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early birds

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  1. The energy crisis keeps getting worse. Shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for oil, deepening what was already a sizable supply deficit in crude markets, according to the International Energy Agency. “An acute shortage of natural gas, LNG and coal supplies stemming from the gathering global economic recovery has sparked a precipitous run-up in prices for energy supplies and is triggering a massive switch to oil products,” the IEA warned. —David E. Rovella ========== from bloomberg , inflation will be jacked up big time imho.
  2. Copper closed higher again $4.61 (+2.25%) following the release of an IMF report earlier this week that said, “In the IEA’s Net-Zero by 2050 emissions scenario … copper shows a twofold increase in total consumption”. Copper has broken out of the top of the five-month trend channel. Backed by tight supply and the fundamentals outlined above, the view remains for copper to retest and break of the $4.88 high with scope to $5.25. I would only reconsider the bullish view if copper were to close back within the trend channel. Silver is higher overnight at $23.56 (+2.18%), benefitting from the retracement in the U.S. Dollar and U.S. yields. We added silver to the radar two weeks ago, and as long as silver holds trend channel support and the support coming from the 50% Fibonacci near $21.00, we remain bullish looking for $24.00, before $26.00 ================= seen silver back into uptrend , my short term silver bet , seems will pay of big time before year end...
  3. The AUDUSD has extended gains to be trading at .7418 (+0.53%), enjoying the backdrop of stronger commodities, lower U.S yields, and an improved risk-seeking environment. The short-covering rally we have been expecting is well and truly underway. A break of near-term resistance at .7420/30 should then see a test of our upside target at .7480/.7500c. Beyond here, watch for a test of the 200-day moving average at .7600c. Stops on longs can be trailed higher to .7365. ================ as AAA confirmed would see AUD pop up little faster ...
  4. US stocks posted strong gains overnight, supported by solid economic data and earnings reports from companies including Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanely. The S&P500 closed at 4438 (+1.71%), the Nasdaq closed at 15052 (+1.88%), while the Dow Jones added 535 points to close at 34913. In the S&P500, the overnight close above the trend channel resistance at 4420/30 is a strong indication the correction from the September 4549.50 high is complete at the 4260 low, and the uptrend has resumed. Reinforced by the solid seasonal tailwinds into year-end, the expectation is for the S&P500 to retest and break the 4549.50 high before making fresh highs towards 4700. The ASX200 closed 39 points higher yesterday at 7311, almost 50 pts below its intraday highs after a sell order hit the market in the PM session. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a break and close above trend channel resistance at 7400/20ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open higher this morning at 7366. Resistance on the day is expected at 7395, and support viewed at 7330. ================== seems bull run will continue ........
  5. Copper closed at $4.50 (+4.10%) following the release of an IMF report that said: “the demand for some metals would increase with more certainty because they are used across a range of low-carbon technologies (copper, nickel, and manganese, for example).” The report also said, “In the IEA’s Net-Zero by 2050 emissions scenario … copper shows a twofold increase in total consumption”. Copper has broken out of the top of the five-month trend channel. Backed by tight supply and the fundamentals outlined above, providing Copper holds above support at $4.30, the expectation is for a retest and break of the $4.88 high with scope to $5.25. Natural gas closed higher again at $5.67 (3.03%). The pullback that has followed Russias pledged to increase gas supply to the continent looks to have played out for now and supply remains tight. Should Natural Gas see a sustained break above last week's $6.466 high and the 2014 $6.49 high, it could lead to a very messy move towards $10.00 coming from the high of December 2000 viewed on the monthly chart below. One to keep an eye on
  6. The AUDUSD closed higher overnight at .7373 (+0.31%). This morning at 11.30 am Sydney time, Australian jobs data for September is due to be released. The forecast is for another significant fall in employment of around -120k driven by lockdowns and mobility restrictions. The participation rate is expected to drop from 65.2% to 64.8% and moderate the rise in the unemployment rate from 4.5% to 4.8%. Providing the AUDUSD continues to hold above support .7320/00, the view remains that a short-covering rally towards .7500c has commenced.
  7. The S&P500 and the Nasdaq advanced overnight after US yields eased lower despite a higher than expected inflation figure and as Q3 earnings reporting season commenced. The S&P500 closed at 4364 (+0.30%), the Nasdaq closed at 14775 (0.77%), while the Dow Jones closed flat at 34378. In the S&P500, the sell-off from 4549.50 high is viewed as a correction. A break and daily close above trend channel resistance at 4420/30 is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, allow for the correction to deepen towards trend channel support and wave equality 4215/00 area. The ASX200 closed 8 points lower yesterday at 7272. A fall in iron futures during the Asian time zone weighing on the Materials sector. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a break and close above trend channel resistance at 7400/20ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open higher this morning at 7310. Resistance on the day is expected at 7350, and support viewed at 7275. ======================= market is trying to find direction..
  8. https://au.yahoo.com/news/new-deadly-virus-...-201453074.html new strain of Hendra virus, which is found in flying foxes, has been found in NSW. The CSIRO said the latest case was found in a horse in Newcastle. There was a Hendra outbreak in 2014 which led to more than 80 horses dying or being euthanised in Australia. “Owners and any people who interact with horses can reduce the risk of infection from Hendra virus and other zoonotic viruses through vaccination of horses or humans where available, wearing appropriate PPE, and seeking veterinary attention for sick horses,” he said. ======================== kinda remember it nearly killed the racing biz back then. i guess they will better control of this after covid-19 saga. really hate bats-------the flying rats.
  9. Crude oil closed flattish at $80.53 (+0.01%), unable to shake off the evidence of preliminary rejection from the $82.18 high the day before. Mindful that a break/close below $76.00 is needed to damage the uptrend and to indicate a deeper pullback in line with the weaker seasonality of October is underway. After testing and holding trendline support on the daily chart, natural gas closed higher at $5.455 (2.04%). Russias pledge last week to increase gas supply to the continent has helped take the sting out of a very tight market. However, should Natural Gas see a sustained break above last week's $6.466 high and the 2014 $6.49 high, it could lead to a very messy move towards $10.00 coming from the high of December 2000 ==================== nat gas keeps going higher , and winter coming in northen hemisphere good for WPL STO OSH share price. [ i'm good]
  10. with inflation jumped up big time as energy price rocked high, will RBA make a drastic move earlier ??? ===================== The AUDUSD closed higher at .7358 (+0.08%), consolidating its break above the band of resistance .7320/40 area. Providing the AUDUSD continues to hold above support at .7280/75, the view remains that a short-covering rally towards .7500c (the projection of the inverted head and shoulders bottom) has commenced =====================
  11. U.S. stock markets were in a cautious mood overnight ahead of the start of the September quarter earnings season and vigilant that surging energy/commodity prices will lead to higher inflation against a backdrop of slower growth and Fed tapering. News that China will commence a regulatory crackdown on the financial sector is not helping sentiment either. The S&P500 closed at 4351 (-0.24%), the Nasdaq closed at 14662 (-0.35%), while the Dow Jones closed 118 points lower at 34378. In the S&P500, the sell-off from 4549.50 high is viewed as a correction. A break and daily close above trend channel resistance at 4420/30 is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, allow for the correction to deepen towards trend channel support and wave equality 4215/00 area. The ASX200 closed 19 points lower yesterday at 7280 on the back of profit-taking in the Energy Sector and weakness in the IT sector. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a recovery back above trend channel resistance at 7410/20ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open higher this morning at 7280. Resistance on the day is expected at 7330, and support viewed at 7255
  12. Crude oil closed at $80.43 (+1.36%) although well off its intraday high of $82.18, potentially providing preliminary evidence of the blow-off high/overshoot into the low $80’s we have been expecting. Mindful that a break/close below $76.00 would be needed to damage the uptrend and to indicate a deeper pullback is underway. Iron ore closed at $136.95 (+9.05%), helped higher by an assumption that Chinese steel mills will increase production as power caps are lifted and after achieving deeper than expected production cuts in August and September. The best guess now is for a period of consolidation for iron ore between $110 and $160 p/t into year end ========================= seems this study sees the short term top for the oil price?? but world energy crisis still loom large atm........
  13. The AUDUSD closed higher at .7350 (+0.56%) above the band of resistance .7320/40 area. This development suggests that a short-covering rally towards .7500c (the projection of the inverted head and shoulders bottom) has commenced. To remain with the positive view, the AUDUSD needs to hold above support at .7280/75
  14. U.S. stock markets extended losses overnight as strength in energy/commodity prices inflamed inflation fears against a backdrop of slower growth and ahead September quarter earnings season. Traders are also on edge over reports that China will expand its regulatory crackdown into the banking sector. The S&P500 closed at 4361 (-0.69%), the Nasdaq closed at 14714 (-0.72%), while the Dow Jones closed 250 points lower at 34496. In the S&P500, the sell-off from 4549.50 high is viewed as a correction. A break and daily close above trend channel resistance at 4420/30 would indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, allow for the correction to deepen towards trend channel support and wave equality 4215/00 area. The ASX200 closed 20 points lower yesterday at 7300. The Energy and Materials Sector the outperformers on the back of strength in energy and iron ore prices. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a recovery back above trend channel resistance at 7410/20ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open lower this morning at 7262. Resistance on the day is expected at 7305, and support viewed at 7230 =========================== use swing trade, do more of really short term trading likes of day trade to deal these market at moment as market in-direction. imho
  15. While some have been beating the “inflation isn’t transitory” drum pretty loud of late, two Wall Street giants just proclaimed that they’re wrong. “Despite near-term uncertainty, we expect the equity market will continue to rally as investors gain confidence that the current pace of inflation is transitory,” Goldman Sachs said. JPMorgan concurred, writing that stagflation fears will soon start to fade. In other words, it’s apparently time to buy the dip =================== from bloomberg they are ramping ??? not really sure, only to look at TA these days!!
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