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Everything posted by Dave_vic_ozz

  1. Agree and agree. BUT - Rejection hurts. The rest of the EU would be horrified. Little gain long term, surely? Dave
  2. Thoughts-- No one is really visionary. No one group is in charge. Each group of USA finance (Read also EU finance) does their own thing and everyone else counter reacts. Tail is wagging the dog. HTH Dave
  3. Budget cuts = less money floating around. Or QE^n to address the imbalance.
  4. Bullish yes, Looking at everything. Corner house close by so I can put an 8 car garrage on it that looks like a unit. Convert it to a house and flog them both off after I'm too old to care or the wife forces me to live in it. Never enough space. House prices doing nothing. All good.
  5. Sette, Can you please organise a few factories to come up cheaply before Christmas? Close to home would be good too. Dave
  6. So talking to a mate who sells a consumable to miners that is required for drilling. He noticed, looking back at AU sales that about 2 months ago there was a sudden decline in orders for product. He sells into Austalasia so it really wasn't immediately obvious local sales dried up. A few inquiries suggest drilling has stopped rather than competition offering an alternate supply. I will dig a little deeper. (no pun intended) Hope this helps.
  7. Nipper, Guar, once cross linked, turns to jelly and it expands in size. You can pump it with sand and it turns to gel in the frac helping the sand mover further from the drill site and forcing the opening to expand further for an hour or two after pumping stops. Like blowing expandible foam into a plastic bag. It keeps growing after you stopped spraying it in. Options are to pump longer without the Guar. Lots of people looking for a substitute but it has to be very cheap to compete, even at this price. BTW it is used in shampoo (think high viscous liquids) and food products. I am lead to believe there are a lot of crops planned.
  8. http://t.co/qemuXq7a Soros - Germany has 3 options. 1. Do nothing beyond what is planned as of today - result. PIIGS become second class citizens. 2. Get out of EMU. Short disruption, long term benefits for all. 3. Stay in EMU and hand out cash like no tomorrow. Make everyone equal again. P.S. Has Soros betted on -ve German bonds? - does he want Germany out of EMU????
  9. Thanks for that. Some of the best 45 minutes of 2012 I have spent on trying to understand this world, frankly. No hysterics or spin, just the way it is. Notes on the books he spoke of. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Think_and_Grow_Rich http://www.frumi.com/images/uploads/thefouragreements.pdf
  10. My view. EU is too fractured to kick Greece out and has no mechanism to do it. Greece is too fractured to get out. From info late last week.
  11. Nipper - thanks for that. Theoretically Greek can default and stay in the EMU. It has part defaulted already. Do not expect Greece to leave if the political landscape changes. There is no rule to force a country out of the EMU. They never though it could happen. Who gets paid and who does not get paid is the real issue. Could Greece organise an exit if the political landscape changes? I think not. So they cannot be forced out and may not be able to get out even 49.9% want to. Something to think about. Greece has not got a great track record on majority votes in the last few years. Expect some banks to hit big hurdles that force the Troikas hand. Watch ratings agencies on this. Possible junk bond status? And the social impact is huge with up to 29% unemployment. Greece Mark II - If there is any log jam in Italy's government stopping financial advancement, red flag the issue. Dave
  12. I was out and about over the weekend. I was shocked at how many empty and due for lease shops are out there at the moment around Melbourne and regional Victoria. Even in the main shopping centres there were quite a few empty shops. In one leafy inner eastern suburb, Cafes outnumber everything else, so just how many cafes does a shopping strip need? Is this a national issue or just Victoria?
  13. Ananda A few USA figures out today and tomorrow. Do they know something we don’t know? Dave
  14. We are smack on the 5th year anniversary of GFC1. Things were shakey up until China hosted the Olympics then all hell broke loose 4 years ago prior to USA elections. The main issues ahead for Europe - if everything goes to plan - and the market behaves. http://t.co/gzEl5SGS http://www.economist.com/node/21560307?fsr...c/draghi_s_plan And this is only an initiative to solve financial issues. We will not see a political program until mid to late October and the report will only outline stronger financial controls from a central body, but it could shape stronger political unification if the financial pact survives. The political solutions are decades away.
  15. Grevillia I respect Bloomberg but I feel the author missed the point completely. The article describes a USA centric solution and applies it to Europe. Europe has financial, political and cultural divisions far greater than the issues of the U.S. and hence no model is relevant with a financial solution alone. The EU is a political and cultural conundrum illustrated by a financial crisis. No resolution of a financial nature will fix the underlying dilemma. The article uses a U.S.A. analogy of inequitable state revenues and sharing the wealth between the states. Europe has both financial, political and cultural divisions far greater than the issues of the U.S. For example, Spain has one federal government and a heap of regional governments and even in Spain, there is a significant cultural divide from one end of the country to the other. Amplify that across Europe and you can see the only solution is cultural and political unification and once this is achieved, the financial solution would most likely occur naturally. There is very little written about Europes financial crisis with a holistic approach, most is focussed on a financial imbalance. If only it was that simple. So the solution is political, addressing the cultural needs - Financial issues will grumble on until this is resolved. There is a plan, it has a life span of 10 years and it is in the infancy (6 - 8 weeks old) so stay tuned.
  16. Greece's outlook from S&P is now negative. Markets testing high points. August usually a wild ride in low volume. The Greece outlook is a little concerning on a number of fronts. Spain is just a hairs breadth from a junk rating and Italy close behind. With Greece’s outlook set to negative, the next Greece rating may force people’s hands elsewhere in the EU. The EU and Greece need to fix this (obviously). There is far too much talk of EMU exits as this becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. When you keep talking of a Plan B, Plan A is dropped like a hot scone. http://news.sky.com/story/970069/greek-out...and-p-downgrade
  17. Italians are angry at Germany and France. He said / She said stuff really. But Italians are where the PiGS were at a few months ago. Looks like a lot of pressure on Italy to get its house in order. Of the he said she said stuff. Italy claims - France and Germany cooking the books to hide true debt position. If equal rules applied to all then F and G should be required to suffer the same austerity pact. Music to Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece collective ears. Italy is in the denial to acceptance phase so expect some push back.
  18. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/06/...E87503O20120806 Shell moving money out of EU. Sette. A few cheap Italian cars coming onto the market soon.
  19. An interesting story and worth a read - as seen from a year 2021 point of view looking back to 2012. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchang...aved?fsrc=gn_ep Winners and losers - It could just happen this way. AND - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financi...lian-banks.html S&P downgrades 15 Italian banks
  20. EB - some doubters out there. However it must work !!! A fair bit of news out there including these items from the Economist blogs. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchang...euro?fsrc=gn_ep http://t.co/ADO4TVeb
  21. No QE3 - As reported on the radio this morning.
  22. http://www.economist.com/node/21559614 http://econ.st/MTZM6i As for the Plan A - 17 nations of 333 Million people have to agree on a solution. Worth the read. As for Spain's IBEX. 6/7/2011 it was 6738 - 24/7 5956 and it has jumped up over 10% since to 6800. And they say August will be volatile with low trade as a lot of people will be away from the market. Happy holidays.
  23. Flower, Topped out for today / this month / this year? If there is more QE I would have thought the AU dollar would go higher as the USD is diluted? Is QE considered a risk warning causing a down trend in commodities / AUD down? Currently there is a flight to USD on EU worries. Unsure of the duration of this flight to safety. Can Spain miss a junk rating? Can Greece keep paying its debts? I cannot look from this computer but what happened during QE2 - AUD / USD / commodities? It is a complex world.
  24. Things have been going well for Europe but Spain's borrowing costs above 7% again and the IBEX has taken a hit. The yield on ten year government debt is now at 7.22% I was hoping we were over the worst of it. A fair bit of unrest in the streets, well mannered and the numbers were very high. Europe is trying to fix the problem. It is all about timing.
  25. Loving the posts over the last few days. Keep them coming. Dave
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