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Everything posted by datum

  1. this isnt an really a stockmarket quote, but its wonderfully entertaining, its from newspaper article from todays Australian about the AUD currency decline...................... Commonwealth Bank currency strategist Joseph Capurso said a stronger US dollar was the major factor behind today's fall. This guy is an absolute genius, he did an MBA degree to come up with that conclusion
  2. well, the $20 mill npat for 07/08 is out the window. that forecast was from the 8th feb 2008 merger presentation . They have not deliberately tryed to mis-lead shareholders, they were just far too optimistic. The full year results looks like they will be using every accounting phrase thats ever been invented. ........... one offs, intangibles, depreciation, amortisation, merger & acquisition costs, etc. On a brighter note their ebitda for the qtr ended 31 july 2008 is $22 million. So, in the 4 mths since the merger they seem to be maintaining ebitda of around $7/8 million per month. Which implys they should come close to their forecast $100 million ebitda. hopefully, after these writeoffs are taken care of, you should see a brand new company emerge from the other side .
  3. In reply to: Buoya on Wednesday 23/07/08 03:32pm Buoya, just re-reading the SOT thread & saw your comment. i must point out that asking for my opinion is like putting your head between the jaws of a great white shark & hoping things go Ok for you. This is a post i put on a general thread a few weeks ago.......... my regular free email flyer from The Intelligent Investor has appeared & there opening paragraph doesn't look to pretty............. (2 years of bad stock picks) From a research perspective, the past 12 months have been the most difficult in The Intelligent Investor’s 10-year history. The Growth Portfolio fell 37% in the year to 30 June, the Income Portfolio fell 26%, and the last Buy recommendation to show a positive return was ARB Corporation in August 2006. There have been 15 since, of which three – Timbercorp, RHG and Platinum Asset Management – have more than halved. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- as you can see, this is a bad market. In regards to SOT, the numbers look very attractive, earnings wise. What you cant measure is market sentiment, & this is what has driven SOT down to 16cents. The late Rene Rivkin used to have a set or rules, His main rule was that he examined the downside risk first. Then he asks himself "how low can it go if im wrong". The answer for SOT is probably 10cents. So you have to make a personal decision on the risk/reward ratio. I have not bought SOT, & will probably not buy it for at least another 6 mths. I dont think the full year results are going to move this stock. Next years projections of $40+ mill npat will make an impact, but thats 12 mths away
  4. i recently re-bought NAB several months ago for $29.05 I had a look at my old records when i previously owned NAB. The dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) for my holding on the 9th September 1997, was allocated at $19.26 per share For the (DRP) on the 30th sep 1998, it was $23.90 per share. Hope this cheers everyone up.
  5. QUOTE (frmthefuture @ Tuesday 19/08/08 04:29pm) i dont have your confidence frmthefuture, But whether your optimistic & i am pessimistic wont change the outcome. We could try a bit of ramping , but i dont think its going to move a $40 billion lump such as NAB All the banks down around 3% or more today , this relentless selling is looking like a long term thing. Also, thanks to all posters with your contributions on options .
  6. just a general comment about qantas, rather than a financial comment. first of all, i dont believe QAN maintenance staff would deliberately shortcut or do a substandard job on purpose. As we know QAN over the last 3 , 4 or 5 years have been finding any way they can to slash costs. All these plane faults ocurring now is probably the result of these 5 years of cost cutting. It is now manifesting itself in the form of very bad service & neglected aeroplanes. Their planes are regularly late, & last nite at melb airport my plane was an hour late, after landing it took 20 minutes to taxi to the terminal & 25 minutes to get my bags. QAN will need to fix this debacle, but since the seeds were sown 3+ years ago, it might take 3+ years to reverse it.
  7. In reply to: Petert20 on Sunday 17/08/08 11:27am QUOTE right $26.50 august calls for 37cents peter, i dont know if I'm misunderstanding this, your $26.50 call options expiring 28/08/08 with your 37 cent premium, means you need a price of $26.87 on expiry to breakeven & anything above that is profit. i am correct about this?? , unless you bought put options
  8. datum


    CEU traffic report i did a trip on eastlink on wednesday. I got on at the dandenong bypass (near the southern end) at 5.05pm. (i was heading north) basically traffic was light , both directions, i was heading north bound & travelled all the way thru to the tunnel to join the eastern freeway. traffic was partically light south bound, heading towards frankston, when i was in the southern part of the tollway. Once i was past the monash freeway interchange south bound traffic increased to light/moderate. there seemed to be sporadic waves of traffic. Which is caused by motorists using only two or three sections of the tollway & then getting off. CEU reported the average trip length is 12km. The tollway is 39 km long. The tunnel had moderate traffic in both directions. Being my journey was at peak hour , i was expecting heavier traffic. I think they will need to discount the toll charges at the southern end of the tollway to encourage motorists to use the full tollway to frankston.
  9. In reply to: WestWolf on Thursday 14/08/08 01:22am westwolf,codfish, in most cases (such as CFE) they do keep all the money & waste it on other things. CCI, turning there $8 mill mine into $40 mill is pure good luck, rather than management ability. Because they have already stated they are considering "an up to 15 cent capital return" i would expect something decent coming back to shareholders. Its the only reason i bought CCI , as a punt. If CCI management were serious about mining they would have got the chrome mine into production, but they have not, because they dont have the ability or expertise, & they know it as well.
  10. my regular free email flyer from The Intelligent Investor has appeared & there opening paragraph doesn't look to pretty............. (2 years of bad stock picks) From a research perspective, the past 12 months have been the most difficult in The Intelligent Investor’s 10-year history. The Growth Portfolio fell 37% in the year to 30 June, the Income Portfolio fell 26%, and the last Buy recommendation to show a positive return was ARB Corporation in August 2006. There have been 15 since, of which three – Timbercorp, RHG and Platinum Asset Management – have more than halved.
  11. datum


    vida, shareholders will get zero. BXP has debts of between $250 mill to $300 mill. The only thing 7/11 must be interested in is the dialtime/billpay software & the server farms that go with it. That way 7/11 would own their own software IP, so they would not have to pay franchise fees to use someone"s system, such as epay or ezipass. i have no idea what it is worth, but whether its $1 mill or $30 million for the system it will still be well short of the $300 million outstanding debt
  12. after my previous posts on this board about how much of a dog stock CCI is, i have taken a very small holding in CCI @ 13 cents. As previously mentioned , a lot of stocks trade below their nta or cash backing. CFE is a very recent example of this, having sold their iron ore tenements for $400 million. The CFE share price has not moved because management are going to seek other opportunities with the money the promise of an "up to 15 cent capital return" is highly possible, but i expect it to be a little bit less than that "up to" could mean a one cent capital return, but i would expect a return of around the 8 to 10 cent mark. CCI will keep the rest of the money , to keep themselves in a job for the next 2 or 3 years, & the lease payments on BMW convertibles dont come cheap either. So after they recieve the money we might see a bit of bounce, or we might have to wait until the captial return is finalised, which hopefully give the s.p. a bit of a lift
  13. datum


    QUOTE (Omnibust @ Thursday 07/08/08 05:12pm) your report of springvale rd might be bad news for CEU. it would seem with eastlink taking those 130,000 cars off the other major roads is more than enough to make a big impact on the old routes. therefore, their is no need for other road users to migrate to eastlink if they are getting a great run on other roads. Channel 9 news (Melbourne) had CEU as its lead story about traffic numbers being down 50% & also highlighting the s.p. drop
  14. datum


    market reaction to the first week of tolling was a bit savage. Although it recovered quite well considering it was down to 76cents or almost a 25% drop initially Might be a typical knee jerk reaction of the state of the market , I.E. sell now & ask questions later. I might have a look back in the archives of CEU to see what their expected projections were.
  15. alonso, looks like your holding this thread all by yourself. $27 mill mkt cap with almost $10 mill cash in the bank gives it a very low enterprise value , & $4mill npat is not a bad effort
  16. qtrly is out. If i was deaf, blind & stupid ,i would probably enjoy owning ONC scrip. Its blatantly obvious that minor shareholders are just a annoyance to ONC management. They give out the absolute bare minimum in information. The card numbers on issue are skyrocketing, 17 million now on issue. If you have a look at their feb 2007 investor presentation, you will see that they had 5 million cards issued & were forecasting 10 million cards by 2010. They have exceeded that number quite comfortably. Oh, well, back to being a mushroom , i guess. At least in the annual report they HAVE to give us some information.
  17. datum


    i am not a subscriber to The Intelligent Investor newsletter, but do receive their free email flyer/advertisement. RHG is one stock they have continually recommended from 70cents & downwards. This is from their latest edition.............. Cash rolls in at RHG We’ve made some mistakes with this stock in the past 12 months, but recommending it at 30 cents wasn’t one of them. The above is just the headline introduction to the article, i dont have access to the rest because i am not a subscriber, but it implies they believe RHG is worth at least 30cents
  18. In reply to: db76 on Wednesday 30/07/08 06:52pm db76, you have done some similar good posts on this thread over the last 6 mths. After reading your posts I decided to behave like an ostrich & stick my head in the sand & ignore your posts. But, it has now sunk into my thick head you are 100% right. The banks are going to become Telstra type stocks. (TLS) IPO price was $3.35, 10 years ago & now its all of $4.50. the banks will always be around, but will now become service industry type companies, as you stated. Anyone under the age of 40 will probably expect the stellar run over the past 15 years to continue for the next 15 years. Unfortunately i now dont expect this to happen. The proof is in the price, NAB s.p. down to 8 year lows.
  19. In reply to: andy20020 on Tuesday 29/07/08 11:10pm i already have Pan pacific (PPP) shares. I bought them on the 19th june 2007 @ 26.5cents the only way i think we will profit from PPP is a large capitial return , such as 15 cents or more. PPP is almost like RHG limited (the former rams home loans) In the fact that RHG are running off their loan book, PPP are running down their oil reserves. i think PPP should pay large dividends then liquidate the company when the oil runs out
  20. this is a telling indication of our market, their has been no posts on this once very popular thread for over a year. one year & 4 days to be exact
  21. datum


    In reply to: jadedjoy on Friday 25/07/08 06:23pm jaded, all those questions you asked wont be answered until CFU succeeds or fails. .........simple as that. To clarify one thing the 1kw unit in the test station is an improved fuel stack that is more efficient than the current design. CFU have had units in the field for around 3 years or more. As i said in an earlier post , CFU is still a punt. I am employed in the mech. engineering field, but this also doesnt mean much. If you asked a Nasa scientist or professor Stephen Hawking if they thought CFU was going to be a success , they wouldn't no the answer either. This CFU product has been over 20 years in the making. Thats how long its taken to get this thing to market, & you could be waiting another 5 years to find out how the story ends
  22. datum


    burning thru $1 million per qtr, with $1.18 million left in their account as of june 30th, so 8 to 10 weeks worth of money left. need a cap raising quite urgently, unless they are selling a lot of product all of a sudden.
  23. datum


    CFU has dropped back to 37cents after its one day 30% spike a few days ago. As yet, there are no forthcoming statements of anyone selling out at the intra day high of 47cents by investors who picks exact bottoms/tops. On to more realistic things, that EU subsidy will result in CFU practically giving away their units. Interesting to see what orders they will generate in th next 12 months
  24. datum


    In reply to: arty on Tuesday 22/07/08 11:57am arty, you might be suffering from a nasty condition i describe as "hotcopperitis" this causes all punters to claim they buy at record lows & sell at record highs. i bought CFU @ 80cents this is your first post on CFU, so i get amused after the fact its gone up 30% Had you have stated yesterday u bought at 36cents then it might be a bit more plausable
  25. datum


    at the end of the day ,CFU still needs to be regarded as a punt. The CEO of Metal Storm (MST) recently posed a very interesting question to his shareholders. He said "are we going to be a slow failure.???" This question equally applys to CFU. The cfcl product is a revolutionary change in the marketplace. The $$10SSS of millions CFU is spending on plant & production is the only thing they can do. 100 years ago Henry Ford built the worlds first mass produced automobile without knowing if he had a market or customer to sell it to. no matter how much research or knowledge you have of CFU, its success or failure cannot be determined. In 2 , 3 or 5 years time we will know the answer to that question.
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