Jump to content

eshmun

Member
  • Posts

    306
  • Joined

  • Last visited

eshmun's Achievements

Newbie

Newbie (1/14)

0

Reputation

  1. made another video for anyone interested
  2. I have made some YouTube orientation videos using GoogleEarth on Lulo for anyone interested. I don't provide any commentary on them sorry. Eshmun
  3. And just to clarify I don't own any BPT I just have exposure to them through DLS as it seems that there is interest in the merging of these entities either through a friendly scheme of arrangement of a hostile script bid.
  4. Oil is not iron ore. Every oil producer wants the price higher and that's where it will go. The largest vested interest will see to it. Sorry but comparing Cooper Basin conventional oil producers like DLS to AGO is just wrong. They fall much lower on the comparative cost curve and will survive. The yo yo will come back to my hand. You are just not looking on a long enough time frame. Big new lows in the oil price will pull the whole US market into a meltdown, so when that happens we can start all sorts of new discussions. Watch out for what trading platform you are using if this happens. I'll be left with some 4cent shares in an energy company supplying oil to east coast of Australia. Others will be left with nothing. Eshmun
  5. Barra, I think you might be over dramatizing it a bit with the backs to the wall statement. I haven't looked closely at BPT but SXY last time I looked had $49 million cash and $80 million of undrawn credit and DLS had about $170 million of liquidity with their notes not falling due until 2018 and both companies have oil production with positive margins even at these current prices and reserves to last a few years. Yes its good to be nimble when entering but if your view is more calamity with the oil price you shouldn't enter at all. Find something else. I think I've made my views on oil clear. The market hasn't priced in the risks. OPEC production actually fell last month due to problems in Iraq and it is odds on that shale production will fall in the next 12 months unless the price of oil rises because investment in this area is drying up very fast. If you are interested in the trade you need to choose an entry level at some point. I'm happy putting some weight into the trade at these levels but will probably look to add more if there is a significant step change down should the markets get totally routed (I'm going to sit on my hands for at least a month to see what happens there). Failing that I'll probably buy more into a clear uptrend when and if it becomes established. I just like the ASX Cooper Basin oil stocks at these prices over the next few years. Let the shorters and market manipulators play their games now and I'll play my game according to the play book I've written for myself. Eshmun
  6. Not sure how you can talk about trading companies like BPT/DLS/SXY from day to day or intra day!! Buying at these levels is a long term trade. These companies aren't going out of business and will out last the US shale patch. Oil will be up again just a matter of waiting. I think the only sensible discussion is did I get in cheap enough on the swing down? Look at the long term charts of some of these companies. Real yo yo stuff. So the game is try and walk the dog and then hold until the yo yo makes it back to your hand. ASX oil sector is the best medium term equity play going at the moment in my book if you pick the right stocks. Real contrarian investing at its very best. Eshmun
  7. What has happened in this new world order is that markets and economies have decoupled and should really be put in separate baskets now. The market jitters we are having have got little to do with the economic data that is coming out around the world. Western markets got fixated on the deflation of the Chinese stock market bubble and some knee jerk reactions in the FX markets by the PBOC to temper the falls. As the gyrations in Chinese stocks dampen, as will be inevitable as their markets find a new base, gazing at the Shanghai index from day to day will go back to be as boring as bat shit and the markets will find the next "hot topic" to get fixated on. The constant news cycle and the need for constant prompts to feed the endless stream of screen jockeys who trade the markets and anything else that moves, including to flies crawling up the wall, will always demand an endless diarrhoea of economic data to stream forth. People want to believe that equity markets operate on the basis of economic cause and effect which is not true. They are engineered and manipulated now by central banks and the banksters that run them, the perturbations that are driven by the screen jockeys responding to every little piece of economic data that flicks along the bottom of a screen are just the white noise on the charts. The real drivers are the central bankers so forget about the rest. Markets are dead. They don't exist. They'll only ever be real once the hand of the state and the centralists are taken off them. Think about it. The big moves recently in markets have all come via the hands of central bankers and their grip on FX markets. The Swiss de-pegging, the China Yuan devaluation and now we all wait with baited breath for the most constipated central bank motion in history, the lift off. lol Eshmun
  8. This is a few days old but highlights my views on US shale oil as per points 1) and 2) of my previous post. Eshmun http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5a8c9a4c-54...v#axzz3l3X7yvxS
  9. I don't buy that argument completely. There are a lot of risks not priced into the oil futures market that the article doesn't touch on in any way. Here are some that I can think of off the top of my head: 1) The long run financial and environmental unsustainability of the shale oil fracking industry in the US and the similarly unsustainable Canadian oil sand industry. Industries built off the back of 24 years of "Alan Greenspan's" monetary easing and 7 years of zero interest rate policies and massive monetary stimulus in the US which actually has run contrary to the US Federal Reserve's mandate to maintain "moderate long-term interest rates". Industries built on the mispricing of risk through the gross mispricing of available credit. 2) The rise and rise of the shale oil junk bond and debt market and overlying derivative products such as ETF's which create dangerous mismatches in liquidity and could potentially threaten broader markets should runs on redemptions in the ETF's not be met by buying in the underlying bond market. Low oil prices, hedge maturities, debt maturities, asset impairments based on recalculation of reserve estimates, bank loan and credit line lending reviews, all threaten this market in the coming months and years ahead. 3) The threat to another one of the US Federal Reserve's favourite mandates, maximum employment. The unsustainability of the shale patch could ultimately threaten employment in the oil states where oil jobs and flow through jobs have supported the US economic recovery in a major way since the crisis hit in 2008. A shale oil bust could threaten a sector of the US employment market which is probably one of only a few sectors that has seen any recent real wage growth in the US. 4) Rising turmoil in the oil producing centres of the middle east and North Africa. There is currently a war between the US backed Saudis and Iranian sponsored Shiite proxy forces occurring in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's direct neighbours. There is also currently a caliphate of Islamic extremists that occupy large swaths of the northern part of oil rich Iraq and Syria and they are at war on at least three fronts and still pose a threat to oil supplies and at least one of Iraq's largest oil refineries. The same group is now also active in oil rich Libya (and other countries) were instability has reined since the death of Gaddafi. The US has raised tensions with other countries in the region like Israel and Saudi Arabia by thawing relations with Iran and even the Obama deal has started to hit some word semantic hurdles recently. Fundamentally the US and Iran are at odds over the Assad regime in Syria and any other number of Iranian supported militia groups that do Iran's bidding in the middle east so it is difficult to understand this shift in policy towards the country which has been the major beneficiary of the US's failed invasion of Iraq. The middle east is probably more out of control now than any time since 1933, when oil was first discovered in Saudi Arabia. The current market for oil doesn't price these risks in. It only sees the very short term over supply. Personally I'm expecting to see some extreme volatility in oil prices over the next two years as these risks and other less predictable international geo-economical and political factors play themselves out. Eshmun
  10. Don't buy the false narrative rog. The US needs the oil price up and its up. Manipulation pure and simple.
  11. The story on oil in the last week seems to be panning out just as I predicted. The narrative has changed suddenly hasn't it. No surprise to me. Eshmun HOUSTON  U.S. crude prices shot up nearly $4 a barrel after OPEC said in a monthly publication that it’s ready to speak to other oil producers to achieve a balanced market and better prices. OPEC Bulletin. http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/08/31/oil-sur...ces/#34823101=0
  12. http://wallstreetonparade.com/2015/08/defi...-to-make-money/ There's no doubt that my friends at Wall Street On Parade hold a grudge against the big Wall St banks, but this article does pick up on a theme, are these 5 big Nasdaq companies overvalued and do they themselves represent a threat to markets? That statistic about their combined value in comparison to the Frankfurt market does open my eyes a bit. Eshmun
  13. Barra, Probably a safe move as the problem with gyrating markets is that they gyrate and I'm not convinced that we are fully out of the danger zone yet. The markets need to settle and the normal robo-trading rhythm needs to set in again for a few weeks so that sentiment can move from fear to greed again. I noticed that in one stock I trade the usual market makers were missing during the worst of the fall and the honest market was given a chance to play it out for a while. That period of honest trading also seems to have marked the bottom for that stocks price (for now cross ones fingers) so I now think I have a useful buy signal for next time (caveat: that buy signal won't help if the market is too far gone and the powers that be have lost all control). I also noticed it with BHP as I was sniffing at it when it hit its low of $22.41 and I almost pushed the buy button at $22.56. Trading was really thin at that time. Once I missed my chance on BHP I just watched it do what I was expecting it to do from the sideline . I'm a little exposed now to this oil "bounce" on one stock I own so am hoping my theories on oil play out. Another dive in the oil price puts everyone in danger again so I'm banking on the fact that the US knows this as well and the bounce will turn into a rally back up above US$50 for WTI. I'm going to just ignore the noise about the fundamentals on oil and go with my theory. Then I'll know who to blame if it blows up in my face. You'd think the downside of the Iranian deal is already factored in and so that leaves only room for a surprise on this deal to the upside. I can't see Obama being vetoed by his own party but who knows what crisis might be manufactured by the neoconservatives in government the US before then. Wouldn't be surprised if we don't here major rumblings out of Israel before then or even a surprise out of the Saudis on oil (maybe some backroom deal on oil to appease tensions between the Saudis and Iran and there proxies in Yemen). http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/...s-congress.html# http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/...-a-1027056.html By the way apart from the human suffering in that war the damage that is being done to the worlds cultural heritage in the capital Sana is a total disgrace. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/13/world/mi...rabia.html?_r=0 Eshmun
  14. Barra, I called the US GDP read as a catalyst for a good market rise at the start of the week and the oil price is bouncing right on cue as I've said. Manipulation its is pure and simple. The US has no levers left, only the few markets that it can manipulate like commodities and they are the most powerful as they have global reach. Rog Have a read of this series of tweets from Eric Hunsader, owner of the market data firm Nanex. There sure was some funny action going on in markets on Flash crash Monday. https://twitter.com/nanexllc?ref_src=twsrc%...7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Eshmun
×
×
  • Create New...