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Everything posted by ian_whitchurch

  1. In reply to: apache123 on Wednesday 21/12/05 12:59pm On the other hand, NYMEX are saying delivery prices are Dec 2006 $61.32 Dec 2007 $60.81 Dec 2008 $59.16 Dec 2009 $57.66 OK, December figures tend to be higher due to winter heating oil demand, but it's still a bit of a difference ... Ian Whitchurch
  2. In reply to: yogi-in-oz on Wednesday 21/12/05 12:17pm Mike Scott's press releases are an education in the industry. It's notable that they havent even mentioned trying to farm down Madura ... I think that the only way for a bigger oiler (like, for example, one that has an interest in the nearby Jeruk) to be involved is via COE. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: kalmsg on Tuesday 20/12/05 11:08pm Kalmsg, Nuh. They're a long way away. The current deal - signed when Oilex thought Rookwood South was an oilfield - is 100 for 60, leaving GOG paying 0 for 40. Videocon think they can win 30 by paying (and I'm generous here) 35%. If Videocon are right, that means their is 70% left, and 65% of costs to pay. So to maintain the current deal Oilex would need to pay 70 to win 25, and the only way you can get that to work is with mug punters who dont read the fine print in prospectuses (ie the Moby Oil and Gas/BAS deal). Everyone needs to give a little on this ... my model would be Videocon pays 40 to win 30, OEX pays 40 to win 30 and GOG covers the last 20% to win 40. It also puts some of their skin in the game, which is always nice to see with a vendor. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: kalmsg on Tuesday 20/12/05 10:49pm Nice find. Thats pretty clearly going to come out of OEX's share. OEX was paying 100 to win 60, with the well now being an estimated A$12m (as per OEX quarterly of 30 September 2005). Winning 30% by paying $3-4m in that case is a little optimistic, as it's basically at even money. My feeling is still that GOG are going to have to renegotiate downwards, say towards OEX/Videocon/Whoever paying 100 to win 80. Otherwise, it wont get drilled, and EPR is an example of what happens then. Ian Whitchurch
  5. In reply to: oldman river on Tuesday 20/12/05 11:21am This is gossip, but the story I heard was that when COE announced the Madura deal, Santos rang up Mike Scott about a farmin, and he laughed at them and hung up. I dont think capex is going to be that high at Maduea that COE needs to burn down. They've got cash flow and that big cash pile, after all. Ian Whitchurch
  6. In reply to: Zoni33 on Thursday 01/12/05 02:12pm Far as I understand it, daydreaming is about results, and active visualisation is about processes ... daydreaming is kicking the winning goal. Active visualisation is the run up, the feel of balance and the smooth arc of the leading foot ... Ian Whitchurch
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    For what it's worth, I think EPE at around 5 cents is now at it's low. Basically, the COE farmout (and the fact that Mike Scott was happy to pay 2:1 on the dirt says to me that 10% is well worth owning) stabilises their cash outflow, and the Smegsy pipeline is now getting close enough to base buying decisions on. It wasnt worthwhile at 16, 10, 8. But at 5, yeah, theres now value there. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: diana on Thursday 24/11/05 12:27pm Diana, Dont forget that the $58 is US dollars, while the costs are all in less valuable Australian dolalrs. Check COE and STU's accounts for the margin on oil production. Me, I'd be happy using net A$40. I actually suspect it's closer to a net A$50. Ian Whitchurch
  9. In reply to: auroraoz on Friday 11/11/05 06:45pm Kahuna wrote, "Case in point about the production of oil too fast ... Russia. It was desperate for foreign currency and basically pumped its fields as quick as it could and in the process the structures have been damaged beyond hope of getting those last little bits of oil out. Russia's own production of oil in the next 10 years is going to halve as these abused oil fields production drops off the scale." It was part that, and part stopping wildcatting in East Siberia and other expensive places. Basically, it takes about 10 years to go from initial wildcat strike to decent production ... and if you stop wildcatting, then in 10 years you have a production hole. Between the fall of the old system and the oligarchs concentrated on getting the easy stuff while the going was good, the production line of new discoveries stopped. Now, they - and us - are seeing the concequences of that. Ian Whitchurch
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    Could any ETE shareholders drop me a PM, or an email to ian_whitchurch3@yahoo.com.au ? Ian Whitchurch
  11. In reply to: marathon on Wednesday 26/10/05 01:06pm Marathon wrote "It is certainly time for the Australian Government to review the taxation arrangements." Sorry, this is a sore spot of mine. The deepwater GoM wasnt driven by tax incentives - it was driven by $7 gas and $30 oil, backed up by 3D seismic and the end of the long shaking "shaking out" period for deepwater drilling. If you dont drill it, it doesnt go away. Nothin has happened to any oil or gas in the Bremer basin, offshore Tassie or the deepwater stuff off South Island. The biggest proble is access to infrastructure, including people. Ian Whitchurch
  12. In reply to: Brierley on Saturday 22/10/05 04:14pm Mike Scott wont pay what Tino and his board now demand for farmin deals. I think it's very, very unlikely that COE will be in those drills. Ian Whitchurch
  13. If you owned KAR because of the BG farmin, then you need to think real seriously about why you still own them. Every future farminee will need to answer the question of why BG didnt go ahead with the deal - simply, if the data showed obvious prospective targets, then BG wouldnt have walked away. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: Brierley on Friday 14/10/05 02:25pm I think it's not their best strategy, but I think it's their strategy. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: oilleak on Thursday 13/10/05 09:47pm Call me old fashioned, but I believe that oil companies should be worth more than they were before they found oil. Kiana is an excellent little discovery, even if some of the more valuable oil has been displaced by less valuable gas. If Kiana sustains 600 bopd - which is reasonable, given that it tested at 1100 - then thats about net 10 grand a day to GOG at current prices. Kiana keeps them in play, and with Rawson getting up, they get carried with some of their future program. Oilleak is right : 20 cents is indeed a bargain. Ian Whitchurch
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    MrGreedy, It aint commercial until you hve a FEED and a gas sales contract. And they never had neither. Sure, they *claimed* a commercial gas field, but it was bullshit. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: MrGreedy1 on Tuesday 11/10/05 01:33pm MrGreedy, BAS never found a commercial gas field at Moby. Moby is not now, and will not be, a commercial gas field. It just isnt big enough. Full stop, end of story. Ian Whitchurch
  18. In reply to: Wargfang on Friday 07/10/05 11:16am That'd be a miss. Ian Whitchurch
  19. In reply to: woteva on Friday 07/10/05 10:28am Woteva, Until recently, we lived in a world with several to tens of millions barrels a day of spare production capcity. Thats gone, chewed up by field decline and Mrs Chen's air conditioner. It's a different world, man. Ian Whitchurch
  20. In reply to: apache123 on Friday 07/10/05 09:32am The question isnt what oil peaks at ; it's what it troughs at. Right now, we have refineries down, which means lower crude oil demand. We also have releases from the SPR which, while not sustainable, are temporarily adding supply. After Rita wasnt as bad as expected (but I still want to know what happened to the pipelines), oil was always going to drop. But even USD50 is fifty percent over the 'long run average' being used by oil companies to justify projects. Ian Whitchurch
  21. In reply to: barnzai on Thursday 06/10/05 12:01pm Beats learning an expensive lesson ... Ian
  22. Barnzai and Warfang, So, did you guys end up lightening up at 40-ish ? Ian Whitchurch
  23. In reply to: woteva on Tuesday 04/10/05 11:23pm Woteva, I'm not saying it's technically unfeasable. I'm saying that we're still at prototype stage, and it's going to take a shedload of simultaneous changes to the basic infrastructure of our society. Look at your example ... prototype in 1999. Number commercial models in 2005, nil. Heck, even the electric car people have a working driving petrol-electric hybrid. But my money is not on hydrogen. It's a pipe dream, it's been a pipe dream and it will be a pipe dream. A little biofuels, a little ethanol, a little gas-to-liquids, even a little-coal to liquids ... but most of it is just going to be much more expensive fuels. Ian Whitchurch
  24. In reply to: woteva on Tuesday 04/10/05 10:20pm Woteva, When you are in the land of the big numbers, 20 000 bopd is "roughly 15 000". China uses about 6 600 000 barrels a day right now. Assuming their consumption rises by 7% a year, by 2011 they will be using 9.9 mmbd. That 3 300 000 more barrels per day than they use now. Assume they ramp the coal liquification up to twenty times the size of the pilot plant (btw, $7bn is SFA in the big end of the oil business ; I'm sure Kahuna can correct me, but it's roughly the capex spent by that small independant Woodside on NW Shelf), then thats ummm one ninth part of the extra oil they need. And thats not counting that Daqing is well on the bad side of the decline curve. As to hydrogen cars ... yeah, right. Hydrogen is about as easy to handle as natural gas. Uhuh. Talk to an engineer or a chemist, or even better to an an engineer and a chemist. While you're about it, calculate the capex needed to put a $100 000 hydrogen cylinder in every service station in Australia. Thats ummmm wow. About $7 billion. Ian Whitchurch
  25. In reply to: mosaic1996 on Tuesday 04/10/05 07:48pm Mosaic, This thread started when Woteva argued that Chinese coal liquification would lead to oil crashing back to USD30 or so. Woteva wrote "Well Ian obviously I won't be able to convince you of it because I can't show you it. The only possible thing I can do is tell you that it is reality and that a Chinese compant called Shenhua Group will have the first coal liquefaction plant on-line by 2008 and have plans to bring on-line several more by 2010-2011.The first plant which will be the smallest will have a capability of converting 3 milliont of coal into 850 000t of oil equivalent or slightly less than 3:1." At 7 barrels a ton, 850 000 tons of oil is 5.5 million barrels. It's pretty clearly to me an annual figure ... 5.5 million barrels divided by 365 days a year is roughly 15 000 bopd. It's a pilot plant, and even 10 times that doesnt do much for the incremental Chinese demand thats coming down the pipe as they buy more and more cars etc etc etc Ian Whitchurch
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