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king louie

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  1. https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?i...Ph3ke92GA%3D%3D KL - game on!
  2. This was posted by ozpolarbear on HC. SC and will be a bit of an eye opener for many. TON could be the bargain of year as it's true value becomes realised. Many long term investors inc. myself have thought the SP was being held back as many competitors have a lot to lose from TON's pending success. Read on and you be the judge. ------- 1) Relevance of peer comparison Peer comparison is an accepted form of FA everywhere and even by brokers and analysts. On my part I continue to do it with the highest respect to our peer. I on my part have never put down our peer to which I’m comparing and have yet to even comment on their thread. So I don’t see how the comparison can cause any animosity but just mutual respect. I’ve explained the relevance of peer comparison in detail in point 5 of my June overview some months back http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/triton-yea...ost_id=15539086 2) SYR shares, market cap and diluted market cap I’ll go straight to comparing the figures. Google finance Number of Shares as per Google finance – 199 million shares Market cap as per google finance – AUD 630 million http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:SYR&am...hNouJ0gTZ2a6wAQ SYR presentation May presentation SYR shares as per May presentation – 165.2 million SYR options on issue as per May presentation – 6.3 million http://www.syrahresources.com.au/si...and Corporate Update Presentation 29May15.pdf August presentation - SYR shares as per Aug presentation – 165.2 million SYR options on issue as per Aug presentation – 6.6 million I can’t seem to find the August presentation on SYR site Aug presentation mentions 65 million new shares in recent capital raising of AUD 211 million I probably should be more aware of the exact figures but am too lazy to hunt for the same – So I’ll just take the google finance figure and assume options of around 6-7 million which means around 3-4% of the shares on issue. So diluted market cap as per google finance figures is approx. AUD 630 million + 3% of 630 million = approx. 650 million Cash from recent capital raising Note that they just had a cap raising of AUD 211 million. So, the market considered SYR worth that much more i.e. 650 million + 211 million = AUD 861 million Note that I am not referring to enterprise value here. For enterprise value, we would have to subtract and not add cash. This was a smart move by SYR to reduce the enterprise value and have a huge cash balance at the same time. It has come at a massive cost to shareholder value though, as shareholders have been crushed in terms of share price. The reason I am adding it is that if the market feels that SYR is worth that much more, then I see no reason why the market should not assign a similar value to TON So approx. AUD 861 million is the market cap I am considering for SYR as a target for TON to achieve. Note again that this is neither the diluted market cap nor the enterprise value, as mentioned above. 3) TON shares, market cap and diluted market cap Google finance Number of Shares as per Google finance – 377 million shares Market cap as per google finance – AUD 98 million http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:ton&am...rH1J8yo0gSl9bJo Figures as per half year accounts – http://www.tritonmineralsltd.com.au/wp-con...654_1473148.PDF Options – 23 million Performance rights – 15 million Roughly 38 million potential new shares or around 10% of shares on issue (377 million shares) So diluted Market cap would be AUD 98 million + 10% of 98 million = 98 million + 10 million = AUD 108 million So approx. AUD 108 million is the figure I am getting for TON 4) MNS shares, market cap and diluted market cap Google finance Number of Shares as per Google finance – 283 million shares Market cap as per google finance – AUD 142 million http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:MNS&am...pEdiH0gSznqGAAQ Presentation - MNS shares as per July presentation – 165.2 million http://magnis.com.au/article.php?id=101 Number of Shares as per presentation – 314 million shares Options – 209 million So options are approx. 2/3rd of the number of shares To simplify matters, I’ll just take the Market cap of 142 million as per google finance, round it up to 150 million and add 2/3 rd of 150 million (for the options). Final approx diluted market cap figure I get is AUD 250 million based on current market price of 42.5 cents Market price some time back was almost 60 per share which would give approx. diluted market cap of 50% more - i.e. approx. 375 million. Many MNS shareholders believe this was achievable 5) Summary of figures SYR – AUD 861 million - current share price AUD 2.66 per share TON – AUD 108 million – current share price 25 cents per share MNS – AUD 250 million – current share price 42.5 cents per share To reach SYR value, TON share price can go up to approx. 8 times current TON price – ie. 25 cents *8 = AUD 2 To reach MSN value, TON share price can go up to approx. 2.5 times more even at current share price after MNS recently fell. - ie. 25 cents *2.5 = 60 cents 6) TON has achieved all that SYR has and more Peer comparison was always one of the main basis of my TON fundamental analysis I wasn’t entirely wrong – My first analysis of TON was on March 7 Last close (March 6) of TON – 15.5 SYR – 4.72 TON is still way ahead SYR has never closed above 4.72 even once since my 1st analysis. It did touch 4.8 sometime back but then quickly fell immediately on same day. In fact the last time, SYR closed above 4.72 was 4.74 on September 12, 2014 or more than a year back. So peer comparison continues to be an important criterion for me, as it has worked for me in the past, and even for SYR shareholders who would have seen my analysis and acted accordingly. TON has pretty much achieved most of what SYR has and more in so many respects. My overview one month back is below http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ton-overvi...ost_id=15853778 Further points can be found in my recent comment history 7) Comparison to MNS Peer comparison to SYR was easy due to the facts of being neighbours, similar grade, purity, flake size, etc. I’ve never done a peer comparison to MSN due to MNS’s speciality being jumbo flake and several other different criteria. But, recently Ancuabe has come in the mix and as Proactive mentioned, Ancuabe graphite is believed to have the best flake size distribution in the world and the largest majority of jumbo and super jumbo graphite flakes. http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann...d-at...ost_id=16032061 As per @Pauldola calculation, Ancuabe could have 5 million tonnes of contained high grade graphite http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/tri...in-m...ost_id=16027745 I don’t know the basis of Paul’s calculation but he is probably much better than me at this mining technical related stuff. As per Magnis presentation, they have maiden JORC resource of 156 MT @5.2% TGC and over 8Mt of contained graphite http://magnis.com.au/article.php?id=101 So, taking Paul’s figure we get Ancuabe’s contained graphite =5/8 of Magnis contained graphite So Ancuabe potential diluted market cap = 5/8 of Magnis diluted market cap = 5/8 of 250 million = AUD 157 million That would be approx. 50% more than TON’s current diluted market cap of final share price of approx. 37.5 cents...for Ancuabe alone 8) Conclusion I’ve used many short cuts and approximate estimations as described above. So TON which is very comparable to SYR can reach a share price of AUD 2 based on comparison to SYR (Nicanda Hill) and 60 cents based on comparison to MNS (for Nicanda Hill) Comparing just ANcuabe to MNS would give share price of around 37.5 cents. Just looking at above, we can see that even share price of AUD 2.5 to AUD 3 is not completely inconceivable for TON Note that in above calculations, I have not even taken into consideration the benefits of vertical integration. I just passed a comment on Sunday (check my comment history) on a gold stock and ended my comment by saying that on pure fundamentals, we are likely in the comment years to have one of the worst financial crises in history – one to be remembered for generations to come. Macro factors have always been the only main concern that I have, and I have always let TONners know that, to balance my bullish comments on TON. In the event of a severe crisis, however, it makes more sense that investors would sell of more overvalued companies and not grossly undervalued ones like TON. All the above analysis is with the highest respect to SYR and MNS, and is definitely not intended to flame, bait, etc. in any way (My existing track record of not posting a single comment on those forums to maintain peace in the graphite forums speaks for itself). TONners - Please don't use this thread to disrespect SYR or MNS in any way - thanks in advance. I’m just presenting figures as part of peer comparison which is a recognized form of FA by brokers and analysts too. The purpose of the above was not to make an accurate calculation but just to get an approx idea. Does the value of AUD 2.5 to AUD 3 seem outrageous. Maybe. But then the current share price of 25 cents is even more outrageous, and shows just how grossly undervalued we are in the graphite sector. And that is all that I wanted to illustrate, which I hope I have done ------- http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/peer-compa...63#.VgG2X1omKrV KL - include the vertical integration and I see a SP of $6 by 2020.
  3. Here's my card http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/my-2c-on-s...92#.VT4kFXDXerU KL - any questions?
  4. Yeah that was a great year... Doubled down at 55c and sold out $1.35... Ahh the good Ol days when FA didn't exist....u snooze u lose!
  5. Our peer is no longer our peer... What I am announcing is FREE MONER TON WILL be rerated and the only question is who is going to say... Yep...your right...fundamentally TON should be at least half the SP of SYR...yep... I want some of that. TON WILL PRODUCE For the last year it has been beating all expectations and the only mistake it has made is to be a listed company because it's competitors and their supporters have been able to suffocate the SP... BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY....they WILL produce. Do th math...US$2b 20 year contract not locked in.. Can secure many more partners...and guess what. The largest high grade graphite and vanadium deposit in the world... These guys are having their door knocked in... (IMO) - I have to say that for the MODs. Make no mistake.... The world market of current and emerging suppliers/future are scrambling and TON is at the eye of the storm... What do I know?... What did the market know of the $2b deal...ml eft field... The company has given up on the market and they are just going to do their thing. I am going to make a S#it load of money on TON and am not selling a share until it is over $1 DYOR IS IT REALLY TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE? KL - Is it? ... No regrets.
  6. Topped up today... The disparity between TON and SYR is to appealing for a quick multi bag as the Triton rerate unfolds. I expect more great news to come soon to Bev th analyst for the well overdue market recalibration of the two. TON MAY WELL BE THE BHP of graphite and you heard it here first folks... DYOR... listen to me.. I'm already sold... But that's because I did my own research... KL - they don't come along that often.
  7. Apparently BB back in China so expecting more news soon not to mention resource upgrade - here's a great FA overview from Ozpolarbear - enjoy... this rerate has only just begun. FA update – I’ll try to put forth a brief overview of TON’s offtake vs SYR’s offtake – Please also read GMP report which compares not only offtakes but only companies as a whole. 1) Period – TON -20 years; SYR – 3 years. TON wins hands down 2) Pricing – Market price – Both SYR and TON will be selling at market price. SYR’s offtake mentions quarterly negotiations based on market price. SYR expects price to be between 1100 to 1600 USD from 2015- 2019 3) Offtaker – TON – YXGC; SYR – Chalieco, an affiliate of Chinalco While some people have been quick to come out of the woodwork to make all sorts of wild accusations against TON, no one seems to be focusing on any issues with SYR’s offtake partner. Credit to @tobyjack for figuring this out – losses of Chalco, fact that Chalco is named (with logo) in SYR 2014 presentation Refer Tobyjack’s comment here and the one a little later in the same thread– http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ton-offtak...ost_id=15036135 4) Floor price- TON – 1000; SYR none. TON wins hands down again It means that if graphite price falls to 700, TON will still get 1000, while SYR gets 700 5) $650 graphite negotiations – TON’s offtake came under some criticism that there would be negotiations if graphite price fell to 650. Same applies to SYR obviously; so not sure why only TON gets criticized. 6) Quantity per year – 100,000 tonnes per year; SYR – 80000 tonnes per year 7) Graphite offtaker- TON – Yes –YXGC is a graphite company as the “G†in the name clearly suggest. Graphite is thus in YXGC’s blood. Chalieco has far less interest in graphite,and seems more into engineering. 8) Restrictions on selling to others - TON has no such restrictions on sale, while SYR does. TON has the ability to race ahead with other offtakers during this time 9 Conclusion – For me all along, the difference in market cap between TON and SYR was the main factor. TON has been subject to some intense downramping over the last few days. Similar questions can be asked of SYR whose market cap is 6 times that of TON, but those criticizing TON are mysteriously absolutely silent on our peer's forum I tried to explain the downramping here some days back http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/recent-mov...ost_id=15034254 Of course, there could also be those trying to short TON. Please refer earlier comments in my thread where I mentioned some reliable posters, who are TON long termers. If you do not know their names, it is easy for their comments to get buried in the sea of downramping posts of people with vested interests. Prior to the offtake, I might have been content if TON’s market cap reached half (in short term) of that of SYR with more upside in the future. Post offtake, I fail to see why TON’s market should be anything less than equal, as of now itself. As I have always said, I have nothing against SYR, and would love SYR’s market cap to keep soaring, as that means TON has that much more ground which I feel it can also easily cover, over time. I have never criticized SYR (I’ve not even posted 1 comment on SYR’s forum till date) and wish SYR and SYR's shareholders the best. Some of the comments on TON recently have been shocking which are practically accusing TON and YXGC of making up stories. TON shareholders have not resorted to anything of this sort. TON shareholders have put forth all the positives on the TON forum itself. I don’t know about the short term, but the long term FA continues to get stronger. Please do thorough research of your own and believe no one (including me) All IMHO. Good luck, and hope you had a great Easter. http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/recent-mov...10#.VSsXe3JO74U KL - CHOMP!
  8. Apparently BB back in China so expecting more news soon not to mention resource upgrade - here's a great FA overview from Ozpolarbear - enjoy... this rerate has only just begun. FA update – I’ll try to put forth a brief overview of TON’s offtake vs SYR’s offtake – Please also read GMP report which compares not only offtakes but only companies as a whole. 1) Period – TON -20 years; SYR – 3 years. TON wins hands down 2) Pricing – Market price – Both SYR and TON will be selling at market price. SYR’s offtake mentions quarterly negotiations based on market price. SYR expects price to be between 1100 to 1600 USD from 2015- 2019 3) Offtaker – TON – YXGC; SYR – Chalieco, an affiliate of Chinalco While some people have been quick to come out of the woodwork to make all sorts of wild accusations against TON, no one seems to be focusing on any issues with SYR’s offtake partner. Credit to @tobyjack for figuring this out – losses of Chalco, fact that Chalco is named (with logo) in SYR 2014 presentation Refer Tobyjack’s comment here and the one a little later in the same thread– http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ton-offtak...ost_id=15036135 4) Floor price- TON – 1000; SYR none. TON wins hands down again It means that if graphite price falls to 700, TON will still get 1000, while SYR gets 700 5) $650 graphite negotiations – TON’s offtake came under some criticism that there would be negotiations if graphite price fell to 650. Same applies to SYR obviously; so not sure why only TON gets criticized. 6) Quantity per year – 100,000 tonnes per year; SYR – 80000 tonnes per year 7) Graphite offtaker- TON – Yes –YXGC is a graphite company as the “G†in the name clearly suggest. Graphite is thus in YXGC’s blood. Chalieco has far less interest in graphite,and seems more into engineering. 8) Restrictions on selling to others - TON has no such restrictions on sale, while SYR does. TON has the ability to race ahead with other offtakers during this time 9 Conclusion – For me all along, the difference in market cap between TON and SYR was the main factor. TON has been subject to some intense downramping over the last few days. Similar questions can be asked of SYR whose market cap is 6 times that of TON, but those criticizing TON are mysteriously absolutely silent on our peer's forum I tried to explain the downramping here some days back http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/recent-mov...ost_id=15034254 Of course, there could also be those trying to short TON. Please refer earlier comments in my thread where I mentioned some reliable posters, who are TON long termers. If you do not know their names, it is easy for their comments to get buried in the sea of downramping posts of people with vested interests. Prior to the offtake, I might have been content if TON’s market cap reached half (in short term) of that of SYR with more upside in the future. Post offtake, I fail to see why TON’s market should be anything less than equal, as of now itself. As I have always said, I have nothing against SYR, and would love SYR’s market cap to keep soaring, as that means TON has that much more ground which I feel it can also easily cover, over time. I have never criticized SYR (I’ve not even posted 1 comment on SYR’s forum till date) and wish SYR and SYR's shareholders the best. Some of the comments on TON recently have been shocking which are practically accusing TON and YXGC of making up stories. TON shareholders have not resorted to anything of this sort. TON shareholders have put forth all the positives on the TON forum itself. I don’t know about the short term, but the long term FA continues to get stronger. Please do thorough research of your own and believe no one (including me) All IMHO. Good luck, and hope you had a great Easter. http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/recent-mov...10#.VSsXe3JO74U KL - CHOMP!
  9. Agreed - seems to have been a T+3 trap sprung today...I'm ok with that lol. It's called the transfer of wealth... The machine churning and tightening the register. I wouldn't be surprised to see some more info released from the co. Clarifying recent news which should inturn assist the rerate. KL - all roads lead to Rome!
  10. Expecting some very big international money to move into TON this week with more announcements to follow. Game has changed and long capital about to get set for long returns IMO - enjoy. KL - TON WINS
  11. Hey Katie... We should get a room?
  12. It's on like Donky KongCHOMP Targets SYR v$3 TON ^$1.50 IMO KL - CHOMP Hi Katie x?
  13. I know why - Credit Suisse IS BIASED - any report from them isn't worth the paper its written on Syrah Resources substantial shareholder Credit Suisse increases stake Monday, February 11, 2013 by Bevis Yeo http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/compa...take-39385.html KL - Seriously people!
  14. Ahh been looking for you everywhere Katie... Dear SYR holders... I hold a lot of TON and I have a real hope that our two resources - SRY and TON - prove up the region as the new Pilbera of Graphite and Vanadium. As you know TON has recently JORCd numbers similar to SYR and regardless of the rhetoric BOTH resources have to goods. My main concern is that the SYR SP stays high and hopefully goes higher because at some point both companies are going be valued by the same ruler meaning TON will move a lot higher or SYR will move a lot lower or something inbetween. I hope SYR goes up which inturn would have a very positive effect on the TON SP, so my key message to you is hold tight or buy more SYR but only buy TON with spare cash if u want the leverage... To sell SYR to buy TON may reduce both co's full potential. As u can see here it's a real threat. http://investorintel.com/graphite-graphene...-jorc-resource/ ATB KL
  15. Funny wren....fact is I made good money and who would care if I sold, held or ate the stock...the only thing u should care about is that I called it early and it multi bagged. I'd pay a lot of $$$ for someone to give me tips like that champ... This ones on me buddy ....and I DO stand to make a Mil on it.
  16. Katie.... I don't make up this stuff... My first TON post on SS was on 17 March to give SS the heads up like I do with all my MULTI BAGGERS... I only visit here when the writing is on the wall as I know it's got smarter followers than my HC playground... On 17 March I wrote: "HC Forum suggesting CR 2x oversubscribed to private investors... could be an interesting open.... hoping they follow their neighbour SyR 2 yr chart from here. GLTA" Q. What price was TON on that day and when I say it'll be $1 by Xmas it's not a joke. We can.. And have been having our little lovers quarrels for a while and I am happy to continue to do so but surely there must be a point when you go...'oh bugger...he's right...TON is the real deal, it's going to be worth $$$$ and I if I wasn't so in love with SYR I COULD HAVE MADE MILLIONS' Feel free to use that. KL X
  17. Bbbzzzztttttt. ... Mate if you think that's how the market works might I suggest you try realestate? Big boys take big positions and then they spruiker them and when they r threatened they try and protect them and when they realise the ship is going down the pump it while they exit... Bank of America recently lightened up and I wouldn't be surprised if CR is currently doing the same. We all know TON has been held down while it's been accumulated so maybe CR HAS been buying them up....someone has??? Good luck KL
  18. oooOh I saw that... I think Melua sent it to me she was so excited :-) - she might have also mentioned that the other report.. the Credit Sussed report was very biased because they have a very large stake in SYR... yes.. the company now run by an ex-Shaw broker who also have a large stake in SYR... GO FIGURE!!!! is it a fair playing field... I don't think so BUT as I have said before... You can't stop the tide from coming in but you can drown trying! This is looking TON-TASTIC wouldn't you all agree???? (NAV - yep called that early for a ten bagger.... apparently it went belly up later in it's life but a 10 bagger all the same) KL - it's EZ!
  19. Blaa blaa blaa - this time next year TON will have a higher market cap than SYR. 50% or our current drilling results still to be JORCd from the northern higher grade areas and we'll have off takes and be gearing up for production. TON has a brilliant mgt team and is on fire and I have thouroughly enjoyed the last couple of days as the graphite sector has been thrown into termoil by the magnitude of TONs size and grade... TON has taken a hit with sector but punters coughs up in the sell down don't realise the sector sell down is because of TONs emerging monster high grade graphite and vanadium resource... I am long therm and I couldn't be happier! You can't stop the tide from coming in but you can drown trying. Kl - get on or get out of the way.
  20. Baa hhaa hhaaa Ms Melua... Your welcome and again totally wrong. TON will get off-take and race onto be very successful and you will be happy for me. KL Xxx
  21. I think you owe me an apology Katie??? https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/triton-mi...-020700892.html The writing is now on the wall... the facts are irrefutable and even though the market is slow to react... it will... as it does... will you come round too???? KL
  22. I bet you are :-) ... Not too late to sell all your SYR and get a 10 BAGGER on TON ? Expect it to run and run hard followed by off takes and more off takes but hoping glencore, hitachi and other preditors don't step in till we r in the $$$ Enjoy KL
  23. Wow Katie... That's a lot of scrambling posts... You must be feeling really threatened? With good reason of course but again... Let's settle petal as we r still 3 months from JORC with still half our results to come, who knows how much more will be uncovered but it's not about volume it's about quality, sure it would appear we have both in spades, u dig? ( you dig with spades.... Hmmm clever). Anywho... Still on the first floor with lots more info for Mr market to digest before he hands out the ribbons. GLTAH KL
  24. Have a nice day Katie :-) Nicanda Hill prospect will become one of the world’s largest multi-element project. HIGHLIGHTS:  Drilling results return stronger and more continuous graphitic mineralisation to the North, including 10m at 19.6%GrC within 142m at 10.2%GrC (GBNC0034).  Multiple high grade zones confirmed by drilling assays over a 3.2kms strike length.  Diamond drill hole (GBND0017) intersects 275m graphite mineralisation from surface, finishing in graphite mineralisation and remains open at depth.  Mulitple high-grade graphite drill intercepts across the Nicanda Hill mineralisation footprint of up to 25.2% graphite carbon (GrC) (GBNC0026).  Significant graphite interceptions with the weighted average graphite carbon, include o 142m continuous at 10.2% GrC (GBNC0034), including  36m at 15.2%GrC  10m at 19.6%GrC o 137m total at 10.1% GrC (GBNC0026), including  22m at 12.6% GrC  8m at 15.9%GrC o 144m continuous at 10.4% GrC (GBNC0029), incuding  20m at 15.5%GrC  Triton undertakes updated and expanded metallurgical sampling program in the North.  All drill holes continue to show substantial visable flake graphite and roscoellite from surface to end of hole holes, with most open at depth.  Costean trenching confirms continuous visible flake graphite and roscoellite at surface over a horizontal width of 220m across Nicanda Hill.  Overall drilling assay results at 6.5% cutoff, average 10.32% GrC  Initial metallurgical and petrographic testwork on-schedule for completion shortly. Love KL
  25. Have a nice day Katie :-) Nicanda Hill prospect will become one of the world’s largest multi-element project. HIGHLIGHTS:  Drilling results return stronger and more continuous graphitic mineralisation to the North, including 10m at 19.6%GrC within 142m at 10.2%GrC (GBNC0034).  Multiple high grade zones confirmed by drilling assays over a 3.2kms strike length.  Diamond drill hole (GBND0017) intersects 275m graphite mineralisation from surface, finishing in graphite mineralisation and remains open at depth.  Mulitple high-grade graphite drill intercepts across the Nicanda Hill mineralisation footprint of up to 25.2% graphite carbon (GrC) (GBNC0026).  Significant graphite interceptions with the weighted average graphite carbon, include o 142m continuous at 10.2% GrC (GBNC0034), including  36m at 15.2%GrC  10m at 19.6%GrC o 137m total at 10.1% GrC (GBNC0026), including  22m at 12.6% GrC  8m at 15.9%GrC o 144m continuous at 10.4% GrC (GBNC0029), incuding  20m at 15.5%GrC  Triton undertakes updated and expanded metallurgical sampling program in the North.  All drill holes continue to show substantial visable flake graphite and roscoellite from surface to end of hole holes, with most open at depth.  Costean trenching confirms continuous visible flake graphite and roscoellite at surface over a horizontal width of 220m across Nicanda Hill.  Overall drilling assay results at 6.5% cutoff, average 10.32% GrC  Initial metallurgical and petrographic testwork on-schedule for completion shortly. Love KL
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