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Everything posted by JSB

  1. Ouch indeed - I might be nursing this one for a while!
  2. What we've all been waiting for Blacksheep. Costs presented FOB Nacala but pricing in CIF. Shipping costs range from US$35 - $110 in the DFS (which may have changed in the last 4 years?). Looks like there's still some to do before it's cashflow positive.
  3. JSB


    Trading update provided alongside provided alongside Chairman commentary at the AGM, Operating profit guidance is up 5-15% to $10.5-11.5m on the back of $2.8m operating profit announced for Q1FY19 (up 133%) Share price up to $1.40 after consolidation in the $1.05 - $1.20 range with Shaw and Partners, Bell Potter, and Morgans lifting SP targets to $1.55, $1.60 & $1.44 respectively. Capturing strong growth in the shift to subscription service for software rather than full upfront payment but any move higher might stretch some of the multiples it's trading on (currenty ~17x EV/EBITDA and ~30-35x PE).
  4. I was under the impression that the first year's production was already under contract for the initial output guidance of 160-180kt. That the impact of the production outage was minimised by "the drawdown of existing inventory" and now a new binding sales agreement to commence immediately under a much lower revised output guidance reads as peculiar to say the least.
  5. JSB


    JSE listed producer Wescoal has emerged as a possible inclusion to the Ata consortium with an equity injection: https://irhosted.profiledata.co.za/wescoal/....aspx?id=320986 I think the IER will come back with a valuation around the 45-50c range and Ata will need to bump up the consideration to gain board approval (on the back of IER declaring it's not fair nor reasonable).Will having Wescoal on board provide the flexibilty to bump the bid?
  6. JSB


    Thanks Blacksheep. I have a feeling its a firmed up Ata Resources proposal, but will be happily proved wrong
  7. Hah, i’m probably influenced by Musk’s Teflon like abilities to avoid the full repercussions of a wayward tweet in thinking that the same will apply for Kay. https://twitter.com/taxlosstrades/status/10...5277048832?s=21 Probably sums it up best, although for Kay/Kumova to so publicly engage an anonymous account (regardless of pedigree, of which taxloss is undeniably a cut above), it’s probably not the best idea they’ve ever had.
  8. Pretty poor show of professionalism. It’ll probably get lost in the wash that is Twitter, but it doesn’t really scream ‘tier one’ when comments from an executive director are almost indistinguishable from the retail punters they pump specs to
  9. Not sure 43.17% of a project can reliably be considered a "modest amount"! Especially when it contributes to the planned production profile every year
  10. Looks like they've included inferred resources in the production profile which from memory is a bit of a no-no Optimistic concentrate pricing, pre-tax figures and no allowance for royalties made in the numbers. Gets worse on a discount rate of 15% too (which has got to be more appropriate for a DRC based project than 10%). Sensitivity analysis looks, well, sensitive. All that for a ~$200m MCAP.
  11. Takeover target Eclipx Group lays low as suitor circles
  12. JSB


    Received an indicative, non-binding conditional proposal from Ata Resources Pty Ltd at $0.35 per share. 27.5% shareholder AMED has already flagged intentions to vote in favour. 29% holder Ichor Coal yet to decide and will need shareholder approval to vote in favour and tender their shares into the offer. The scheme needs 75% of the register to vote in favour and a 50% headcount majority. Bid values the company at ~3.2x FY18 EV/EBITDA. The company is in late stages to acquire the NBC project (and Brakfontein development ready subject to signing a CSA with Eskom) to push production volumes out from 4.7Mt to 7Mt by end of CY19, which doesn't seem reflected in the bid price. Management have a pretty good track record of executing, so not entirely convinced $0.35 per share is enough to get it over the line. Indicative, Non-Binding Proposal to Acquire 100% of Universal Coal by way of Scheme of Arrangement
  13. JSB


    Anyone else following this one? Seeing strong growth in the core licencing business as a dedicated Microsoft reseller throughout APAC. Speed of onboarding new licencing customers seems to be gathering pace. Institutional top-heavy register. (Regal, Pie Funds, Australian Ethical Investment). Negatives revolve around recent management sell down at $1.18 and changes in remuneration policy aligned to operating profit rather than EBITDA - Management argues that operating profit is a better measure of management performance as it excludes one off items outside of their control (currency fluctuations, etc), but shareholders are still subject to them.
  14. Welcome back Blacksheep. Looks like the auction action was index rebalancing - MNS was removed from the ASX300 effective Monday 24 September: ASX Rebalance Announcement
  15. Eclipx Group rejects non-binding indicative proposal from SG Fleet My $2.50 call was not far off with an implied bid value of $2.52, however doesn't factor in any synergies. Bump it up by the midpoint of combined estimated synergies as per your article Blacksheep ($39.5m or 20.5%) and we're at $3.04. Happy days
  16. It’s a possibility but would they have the resources to take a meaningful enough stake and bypass their own project development?
  17. Do you know what discount rate he used for the cashflow analysis? 50% risk valuation is probably reasonable given the project is yet to get off the ground
  18. Thanks for the link Blacksheep. Picked up a (very small) parcel last week thinking $2.50 per share was par value. Happy now, but I'll be happier if SG Fleet back me up on that!
  19. JSB


    What better way to validate your trading/investing ideas by looking at Twitter! "Some guy on the internet said so"
  20. Second director to purchase on market after the downgrade: Gail Pemberton acquires 105,417 shares @ $1.90 https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180810/pdf/...72lpf2b25wj.pdf
  21. I think it's worth having a bit of a tyre kick at this one around these levels. Assuming another downgrade and flat NPAT growth YoY still puts it on a PE of 11x - day before downgrade it was ~12x the mid point of guidance (taking into account it was trading around 52 week lows). A touch under 9x currently if it meets the revised guidance. Slowdown in GraysOnline makes it look an expensive acquisition. $1.7b in debt looks bad at a glance for a MCAP of $600m, but $1.3b of it is secured against $1.63b in cars and equipment. How quickly they can liquidate the assets to repay the notes is certainly something to take into consideration. Not sure it will see $3+ again in the short to medium term, but $2.40-$2.50 looks achievable to me?
  22. JSB


    But this time it's different Blacksheep
  23. JSB


    Good article.Finlay and Humble both did sell off some $2 options back in November at $4.80 each, at the time of the buys this year I though it may have been more a show of confidence to the new institution investors that paid up back in December. Still, if they were planning their own takeover at that stage.. Should clarify my post below where I seem to have confused myself. Share purchases by a potential acquirer in the 4 month lead up period to a bid do not have to be the same price, but any proposal has to be equal or higher to the highest price paid in the lead up period. Once the offer is open however, there’s no price discrimination.
  24. JSB


    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180713/pdf/...hrf4v27502w.pdf https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/301/20...7-10-2018_0.pdf
  25. Broad brush statement of: is in contrast to: Something about playing a ball and a man, or one of the two? I would have thought a report focused around an era of fake news and it's impact on financial markets would focus on the veracity of any claims made, not the origin of the claims made and the integrity of those making it? Have you been able to find the Intellidex report Blacksheep?
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