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stockpanther

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Everything posted by stockpanther

  1. stockpanther

    NOD

    In trading halt right now..
  2. stockpanther

    NOD

    getting hammered latley..
  3. I got in at $3.77 yesterday....was thinking about buying at 3.37 this morning again, probably should have....will wait and see where this runs over the next few days
  4. stockpanther

    NOD

    should've kept loading up at under $2.70!! bugger!! Anyways it's nice to see the green on the scorecard after only a few weeks.
  5. stockpanther

    NOD

    Totally agree MFJ. Seems like this drop in the share price may have been instigated by director sales to some extent? If so, I'm not too worried: - Yes the ex-owner of McGrath Homes sold 7m of stock, but he placed it with insto's who would've done their DD before accepting. Mr McGrath still owns about 7m of stock as well....so i'm not worried - The AGM occurred around this time also - The presentation seems tops with strong growth simply flagged here - No big contract announcements lately - but not all that worried, still have the 54m contract from August and growth across other areas of the business. I'm sure there is another one in the works. I agree - I feel an outperform for this one. Bought some more today - if the price falls sub-$2.60 I will be looking to buy a few more.
  6. stockpanther

    CRH

    I agree guys - I hopped into this one the other week. Hasn't moved too much for me yet, but have a decent chunk invested for a long term hold.
  7. stockpanther

    NOD

    I took a small position at $2.64 this morning. Bit nervous about catching a falling knife, but provided there is nothing that we aren't being told, this one looks like it is certainly back in buying range. P/e of 13 and company statements that they are targeting NPAT growth between 35-45% for the next 2 years.
  8. Picked up a few of these the other day at 80cents. Company is growing at a rapid pace, but has taken a beating lately - fortunately the CEO has pumped about 1.5mil of his own money into the company - surely this is a good sign?
  9. haha - go on stick the elbow in again http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif I was on the pricing discrepancy theory until that beautiful announcement on 22/12. It was a ripper IMO - got me to load up on more at least.
  10. stockpanther

    ISS

    I actually sold 2/3 of my holding 72% in a month was ridiculous, i was happy to take some profits. Crystal - I don't follow TA at all...but am interested in knowing what a flag is? is it good or bad?
  11. QUOTE (nipper @ Thursday 04/01/07 03:52pm) I only just started back up in direct shares investment at the beginning of August. I take a fundamental approach and don't invest in miners, energy or biotechs. My return since August has been 85% (without leverage) and was achieved through returns on the following 5 stocks: - EPY +23 - RHD +36% - RPC -9% - ISS +70% - ESS +42% Obviously I reinvested the proceeds from EPY and RHD into ISS and ESS to generate the 85% gain. Going forward? - stick with my strategy - buy purely on fundamentals and fundamentals only, and don't engage in those sectors that I don't understand. I still hold ESS, 1/3 of my ISS holding and have recently purchase a clothes distributor turnaround in ATG.
  12. stockpanther

    CNC

    A fall from grace this one.. Austin Group Limited (ATG) is a clothing retail company involved in the design, import and wholesale of clothing. ATG has operations in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong. current SP 32c market cap $20m EPS history - cps H1 H2 FY 2000-06-30 1.8 0.4 2.2 2001-06-30 1.3 0.8 2.1 2002-06-30 2.7 2.6 5.2 2003-06-30 4.7 2.1 6.8 2004-06-30 4.2 2.5 6.8 2005-06-30 4.6 1.8 6.4 2006-06-30 2.4 -4.7 -2.3 ************** I'm in at $0.32. I actually had this one on the radar at $0.28 but was too slow to act...plus my experience with purchasing 'turn arounds' is limited so I guess I've been quite cautious with this one. I've got a whole heap of rationale behind the call that I'll post behind the decision....but etrade has decided to deny me of my right to company information temporarily!!...so the detail will have to wait. ATG aren't brilliant, but even in the shocking year they just had they still produced something like $1mil of operating cashflow after subtracting cap spend. (I think this was something like $5mil before) Halfyearly will be interesting to see if the much talked about recovery has materialised, but I think this company is worth a buy at $20m. That's all I've got for now.
  13. stockpanther

    ISS

    ISS is runnin' hot isnt it?
  14. IMO an EXCELLENT announcement yesterday. Why? - ESS indicated automation would be a primary growth driver for the business going forward - Automation revenue in last FY was approx 2 mil from memory - this announcement says that essa has secured a 7 mil automation contract (subject to pre-acceptance testing) - ESS have indicated in the past that automation is a higher margin part of their business - to me this seems like excellent delivery on a key growth strategy. - Revenue for last FY was 23mil - Before this announcement revenue is indicated to be up 35% this FY I'm thinking about buying some more at these levels....a nice little growth story going on here, surprised the SP only increased by 5%. The announcement... The Directors of Essa Australia Limited (“Essa†or the “Companyâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ) are pleased to report that the Company has made favourable progress regarding two of its strategic business development initiatives. Essa previously stated with the release of its 2006 financial results that it intended to target and pursue growth opportunities in a number of key areas including: • further geographic expansion in growth markets overseas, especially Russia; and • growth in laboratory automation equipment, a new developing market with favourable long term industry trends. Essa is now pleased to announce that, through its Russia distributor, the Company has been awarded a A$1 million order to supply a complete sample preparation system to a gold mining customer in east Russia. This order is indicative of both the potential of Essa’s products in the Russian resources sector and also the acceptance of these products in such a rugged environment. Ongoing sales are expected, with Essa offering continued support to its distributor and developing a suitable supply chain in Russia for the Company’s wear parts. Increasing Essa’s recurring revenue base in this manner is also a stated growth objective of the Company. In the key growth area of laboratory automation, Essa advises that it has secured the supply of a $7 million laboratory automation system to a world leading laboratory group. The system is to be supplied during 2007 and is subject to pre-contract acceptance testing due for completion in May 2007. This exciting development is the result of extensive design work over the last 12 months in conjunction with Essa’s automation partner, FLS Automation of Denmark, to produce a versatile modular laboratory automation system which can be offered to a broad spectrum of end users.
  15. this one looking good crookers. nice announcement today.
  16. It will be interesting to see if there has been much growth in the automation part of the business over the first 6 months of this FY. Seems like a huge potential market out there - if ESS can pull it off they could win some big deals!!
  17. well reading the broker reports on the website is answering a few of my questions. I guess really need to decide if this i going to happen or not: We are forecasting a NPAT of $4.2m and $5.1m in FY07 and FY08 respectively. Our FY07 forecasts are in line with management’s guidance. Our estimates are based on the following assumptions: § Automotive protection: Growth in sales from the introduction of new product lines, i.e. sports bars, trade racks and heavy truck bars. We assume meaningful benefits such as a reduced cost base and cross selling across customers will arise from the integration of ECB bull bars with Barjo Bars. (+$1.1m FY07 EBIT) § Diagnostic testing: Offshore expansion and the introduction of the digital dyno in the Diagnostic Testing division should drive gains in this division. We also expect improved margins from the newly established subcontracted US assembly plant. (+$0.9m FY07 EBIT) § Warranty and repair services: We expect expansion into out of work warranty work and a reduction of expenses will be the key earnings driver in this segment. (+$0.6m FY07 EBIT) § Consumables: Expansion of promotion and distribution of paint products and growth in sales from improved market conditions should drive earnings improvement in this division. We also expect gross margin and operating expenses will improve. (+$0.6m FY07 EBIT) § Corporate costs: We assume $1.0m in corporate costs due the new company structure.
  18. Initial investigations look promising crookers - the company certainly seems cheap....why would this be? - Perhaps first year of listing so reliable audited financial statements arent available? (I have not yet read the prospectus to see if they are included in there?) - The motor industry has been a tough one in recent times (ION bust, increased competitiveness from cheap asian manufacturing - not sure if AMA have much exposure to these types of risks?) pretty big increase in profitability being predicted from EBIT of about 3.4 mil to NPAT of 4.2mil thats a huge increase - can we be confident that management can deliver on this? Just a few of my initial ramblings....I do like the cheap price, but perhaps some of these uncertainties are why the SP is being discounted to the rest of the market?
  19. All good crookers - you never want to overpay for a company so you're better off taking the cautious approach IMO!! Liz - I think your NPAT figures are definately achievable based on the guidance provided by management - $2.5m NPAT equates to eps of 5.7cps.....if this was to happen we'll definatly see the share price sale north of 60c. I always seem to take a very pesimistic "worst-case scenario" approach to my investments...in light of this here is my postings from sharetrader for the benefit of others!! Well guys - it is nice to hear some decent news to confirm our beliefs!! up 28% in the last month! ****** No surprises in this announcement... I think we can conservatively extrapolate the first half and say that full year EBIT will not be lower than $3mil, less about 200k for interest (remember STACE was partially funded by debt so i've just picked a conservative higher amount), less $800k in tax gives NPAT of $2m (4.5cps). This is conservative I believe because: - my extrapolation only accounts for 6 months of earnings from STACE - my extrapolation uses the low side of guidance provided (management have stated at least $1.5mil EBIT of 1H07 Based on the guidance, my personal view is I would be happy with (and I think ESS will achieve this) full year NPAT of about $2.2mil (or 5cps) which is just below my previous estimate of 5.2cps. I think we are looking at anywhere between 4.5cps (worst case) and 5.5cps (good case) We have probably cashed in on the best part of the pricing discrepancy now I think, but I'll continue to hold as the price is still good, the company has solid growth potential and their management have demonstrated that ability to run a profitable organisation year after year.
  20. Crookers - AMA does look promising. I'm quite busy atm so give me a few days to take a look in more detail. Anyways on ESS...slowly ticking along, just what i like to see. Keep holding and being patient and we will all be rewarded!
  21. A correction of last years first half problems, and a little bit of growth had me predicting EPS at around 5.1-5.2cps. This is excluding the STACE acquisition so I believe there is some safety in this EPS prediction I hav emade. That is approx 25% growth in EPS and I think the ESS will be re-rated to a forward P/E of around 10....pushing the share price forward to about 55c come the end of this financial year. Based on my purchase price: - 9.2% yield (I have grossed this up for imputations) - 41% capital growth Plenty of safety here to make some money - investing in these small caps in a good market seems like stealing candy from a baby?!?! Don't know why more people don't focus on value investing in proftiable small caps in a market like this one? Liz - your 75c valuation may very will be right...IMO it is probably a top end prediction for this financial year, but trust me I'd like it to be hit http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif I do believe however, that it demonstrates the safety inherent in ESSs current SP.
  22. I took a position at start of Nov in ESS. Bugger all sellers out there at the moment! ISS is my other core holding at the moment - worth a look guys!!
  23. stockpanther

    RGD

    i bailed out at 34c i think it is (disclosed this on another forum - can pm the name if anyone wants to question my credibility!). Taking a look at this one again, but geez they screwed up bad 7-9mil loss in 1/2 year.
  24. "My cost base on these is currently 41.9c, I must admit I thought the share price would be at about 50c by now - which only worries me from the point of 'have i missed something?'" Perhaps I'm not so worried now!
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