree that it's been a swindling though - a $2.10 list price was never fair value.
  13. No comment on the privatisation. Good thing he hasn’t bought shares in the last four months, he won’t have to pay up if it keeps drifting lower. http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/mc...215-p4z0g3.html
  14. Haven't read the original post Blacksheep, but where is that poster getting their information that "MNS isn't the owner of proposed factories"? I saw a moderated comment recently, with the moderation reasoning reading (paraphrased) "it is not HC's job to verify the accuracy of posts, it's up to the other side of the argument to prove it wrong". In the absence of supporting evidence, I'd call it '(down)ramping' which is against TOU, but apparently not? I thought the agreement between Magnis and Celgard, rather than IM3 and Celgard, was to do with the fact that it is only currently Magnis involved in the NRW plant and this way the agreement covers all three plants for a more closely integrated working relationship. Certainly a credible supplier to work with.
  15. Not to mention the idea that a soph/insto involved in the placement can withdraw their legally binding commitment because they don't like where the share price is at. Show me an insto/soph that does that, and I'll show you a client brokers wont deal with! Not sure when the burden of proof shifted onto disproving a claim based on no evidence. Does no 3B really mean some funding has been pulled? Or is it a case of ignorance in the process? (I did mention allotment on the 13th as the earliest, it would appear it's the 14th). https://www.asxonline.com/public/notices/20...0119.18.02.html I wonder how much they're expecting the relocation expenses to be - surely anything significant would have been raised alongside the $5m? (i.e. Magnis can pro rata fund their liability via existing cash reserves)
  16. Well done Amorga, great find for today's announcement. Few points: - Assuming they don't realise an accounting gain on purchase of assets, if the buy turns out to be a dud, the write down would currently stand at ~2% of the company's EV (non-inclusive of extra costs associated with moving/re-engineering). Feasibility study or not, risk/reward for the assets if fairly asymmetric - i have no issues with the rationale underpinning the purchase decision. - "Sophisticated investors are walking": Term sheet specified the terms of the acquisition to an extent to reach an informed decision to commit funds. Once committed, funds are irrevocable. Allotment date at the earliest was the 13th (prior to the delay) so the shares are not available to trade before that date. Some hedging may have occurred, however given that lack of an institutional register I'd like to know where a supposed 12.5m share borrow could be executed. Seems to be a bit of misunderstanding elsewhere how the process works. - Highly likely a significant proportion of the estimated $130m required funding was subject to initial outlay of the production floor and facility. I would be surprised if GWh scalability came at a fixed CAPEX of $43.3m per Gwh. - Hopefully we can soon find our more about the "Acceleration of strategic partnering with major corporations in Lithium-Ion Battery Manufacturing" Enjoy
  17. Lol, I've been told it's not so much the conference you go for but the week of partying it falls in no doubt classified as a necessary Marketing expense! Fully charged?! That's fully sick!
  18. Must have given a cracker of a presentation:
  19. JSB

    GSW

    They do seem to have had a bit of a rough time of late. Wonder if they’re still shopping the QIN stake around at $2 a pop http://www.afr.com/technology/exafl-star-j...20170620-gwuvxe If $160k is parabolic six months on, what we’re they looking at last June? The rumour mill rolls on..
  20. JSB

    GSW

    Seems to be a playbook for these situations; gloss over the inexplicably poor performance with a rumoured takeover - Justin Cameron with SRF, Frank Wilson with QIN, John McGrath rumoured to be making noise with MEA.. “A person familiar with the matter†could possibly be Joel Macdonald, could it?
  21. Sounds promising. Far better than the rubbish being spouted elsewhere, although I hope they have a more successful time ramping up: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/rea...stry#gs.crBdHLE https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/...-debt-doom.html Perhaps a working capital debt facility could be struck to finance whatever remainder would be needed for stage one plus a buffer during production ramp up. The term sheet specifies "a near-new US$200m facility for US$5m to produce 1GW" - even if not all the equipment could be used, you'd have to think it would at least knock off a serious chunk of the Stage One CAPEX. Alevo's issues seemed to stem from lack of sales, so assuming our agreements are indeed binding (hard to break the cynicism after observing the graphite market for a few years), we might already be ahead. Let's see what happens tomorrow. Thanks for the input Amorga
  22. At two and a half cents in the dollar. As great as it is for Magnis, that’s a whole lot of pain for someone else!
  23. What's not mentioned in the Street Talk article: IM3 NY is acquiring a near new US$200m facility for US$5m to produce 1GW. Production schedule for NY bought forward to Q2, 2019. How they're acquiring those assets for that price is an unknown.
  24. Term sheet is out - how woefully out of touch the head rooster, weasel, and dog whistler are $5m @ 40c. Acquisition sounds unreal but very little detail
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