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disco stu

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Everything posted by disco stu

  1. I won't pump it too hard, as I know you like to DYOR But I will give you a couple links to get you started: These guys have just put out a short series of youtubes on the case for BSV. They're a Crypto fund investors who've gone long large in BSV, so obviously bias. Speaking of bias, the crypto market is nearly universally bias against BSV and especially Craig Wright. There is a reason for this and it involves more Craig claiming to be Satoshi or than ideological differences (I personally believe he was a significant, driving part of the gestalt entity known as Satoshi, being himself, Dave Klienman and Hal Finny). Basically Craig was instrumental in taking down a Crypto Anarchist called Aaron Swartz, who ended up killing himself in prison (an interesting story worth googling in itself, but a summary is included in the link below). The link is to a long, but pretty interesting account of the history of bad blood between Core & Craig Wright that extends right back to Julian Assange, Greg Maxwell & Aaron Swartz (interestingly the link and all the data including screen shots is actually hosted on the BSV blockchain). https://bico.media/39062d9fb3df9054e4df8321...ddb6c7f7741ff1b In terms of Crypto "News" you find on the internet - it is mainly a rehash of paid hacks writing and requoting what some nonce has said on twitter. Coingeek is about the only one that is reliable and worth following for objective info on the wider crypto space, including legal and tax developments. They also cover BSV extensively, but they are very pro-BSV as its owned by Calvin Ayre, who is an online gambling magnate whose poured millions into BSV (this alone should give you a hint as to one of the use cases for BSV alone). IMHO within the shallow end of the crypto community there is a massive disconnect between what people believe BSV is about and what it is about and capable of, this asymmetrical difference has resulted in a massive opportunity. Personally even if Craig didn't have a access to a single bitcoin, BSV would still be the only chain I'd be interested in - the value within the blockchain is derived from utility and use cases. Here is a list of the current projects and applications being built on BSV: https://bitcoinassociation.net/bitcoin-sv-b...ects-worldwide/ Many of these apps are utility apps - developer tools, database tools (bitbus, etc). But there's more projects going here than pretty much across the entire of the remaining crypto space. Utility will drive value - BSV is less a coin than utility token to allow activity to take place on a combined communications/data/payment protocol. Hence their motto about BSV code being set in stone - to encourage stability and development. Anyhow, there is enough there to kill a few hours.
  2. High Nipper - long time no hear - you should take a look at BSV if you have any mild interest in Crypto. I'm 100% long in it and have been since BCH forked away from it... it is actually the only chain that is delivering on what the technology promises. Very hard to find any reliable info out there via Crypto News platforms, they're all basically pump sheets for exchanges with vested interests in seeing a proliferation of coins/chains. BSV does it all, and a direct threat to most of their business models. There is an ongoing explosion of development occurring on the BSV chain. The way most people think about crypto is wrong - essentially BSV (bitcoin) should be viewed as a utility, each coin represents a forward payment to utilise the processing functions available on the chain. Essentially it is a means to monetise data right down to individual bytes. The value is derived from the utility embedded in the chain (i.e use cases) and a function of the hashing needed to defend the integrity of the chain. This technology will enable financialisation of things that people never dreamed possible before - leasing models for things like photocopiers could be done on a per photocopy basis, sliding doors making a payment every time one opens, it will even be possible for coders to receive micro payments each and every time some processing uses part of their code. For sites like this a poster could receive a micro payment everytime someone likes their post. Unlike every other bitcoin version, where due to processing capacity users compete with each other by paying fees to ensure that their transactions are processed, with BSV an unlimited scaling miners actually compete with each other to see who will process a transaction for the lowest cost.... it is essentially an infernal Red Queen's game. Anyhow, this is the space I've been in since leaving shares and sharesguru. Hope you're well. Disco
  3. disco stu

    CPL

    An interesting blog on the topic: http://refreshingnews99.blogspot.in/2013/0...-utilities.html
  4. disco stu

    CPL

    Will have to have a read Nipper, but a lot has happened in the Solar industry since 2011 and 2013, the two to three years since the book was researched and published. Solar was still much less economic even 2 years ago than compared to today - just look towards the destruction in the price of these solar co's as the price of the silicon wafers has collapsed in the interval. Don't doubt that gas is playing an important part, but the twin assault against coal by renewables and gas is very real. There will still be a need for base load capacity, but if the solar takes off and I mean really takes off in a commercial sense as opposed to just the retail space were it is currently already making a significant impact, it is entirely possible that baseload capacity will shift mainly to gas, with coal mainly as an afterthought used predominantely in those countries who are either economically backward and can't afford to upgrade to cleaner plants, or are still growing so quickly that they can't afford to decommission their old plants. Regardless of who comes out on top, be it renewables or gas, the impact on the demand for coal cannot be understated. Check out what the Eddison Institute have to say on it in the link below.
  5. disco stu

    CPL

    Guy's, while I have been a long time fan of coal and CPL in particular, what is happening with CPL is re-occuring right across the industry. Believe it or not, the biggest threat isn't gas, it is actually renewable energy, although combined together they pose an extreme threat to our second largest export industry. Basically the gist is this, with the crash in solar prices it is now economical for people to buy solar panels and install them on their roofs. This is having the flow on effect of reducing peak electricity demand, which also happens to coincide with when the Utilities make the most of their profit. Nowday's peak energy demand is occuring on the hottest days and is being driven by airconditioner demand. The impact of this is that in order to maintain profits, and making it harder for them to maintain all their infrastructure for their baseload capacity. Utilities are then being forced to increase their prices outside of those peaks, which in turn is encouraging more users to install solar pannels, micro turbines and the like, which further reduces utilties profits - basically the industry is now caught in a negative feedback loop that they cannot escape. Effectively this has broken a business model that has been in place for over 100years. So far the main uptakers of solar has been at a retail level, now while this may seem insignificant with one imagining only a few pannels dotted across the occassional roof, the truth is it is been incrementally enormous. The things is, so far this trend has been confined to the retail level - there has been no significant uptake at the commercial level. Just think of the number of factory roofs that could be covered with these pannels. This posses a huge threat not only to companies like CPL, but also to countries like Australia. Taken together with the increased availability of cleaner energy in the form of gas from fracking, we are really fracked. This is not the thoughts of some dolphin kissing green group or professor crackpot from up in the hills, this is the assessment coming through from the industry itself: http://www.eei.org/ourissues/finance/Docum...echallenges.pdf The utilities are aware of it, the CEO of Duke energy came out and basically said "Renewable energys has f*cked our industry" at a recent US energy conference, and consequently they've just formed the Duke energy renewable division. The large resource Co's are aware of it (heard the one about RIO looking at selling down its interest in Allied Coal?) CPL while having a great resource and huge potential under the old paradigm, is going to come out a loser as is Australia. Food for thought.
  6. Yesterday's move was nearly identical to BPT's move yesterday when it announced initial gas flows (that while still quite good) somehow managed to disappoint the market. It spooked the market and potential shale gas explorers sold off near universally. From the last Qtrly cashflow statement there easily be sufficient cash reserves to run the company until June of this year (although it admittedly it would be getting very tight by then). In general NWE's cash forecasting tends to be on the conservative side, (generally) coming in below forecast. IMHO a CR is most likely to occur around April/May of this year... not that I will be particularily happy with the timing as for the past couple years this has also coincided with when the market chooses to sell off. Still it gives a reasonable window for NWE to get some good news out between now and then.
  7. Cheers Triage, some interesting articles in there, although I am afraid I don't share your conviction that Japan will avoid a default, but I agree that it may be able to put the moment off longer than is expected. I suspect the Japanese solution, given the relative homoginised nature of their population while be to nationalise the pensions and savings (amongst a raft of other emergency measures). Interesting thing is that the decisions that get made today, subject to either political objectives or the unfortunate outcomes of financial repression (debt based economies), tend to lock in the demographic profiles of the future and hence the inescapable economic environment of the future. It is interesting that China's one child policy means that China's population is scheduled to start declining by 2026 and that by 2050 it's working age poulation is likely to be half of what it is today. The Asian century has definately gotten off too a bang, but it is likely to end end all too soon, greying in the armchairs of a retirement home.
  8. disco stu

    TTE

    Good to hear Arty, I have a swag of these in the bottom draw. Holds some pretty big acreage in the Perth basin that could benefit from NWE's drilling campaign. That said NWE isn't moving in the right direction today, so maybe it has more to do with it's US Allen Dome's goings ons. Regardless, up is better than down (for this one at least).
  9. disco stu

    MHM

    Yeah, have bought a few more sub 30 heads myself today. That is it though now, next step I would like to see once these options are cleaned up and exercised would be a rights issue to raise a further $10/$15m to add too working capital and to see the US plant through to completion.
  10. Sorry, not meaning to continue banging on about it, but I had to duck out before I could finish pontificating. In your previous post you expressed surprise at the fact that the media had so taken up the cause of the NBN, while failing to get to excited by two other equally wasteful programs, being the Joint Strike Fighter and the submarine. Have you ever considered why that might be so interested in the NBN? Realistically who will be the main beneficiaries of the increased capacity - why it will be the content providers, media companies of course. They're the guys who are really going to benefit. They're going to get a carriage capable of providing as much data volume as may ever be required, all with the added benefit of not having to fork over a single brass razoo. The cost for this Rolls Royce development will all be socialised and picked up by the public purse - I mean which of our private media barrons would be silly enough to develop it by themselves with the risk of being forced to have to share it. So there is one plausible explanation for why the media is so keen on the NBN at any price? Public pick up the tab, media Barron's make out like bandits.... now where was I reading about Alan Kohler selling his online content provider and joining their ranks? But then I might just be a tad too cynical here... Anyhow, back to the wastelands.
  11. Maybe I'm a bit thick as it really isn't very obvious to me - no dissagreement from me that the roll out of some form of NBN will be a great opportunity for Australia, but there is no point in overpaying for it.... opportunity at any cost isn't always the most sensible decision. It is a bit like buying an unlimited number of lottery tickets in order to win $1m - pretty soon the cost of those tickets is going to greatly exceed the opportunity of winning the prize. That's precisly my issue - neither the risk nor the reward have been appropriately measured. As nipper has pointed out, the Govt has effectively agreed to fund the project with an open cheque book, there is a huge risk that the technology could well be superflous in the near future (just look at how quickly wifi is developing). There was little public debate over the need for the NBN or fleshing out how we should go about building it and the best way to do it. The decision was made on the fly by Rudd and his Troika of advisors, and has been Conroy's favorite pet project ever since. The "build it, and they will come" concept is all fine and dandy, but it could well shape up to be little more than a field of dreams with a very expensive price tag attached to it, handed over to the next generation along with all the mountains of debt we're saddling them with by way of HECS, Home Loans, unfunded pension liabilities.... the list goes on - but at least they'll be able to get a quick internet speed when the time comes for them to do a bit of research to find out who and how they ended up that way. I'm pretty sure that the younger generation would agree that they'd prefer not to be saddled with an enormous debt, simply because a couple politicians and their shills have hitched their reputation to it as their favorite bloated vanity project. It's not like where about to enter the technological dark ages and if we don't roll this network out asap the technology and knowhow to roll anything out will be lost forever, and future generations will be left scrabbling around with slide rulers and carrier pigeons. Not to sure what the argument about our crappy subs and the ridiculous joint strike fighter has to do with whether or not we should go ahead with the NBN - I mean why go ahead with one bad decision simply because the muppets in charge have made previous bad decisions (I'd be quite happy to see a serious review on both the sub program and the fighter program as well, as imho just like the NBN in its current form, both are seriously flawed). Rolling back the scope of the NBN is nothing like shelving it in it's entirety, and despite the eloquence of Alan K's writting, imho he has failed to make a sufficient strong case against Malcolm's arguement.and some form of rollback of the NBN.
  12. True - and who have been previous holders of that esteemed title - Microsoft for one. Indeed the biggest telecommunications Co pre Apple, was Nokia, where is it now? Nothing lasts forever, and once the intellectual assets that Steve Jobs built up within Apple begins to disperse, so too will Apples current dominance.... but this is an arguement for another day. My biggest problem with the NBN is that the Govt is trying to deliver a Rolls Royce solution to the whole of Australia, where the majority of the cost to be incurred in building it, is going to be trying to reach the last 20% of the population. It is possible, just possible that somewhere out past Goolgowi there is some brilliant nerdy kid who could well lead to the development of the worlds next Apple Co - but chances are, such a mega nerd, if he exists, is still going to find a way to get connected to the net, even with out a fiber optic cable to his doorstep. It is the opportunity cost that troubles me most. The money that is going to be spent on connecting this last 20% of the population could be far better spent providing other much needed services and infrastructure to this same unserved 20% of the population, who would get far more benefit from improved access to roads, water and health, than fiber optic cable capable of downloading porn at a rate of 2g/sec. If they really wanted to ensure that this segment didn't miss out, give them the opportunity to claim a tax rebate for the cost of alternative means of connecting to the net. The other problem I have, is that even when I speak to a lot of my IT friends is that they're generally of the opinion that the NBN is a vast waste of money. Many of them echo the same points made by Nipper that the dynamics of demand in this area are changing so fast and subject to such technological change, that it is quite possible we're spending vast sums of money building something that is likely to end up as enormous white elephant that will need to be maintained. Imagine if power companies continued to extrapolate growth in electricity usage from the 60s and 70s and demanded that we built a network capable of satisfying forecast future demand 30 years into the future. We would have gotten to 2000 and be living in a forest of power poles and substations, forking out a fortune each year to maintain a network that is only being used to a fraction of it's potential due to power usage plateauing yonks ago.
  13. A bit of "leakage" to the market yesterday by the looks of todays announcement:
  14. Nice to see - you didn't get shaken out the other day when it touched 9.8c? I bought a tad more MYGOA's at lunch - spent 10 minutes widdling my order up by 0.1c to grab the 50k parcel at 6.4c, then was gunna buy a few more in another portfolio and by the time I'd written the deal, someone else snaffled all that was left between 6.4c and 7c... grrrrr
  15. disco stu

    AVB

    Curious - don't often seem much movement in my bottom draw, never complain when I do though. Wonder what has caused the excitment.
  16. disco stu

    MHM

    Was enough for me to grab a few after lunch - back to having a small position vs none.
  17. disco stu

    CCC

    I keep a small amount of CCCO's in my portfolio (the residual of a much larger position) to remind me to never, ever, ever again invest in any South African company.
  18. Hi Arty, looking like it might be getting ready to attack 10c... didn't quite get my option order filled this morning
  19. disco stu

    MHM

    Hi mme, I agree that from a LT perspective the latest news had some positive items. However in the medium term I believe MHM's shareprice will remain under significant pressure at least until the end of the month when the options expire, but more likely until the questions regarding funding are sorted. I would not be surprised to see the s/prce decline further and the options expire near worthless if the funding questions are not resolved soon. The improvement in tonnage processed is encouraging, but MHM has already recognised and received the tollage income from material that has been delivered to its site, hence processing it will not contribute anything additional to its upcoming funding requirements. Debt funding will be out of the question until the profitability improves significantly, and this improvement is reflected in audited financial statements. This cannot occur until they start processing the landfill material - which has 11 thousand tonnes or so of partly processed material sitting on top of it. Although I continue to watch this stock with interest, as I believe that it has the potential to deliver in the LT, I see no reason to hurry back into another position with it until questions as to it's funding are resolved.
  20. Lots of potential with this Co. Lots of eyes on it too.
  21. I dunno EB, why did he just stop at promising to save the EUR? He could have at least offered to find us a cure for Cancer, as well as world peace in our times.
  22. Dued - you mentioned jews & nazis = #1 way to make people feel uncomfortable!!! Actually was a nice lead into the telegraph article. Target2 is a big concern...
  23. He is a mate and I have referred to his views occassionally either here, at SG or via some private other conversation, I tend to post on all three and all the threads tend to blur into one. Frankly I have neither the time nor inclination to go back through all my posts to try and see if I am right or wrong, but feel free to go ahead (I don't really give a shit). I tend to post when I either don't agree with something (who needs another member of some cheer squad, be it China or some other subject?), or when I find something interesting.... it just so happens I found the conversation and my friends insights interesting, although in hindsight I would have probably shared the insights via other private conversations or observations, than via a public forum, of which I already regret. Had I more time when I posted the comment I might have phrased it more eloquently and less dissagreeably to the innumerable Sinophiles out there, or perhaps may have thought better of it and deleted it entirely. I haven't always held universally bearish views about China. I will admit that I have been more bearish towards China recently, but then I have been more bearish for ALL the major economies recently. Frankly I find it amusing how some posters to this forum and others take any negative economic post about the Great China Economic miracle as though it were some racial slight against Chinese or Asians in general by perfidious Western gwai los, plotting to blight the blue skys of China's rightful time in the sun. Not putting you in that camp EB, but since our conversation is including the topic of observational bias I thought I might mention it anyway. So yeah, I am probably somewhat bearish towards China at the moment, but as I said, I am bearish towards ALL the major economies at the moment. Including China amongst them doesn't make me a member of some anti-China cabal, or some mindless zombie follower of say the likes of Michale Pettis, a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management (whose temerity extends to living and teaching in China first hand, while daring to utter criticisms as to its economic policies, mon dieu!), or Jim Chanos, who uncovered Enron and made billions from daring to say "Sell" while everyone all around him continued to say "Buy", or Hugh Henry who made billions doing just the same, or even our very own John Hempton who as made plenty of dough along the way (how else do you get to afford to live in Bronte) as well as uncovered Australia's biggest ponzi scheme/super fraud. I realise that dropping those names could leave me open to pushing an "anti-China" agenda of only referring to commentators who are bearish on China, so for good measure I will also mention Steven Keen, noted Australian economist who is highly skeptical of the Australian housing market and banking system, not to mention critic of European economic policies, Paul Krugman, the noble economics prize winner who is also highly critical towards European and US economic leaders and policies (not to mention other economists), Carmen M Reinheart author of "This time it's different: 500 years of financial folly" (except for China of course) or Oliver Mark Hartwich who is propogating absurd ideas that Germany could be sowing the seeds for its own economic catastrophy. I could also post numerous news links to articles that point to economic weakness in leading indicators for Germany, Australia, China and the US, although some of them would be Bloomberg articles, which of course could be difficult to read... if you were in China.
  24. Have a Chinese friend here at work who returns home several times a year. After GFC he laughed at suggestion that China could slow, each time he returned saying everything was still going okay. Trip before last he was still more positive than most market commentators. He got back yesterday and was speaking to him and said there was a marked change in attitude - all his friends are talking about is how difficult it is doing business atm, hard to get funding, businesses not paying. One mate in particular, who owns a lubrication distributing business (industrial not personal ) says getting payment for sales is nigh on impossible. The companies buying are saying to him, we aren't getting paid and your just small fry, we can't even pay ourselves so why should we pay you. Incongrously, at the same time as he was saying there was this new down beat attitude, the bars are still packed and people are still spending obscene amts of money, although the difference now is that it is being borrowed on the expectation that it will be repaid when the govt releases the taps.... also said not to trust the Govt statistics, he reckons a half case of imported beers has gone from $50 to $60 in 6mths since he was there last. Anyhow, all heresay.
  25. http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2012/...leptocracy.html
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