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early birds

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  1. The energy crisis keeps getting worse. Shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for oil, deepening what was already a sizable supply deficit in crude markets, according to the International Energy Agency. “An acute shortage of natural gas, LNG and coal supplies stemming from the gathering global economic recovery has sparked a precipitous run-up in prices for energy supplies and is triggering a massive switch to oil products,” the IEA warned. —David E. Rovella ========== from bloomberg , inflation will be jacked up big time imho.
  2. Copper closed higher again $4.61 (+2.25%) following the release of an IMF report earlier this week that said, “In the IEA’s Net-Zero by 2050 emissions scenario … copper shows a twofold increase in total consumption”. Copper has broken out of the top of the five-month trend channel. Backed by tight supply and the fundamentals outlined above, the view remains for copper to retest and break of the $4.88 high with scope to $5.25. I would only reconsider the bullish view if copper were to close back within the trend channel. Silver is higher overnight at $23.56 (+2.18%), benefitting from the retracement in the U.S. Dollar and U.S. yields. We added silver to the radar two weeks ago, and as long as silver holds trend channel support and the support coming from the 50% Fibonacci near $21.00, we remain bullish looking for $24.00, before $26.00 ================= seen silver back into uptrend , my short term silver bet , seems will pay of big time before year end...
  3. The AUDUSD has extended gains to be trading at .7418 (+0.53%), enjoying the backdrop of stronger commodities, lower U.S yields, and an improved risk-seeking environment. The short-covering rally we have been expecting is well and truly underway. A break of near-term resistance at .7420/30 should then see a test of our upside target at .7480/.7500c. Beyond here, watch for a test of the 200-day moving average at .7600c. Stops on longs can be trailed higher to .7365. ================ as AAA confirmed would see AUD pop up little faster ...
  4. US stocks posted strong gains overnight, supported by solid economic data and earnings reports from companies including Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanely. The S&P500 closed at 4438 (+1.71%), the Nasdaq closed at 15052 (+1.88%), while the Dow Jones added 535 points to close at 34913. In the S&P500, the overnight close above the trend channel resistance at 4420/30 is a strong indication the correction from the September 4549.50 high is complete at the 4260 low, and the uptrend has resumed. Reinforced by the solid seasonal tailwinds into year-end, the expectation is for the S&P500 to retest and break the 4549.50 high before making fresh highs towards 4700. The ASX200 closed 39 points higher yesterday at 7311, almost 50 pts below its intraday highs after a sell order hit the market in the PM session. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a break and close above trend channel resistance at 7400/20ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open higher this morning at 7366. Resistance on the day is expected at 7395, and support viewed at 7330. ================== seems bull run will continue ........
  5. Copper closed at $4.50 (+4.10%) following the release of an IMF report that said: “the demand for some metals would increase with more certainty because they are used across a range of low-carbon technologies (copper, nickel, and manganese, for example).” The report also said, “In the IEA’s Net-Zero by 2050 emissions scenario … copper shows a twofold increase in total consumption”. Copper has broken out of the top of the five-month trend channel. Backed by tight supply and the fundamentals outlined above, providing Copper holds above support at $4.30, the expectation is for a retest and break of the $4.88 high with scope to $5.25. Natural gas closed higher again at $5.67 (3.03%). The pullback that has followed Russias pledged to increase gas supply to the continent looks to have played out for now and supply remains tight. Should Natural Gas see a sustained break above last week's $6.466 high and the 2014 $6.49 high, it could lead to a very messy move towards $10.00 coming from the high of December 2000 viewed on the monthly chart below. One to keep an eye on
  6. The AUDUSD closed higher overnight at .7373 (+0.31%). This morning at 11.30 am Sydney time, Australian jobs data for September is due to be released. The forecast is for another significant fall in employment of around -120k driven by lockdowns and mobility restrictions. The participation rate is expected to drop from 65.2% to 64.8% and moderate the rise in the unemployment rate from 4.5% to 4.8%. Providing the AUDUSD continues to hold above support .7320/00, the view remains that a short-covering rally towards .7500c has commenced.
  7. The S&P500 and the Nasdaq advanced overnight after US yields eased lower despite a higher than expected inflation figure and as Q3 earnings reporting season commenced. The S&P500 closed at 4364 (+0.30%), the Nasdaq closed at 14775 (0.77%), while the Dow Jones closed flat at 34378. In the S&P500, the sell-off from 4549.50 high is viewed as a correction. A break and daily close above trend channel resistance at 4420/30 is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, allow for the correction to deepen towards trend channel support and wave equality 4215/00 area. The ASX200 closed 8 points lower yesterday at 7272. A fall in iron futures during the Asian time zone weighing on the Materials sector. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a break and close above trend channel resistance at 7400/20ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open higher this morning at 7310. Resistance on the day is expected at 7350, and support viewed at 7275. ======================= market is trying to find direction..
  8. https://au.yahoo.com/news/new-deadly-virus-...-201453074.html new strain of Hendra virus, which is found in flying foxes, has been found in NSW. The CSIRO said the latest case was found in a horse in Newcastle. There was a Hendra outbreak in 2014 which led to more than 80 horses dying or being euthanised in Australia. “Owners and any people who interact with horses can reduce the risk of infection from Hendra virus and other zoonotic viruses through vaccination of horses or humans where available, wearing appropriate PPE, and seeking veterinary attention for sick horses,” he said. ======================== kinda remember it nearly killed the racing biz back then. i guess they will better control of this after covid-19 saga. really hate bats-------the flying rats.
  9. Crude oil closed flattish at $80.53 (+0.01%), unable to shake off the evidence of preliminary rejection from the $82.18 high the day before. Mindful that a break/close below $76.00 is needed to damage the uptrend and to indicate a deeper pullback in line with the weaker seasonality of October is underway. After testing and holding trendline support on the daily chart, natural gas closed higher at $5.455 (2.04%). Russias pledge last week to increase gas supply to the continent has helped take the sting out of a very tight market. However, should Natural Gas see a sustained break above last week's $6.466 high and the 2014 $6.49 high, it could lead to a very messy move towards $10.00 coming from the high of December 2000 ==================== nat gas keeps going higher , and winter coming in northen hemisphere good for WPL STO OSH share price. [ i'm good]
  10. with inflation jumped up big time as energy price rocked high, will RBA make a drastic move earlier ??? ===================== The AUDUSD closed higher at .7358 (+0.08%), consolidating its break above the band of resistance .7320/40 area. Providing the AUDUSD continues to hold above support at .7280/75, the view remains that a short-covering rally towards .7500c (the projection of the inverted head and shoulders bottom) has commenced =====================
  11. U.S. stock markets were in a cautious mood overnight ahead of the start of the September quarter earnings season and vigilant that surging energy/commodity prices will lead to higher inflation against a backdrop of slower growth and Fed tapering. News that China will commence a regulatory crackdown on the financial sector is not helping sentiment either. The S&P500 closed at 4351 (-0.24%), the Nasdaq closed at 14662 (-0.35%), while the Dow Jones closed 118 points lower at 34378. In the S&P500, the sell-off from 4549.50 high is viewed as a correction. A break and daily close above trend channel resistance at 4420/30 is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, allow for the correction to deepen towards trend channel support and wave equality 4215/00 area. The ASX200 closed 19 points lower yesterday at 7280 on the back of profit-taking in the Energy Sector and weakness in the IT sector. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a recovery back above trend channel resistance at 7410/20ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open higher this morning at 7280. Resistance on the day is expected at 7330, and support viewed at 7255
  12. Crude oil closed at $80.43 (+1.36%) although well off its intraday high of $82.18, potentially providing preliminary evidence of the blow-off high/overshoot into the low $80’s we have been expecting. Mindful that a break/close below $76.00 would be needed to damage the uptrend and to indicate a deeper pullback is underway. Iron ore closed at $136.95 (+9.05%), helped higher by an assumption that Chinese steel mills will increase production as power caps are lifted and after achieving deeper than expected production cuts in August and September. The best guess now is for a period of consolidation for iron ore between $110 and $160 p/t into year end ========================= seems this study sees the short term top for the oil price?? but world energy crisis still loom large atm........
  13. The AUDUSD closed higher at .7350 (+0.56%) above the band of resistance .7320/40 area. This development suggests that a short-covering rally towards .7500c (the projection of the inverted head and shoulders bottom) has commenced. To remain with the positive view, the AUDUSD needs to hold above support at .7280/75
  14. U.S. stock markets extended losses overnight as strength in energy/commodity prices inflamed inflation fears against a backdrop of slower growth and ahead September quarter earnings season. Traders are also on edge over reports that China will expand its regulatory crackdown into the banking sector. The S&P500 closed at 4361 (-0.69%), the Nasdaq closed at 14714 (-0.72%), while the Dow Jones closed 250 points lower at 34496. In the S&P500, the sell-off from 4549.50 high is viewed as a correction. A break and daily close above trend channel resistance at 4420/30 would indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, allow for the correction to deepen towards trend channel support and wave equality 4215/00 area. The ASX200 closed 20 points lower yesterday at 7300. The Energy and Materials Sector the outperformers on the back of strength in energy and iron ore prices. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a recovery back above trend channel resistance at 7410/20ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open lower this morning at 7262. Resistance on the day is expected at 7305, and support viewed at 7230 =========================== use swing trade, do more of really short term trading likes of day trade to deal these market at moment as market in-direction. imho
  15. While some have been beating the “inflation isn’t transitory” drum pretty loud of late, two Wall Street giants just proclaimed that they’re wrong. “Despite near-term uncertainty, we expect the equity market will continue to rally as investors gain confidence that the current pace of inflation is transitory,” Goldman Sachs said. JPMorgan concurred, writing that stagflation fears will soon start to fade. In other words, it’s apparently time to buy the dip =================== from bloomberg they are ramping ??? not really sure, only to look at TA these days!!
  16. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/small-bus...-200024929.html How can I apply for the small business tax offset? You don’t need to apply for the tax offset. You simply need to lodge a tax return for the year in question and the offset will be automatically calculated for you. ================ only $1000, but better than nothing i guess. "individuals who are small business entities (such as sole traders)". stock market trader included i reckon!!
  17. Crude oil closed at $79.59 (+1.65%) after trading above $80.00 for the first time since November 2014. Despite the rise in U.S. inventories last week, supply remains tight, and some overshoot into the low $80’s remains possible. A break below $74.00 would be the first sign supply tension has eased. Iron ore closed at $125.05 (+6.20%), helped higher by an assumption that Chinese steel mills will increase production as power caps are lifted, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC) urged miners to secure long-term coal supplies to generate electricity. Also helping sentiment, the CEO of Brazilian iron ore miner Vale told an industry conference that the iron ore market was “relatively tight” and it will be “more balanced” going forward.
  18. The AUDUSD closed unchanged at .7309 (-0.05%) after running into sellers .7320/40 area. The market remains heavily short the AUDUSD, and should the AUDUSD break/close above the top of the .7320/40 resistance area, I would expect to see a short-covering rally commence towards .7500c the projection of the inverted head and shoulders bottom.
  19. U.S. stock markets eased lower on Friday after a mixed non-farm payrolls report and ahead of the start of the September quarter earnings reporting season this week. The S&P500 closed at 4391 (-0.19%), the Nasdaq closed at 14821 (-0.51%), while the Dow Jones closed 9 points lower at 34746. In the S&P500, the sell-off from 4549.50 high is viewed as a correction. While the correction has thus far fallen short of the “ideal” wave equality target at 4215ish, there are signs of basing in the form of a quadruple low on the daily chart 4270/60 area. A break and daily close above 4420/30 would increase confidence the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed The ASX200 closed 63 points higher on Friday at 7320. The Materials Sector was the star of the show, courtesy of a rally in iron ore prices. Rio Tinto added 4%, BHP 3%, while FMG added 2.4%. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a recovery back above trend channel resistance at 7420ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open lower this morning at 7288. Resistance on the day is expected at 7325, and support viewed at 7255
  20. https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-worr...20211008-p58yh7 The RBA said a failure to act quickly enough to fix the vulnerabilities in China’s financial system raised the probability that an economic or financial disruption would trigger broader turmoil Bank of Queensland chief economist Peter Munckton said there are good reasons to think Beijing would be able to contain the problem. “China has a closed financial system, which means there is little foreign debt. And their regulators have plenty of power to ensure there is a resolution to any problems,” Mr Munckton said. =========================== i lean to later----that BOQ boss said.
  21. https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/patien...20211009-p58ykj The Mongolian government has warned Rio Tinto that “patience could run out soon” unless progress is made over delays and cost blowouts at the $US6.75 billion ($9.25 billion) Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. In a letter from Mongolia’s Justice Minister Khishgeegiin Nyambaatar to Rio Tinto’s copper boss Bold Baatar, seen by The Australian Financial Review, the government said it was “surprised and disappointed” at Rio’s response to a July independent report that disputed the company’s claims about why the project was two years behind schedule and $US1.45 billion over budget. “The validity of your social licence to operate in Mongolia is being questioned, and with this negative backdrop, our board members are in a difficult position despite their tireless efforts to engage constructively,” the minister’s letter said. “As time goes by without any constructive dialogues and progress, patience of the government and our people could run out soon.” Mr Nyambaatar’s intervention significantly ups the ante in the stand-off over Oyu Tolgoi, at the very moment when Rio Tinto and the government are in the throes of negotiating over an injection of extra money into the project, which they co-own. The minister’s letter stakes out a hard line ahead of those talks, saying “neither the government of Mongolia nor its people should bear any consequences of the cost overruns and schedule delays and failures of Rio Tinto to deliver the project it promised”. The two sides are at loggerheads after the independent report suggested that poor project management and delivery had caused the delay, rather than Rio’s own reasons which included unexpected geological issues and pandemic-related disruption Rio recently wrote to the government with a formal response to that report. When its letter was leaked on September 30, Rio Tinto said publicly that the document “outlines areas of the report that we accept and other parts that we fundamentally disagree with, as well as proposed next steps”. The minister said in his letter that the government was “puzzled” and “surprised” that Rio had blamed its Mongolian workforce and the COVID-19 pandemic for much of the delay, and also accused the company of not fully cooperating with the independent review. Mr Nyambaatar also noted that Rio’s in-country representative in Mongolia, Munkhsukh Sukhbaatar, had recently “questioned the integrity of the government of Mongolia”. The minister said that if Rio had evidence to back up these allegations “it may be appropriate to suspend further discussions” until those issues were resolved. The disgruntled tone of the Mongolian government letter contrasts with an upbeat assessment from Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm at a Financial Times conference on Thursday. “I do think we are making good progress with the government. There is a lot of mutual interest and progress on this project,” he said. “The dialogue is ongoing, it is intense, and I am cautiously optimistic”. Mr Stausholm said it was impossible to confirm the project would start up by October next year, citing the unpredictable impact of COVID-19 on operations and staffing. Mr Nyambaatar said Rio Tinto “appears to blame its Mongolian workforce for project failures”, which he criticised as “deeply disrespectful to Oyu Tolgoi’s national workforce and the people of Mongolia”. He also said, “the project could have been completed well before it faced any challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic”. He noted Rio Tinto’s claim that the independent report - commissioned by the board of the Oyu Tolgoi project, when minority shareholders and the government out-voted Rio - was only a “desktop” review that had not seen key information. He called on Rio to make the information available, saying that “unless and until Rio Tinto provides sensible explanations, the independent review report will remain a valid and conclusive evidence as to the reasons for the cost overruns and schedule delays”. He said, “the onus is on Rio Tinto to ... find win-win solutions and rectify the current situation”. “We do hope that you will ensure there is respect and transparency in your dealings with Mongolia so that we can strive to rebuild the trust between us as partners for this important project,” he said. Rio Tinto declined to comment on Mr Nyambaatar’s letter. ================================================ years back---when Jacques [x--ceo] start to promote oyu tolgoi cooper mine i was so exited back then. but time goes on to see this major project slip into swamp , it is heart break!
  22. The SPX’s latest bearish pattern officially was negated on Thursday. The bigger potential bearish formation still has not been triggered. 2 And with no bullish formations having yet to form, there currently are no live breakouts or breakdowns. 3 The Bear Oscillator remains in an Elevated Risk zone given this scenario. Again, this will drop back to the Tame Zone (under 3) when we finally see a short-term bullish formation target achieved and/or the SPX gets back to new highs. We're about three weeks into this phase right now... So far, the damage has been relatively contained. ================================ that shity NFP number still can't scar the marketers, they might think of " goldy lock"" for Fed's action???
  23. Do you see all of these homeless people around?” the lead protester yells through a bullhorn. “Are they dead in the streets with Covid? Hell no! Why?” A man pushing a shopping cart down the street then offers her an answer: “Because I’m vaccinated, you dumb f***!” ========== ........ ............................... https://au.yahoo.com/news/homeless-person-d...-174835175.html
  24. Crude oil closed higher at $78.87 (+1.86%), on reports the U.S. Department of Energy is walking back plans that it was considering a release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a ban on crude oil exports, While some buying/overshoot into the low $80’s is still possible, we remain mindful that crude oil has entered the seasonally weaker month of October. Silver marked time ahead of tonight’s U.S. jobs data closing $22.58 (-0.04%). While above the band of support between $21.35 and $20.90 (includes trend channel support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the $11.64 low to the $30.14 high), we remain bullish, looking for silver to extend its recovery, initially towards $24.00 before $26.00. ======================== saw WTI price dropped under usd$76/b then buyer stepped in, saw it rallied all the way back to it's close, it is a huge reversal day.
  25. The AUDUSD closed at .7314 (+0.55%) and appears to have traced out a potential inverted head and shoulders bottom on the intraday charts. The market remains heavily short the AUDUSD, and should the AUDUSD break/close above the top of the .7320/40 resistance area, I would expect to see a short-covering rally commence towards .7500c ============ the chart paten looks it gonna rally higher----imho though.
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