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bello

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Everything posted by bello

  1. bello

    NDO

    Mercury, NDO are currently in negotiations with BHP and Shell for a farmout . NDO have 100% success with their oil fairway (Galoc, Yakal, Tindalo) . Funds from a farmout could be used in the fast track production plan announced today . It is obvious there is a seller at 18, but I'm not so sure it is going to get much cheaper . Near term target for me is high 20's / low 30's .
  2. bello

    AOH

    'They' come in buying waves and then pause as they let the traders re stock the lines above . I think a substantial holder notice or an offer will be pretty soon .
  3. bello

    AOH

    Someone at another site reckons PDN had declared it was was looking for takeover targets . When a stock trades 300 million shares in half a month (half the scrip) it isn't traders - it's corporate and whoever it is is out to beat the traders for for the free carry . IVA, Xstrata, EXS, CDU or PDN ?
  4. bello

    AOH

    Approximately 170 million shares in 3 days and another surge in the shareprice today . IMO, too cheap for such a high quality JORC resource . $13 million market cap only for 128 million tonnes of copper and around 240,000 ounces of gold . CFE pays the receivers of Copperco around $130 million for its assets including its copper mine in the same region as URL, Xstrata, EXS, IVA, and CDU and yet somehow URL has drifted to penny status . Now I know that IVA and Xstrata have interest in gaining cheap resource in the area as did CFE obviously . With almost 80 million shares traded yesterday and almost 60 million today I am guessing this is a corporate raid at a superb discount .
  5. bello

    AOH

    Recent corporate action by CFE buying Copperco may be contagious - value swoop by predators . As far as I can see URL has more than double the Cloncurry region JORC resource of EXS but only 20% of the market cap and both have similar cash reserves .
  6. With the farmout cash equivilent to the current market cap I do believe this is worthy of a reasonable investment (I got in last Friday) . Not sure about the 'Woodside' claim but definately going up alot more if they find gas or oil in the Euro leases .
  7. bello

    MAE

    Punters had speculated that the reserve report would blow the previous certification out of the water, but instead the reserves were revised down at a time when the company has been put up for sale and debt issues are coming to a crucial point .
  8. bello

    ALZ

    ALZ chart looking like it is in a nice recovery trend . Ascending triangle in my eyes . 50 to 60 cents the next base ? Closed on the days high today. 16% approx div rate (2 * 3 cent). Recently refinanced, cap raising supported by major shareholder - Singapore's very cashed up Capitaland. Could Australand be the next case for a foreign ownership decision ? Unfortunately I have no reference/link for the volume following journo perspective but I found this at another site (no responsibility for accuracy given) : "Refinancing positions Australand for takeoverNatalie Craig April 16, 2009 - 10:54AM Australand could be primed for takeover after the residential and commercial property developer announced this morning that its lenders had approved refinancing, allowing it to pay off a $563 million loan facility due on June 30. Linwar Securities last week speculated that successful refinancing of the $350 million owing on the facility could be the catalyst for Singapore's CapitaLand to attempt a takeover, or at least boost its 59% stake. CapitaLand, South-East Asia's largest listed property group, has denied it has plans to privatise the group, but analysts have pointed out that Australand is trading at a massive discount to its book value and that CapitaLand has amassed a war chest of $S6 billion ($5.7 billion) after a capital raising late last month. Australand is one of Australia's biggest residential developers, specialising in house and land packages in Melbourne, and apartments in Sydney. The refinancing announcement sent Australand shares up as much as 25 per cent in early trading. Shares were up 6 cents, or 18% at 39 cents. CapitaLand stock also rose, up 1.7%. Australand managing director Bob Johnston told investors at the group's annual general meeting that it had more than $560 million in existing undrawn facilities and cash on March 31 and it had "commitments'' to renew $100 million of the existing $150 million of unsecured facilities expiring in 2009. Negotiations on the remaining $50 million facility were "well under way''. He said the debt covenants of all businesses in the sector were being "closely examined'' and that its covenants "were met throughout 2008 and continue to be met''. Australand said it had also agreed on new lending rules for its $950 million multi-option facility, including a reduction in the interest cover ratio from 2.5 times to 2 times and a cut to the gearing covenant from 60% to 55%."
  9. The announcement also stated that Longtom production was on track for mid 2009 start. Longtom alone is contracted to bring in $65 million p/a pre tax, with condensate sales an extra cash input . That will put NXS on a very discounted prospective PE and allows the management to await further drill appraisal of other Crux targets/structures, and to negotiate the value they obviously know Crux is worth . They are not out to liquidate major assets because of desired market timeframes . Any sell down of NXS is a great mid to long term opportunity to accumulate derisked assets .
  10. bello

    SRX

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf...ent&src=sph SRX makes the list of only 8 cash positive bio stocks in Australia .
  11. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/busin...1-25658,00.html Government set to fill the international funding gap for commercial and industrial property groups . Reckon you may have picked a good time for a run Crowman .
  12. bello

    HDF

    According to an article posted at H/C : "The assets HDF could sell are a 50 per cent stake in Britain's South East Water and its Epic Energy pipeline business, valued at about $800 million each." The current market cap of HDF is $86 million I too reckon HDF is going to get a nice bounce soon. That Epic Energy Pipeline is going to be one of the main Coal Seam Methane pipes ..... All very well buying massive 2P methane reserves (PES, QGC etc) but the infrastructure to get it to the LNG terminals is looking mighty undervalued atm .
  13. Captain, it feels like holders of any stock on the ASX (or any other) are gamblers atm . I hope rumours of NWE demise are premature but I took my loss back at 12.5 cents many moons ago and swapped nto SAE which promptly went down also (stopped out of that also). I valued Annaliese's posts but she seems to have taken leave of all energy threads lately, so best wishes to her if she ever reads this anymore . Good luck to all holders .
  14. bello

    AAH

    Sirtex (SRX) has declared twice in recent announcements that it is considering acqusitions . They have an existng and profitable liver cancer treatment and have no debt, cash and growth .....
  15. bello

    SRX

    I was speculating that Psivida may be considered . They were trialing a similar Liver treatment and have eye treatments selling in the US and covered by US medicare . Pure speculation on my behalf .
  16. bello

    SRX

    The growth is pretty exciting. I am feeling a little ambiguous about the "possible acquisition" comment however . Hope management are savvy when it comes to securing a bargain .
  17. bello

    MAE

    Hi Beer, long time no chat . MAE today got a great loan increase of $10.5 million . I feel happy to know that the banks are happy to lend to MAE in this market . Obama's recent comments re making the US more energy independent, the favourable exchange rate, the new steady as she goes well remediation program, and bank backing is going to bring rewards to holders this year . The Goldman Sachs connection would be keeping some possible suitors "in the loop" I hypothesize .
  18. bello

    MAE

    In reply to: beermoney on Friday 21/11/08 09:10am According to an asx short list I saw yesterday, only 7500 shares were borrowed to short ..... A director bought 500,000 last week at 22.5 cents . I'm sure he wouldn't have done that if he thought it was a doomed investment .
  19. bello

    MAE

    In reply to: beermoney on Friday 21/11/08 06:11am I can add no light to why MAE is this low apart from the possibility that too much hot money helped drive the shareprice to premature and spiking highs, and possibly now that hot money is being recalled to cover MAE's slide, the XAO's slide, and possible excesses in other investments made by MAE sellers . All at a time when buyers are retreating . As the oil price drops dramatically so does the sp of many energy companies . We know AMP are selling/have sold and there is nothing to say that other large holders are also selling . I know of two bank nominee holders that entered the top 10 holders within the last financial year . They entered fast and possibly are exting just as fast . I look at ELK, CVN, MPO, NXS, ESG, SAE, INP, NDO, OEL etc and none of their shareholders have any reason to gloat . I am holding off buying any more despite the temptation to average down my modest stake .
  20. In reply to: coorg013 on Thursday 20/11/08 02:23pm What should I be watching for Coorg ? Can I blink ?
  21. In reply to: fraz2 on Thursday 20/11/08 02:03pm I have wondered why Shell's Libra farmin amount has not been disclosed, but now with Viking (bought in at ~$1.30) demonstrating some tough play I speculate that a Shell FPSO deal or some even larger capital deal with them is being negotiated . AED and AWE have both declared themselves as potential acquisitors of other companies, but I reckon it'll be an international like Shell that takeover NXS .
  22. In reply to: Tok3n on Thursday 13/11/08 10:29am Chairman at AGM : " it may be that the best outcome, in terms of shareholder value, proves to be a sale of the Company "
  23. bello

    MAE

    In reply to: jsbert on Wednesday 12/11/08 07:13pm Read three individual reports at another site . Sounds like all is on track (apart from the shareprice), and for my part the most important issue regarding production is that 20 million cf per day is considered very achievable, and that 7.5 million cf per day is considered to be "breakeven" for the company . Good buying and some big announcements over the next month and a half . $1.50-$3 per 2p reserve is the going price for takeover .
  24. bello

    MAE

    In reply to: Red Baron on Monday 10/11/08 07:51pm If MAE gets a takeover offer Red, ODY (as the largest MAE holder) will not be under 10 cents anymore ...... To be honest if MAE gets the offer we expect then I would probably sell before formal payment is made anyway . I would likely do the same with ODY if I owned that . I am a modest holder but when the sums are done for ODY (when MAE has a run like it did the other day), ODY is like a very underpriced option - less outlay and greater exposure per share ..... % returns for ODY (even if it keeps a discount to MAE, as it has) are likely to be just as good and possibly better ultimately .
  25. bello

    MAE

    In reply to: beermoney on Monday 10/11/08 01:14pm The buying volume to soak up this recent selling pressure has been quite significant . MAE used to average 500,000 traded stock per day but lately the volumes are in the multi millions everyday . With Goldman Sachs as corporate adviser I can't help but think there is something a little 'hedge fund' in nature to the volumes . ODY is currently a lower cost and lower volitility alternative to MAE, if it is exposure to the assets and corporate potential that you want (2 ODY = 1 MAE, so therefore it is currently an 18 cent MAE equivilent . I was considering jumping from the MAE ship to the ODY ship the other day when the MAE price hit 37 cents and the ODY shareprice effectively gave exposure to one free MAE share . I missed the opportunity and the differential is less striking atm, although still attractive .
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