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happy2

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Everything posted by happy2

  1. happy2

    THE T.A. WAY

    Patterns can work for us in at least two ways. They can work as entry points or confirmation of a trend. Below are a descending triangle and a symmetrical triangle. The descending triangle tells us that the market is to go down. The symmetrical triangle is confirmation of a trend and can be found in both uptrends and down trends.
  2. Here is a descending triangle/
  3. The link I posted below does not appear to work. Try this link for the videos. http://forexdiamonds.com/performance.htm
  4. I have been watching some videos of live trades which are run by this guy Felix. He trades the news and has his computer right on the button. This guy charts the movement in seconds, not minutes, but seconds. On Wednesday, when trading the PPI in the GBP/USD some of the subscribers made up to 120 pips profit. Not sure how much they are putting on, but Felix's off sider exclaimed he just made a fortune when the market moved. The length of their trades are about 30 seconds. Anyway, the this link should give you access to the videos of the trades and explanations about what they are expecting in the trades. http://forexdiamonds.com:80/performance.htm
  5. happy2

    Dow Jones

    QUOTE On Thursday the market should continue to benefit from the traditional tendency of stocks to post gains ahead of the holidays, a so-called "Santa Claus" rally. In addition, sentiment should benefit from hopes that the vigorous mergers activity seen in 2006 will continue into 2007, according to Charles Campbell, senior sales trader at Miller Tabak. "With only eleven days remaining in 2006, M&A continues to demonstrate vibrancy across sectors and across borders," he said. "Many of the dynamics that contributed to this impressive M&A environment in 2006 appear in place for the new year," Campbell said, adding that "investors appear increasingly confident of this dynamic as well." Several deals on Wednesday fueled this confidence.--- Marketwatch
  6. happy2

    Dow Jones

    In reply to: filament on Friday 22/12/06 12:41am Filament, You raise a valid point. Those climbs were high. I had a look at the monthly charts to see what the range of the Sept.98- May 99 climb was before its correction. It went from a low of 7400 to a high of 11130. This is a 50% hike from the low to the high; a 3730 move up. The correction came back to 9765 according to the chart below. This is 1365pts in the month of May 99. Percentage wise that was a phenomenal bull run. Personally find it very difficult to see the current run to match that percentage wise. Currently the market has gone from a low of 10683 to 12498 which is 1815pts and 17%. It maybe that the bull run could extend to a 3730pt move, which is what you are suggesting with 30% upside. djiaa_us_price_monthly.11aug98_to_01jul99
  7. happy2

    Dow Jones

    Data from the 8.30 news doesn't appear to have affected the markets much at this point. Just knocked the edge of the futures that's all and brought it back to yesterday's close.
  8. happy2

    Dow Jones

    Crow, I just looked at the rate of ascent that the DOW climbed before the corrections mentioned below. You will see that May correction was climbed at 53% angle. The earlier two identified were at 70% and 62%. The current bull run is running up at 60%, and it has been more sustained than the previous bull runs, as you mentioned. Can't go on forever.
  9. happy2

    Dow Jones

    In reply to: crowman28 on Thursday 21/12/06 11:36pm Well, I suppose that is why early birds has been keen on a Christmas Crash to make some Cash. That is a good point, Crow. Looking at the weekly charts, the current bull run is looking like it is about exhaust.
  10. In reply to: AJ_ on Thursday 21/12/06 10:56pm AJ, it is possible to subscribe to feeds where you can get instant news. Even then living here in Oz you are going to be behind the 8 ball, I would imagine. The banks have an advantage in the currency game when it comes to news. Still, from what many people tell me, if you have the right stops in place and can read the market, some quick money to be made. Those sites you have found have some good information on them for beginners. As far as forex goes I would class myself as a beginner. So I will read up on them. Thanks for that, AJ.
  11. happy2

    FTSE 100

    In reply to: sugarman on Thursday 21/12/06 10:43pm Sugarman, the market is currently down on last nights close. So if the market closes around these current levels of 6180, this will represent four down days. If the news out of the states at 8:30 New York time is positive then we will finish in the green. I will want to be long. If it is negative, I with you and will go short.
  12. In reply to: crowman28 on Thursday 21/12/06 10:24pm Crow, I war reading on one site that the spreads were too much. Evidently, this is when the news comes out and when everybody is trying to get on. Apparently a 3pt spread can become a 30pt spread very quickly.
  13. happy2

    FTSE 100

    In reply to: sugarman on Thursday 21/12/06 10:23pm Sugarman, you make money and I make money, even when we take a different view. Anyhow I pointed out I went long and closed my trade and could have gone short but had other things to do. Here is a possible double bottom, in which I will go long if this holds up.
  14. happy2

    Dow Jones

    In reply to: crowman28 on Thursday 21/12/06 10:26pm I was just having a look at the rally before Christmas last year and noticed that it was 700pts up, whereas this year it has only been 400pts. Percentage wise this is about half the size because of the ratio differences. Not a bad idea about picking up interest over the holiday period.
  15. In reply to: crowman28 on Thursday 21/12/06 10:01pm That easy, you reckon Crow?
  16. happy2

    Dow Jones

    In reply to: crowman28 on Thursday 21/12/06 10:03pm Crow, you are right there was a 200pt short during the last week of trade for2005. Then there was a 400pt move down in mid-Jan.
  17. happy2

    FTSE 100

    Only had the one trade early on this. Took 14pts. The second trade was beckoning but didn't get to take it. There were two entry points. When I got back I just missed on entering a second trade going long at 6184. Wasn't prepared to hop on board until market confirmed stronger move.
  18. happy2

    Dow Jones

    In reply to: crowman28 on Thursday 21/12/06 05:37pm I couldn't tell you when would be the best time to short right now, Crow. However, whenever you think there might be a top then that would be the best time. Whatever is in the data night might give us a clue. Mid-January was the time to hop on board earlier this year.
  19. GBP/USD moved down. But how to play it?
  20. happy2

    Dow Jones

    Important data coming out tonight which should move the market.
  21. happy2

    FTSE 100

    In reply to: happy2 on Monday 18/12/06 11:18pm QUOTE On Monday we made the following assessment The FTSE appears to have hit a resistance level. It will need to push through otherwise it will probably drop back to 6200 or lower to find support for another attempt to push through. The FTSE has kindly obliged and done as expected. McLaren says that if it moves down more than four days, then it will continue down. As the chart below shows, the market has moved down three days to the levels we estimated if it didn't push through resistance. Tonight should tell us which direction the market is going to go. y__ftse_price_daily.16oct06_to_21dec06
  22. Here we have a play for the GBP/USD courtesy of Felix from the secret society: 1. Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (9:30 am LondonTime) UK We have two important reports coming out of the UK. We have GDP & Current Account coming out. Both are capable of moving GBP/USD by 30 to 50 pips. What happens if they conflict? The whipsaw massacre happens. Then you say, why not wait for both of them, and only trade if they don't conflict? Well...imagine one of these reports gets released 2 seconds faster than the other, and the first one already moved the market by 30-40 pips, and you see that the 2nd one doesn't conflict, and you enter at the top or bottom of the maxed out move...no good. GDP is a little bit bigger caliber report, but a very steady one with minimal deviations. Current account is a bit smaller caliber, but the deviations can be crazy. What I will do is look for a shock on the GDP number, a shock so strong, that it will make the current account look irrelevant. So GDP is expected to come out at 0.7%. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 0.5% or less, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. But the chances of such deviations are slim to none.
  23. Here is what this guy felix does from the secret society. New Zealand GDP was an absolute beauty. It moved NZD/USD by about 50 pips, and moved AUD/NZD by about 90 pips. Unfortunately, I got in a bit too late on both pairs due to a small technical glitch. Regardless of the late fill, I gave an exit on AUD/NZD with about +25 to 30 pips profit, and I gave an exit on the NZD/USD pretty much at break even, but ended up taking a loss of about -10 pips, because of 15 pips spread. It definitely could've been a MUCH more profitable trade though. You can watch the video here: http://forexdiamonds.com/performance.htm
  24. happy2

    THE T.A. WAY

    By Bryce Gilmore of http://www.wavetrader2004.com * Posted: September 1, 2006 Trading is a job that is not simple for the novice who thinks that the futures markets are just a guessing game or that he or she just has to back test data and apply systems to trade it successfully. Even the best mechanical systems are bound to "BLOW UP" a trading account within four years of beginning to trade it. And, these days, that happens a lot faster. The safe way to trade is to understand the major players and their habits for taking trades in one direction or the other. To understand whether the market is offering you an opportunity to take easy profits from its behavior you must learn the habits of the successful traders who are there everyday. The only people who can teach you these methods are people who have been in the business for a long time. Unfortunately, the novice runs through a gauntlet of people who claim they know what they are talking about. Some of these people have even been around the industry for a long time, but many of them are not traders. Personally, I would not listen to anyone unless I saw this person demonstrate his or her method in REAL TIME. If the method is good, the presenter should be able to nominate trading opportunities in advance. This person must also be able to demonstrate the mentality you have to have to become a successful trader. When I look around at the traps these days, I see and hear of so many "not worth a pinch" trading systems being promoted on the Internet. So, my advice to any newcomer is to research all these promoters before you part with a penny. I have been in this business as a trader and educator for more than 25 years, so I know what I am talking about. Have the company demonstrate some of its trading methods in real time for you to see if they work. You will quickly determine whether the method has merit and save yourself a lot of heart break in the future.
  25. QUOTE I just want to know the secret handshake. Trav, try either of these two at the honoured society. cartez@optusnet.com.au felix@secretforexsociety.com
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