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Everything posted by rog

  1. Spot price has dropped below $40 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...holdings-expand
  2. Another option might be to average down (I'm betting that it will all blow over so bought a few more)
  3. Not OPEC more that production data indicate US shale oil has peaked.
  4. The only reason that market values have increased is that traders keep buying and selling them. Its trader -vs- trader as money moves freely between them.
  5. Anyway, I'm wondering what percentage of this so called "correction" was driven by non humans ie algorithms, stop losses and the like. Seems that the falls could have been far worse due to braking, or curbing, mechanisms installed on the NYSE post 1987.
  6. S&P futures now up 4% did you load up or what?
  7. That seems to be a good system - buy on the panic. I did that in 2008 and 2009 and did well - still hold most of them. Yield only.
  8. The Yuan is tied (pegged) to the $US which has appreciated against other currencies. This revaluation brings China back to the level of its customers; http://fortune.com/2015/08/11/why-china-devalued-yuan/
  9. On a fundamental basis this devaluation by China seems like a sign of desperation and with many larger economies in austerity mode things could spiral downwards. So I am not confident that the outlook, in Australia, could be called bullish. Our trashing of the manufacturing and export sectors during the commodity boom leaves our economy without any real support.
  10. I sympathise with your dilemma and believe that the course you have taken to be most prudent. My own viewpoint is that I am unable to predict the movement of shares for any particular moment and my only strongly held belief is that there is no evidence that anyone else is more able. However, I do know that the world has been through the most dreadful of times yet the trend of the market has been up. Buying low selling high is an attractive strategy but you do have to realise that it is just gambling and gamblers eventually lose. It's inevitable.
  11. Despite wars, revolutions, depressions and other calamities http://www.theskilledinvestor.com/ss.item....-over-time.html
  12. For goodness sake, Dr Malgrem was economic advisor to GWB including corporate governance, bank regulation etc etc
  13. The problem with Australia pursuing a commodity led boom has been that the Capex has been inflationary requiring monetary intervention by the RBA resulting in a high AUD thereby effectively wiping out many export oriented businesses.
  14. Interest rates (price or cost of money) has been one tool used to keep inflation low.
  15. Nett debt, not gross debt, as % of GDP http://cuffelinks.com.au/wp-content/uploads/AO-Picture1a-270215.png
  16. The high interest rates by the RBA were to slow the high inflation of the 80s. http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/5056904-3x2-940x627.jpg
  17. Absolutely, but you are not disinclined to forecast?
  18. The success of Apple and other companies highlights the failure of resources. CSL is another 10 bigger that I foolishly sold.
  19. No you weren't, you were talking about monetary policy ie money supply and its influence on a share price. But go ahead, place your bet.
  20. The 'whole' market is cash, bonds, property, shares...
  21. and with respect I don't think that you are getting it. Markets are not distorted because one listing grows faster than the index, markets are distorted by regulation or some other restriction normally placed by government. The fundamentals support CBA sp and until those fundamentals change the sp is reasonable. HIA usually bang on about high % rates influencing construction - now they feel able to comment on macro economics. The RBA have always said that mining will fall and they expected to ease monetary policy to allow construction to pick up.
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