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Everything posted by miningnut

  1. miningnut


    In reply to: mosaic1996 on Thursday 11/09/08 02:10pm Yes with a market cap of $650mil it's going to be much tougher to move the sp even when BG FID is announced within the next couple of months and AZA s'holders will start getting their ROC shares from 22Sep which is bound to put pressure on the sp.
  2. miningnut


    In reply to: NMR on Saturday 02/08/08 02:52pm Harsh comments indeed. And maybe your comments are not all correct. When NZO paid its dividend a couple of months ago, Australian residents received Australian franking credits as NZO had paid NZ tax on their NZ profits and because of the tax treaty between Aust & NZ. So it follows that if PPP paid a dividend from its NZ profits that it also could give Australian residents Australian franking credits as long as it has paid NZ tax on its profits. One might also challenge your comment that stated that PPP would not pay a dividend - profitable companies pay dividends and PPP is a very profitable company and so well might pay a dividend.
  3. miningnut


    In reply to: chookboy on Monday 04/08/08 06:32pm We won't be getting our $45 million just yet: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08...ection=business
  4. In reply to: octane44 on Saturday 02/08/08 10:13am Sorry Octane but I don't remember posting an article in such terms. I do believe the US office lost a lot of expertise when the VP of operations & the VP of exploration both left within a month of each other - that would be a bit over two years ago. We also have to accept that Ross Keogh put together the Llog deal - for me it was a very skinny deal at the time it was signed but due to the gas price rise has become a good deal - it has certainly saved them from making another large dilutive placement. I'm sure TF has never stepped aside from running any part of the business as he has the most to lose/gain from its success. I don't think you can blame Keogh more than Fern for the long run of dry holes as Fern would have the last say in any hole that is to be drilled. When American instos want to get out of a stock then they'll dump it at any price and I'm sure from the largish daily turnovers of late that there is more than a bit of this going on & who's to say it won't continue for some time yet. There are no upcoming catalysts to boost the stock - the next announcement will be the half yearly results at the end of this month - definitely no joy there - basically it's a very boring stock to hold at the moment.
  5. In reply to: mosaic1996 on Thursday 31/07/08 11:04am Hi Mosaic, The oil storage will be a positive for MP19/18 but we'll have to wait for production numbers this qtr to see how much of a positive. But can't get away from their falling production profile in the US and total lack of projects in the pipeline. Yes they're starting to look cheap based on Beibu Gulf and announcement of FID would be a good catalyst for the shareprice - there's always going to be some uncertainty with the constant delay in FID & without JD there is a bit more uncertainty - but you would hope that current management don't regard the Chinese as being too difficult to deal with on this project. I have liquidated 99%(not just an expression but actual)of my PSA holdings(personal & company) over the last two to three years & I haven't been afraid to sell sub-$1 of late. I wouldn't think I'll take up any of the LIO issue as there's now a lack of trust by me in Management even though the shares look undervalued but will wait until the last minute as we should get the result of the current two wells within the next week. I wouldn't be recommending LIO over PSA - there are much better investments such as NZO that actually make profits and pay dividends.
  6. In reply to: octane44 on Wednesday 30/07/08 11:33pm Octane, Their last three developments in the GOM have been economic failures - MP19, MP18 & Mobile Bay - be lucky to ever recover development cost at any of these. Even at $9 gas, you have to have a decent amount of gas to successfully develop it & you're right these guys can't find it anymore, let alone cost effectively develop it. And yes I'd guess that 5' of net pay in the Moonshine well is a lemon & probably won't recover drilling costs but as that's now a sunk cost, the low completion costs make it economic to develop but diddly squat.
  7. miningnut


    In reply to: arty on Tuesday 29/07/08 12:45pm And they've used that $17mil in capital raisings by spending $15.8mil in successful development costs enabling them to raise production to 1,000 barrels/day and remaining debt free. Their cash balance of $6mil at the beginning of the financial year has been maintained. On an EBITDAX basis it is easy to work out that they made $US2.4mil in the month of June. No debt. Looks cheap.
  8. In reply to: macduffy on Friday 25/07/08 07:11pm Hi Macduffy, TF will be 60 next year - so he'll probably just gracefully retire to his new $8 million Whale Beach house - I doubt whether he'll ramp-up his US GOM operations again - he's already lost a couple of fortunes in that pursuit - he'll be desperately hoping that ROC go-ahead and develop Beibu Gulf.
  9. In reply to: Right_for_me on Friday 25/07/08 01:47pm It's probably about fair value now given the Beibu Gulf potential but you'd have to wait for FID before fully assigning value to that project. US operations are essentially in wind-down phase - no new developments in the pipeline & little drilling contemplated - Viosca Knoll contemplated for drilling next April(but that carrot has been dangling for three or four years now), this is a partly stratigraphic play so not only will it be high cost but also high risk. They only have 34.5bcf left in reserves of which 7bcf will be produced this half-year followed by 10bcf next year - so at the end of 2009 reserves will be 17bcf at best(and they have been constantly downgrading reserves by 30%/pa due to over-estimates & water encroachment problems). Most of the money generated over the next 18 months will go towards debt repayments(US$67mil),China development costs,high lease costs & high admin costs including the running of two US offices & one Sydney office. They would have made a net loss for the six months to June,2008 - what is the point in investing in companies that can't generate profits? They didn't take advantage of recent high US gas prices as no new hedging was undertaken & now the gas price is tanking - down from $13.50 to less than $9.50 in just the last month. The US model of developing small gas plays just doesn't work anymore due to high development costs & I'm sure we've seen their last development in the GOM. Anyone(& most analysts do)that assigns value to their undeveloped leases in the GOM needs their head read IMO. It's no surprise that CommSec margin lending no longer cover the stock.
  10. If I happen to win this month's competition, I will be donating the money to Save the Children fund.
  11. miningnut


    A couple of other views from brokers: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=australia I'm not sure if I've got this URL correct.
  12. miningnut


    In reply to: sjlittle on Wednesday 09/07/08 10:24am Rimtalay on Hot Copper produced an article that I believe was in the Australian yesterday - in it, it quotes Deutsche Bank as forecasting that $50 million profit figure.
  13. miningnut


    In reply to: mogul on Tuesday 08/07/08 10:26pm The trouble is with the plunging nickel price & the high price of sulphur, analysts are now predicting MRE will only make $50 million in the current year 08/09 so they're actually on a forward P/E of over 20.
  14. In reply to: albion on Monday 30/06/08 11:45am They should earn good money in the second half of 2008 due to the current high gas prices and much lower hedging but will be lucky to break-even in the first six months due to hedging & dud wells in China & the US. There are also no new developments coming on stream in the US so it has a falling production profile & the latest ROC presentation says that the initial oil flows from BG will be only in the range of 10 to 15k rather than the 20 to 25k that has been peddled about previously by some JV partners.
  15. miningnut

    Cash Rates

    I use the CDIA as my bank account also - it has a cheque book facility whereas the CommSec Cash Management A/c does not - I don't write many cheques but there's always the odd one for a rights issue or investment subscription that don't take Bpay & the CommSec a/c won't take BPay. Also the CDIA is govt guaranteed if the world & CBA fell over.
  16. miningnut


    In reply to: mosaic1996 on Wednesday 18/06/08 02:09pm I've just read the UBS preso - JD must be a complete dag but he does know how to get his ideas across - there are some classic slides there but probably not company-related. I must go to one of his performances some day.
  17. In reply to: russellfji on Friday 06/06/08 10:22am It's sad to hear you've diluted my NZOs - I hope you'll be the exception.
  18. In reply to: mosaic1996 on Thursday 05/06/08 11:15am Hi Mosaic, They have hedged over 70% of production in the current qtr production of 4bcf at $7.80 compared with the current price of $12, hedged ~30% of Jul-Dec08 expected production of 7.5bcf at ~$8.50, hedged 40% of 2009 expected production of 10.5bcf at ~$8.50. 2007 production was 8bcf, 2008 production expected(by PSA) to be 15bcf, 2009 production forecast(by PSA) to be 10.5bcf. You should be able to work out from that that the current foregone revenue loss due to hedging is ~$20mil for 2008 & ~$15mil for 2009 based on the current gas price of $12. That $35mil would have gone a long way to financing our CapEx requirements for our 12.25% of the upcoming China development - oh well I suppose shareholders can stump up that amount instead.
  19. In reply to: octane44 on Thursday 05/06/08 12:54am You would have to think that the previous JV partners would have the right to back-in to any successful result at say, four times the well cost.
  20. In reply to: paddle on Thursday 29/05/08 04:01pm They might even become a nickel producer next year. It would seem that the selling from Top 20 shareholders has abated so could increase by a few cents quickly. It's a pity they didn't release an AGM slide presentation to highlight the increasing gold production.
  21. Interesting to see in the presentation on the hedging slide & forward production slide that they are predicting production of 10.5bcf for 2009 compared with 15bcf this year - a mere 30% drop. They'd better have success with their Triple Play & Moonshine wells next month otherwise....... It's like a dog chasing its tail........
  22. Hopefully the AGM presentation this coming Tuesday will stir up some interest here - their 80% owned Svartliden Swedish gold mine can produce at cash costs of $400/oz & hopefully the Sarvisuo lode at the Orivesi gold mine in Finland can produce at $500/oz - the company is capable of producing 80,000+ ozs in 2008 and potentially more next year if the Jokisivu openpit near their Vammala processing centre in Finland is developed later this year. Lots of good exploration ground in Finland and already have other potential sites to be developed. Their 30% interest in SBS's proven Koka deposit in Eritrea must be worth some $10mil dollars. Seems awfully cheap at a market cap of $66mil as there could be an operating cash surplus of half that amount this year. Little hedging(less than 10k ozs) & little debt($25mil in listed C/Notes). Opes Prime shareholding now liquidated & Top20 shareholders own over 90% of issued shares. Seems possible for sp to run 50% from 9c in short-order.
  23. In reply to: m muppet on Saturday 17/05/08 10:34am Muppet, You have to remember that two-thirds of this quarter's expected production is hedged at $7.80 but hopefully current gas prices can hold into next quarter when hedging is a lot less due to hurricane season.
  24. A very respectable quarterly with a couple of million more in revenue/EBITDAX and the dull wells cost $3million less. They should start to make some money in the second half of the year when they're clear from the bulk of their hedging. No oil only gas in the Moonshine well but at least it's being completed for production but only small bananas. Shareprice should be near its bottom now.
  25. I suppose we should estimate the quarterly production numbers: Production: 4.25 bcfe (3.44 bcfe Dec qtr) Net revenue: $36.5mil ($26.8mil Dec qtr) Unit price: $8.59/mcf ($7.60/mcf Dec qtr) EBITDAX: $30.0mil ($21.3mil Dec qtr) Anything less than this will be disappointing. And they still made a loss for the quarter due to three dud wells(cost $15mil), high amortisation cost and interest on the Llog purchase. With no wells to be drilled this current quarter, they might actually make a profit although they have hedged over 70% of projected production for the quarter at the super low price of $7.79/mcf (compared to current price of $10/mcf). Let's hope for good news on the Moonshine well - it's sorely needed.
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