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Everything posted by ian_whitchurch

  1. In reply to: apache123 on Monday 17/07/06 09:45am I'm not arguing that the Saudi tar mats etc are producible ... the question is what rate will they produce at, and what the OpEx and CapEx to get that flow rate are. My guy feeling - and I'm not a heavy oil reservoir engineer - as that as you need more energy to turn real sludgy into kinda sludgy into it kinda flows into it flows, they'll stop about when it gets up the pipe. This means low flow rates. This, along with Venezualan heavy oil, Canadian tar sands, biodiesel, ethanol and so on, is not a magic bullet against the Oil Crisis. But they are all little bullets that, while individually not a solution, let us get a reasonable amount of oil at a reasonable price. But that price isnt US$40 a barrel. Ian Whitchurch
  2. Yogi, Go review the release of 16 April 2004. Horizonatal wells, combined 500 meters of net pay, starting at 150-200 bopd. Woo-hooo. Then they die in the ass. Thats the reality. The forward program appears to be a bunch of vertical wells, with nothing about secondary recovery, whether water, steam, CO2 or whatever. Again, I'm asking why these vertical infill wells will come in so much better than what the field appears to maintain. Ian Whitchurch
  3. In reply to: brabus on Tuesday 11/07/06 07:45pm I wonder how much energy-equivalent there would be in 2 billion VPE share certificates ... Ian Whitchurch
  4. In reply to: capitain on Tuesday 11/07/06 06:53pm Capitain, If the wells cost USD$390k and produce at 100 bopd, then to have 120 day payback, they need to be getting 390 000/(100*120)= 390 000/12000 = 390/12 = about US$35/barrel net. This seems to be about realistic for what they should be getting, given the waxy crappy nature of Wichian Buri oil. The issue I have is that if these are just infill wells - and thats what the releases seem to imply - then how realistic is 100 bopd, given production in the rest of the field ? At 10 bopd (which is still a lot better than most WB wells do), thats 1200 day payback. Ian Whitchurch
  5. In reply to: capitain on Tuesday 11/07/06 06:02pm Capitain, "The clear realisation that the only way to extract product out of the field is via many wells – as per Shell’s experience. Given the improvement in oil pricing this is a more realistic strategy for the smaller players." My fundamental problem isn't with CVN's management, it's with the dirt. Yeah, the Pacific Tiger fiasco didnt help but there's still questions for me. For example, how much is each hole going to cost, what level of production are they expecting, how many acres per well do they think will work and - most importantly - what are they netting per barrel. I'm seeing a story - we put in more wells, rework existing wells, up production and profit - but I'm not seeing enough facts to support or deny the story. Ian Whitchurch
  6. In reply to: yogi-in-oz on Tuesday 11/07/06 03:53pm Yogi, If you want to get technical, that information actually got released in their last quarterly back in April, so I'm not sure it qualifies as 'news'. And lets see if the development wells manage to flow before we count it as good news, ok ? I'd also be interested in seeing something about the cost of each well, and their costs per barrel in Whichian Buri. Because some of us dont rely on 'greater fool theory'. Ian Whitchurch
  7. In reply to: yogi-in-oz on Tuesday 11/07/06 12:50pm *shrug* sometimes dogs go up. But it isnt the way to bet. In the same time period, COE at 25 cents was a much, much better bet. And it's gone up by more. Why ? It had fundamentals, as well as a change in market sentiment. Much, much safer to figure out whats a dog, and what isnt before you decide if a price is good or not. Ian Whitchurch
  8. In reply to: capitain on Monday 10/07/06 06:35pm I stick by what I said in July last year. It's notable that 12 months later, Wichian Buri is *still* net cash negative - and this is a high oil price environment. Note their last quarterly has production costs of $390k versus product receipts of $290k ... and thats production costs only, not including their admin costs of $249k for the quarter. Sometimes the market gets things wrong. Until we can get a look at the 3D, and see why they think the new wells will radically increase production, this is one of those cases. Ian Whitchurch
  9. In reply to: swandc on Thursday 06/07/06 01:10pm Yeah, but with $70 oil, you find a way to deal with such problems. Ian Whitchurch
  10. In reply to: monkey man on Thursday 06/07/06 12:22pm Yeah,very waxy oil has stopped developments. At least when oil was $40 a barrel. CVN's Wichian Buri is possibly the poster child for waxy oil, but Maari in NZ has got high wax content as well. Generally speaking, a rule of thumb is that heavy, waxy, sulferous and a long way from anywhere will each lose you a third of the value of oil. Ian Whitchurch
  11. In reply to: swandc on Thursday 06/07/06 09:51am Swandc, You pretty much nailed it, but lets go to the source www.emis.platts.com/thezone/guides/platts/oil/crudeoilspecs.html Basically, I wouldnt expect them to be producing the heavy crap - it's about the same standard as the stuff the Venezualans have and havent produced. The 33.8 API stuff looks acceptable, assuming it isnt packed with sulfer. Ian Whitchurch
  12. Bounty has lost it's NZ court case. Good luck to Exxaon ... me, I think Bounty should have said '1% free carry until the Development wells and this legal case goes away". Ian Whitchurch
  13. In reply to: Marsupial on Monday 26/06/06 05:09pm Yeah, it's based on the Signapore Tapis price. Basically, you ship it to Port Bonython, and it gets bought there for a price based on Tapis, and then usually shipped to Geelong or Port Botany. Stuart trucks it straight to Geelong, but thats mostly (I think) a negotiating position with Santos (ie now we proved we dont need your pipeline, quote us something realistic for using it). The reason Oz prices are based on Tapis is that if you, me or Yogi-in-Oz turn up to Singapore with a bag of cash, they will sell us a tanker full of either Tapis or Australia-blend fuel, together with a rented tanker. Thats how the small independant service stations get their fuel if Caltex or Shell dont want to play ball. Ian
  14. ian_whitchurch


    In reply to: Hollywoodpitt on Friday 16/06/06 10:43am Joelin, But before you do so, talk to a lawyer about the Insider Trading provisions of the Corporations Act. Please, please do this first. Ian Whitchurch
  15. ian_whitchurch


    In reply to: ausonic on Thursday 15/06/06 08:46pm OK, I just reviewed their shareholder presentation, and their last quarterly. I still dont see a field-by-field breakdown of production, reserves and costs. Page 8 is a screaming example of my issues with the company. "Recent pressure surveys and field review indicate 1P (Proven) reserve increased by 27%'. OK, from what, to what ? Clearly, they know. But they arent willing to nail their colors to a mast and tell either their owners, or people who might want to become their owners. As of their last quarterly, they had $8m in cash, and 480 million shares. At 14.5 cps, thats roughly a $70m company, so thats an implied $62m of value in their non-cash assets. Tell me a story. Show me where they have gas reserves that can make money, or enough oil to be material for them (which, at A$100 oil, aint much), or how much their infrastructure makes them. But tell me the story, backed up with numbers that can be proven or disproven. Ian Whitchurch
  16. In reply to: Magnatolia on Wednesday 14/06/06 05:24pm Magnatolia, Sometimes you just need to strip away the details and go to the heart of the matter. If you do want to bet on COE, get yourself a chart of the company going back three years or so, start on page one of this thread, and work your way through. Then decide if you think they are a good home for your money. But never bet money on junior oilers you arent prepared to lose. Ian Whitchurch
  17. In reply to: Magnatolia on Tuesday 13/06/06 06:45pm Magnatolia, Charts dont mean shit with junior oilers. If you must try to chart them, then at least tag the relevant news events on the time axis, and see if they explain the variations you're seeing. But you do need a knowledge of the industry to do this, so I come back to my basic point. IF YOU DONT KNOW HOW MANY LEGS A HORSE IS SUPPOSED TO HAVE, DONT BET BORROWED MONEY ON THE DAILY DOUBLE. Ian Whitchurch
  18. Magnatolia wrote "My 'plan' is to borrow $50,000 in COE and wait for 5-10c profit, which would net me around $4000-8000 (loan repayment deducted plus an estimate of $350 early repayment fee). I would like to know if you would predict the stock to go up soon, and please provide a chart showing how you came to this conclusion." Then he wrote "I've looked at these reports before and they don't make a lot of sense to me. Obviously Hartley's are recommending a strong buy at 72-145c. But can you explain to me what I should be looking for in the rest of the information. All of the technical values and things don't make sense. If you were researching one of these documents what sort of information would prompt you to consider buying stock in the company." Magnatolia, I'm putting this in caps, in the hope you read it. IF YOU DONT KNOW HOW MANY LEGS A HORSE IS SUPPOSED TO HAVE, DONT BET BORROWED MONEY ON THE DAILY DOUBLE. Spend six months learning junior oilers, tracing projects, following companies. Learn how the project cycle works, learn the difference between unrisked OOIP and one P reserves, and *then* think about investing. Until then, you might as well slap money on red or black. Ian Whitchurch
  19. In reply to: bello on Wednesday 07/06/06 02:06pm Bello, Actually, Japan's "pre wars industrial and military capacities" were pretty much pre-industrial, and based around small-batch craftsmanship rather than mass production. For example, if I can trust Wikipedia, Japan outproduced Canada in artillery (including anti-aircraft artillery) by 13000 to 10000 during the war. As a supporting quote, here's a chunk on the issue from Fuchida and Okumiya's "Midway" (*), in the 'Technological Backwardness' section of chapter 12. "It must be remembered that the people of Japan are not by nature suited to mass production work. The individual is much more inclined towards craftsmanship than toward the assembley line. As with training pilots, repairing or building warships, and all the many vital endeavours of war, so with technological developments". Ian Whitchurch (*) Fuchida was ops officer on the Akagi, while Okumiya was on the Ryujo, and later ended up in the Naval General Staff.
  20. In reply to: filament on Monday 05/06/06 05:35pm Filament, Yep. It's about capacity. Who exactly is buying it and who exactly is selling it, that isnt anywhere near as important. Ian Whitchurch
  21. In reply to: Brierley on Monday 05/06/06 03:19pm Brierly, An opinion I have held for some years - and I am a shareholder, was a shareholder back when it was Merlin and havent sold any at any point - is that if Blaemore was in Africa or 60 feet of water, it would have been drilled by now. In my opinion, it's a legitimate wildcat. Ian Whitchurch
  22. In reply to: filament on Sunday 04/06/06 10:46pm Filament, Oil of a particular quality is pretty much fungible. Lets say the US imports 3 mmbd from Iran, 3 mmd from Saudi and 9 mmbd from elsewhere. Lets say Iran exports 3 mmbd to the US, and 3 mmbd to elsewhere. Lets say the Saudis export 3 mmbd to the US, and 6 mmbd to elsewhere. Lets then say the US and Iran stop trading oil. The US then increases their imports by 3 mmbd from Saudi. The other customers then buy 3mmbd more Iranian oil, which is fortunate because they need someone to buy it. Numbers at the end, US imports from Saudi+Iran are the same, Saudi exports are the same and Iranian exports are the same. Ian Whitchurch
  23. In reply to: mick z on Monday 29/05/06 10:43pm Mick, Central was the old Merlin, with a new set of independant directors, and the Cooper Basin assets replaced with Amadeus assets. It's the same company, in short. Ian Whitchurch
  24. In reply to: pheonix on Friday 21/04/06 12:30pm Pheonix, Yeah, I agree with you. If you buy the Greater Mirage story, RPM is a better entry than ITC. Ian Whitchurch
  25. Shorter version ... 'Venezuala and Iran are OPEC hawks'. Now *thats* news only 20 years old. Ian Whitchurch
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