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Everything posted by ian_whitchurch

  1. In reply to: theflasherman on Wednesday 08/02/06 03:12am Flash, The experience of Ivan was that a bunch of oil and gas production just never came back. It's quite possible that the SPR is still being used to compensate for lower GoM production. Of course, this isnt exactly what I'd do, but right now with supply as close to daily demand as it is, they might keep doing it till winter's over. Ian Whitchurch
  2. In reply to: apache123 on Tuesday 31/01/06 07:17am Ethanol is just one other area where John Howard stuffed up policy. Near where I live in Sydney there is an independant service station that advertises No Ethanol on every bowser. A sensible government would have introduced strict regulation for 2.5% maximum Ethanol, and required new cars to be modified to take gradually more ethanol. Then, you ratchet it up half a point a year, to the point where we get Ethanol providing a decent percentage of our fuel needs. But nope, protecting Manildra was more important, and by allowing distributors to use 10% Ethanol, it triggered a scare among the fundamentally conservative Australian buying public, who then ran screaming from TAINTED FUEL that might DAMAGE THEIR CAR ! NIce one, Johnny. Next time, actually think about public policy, and learn that governing well is governing for the long term. Ian Whitchurcb
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    In reply to: jojosydney on Monday 30/01/06 04:35pm Jojo, The diesel refinery strikes me as a counter to play against Santos. They could make a deal for Madura, but they are playing against the rest of the industry to do so. Nope, in my view, their best bet is to take advantage of their cash flow and target prospects belonging to smaller, cash-flow poor oilers. Bout time, Tino. High oil prices are real - you need to get more dirt. Ian Whitchurch
  4. In reply to: apache123 on Friday 27/01/06 01:34pm Apache, Let me translate. When they "control", they actually mean "stop". Ian Whitchurch
  5. In reply to: dee27 on Saturday 21/01/06 12:00pm The other point to remember is that for 98% of the world, oil is actually owned by governments, and as the profitability of oil goes up, so does their cut, whether thats in PSCs, minimum bids to get the acreage, or cash payments of various sorts. The other 2% is the bits of the US that have oil rights as real property, and in that case it's still the landowners who benefit most (mineral rights are what you want to own). Ian WHitchurch
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    In reply to: vegemite on Wednesday 18/01/06 09:01pm Oilex are now an Indian play with some Australian assets. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: jojosydney on Wednesday 18/01/06 08:37pm Jojo, The problem is of course that as time goes on, the price of deals will go up. Dont forget, CNOOC and INOC are moving offshore in a big way, and that pulls KNOC, Videocon and a bunch of other companies most Australians have never heard of in their wake. Two years ago, they could have managed it. A year ago, it would have been doable. Now ... well, lets see. A years time ? Good luck, Tino. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: jojosydney on Wednesday 28/12/05 09:22pm A refinery is a good idea, if just as a negotiating chip with Santos, but Stuart need to make a move out of the Cooper. They need to pick up some slabs of dirt, do some work on it, and be able to show they have a plan for when Worrior runs out. Right now, they are looking a lot like Santos. And that scares me, because Santos had to start betting a lot of money in big drills to replace the Cooper. Ian Whitchurch
  9. FWIW I dont think Emily will be commercial. 5 meters of gross pay with "fair" oil shows isnt anything to excite me. Ian Whitchurch
  10. Serious Trader, Thats exactly the sort of momentum-related question I'm not good at. Ian Whitchurch
  11. In reply to: lyndon_webster on Wednesday 04/01/06 10:43am "Trace" is a bad word. It means there wasnt much of it. Remember, they actually havent stopped to DST anything. I think it's a miss with subeconomic oil shows. Ian Whitchurch
  12. In reply to: healyn on Monday 02/01/06 09:24am Healyn, What, Russia ? Ian Whitchurch
  13. In reply to: healyn on Sunday 01/01/06 09:30pm If you want cut-price gas off Czar Vladimir, you have to be nice to Czar Vladimir. But the problem is actually building the infrastracture to receive the gas from a third party, and piped gas will almost always be cheaper than gas shipped the same number of kilometers by LNG tanker. Ian Whitchurch
  14. In reply to: ian_whitchurch on Friday 30/12/05 04:05pm And a Ben Bernake speech from '04 ... note that he's now the Fed cheif. http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...021/default.htm "Throughout most of the 1990s, market prices of oil for delivery at dates up to six years in the future fluctuated around $20 per barrel, suggesting that traders expected oil prices to remain at about that level well into the future. Today, futures markets place the expected price of a barrel of oil in the long run closer to $39, a near doubling " is the money quote, although he does footnote that "I should acknowledge that oil futures prices have a less-than-stellar record in forecasting oil price developments, but they are probably the best guide that we have. Chinn, LeBlanc, and Coibion (2001) find that futures quotes are unbiased predictors of future spot prices, though not very accurate ones" Ian Whitchurch
  15. In reply to: wolverine on Friday 30/12/05 03:18pm I'm trying to find the old posts I made ... it appears future oil prices disappear down a memory hole. http://jec.senate.gov/_files/10FactsOilPrices.pdf should help - see figure 4. Remember, that was a 2003 report. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: Brierley on Friday 30/12/05 11:48am I'm not going to get that excited about 5 gross meters of gas in Australia. Ian Whitchurch
  17. In reply to: wolverine on Thursday 22/12/05 10:01pm Wolverine, This is the big picture. The world needs 82 million barrels a day, more or less. An average oil field declines in production by about 3% a year. The world's main fields tended to be found in the 1960s and 1970s. As far as elephants go, the 1980s werent good, and the 1990s were a disaster. In addition, as China and India industrialise, their consumption is going up by about a million barrels a day, each. I dont see any great new provinces being opened up - Mauritania is going to be lucky to do a million barrels a day, for example, and building a couple of multi-million barrel a day refineries is pretty hard to hide. Finally, OPEC appears to be happy with a USD40-50 basket price, which means USD50-60 WTI, as it's a sweeter, lighter, more popular crude than the OPEC basket. Ian Whitchurch PS Looking for old Hotcopper posts on oil futures prices.
  18. In reply to: apache123 on Thursday 29/12/05 09:00am Good deal for both sides. The Anadarko deal kept Pancon alive. This deal puts them well and truly in play. They are now a very decent punt. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: oilleak on Thursday 29/12/05 06:18pm Oilleak, I read their announcement as 'We talked the authorities into more time, and we've put a clock on OEX to come up with the money or walk'. Ian Whitchurch
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    In reply to: Brierley on Wednesday 28/12/05 07:00pm Jojo, While I agree with your general thread, at 100 bopd if Padulla was a million barrels recoverable, then it would take 10 000 days to recover ie about 30 years. Thus, I'd be reluctant to count Padulla oil as much as Worrior oil, as Worrior's oil gets monetised faster. Ian Whitchurch
  21. In reply to: amazed on Monday 26/12/05 07:26am Thats part of why I dont think it's big boys paking a position. Ian Whitchurch
  22. In reply to: oldman river on Sunday 25/12/05 08:50pm Stayed stagnant until they said what they were doing with the money ? There's a lesson in that for all of us, I think - the Australian market hates junior oilers that sit on cash. Ian Whitchurch
  23. In reply to: Boman on Thursday 22/12/05 09:13pm Boman, For the record, no I dont think it is that that has happened. I think this is all just individual punters getting set. Ian Whitchurch
  24. In reply to: apache123 on Thursday 22/12/05 10:19am F!ck ANWR. Drill Florida first - you've got a sporting chance at getting the gas into the system within 3 years. The concentration on ANWR is about the American Right getting a club to hit Greens with. Alaska isnt as good as advertised - remember Mukluk, and the North Slope never found a second field to replace Prudhoe Bay. Ian Whitchurch
  25. In reply to: apache123 on Thursday 22/12/05 08:01am Apache, The NYMEX numbers arent crysla ball gazing : they are what you need to pay if you want a barrel of oil for delivery on those dates - 20% down, rest on delivery. They are also roughly what you can hedge at, minus some commissions and such. Ian Whitchurch
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